Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Frontier Dev LSE:FDEV London Ordinary Share GB00BBT32N39 ORD 0.5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -15.00p -1.31% 1,130.00p 116,451 16:35:27
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
1,140.00p 1,150.00p 1,175.00p 1,120.00p 1,130.00p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Software & Computer Services 34.19 0.29 9.60 117.7 437.8

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Date Time Title Posts
16/10/201815:52Frontier Developments - Elite gaming.....3,722

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Frontier Dev Daily Update: Frontier Dev is listed in the Software & Computer Services sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker FDEV. The last closing price for Frontier Dev was 1,145p.
Frontier Dev has a 4 week average price of 986p and a 12 week average price of 816p.
The 1 year high share price is 1,880p while the 1 year low share price is currently 816p.
There are currently 38,741,068 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 167,669 shares. The market capitalisation of Frontier Dev is £437,774,068.40.
mark4231: dsct, I don't think your figures are too far off. If the share price is based off 17/18 then the share price is too expensive. If the share price is based off what *I think* they will achieve for 18/19 and later years then the share price is very cheap.
mark4231: Yes, quite possible China regulators/Tencent news has affected FDEV today - perhaps unfairly as China not a big market for FDEV at the moment I think (unless China potential built into the share price?). FDEV share price seems quite resilient at this level, famous last words. FY18 results statement on Wednesday.
hastings: Last month I went along to the opening of the new Frontier HQ and subsequently wrote the piece below. I was in two minds as to whether to post those thoughts here, wondering if there would prove enough of interest. Anyway, suffice to say I'm giving it a go, not least as a few people now have asked if I would do so and I have updated a couple of aspects in the write up. Hopefully, it may prove of interest to others and I will be following up in due course with another piece, most likely for the Cambridge News business section once again. No questions on the below though please, I'll leave others to stick to their own conclusions, which I know do differ! ---Shareholders in Frontier Developments can perhaps be forgiven for being somewhat mystified by the recent drop in it's share price, which comes on the back of a raft of positive news. The shares, which not too long ago hit £18.00, have recently retraced sharply to a current £10.50p.  Hopefully, the majority of those who who have been following the Frontier story as long as I have remain well into profit, although some may understandably have elected to take a bit off the table.  So, what is behind this recent rout that has seen various theories touted around on the likes of the ADVFN message board thread, which includes the notion that Frontier has been eyeing a placing.  Fortunately, I recently took up an invite to attend the official opening of Frontiers new HQ on the Cambridge Science Park, which proved ideal to catch up with CEO David Braben, CFO Alex Bevis and the man spearheading the animation Jonny Watts, who has been with the company twenty odd years now.  For me, as I was with a Cambrdige News colleague who was conducting the interview work on the day it presented an ideal opportunity to mingle with some of the 380 workforce that are now housed in this massively impressive building and who were enjoying the sun with cold beers, ice creams, burgers and pitza's.  The atmosphere was very much akin to a carnival, the ambiance one of enjoyable enthusiasm, where some undoubtedly happy looking people took time out to enjoy the afternoon, as Mr Braben prepared to cut the ribbon,  If this all sounds a bit too good to believe and appears to by-pass the issue that is burning for some holders, let me return to the matter in hand, as I asked Alex Bevis directly about the recent share price activity.  Bevis explained that they were made aware that there had been a short in place, which although nothing of great size was nevertheless unwelcome, but that it is all part of the market. There had also been a bit of selling from a few very long term holders who had decided to take something off the table so to speak, which is of course nothing different than the rest of us would do.  Frontier I suspect would most certainly come out and say something if anything was untoward and on that front, everything looks as positive as the recent news has conveyed, the key players here all sounding very upbeat.  My own view is perhaps the share price and market cap did get a bit ahead of itself providing for that short, whilst the recent retrace has probably fueled some retail profit taking too.  That said, let us get this right, in that this is no loss making blue sky jam tomorrow stock, rather, it is a quality fast growing, cash generative and profitable company with big aspirations for the future.  Bevis again reiterates that as annoying as the recent fall is, they are very much looking to the long term and delivering on their business plan and that is all going very well. He points out the respected Oppenheimer Funds recent upping its stake and adds that there are other funds out there who are now sitting up and taking notice of the company as things progress further.  Presumably retail shareholders are also taking a similar view, although again, eyeing some of the posts on ADVFN it would appear a few are attempting to trade FDEV, which given the limited free float appears a dangerous exercise.  For the record here, I have taken a contrary opinion to the recent market trend and now averaged up, buying some further shares that has taken my average closer to the £2.00p mark. Not a hard decision for me to make, particularly as the shares now stand on forward PER of circa 24 which may well prove conservative given the most recent excellent news.  Braben told me in between talking about gardens and the bumps on the Cam that he is absolutely delighted with the recent JWE numbers which he says is an absolute testament to an excellent team.  