Revolution Bars Share Discussion Threads

[buttcoin] 01/8/2021 17:48

0 0 3 hTtps://www.pinsentmasons.com/out-law/guides/rent-recovery-and-protection-commercial-landlords Landlords can go get the dosh now

[simmsc] 01/8/2021 15:24

That's good. We've come up with a similar number via different routes (as I've worked it out from their accounts). So now we're looking at a company that has sorted it's finances (debt) out, covid has forced them to weed out some loss making venues and streamline costs, so when revenues go back to normal (86% of 2019 is pretty good to start off with) they should go back to a positive eps \ p&l. Working capital has been a struggle for the last 6 years, but that didn't put investors off before (so I'll ignore that - maybe a sector thing). What will help is if they can improve the free cashflow numbers. That will comfort investors and increase chances of a dividend going forward.

[puzzler2] 01/8/2021 14:58

RNS of 1 July says net debt of £5m, so I'm assuming that it's still around this level.

[boozey] 01/8/2021 12:09

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jul/31/reopened-nightclubs-in-england-face-twilight-zone-as-covid-keeps-customers-away Not sure this article is correct...

[simmsc] 01/8/2021 10:53

Good insight puzzler. I've taken a closer look at it now. Do you see net debt at about 6m at the moment (27m at Dec 20 minus the 21m raised a couple of months ago?).

[bxrdi] 01/8/2021 10:18

Before covid the share price was around 60p and before this dilution happened the share price was 35p. 35p down to 21p, so surely we could still see an increase up to what that 60p equivalent is now. If anyone gets my gist. The equivalent would be around 33p.

[puzzler2] 01/8/2021 08:54

buttcoin - joined ADVFN on 29 July 2021 for the specific purpose of rubbishing RBG. Complete idiot - filtered.

[buttcoin] 01/8/2021 08:53

hxxps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/thousands-of-heads-will-roll-warns-revolution-bars-boss-t8nmtpkq8

[buttcoin] 01/8/2021 08:49

hTtps://www.pinsentmasons.com/out-law/guides/rent-recovery-and-protection-commercial-landlords Landlords can go get the dosh now

[puzzler2] 01/8/2021 08:12

Back in late 2017 sentiment took the share price above 210p, which gave RBG a market cap then of £106m. Pre-Covid in FY 2020 net bank debt had been reduced by £6.5m due to the business' strong cash generation, but the business is leaner now and the worst performing units have been disposed of. Furthermore the business has already recovered to 86% of pre-Covid levels. So post 19 July, freedom day, cash generation could be better and at say £8m, if this is equivalent to net profit, at a £100m market cap that equates to a P/E of 12.5, so not beyond the realms of possibility. I do agree though - set a target share price and sell.

[buttcoin] 01/8/2021 08:09

lot of back rent, £30m??? to pay have they paid over the PAYE and VAT to hmrc yet rate holiday ends soon, on 65 units that a lot of folding

[simmsc] 01/8/2021 00:55

A doubling of price would take this to a 100m mkt cap when it was a 35m mkt cap before covid. Enjoy the rise in price and then hit the sell button as fast as you can when it gets there ... Because i can't see them adding 3 additional floors into each venue to house a tripling of drunk guests lol

[puzzler2] 31/7/2021 20:38

Those of us who have been commenting positively about RBG have given the reasons for doing so i.e. it's a beaten up stock as a consequence of Covid, but its finances are in good order following a hugely dilutive placing, it's reported that post its recent reopening that trading has been strong and a number of us have speculated that post 19 July trading will have taken a step-change forward following the 20-year olds' likely desire to get out again to have fun. Yes, talking one's book in terms of jistifying an investment decision, but stock promoting and pump and dump - NO.

[paulypilot] 31/7/2021 20:31

Of course people talk their own book. That is logical - if you own a stock, then you think its prospects are better than other stocks. Not a problem at all, if people intend holding. Where some people cross a line, is talking up a stock, whilst selling or intending to sell. That is inexcusable, and such liars are quickly found out, because they contradict themselves.

[buttcoin] 31/7/2021 20:02

lot of back rent, £30m??? to pay

[glavey] 31/7/2021 16:17

Talking One's Book The act of promoting a stock one owns in order to entice others to buy it. This would in turn benefit one's own investment portfolio. Stock Promotions Stock promotions are carried out when an individual or a group wants to hype a stock. If the promoter’s tactics work, and more people buy the stock, the value of the stock will go up. When this happens, the stock promoter sells their shares. Pump-and-Dump A manipulative scheme that attempts to boost the price of a stock or security based on false, misleading, or exaggerated statements.

