Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Frontier Dev LSE:FDEV London Ordinary Share GB00BBT32N39 ORD 0.5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +25.00p +1.79% 1,420.00p 1,420.00p 1,425.00p - - - 39,976 16:35:12
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Software & Computer Services 37.4 7.8 22.7 62.6 484.40

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Date Time Title Posts
19/1/201817:20Frontier Developments - Elite gaming.....1,397

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Frontier Dev Daily Update: Frontier Dev is listed in the Software & Computer Services sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker FDEV. The last closing price for Frontier Dev was 1,395p.
Frontier Dev has a 4 week average price of 1,252.50p and a 12 week average price of 957.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 1,537.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 270p.
There are currently 34,112,529 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 35,281 shares. The market capitalisation of Frontier Dev is £484,397,911.80.
adamb1978: Thanks for that hpcg. And 3m would be their total units shipped, including their other 2 titles so the market forecsts look very low. Would be great if there were some comments in the upcoming interims about their plans to get to the point where they have 1 launch per year. They alluded to this previously but once they're at that point, FDEV will look very cheap. For example: - assume 10m games sold per year once they are truly multi-title. Maybe in 2020? - that makes revenue around £200m p.a. - 40% ebit margin (in-line with other gaming companies) get you to £68m bottom line - Puts EPS at 180p, and PE of 8x based on current share price ....and it would be throwing of piles and piles of cash Adam
compnews1: The Statement made by FDEV does not sound positive for the H2 result. OK new games coming but that may have been factored in the share price At the end of the day, what profit does it make!. Too expensive share price
mark4231: My thought is similar to nimbo1's. From watching the Steam Top Sellers, I suspect that Planet Coaster is doing very well (and Elite: Dangerous not so bad either). Then JWE will ramp up before its release next summer plus, perhaps, an announcement of the next game so this time next year the share price will be far higher than it is now - all in my own, gut feeling, opinion.
mark4231: Thanks rivaldo. I like how FDEV is covered by "we are reassured by the fact that we consider these businesses amongst the highest quality investments in the portfolio and we are optimistic about the future prospects for these companies. Whilst some of these names have experienced extraordinary share price gains lately, our belief is that these are companies that can continue to deliver exceptional levels of revenue and profit growth." I agree and is why I remain fully invested here.
simon gordon: makw61, Yes, the post on VLG is thought provoking and it is good to read analysis which isn't caught up in the euphoria of the meteoric share price rise. I know little of the game scene, just saw some catalysts and hopped on board at 200p. The one fact that did ring true in al101uk's post is how difficult it is to build a successful franchise from scratch and that the two games FDEV have in the market didn't come from nowhere. At what price is JWE priced in?
mark4231: I am very very tempted to top up and the only thing stopping me is that FDEV is already a significant percentage of my portfolio since I have been holding from below 270p. I'm not surprised at today's dip, the daily vertical rise couldn't continue for ever! We're only back where we were 48 hours ago so the share price I think is pretty solid. I don't expect any particular surprises from the upcoming results and see the share price more gradually drifting up over the next few months. Once the Jurassic World: Evolution marketing ramp up begins though I think we'll back to take off territory. This time next year I'm expecting £20+. All, IMHO.