And what good reading those numbers make, blowing the early forecasts for this game out of the water. Remember, the brokers originally penciled in around a million unit sales for the whole year on the JWE game before upgrading that more recently to 1.8m. In both cases, particularly the first, I wrote previously in the Cambridge News that I thought they were conservative and that Frontier could surpass these by a margin. So, the revelation that it had already achieved 1 million sales in just five weeks is an amazing result.  Let's put that into some kind of context, where both Elite Dangerous and Planet Coaster took more than 9 months to achieve the same figure.  Of course, JWE was launched in conjunction with the film, so naturally one would expect a decent enough result. However, the number has clearly surpassed Frontiers and the brokers expectations which translates into circa £40m of revenue already being booked in just a matter of weeks.  Liberum had estimated in its last upgrade £59m of sales for JWE being achieved in the full year, which also now looks low with plenty of time ahead to ramp up further.  Although historically summer is not the best of times for game sales, kids will no doubt have been visiting cinemas across the globe through the peak holiday period/s which taking in the new Jurassic film should have further fueled the interest in JWE.  Then, we have the Christmas period to come, which is the real stellar time for the sector, providing for plenty of potential going forward.  Looking back to last month the latest game remained on Steam's platinum best seller list which must surely bode very well for the remainder of the year.  The third franchise aside, the other two are also continuing to perform well with Elite Dangerous now in its fourth year having enjoyed a record year in revenue which further proves that the model of building longevity within these games truly works.  Having enjoyed an extensive tour around the building it is clear that Braben and co are building a seriously big operation here, with aspirations of surpassing its current accepted position as the UK's number one gaming company into a global major.  380 people are housed in this new ultra modern building and there is ample room to house a further 150 on a floor that at present is empty.  Bevis says that they could easily have leased this out to another party if they had wished, but given they are aggressively recruiting, the preferred option is to keep it ready for its own use.  Braben also tells me that acquisitions are very much on the horizon as they are now generating ample cash that can be put to good use to further drive growth. Just what form that may take is anyone's guess, but suffice to say, whatever Frontier buys will have been well thought out and will be a benefit to its growth strategy.  I also had to attempt to tease a bit more out of David on the WeGame platform developed by Frontiers major shareholder TenCent which has been described as a forthcoming rival to Steam.  The CEO understandably wouldn't be drawn, but my reading from speaking with him is that Frontiers games will in due course be available on this platform which would provide for a further opening to the massive Chinese market.  Pleasingly, Braben tells me that its games could sell on both platforms without any conflict, which is good news going forward.  Importantly though, it is worth noting the company's wider comments to me in that they are happy to add that China is already very big for them. They go on to point out that it is already doing very well in China via the Steam platform, where China features as the no.2 and no.3 country for Planet Coaster and Jurassic World Evolution respectively. Wegame is therefore an interesting incremental channel into China and clearly not a first entry point. Having taken the tour it is a truly impressive set up where all aspects of the games development to completion and sales are able to interact under one roof. There is even an extremely very smart sound proof studio room where the Dinosaur roars can be perfected and other sounds tweaked for perfection.  Then there is the Space Bar, where staff chill out alongside an excellently equipped canteen, the people that work at Frontier certainly being well looked after.  Talking of the next franchise all the key players sing from the same hymn sheet in that they will announce this when the timing is absolutely right.  There is no hint of any delays as some on ADVFN have hinted, more I would hazzard a guess, that the company is perhaps only permitted to announce when its partner such as Universal with JWE is also comfortable to go.  More importantly, Watts says they have an extensive pipeline in place which will keep the ball rolling on, new games coming through supported by the existing one's that continue to evolve and generate serious revenues.  I would expect another upgrade to come through in the coming months as it really looks given the revelation last months numbers that forecasts will be surpassed.  It is certainly not fanciful to see the current top end 2019 total revenues of £88m being beaten and heading closer to £100m, which in turn would deliver increased profits and EPS that would then come out close to say 50p. The latter figure would bring the PER down to 20 at the current price, a figure that looks highly attractive for a fast growing cash generative and cash rich play with a bright future.  Back to the fourth franchise, it looks via the broker/s very much as though we will hear something firm on this front early next year which will then be followed by a further three to four games in subsequent years.  This would, within two/three or four years provide for repeatable revenues in excess of £100m per year, which will most likely be boosted by complementary revenue streams.  It is easy for some investors to get hung up on the daily swings and movement in relation to the share price, particularly if you bought at a higher price. But, the Frontier story is only just beginning to gather momentum and with more games and new initiatives set to follow through, it may prove wise to sit back and take a more long term view. Braben is very relaxed and rightly points out that when JWE was released, within a few weeks people were eagerly asking what the next game will be and that was before those excellent JWE numbers were released. At present, the markets are somewhat choppy and growth stocks that have enjoyed a good run are often the first in the firing line for a pullback. That may however provide a good entry point for those looking to invest for the first time, or, as I have done, top up at what I view as an oversold level in the bigger picture.