[john09] 31/7/2021 12:40

I think this is a great pure play late night bar and club stock with 66 venues. There probably isnt a better one. It’s clear SCSW is about to get behind it too and its a great unlocking stock. The one downside for me is that the market cap is already up to £53m following capital raises. It’s also hard to trade in any volume A spike to 30 - 40p looks likely / very easy

[paulypilot] 31/7/2021 11:30

Only one site, I know, but out of curiosity I walked past Revs in Bournemouth at 21:45 last night - absolutely heaving, with a queue outside to get in. Mind you, everywhere looked & sounded busy. Seems much busier than during the summer re-opening last year. Also the data is now very encouraging. Ignore case numbers, as they don't matter now that most people have been vaccinated. Of people who have been double-vaccinated, there have only been about 220 deaths (per Sunday Times), probably many with serious health issues before covid (not disclosed in the article). Of that 220, only 4 deaths of double vaccinated were under 50, and almost certainly had other serious health problems. The young have worked out they are not at risk, so want to party. Who can blame them? Revs likely to have a bonanza between now & Xmas. Could even go net cash, given that most of the existing debt has been cleared with 2 very dilutive placings. For shareholders, the trick is to massively increase position size when they're dirt cheap & everyone is negative, then let them go when the price shoots up on positive trading updates & sentiment. Also, if we stand our ground in the placings (could buy at same or cheaper level in the market afterwards), averaging down heavily, then all it needs is a (say) 50% subsequent rise, to recoup all previous losses and more. This point is made well in The Art of Execution - don't be a rabbit, stuck in the headlights. Either sell up and walk away, or average down at the lows and get your money back. Obviously that only works with good, cash generative businesses like this one. Going forwards, at the last placing, the CEO indicated the new funds would allow them to buy about 10 good new sites on great deals, refurbish the old sites that need it, and of course rather glossed over (!) it got the bank off the hook. Another factor is that the company now has plenty of liquidity if, heaven forbid, we get another resurgence of covid (worst case scenario is if it mutates to becoming resistant to the vaccines). Rents reduced thanks to mainly consensual deals, plus the CVA dealt with stragglers where agreement couldn't be reached. So all the loss-making sites now gone. Hence this is a better & more profitable business after the pandemic, than it was previously. Less competition too, at least for a while. There's loads of money going into this sector, so I wouldn't be surprised if someone bids for Revs. We've got to remember the share count has greatly increased, from 50m pre-pandemic, to 230m now. Therefore it's pointless looking at previous highs on the chart, as those are now irrelevant. My target range is 30-40p, as before. Worked out very well selling at that price previously, then buying back at 20-22p more recently. I like the ideas management have for new concepts too. An all-day work/social space, which I think they're trialling in Swansea? Sounds similar to Coppa Club, being rolled out by Various Eateries (VARE), and well suited to RBG's large, under-utilised premises. Mgt also talked about a retro games theme, and something a bit like an indoor market, with hairdresser, nail salon, and things like that actually inside the bar during the day, then packing that away each night for the lucrative late night party evenings. All these ideas can be tried out for a relatively modest amount of capex, and if they work, roll them out. Good potential upside. I think mgt are excellent hands-on operators. Not the best at handling corporate finance matters though. Going forwards it's clear the company needs a much stronger balance sheet, we should forget about divis for a while, I'd like to see it move into a strong net cash position, and keep that as a safety reserve in case of future pandemics. Also maybe buy freeholds, through a SPV, and/or negotiate leases with clear roadmap for what happens in the event of another pandemic. Although landlords of best sites probably wouldn't agree to anything like that unfortunately.

[qs99] 31/7/2021 09:19

Cases are going down, 88% first dose, 70%+ both doses, herd immunity and 2% death rate at worst should mean we are through the worst of this and young and old are now out and doing stuff. Try booking a hotel or restaurant if you don’t believe me!

[nw99] 31/7/2021 08:48

A leading night club organiser has dropped requirements for customer to show a covid pass

[simmsc] 31/7/2021 00:52

In Dec 2019 (pre covid) this had a market cap of 35m (pre dilution). It now has as market cap of 51m (post dilution). Can anybody please explain to me why this is such an exciting reopening play?

[markth126] 30/7/2021 19:20

So was durham last night

[nw99] 30/7/2021 19:01

Late buying

[useless23] 30/7/2021 18:26

I walked past one of the bars in Manchester last night. It was hammered.