mark4231: I first invested in FDEV in the early days of Elite: Dangerous when the company said they were going down the self publishing model. I then invested more soon after Planet Coaster was launched and it looked like it was going to be a great success (which it has been). Now my holding has become a larger percentage of my whole portfolio than I'm particularly comfortable with but looking at it, the investment case at the current level seems to still be there with the recent Tencent investment, the announcement of the Jurassic World franchise, greater exposure of the company in general and that they're already planning future franchises. So, I'm going to hold tight. The current share price seems to value the company with a quite safe and conservative expectation of future sales. However, there is great potential - in my opinion - for franchises to really take off. After all, over 4 million people are playing a game which basically just involves driving a truck around (Euro Truck Simulator 2 - hxxp://, Elite: Dangerous with trucks - I think space craft are cooler! The Jurassic World game has amazing potential - FDEV won't be developing some lazy spin off game to make a bit of money but a game which will stand alone by itself and I expect will interest people who aren't necessarily that into the films - social media, YouTube etc coverage can trigger purchases and I can see community involvement (particularly Steam Workshop) pushing the game to another level. "Bioengineer dinosaurs, build research and containment facilities, & overcome challenges in Jurassic World Evolution." Sounds fun to me. :-)
rivaldo: Yep, this is terrific news. Tencent's investment at almost no discount to the share price is good in itself, but the opportunities it will open up are massive.... I suspect FDEV may now become one of "those" stocks where the price races away given the potential..... Https://
culford: GI Your comparative valuations are very interesting and, as you say, make FDEV look very cheap. If these early stage quoted games companies are being valued at 8-10x revenues, that would be £300m-400m for FDEV (revenue run rate c£40m), or 900p to 1200p per share. On the face of it that looks very high. However it reflects the trends that Mckw61 kindly pointed out in post 183 above. The easing of distribution has increased the value of content makers like these games publishers. They are creating franchises with long term value and receiving much of value that previously went to Nintendo, Atari, Microsoft (Xbox) or Sony Platstation. In a post above I crudely valued the PC franchise at £150m, or 450p per FDEV share on its own. To set out my crude forecasts in a little more detail, taking into account a franchise profile as set out in post above for Planet Coaster: 2 million games sold at gross value £30 each = £60m Years 1 & 2 3 million games sold at gross value £20 each = £60m Years 2 & 3 5 million games sold at gross value £10 each = £50m Years 4 & 5 2 million DLC1 sold at gross value £10 each = £20m Years 2 & 3 4 million DLC2 sold at gross value £10 each = £40m Years 3 & 4 6 million DLC3 sold at gross value £10 each = £60m Years 4 & 5 Total = £290m over 5 years The PC franchise would thus generate £290m gross over 5 years. Realistically there will be sales through this period so lets discount all sales by 15% - giving gross sales of £246.5m. FDEV's average sales tax is 12%, so the net revenue it might receive over 5 years would be £220m under above scenario. If one then deducts 30% distribution costs, that would leave £155m for PC's franchise vale to FDEV or 450p per share. If one applies similar maths to ED one can see how a sales multiple of 8x and a value of 900p could be reached. As FDEV has pointed out, analysing the company on 6 monthly or even annual cut off points can be misleading due to timing of launches etc. Thus H1 2016/7 should look good with 2 weeks of launch of PC included. Likewise H2 will look good with a full 6 months of two games; ED and PC. It could be spectacular if PS4 launch is included - but that may fall into H1 2017/8. Overall, market needs to look through this and decide whether the company has created a long term franchise or not. The successful launch of PC (>400k units sold in first 5 weeks) and c2m unit sales of ED sold suggest FDEV has two franchises and share price is beginning to wake up to this. Incidentally GI, the £220m forecast net Planet Coaster sales for FDEV over 5 years averages out at £44m per annum which is significantly higher than your forecasts. Perhaps I have had too much brandy?
culford: PC is having a Steam good winter sale, consistently in the top 5 and often 2nd as now. This is the biggest period of volume sales in the year and to be in this position whilst only discounted by 15% (most games are 33%-67% discounted) is very encouraging. PC is starting its 6th week of full release and it has probably sold 1/2 million games already. Frontier's previous game in this genre, RCT3, sold >10m units. The market is now much bigger and with such a positive reception (reviews >90% positive), it would be surprising if PC did not follow suit. There will also be paid for DLCs to follow as this game is developed over the next 5 or so years. If one took this franchise on its own and assumed, with DLCs, that it generates £30 each over 10m purchasers (core game's price will probably reduce to c£15 in due course), then that is £300m gross, or c£150m net after VAT and distribution costs. That is 50% more than the market value of FDEV, which also has Elite Dangerous (perhaps of similar value over a longer period), £10m in cash, an experienced management team and skilled workforce, the unique Cobra software and many more games to come!! In other words, PC on its own probably warrants a FDEV share price of 450p and the other assets the same again. Not sure what Bamboo thinks of chart now, but this has plenty more upside in 2017 if underlying value is now c900p.
Frontier Dev share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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