endion: What time was the almost million sell? I dont see it reoprted on lse, it may be delayed. I thought Id share a post from a user called MB60 over on lse, he had some interesting points on the share price movement at the time which is still relevant: "I think there are a few questions that need an answer .... Why did FDEV sign up a joint broker in August 2017? Were they unhappy with Finncap and as of now which of these two brokers are are advising Frontier on the SP, and it seems strange that Finncap is the only broker mentioned here hxxp:// Quote from "Frontier Developments plc (AIM: FDEV, "Frontier"), a leading independent creator and publisher of video games, is pleased to announce the appointment of Liberum Capital Limited ("Liberum") as its Nominated Adviser and Joint Broker with immediate effect." I also think you have to figure out who the winners and losers are (or have been over the past 6 weeks) Before I go to far I still think the current fair value of the share price is somewhere between 1300-1400 So the winners so far are BennBridge and who ever is handling the share price (Finncap) they make money on volume and volume has been pretty good since mid May, and that includes day trading and those 'after hour' (closed door) trades  As for those pesky 'day time' small trades .... my guess is either they are the small reward or loss on split second larger day trades, or BenBridge has discovered that if they keep pounding the the share price with as many trades as they can the share price simply breaks. (it has to recalculate it's value on every trade and if someone is messing with the spread then of course the value will change) Another possible ...I'm also guessing the 'shorter' is trying to put 'fear' (or confusion) into the share price ... they are trying to get investors to sell (by choice rather than stop loss) since it seems most of the stop losses have been used up. Remember Shorters will use every trick in the book to drag the share price down."
endion: Same unusual behaviour we have seen in the last half hour of trading on multiple days during this downward trend. It was suggested to me to look up "painting the tape". A link to that here: What it basically comes down to is an illegal practise that manipulates the share price just before close. It is used for a variety of reasons, not only to push the share price down but also up. In illiquid stocks this method is particularly effective. With so many trades going through so quickly, the share price has to react to recalculate the price, offers and bids need to catch up and dont always manage it. So if you are the one throwing all the trades onto the market, you can jump in and force the share price in the direction you want whilat others are trying to figure out whats going on. Or those trades could be dozens of people just deciding to take a 9 share punt at the end of the day. All at the same time. Having looked closer at the last half hour, i would hazard a guess that most of the small trades are sells and not buys as advertised.
endion: Once again the delayed large buys all add up to circa 60k shares, the same amount as bennbridges increase in short position. To put this in perspective the two deferred trades that seemed to cripple the share price yesterday were 16k each, totalling half of bennbridges extra short. Seeing how exaggerated share price movements can be on this stock due to a small free float, i wouldnt be suprised if they were the main reason for this share price movement. Obviously other sellers were in the mix, but selling 60k shares each day will have a large impact on this share price. DYOR.
endion: It's a good strategy to make it look like to share price is going nowhere far. For example, if you said that the 24 hour period where the share price was logged for the day was around 11am, the share price would look like it was rising in quite a healthy way, with dips during the day before a rise back up to close. Instead what we see, and what the seller is trying to manipulate for psychological reasons, is a rise in the day and a fall towards the end, thus having the marked share price going from low to low, rather than high to high. Having people think the share price is going down, up, down is better if you want to keep it low, than if people think it goes up, down, up. In reality it's the same thing. But psychology plays heavily on stocks and traders know this.
mark4231: I agree nimbo, I'm glad I'm not the only one exited! I really didn't expect the pre-order to be on page 1 of the top seller list until maybe the week before release. Instead, it has consistently been there for the last week now and we still have just under 5 weeks to go to release. The response on social media etc has been great and I'm sure there is still a lot more for FDEV to reveal in the coming weeks building up the hype even more. I think it's going to do way better than Planet Coaster (that did just fine) and in addition JWE is available on PS4 and Xbox One too. Plus, we've got the announcement of the next franchise still to come too of course. From what I recall the FDEV share price was pretty flat up to the release of Planet Coaster and then took off about 2 weeks after release - it seems to have started earlier this time around. I'm also looking forward to playing the game. It's not my sort of thing really but it looks like loads of fun.
mark4231: It doesn't take much for the FDEV share price to move up or down significantly. I assume the buying today is in anticipation of the flood of news expected a week from today regarding JWE.
culford: PC is having a Steam good winter sale, consistently in the top 5 and often 2nd as now. This is the biggest period of volume sales in the year and to be in this position whilst only discounted by 15% (most games are 33%-67% discounted) is very encouraging. PC is starting its 6th week of full release and it has probably sold 1/2 million games already. Frontier's previous game in this genre, RCT3, sold >10m units. The market is now much bigger and with such a positive reception (reviews >90% positive), it would be surprising if PC did not follow suit. There will also be paid for DLCs to follow as this game is developed over the next 5 or so years. If one took this franchise on its own and assumed, with DLCs, that it generates £30 each over 10m purchasers (core game's price will probably reduce to c£15 in due course), then that is £300m gross, or c£150m net after VAT and distribution costs. That is 50% more than the market value of FDEV, which also has Elite Dangerous (perhaps of similar value over a longer period), £10m in cash, an experienced management team and skilled workforce, the unique Cobra software and many more games to come!! In other words, PC on its own probably warrants a FDEV share price of 450p and the other assets the same again. Not sure what Bamboo thinks of chart now, but this has plenty more upside in 2017 if underlying value is now c900p.
Frontier Dev share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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