Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[gswredland] 23/2/2021 16:44

Yes. Not a holder but looking closely from the sidelines

[adamb1978] 20/2/2021 18:35

Agreed Sogoesit. I've been holding these for 4-5 years now. Sold too many on the way up unfortunately. If we do drop back into the mid 20s then I'll be buying more as I thin it would then offer 100% upside potential on a 2-3 year basis

[sogoesit] 20/2/2021 09:47

Agreed, more or less. I see support at 2775 which coincides with the base of the uptrend channel as scooper notes. However, if that fails we could be looking at 2300 going on 2135. This is quite a volatile stock and has a habit of the market losing interest or selling off when (significant) releases don't turn up as regularly as expected or wanted. We still haven't got over the one year release/new-income gap and until that happens the volatility will continue. Not helped by the uncertainty of the new Odyssey release due to management of COVID. LT Hold for me. AIMV

[scooper72] 18/2/2021 17:33

It's true on the chart if u draw a line along the dips it does seem to be reaching that point where it is either going to bounce above it or go through that straight line. Not sure that's how a chartist would describe it but the best I can do.

[scooper72] 18/2/2021 17:31

Thanks. I've started buying individual Frontier Dev. shares on a daily basis as a way of drip feeding into the stock further with my Freetrade ap as they don't charge any fees and the buy price is same as HL platform. Noticed that one subscription I have - Motley Fool Hidden Winners has had them as a Best Buy out of their range of stocks to buy recently.

[adamb1978] 18/2/2021 15:52

Scooper I've been thinking of that too (though it would need to fall another 80-90% to get back to my inprice and I'm notoriously bad at averaging up). Whilst I'm not a chartist, FDEV has previously dropped down to the 50DMA and then bounced off it before - once in July last year and then November, and I dont think its any more below the 50DMA now than it was on those occasions. It doesnt seem to me therefore that it would be unexpected to bounce back somewhere off around where it is now-ish. I think its good value where it is now if you're looking for 20%-30% p.a. over 2-3 years. Adam

[scooper72] 18/2/2021 15:19

Anyone got a price where they see themselves calling end of a pull back and deciding to top up?this is still top spot in my ISA so wondering how to strengthen my holding going forward.

[fledgling1nvestor] 17/2/2021 17:44

They're talking about new content to Jurassic World Evolution, not a new game. Also the mystery FY22 game isn't a Universal property, it's a Sony property.

[ck1111] 17/2/2021 17:30

Talking of Jurassic World I think the global IP multi-format title coming up (in next FY) is a sequel/Jurassic based game. Frontier are hinting at something in their twitter, story here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1l3FpUpAJkk

[fledgling1nvestor] 16/2/2021 22:32

Jurassic World Evolution went on Game Pass a few days ago (11th February) too.

[ck1111] 16/2/2021 21:46

Elite Dangerous is on XBox Gamepass from Feb 25th. p.s Adam thanks for mention of MXCT on here - caused me to get some

[adamb1978] 02/2/2021 19:54

Thanks for the reminder Fizzypop Given the last update, I'm very relaxed about them!

[fizzypop] 02/2/2021 17:27

H1 interims tomorrow.

[scooper72] 21/1/2021 10:56

Sorry. Ignore my comment. Seems like it is just that one is in dollars and one in Sterling.

[scooper72] 21/1/2021 10:47

Thanks. Just comparing the top 10 holdings. They look almost identical. I guess on their unlisted holdings that don't show up on HL are the esports companies as opposed to the straight gaming stocks?

[robow] 21/1/2021 09:11

yes I've got ESGB

[scooper72] 20/1/2021 20:48

Btw. Anyone bought any ESPO the gaming ETF? I've been slowly buying little bits and it's moving steadily up. Good way to diversify in this market.

[scooper72] 20/1/2021 20:45

Looks like the market agreed with you today. Still think it is one to hold onto for 5-10 years and should continue to grow solidly in an expanding industry. Tempted to top up if it falls back much further.

[adamb1978] 13/1/2021 17:07

"Marginally" higher growth rates They also conveniently ignore different year-ends

[energeticbacker] 13/1/2021 17:02

Featured in today's Investor's Champion update: With Frontier shares trading at a mighty 13.5x forecast sales for 2021, upgrades are clearly assumed. By comparison shares in US Electronic Arts (US:EA.), which is bidding to acquire Codemasters, can be picked up for 6.6x forecast revenues, while those of Ubisoft (PAR:UBI), publisher of Assassin’s Creed, fetch a little over 4x forecast revenues. While the AIM listed players might be showing marginally higher growth rates, they now appear to be trading at a mighty premium to peers.

[adamb1978] 13/1/2021 12:33

same figures as I see robow. Its also worth though remembering the wording from this morning: "The current range of analysts' revenue projections for FY22 is £133 million to £153 million. The Elite Dangerous: Odyssey console version and Lemnis Gate launch revenues will now supplement our initial estimates for FY22. " Analysts are saying £133m - £153m....but some additional titles have moved into that year. In effect saying that those figures are likely light

[robow] 13/1/2021 12:29

Sharepad has consensus forecasts from 11 brokers FY22 EPS as 70.7 and FY23 as 85.3

[adamb1978] 13/1/2021 12:25

Just had a look at my forecasts and those which are showing on Capital IQ (S&P database). Given the clear guide on revenue, the biggest disparity and difference of opinion will come from the margins assumed. FDEV increased EBITDA margins to 44% for FY20 up from 34% the year before however consensus forecasts have them reducing back to 39% for FY22 and FY23. Those margins, according to Capital IQ, drive 71p EPS in FY22 and 85p EPS in FY23. Each % point of EBITDA margin drives around 3p-4p EPS. Also worth noting that the Cap IQ figures are post share based payments...and the forecasts generally need you to have a view on operating leverage and capitalised vs expenses R&D. My figures assume EBIT margins increasing a couple % points from FY21 to FY22 and EPS in 80s that year and around 100p in FY23. Are those multiples justified? I think so given the rapid growth of the business and the fact that with the increased number of titles, earnings will be a lot more consistent going forwards.

[sogoesit] 13/1/2021 11:36

Hi Alphabeta... the Chronic Investor publishes forecasts. Don't know where they get the data from. Will check SharesMag and see what they say. EDIT: Nope, SharesMag doesn't do forecasts. Chronic Investor say they have 11 analysts' data (on FDEV).

[scooper72] 13/1/2021 10:13

Feel like I ought to top up. Mainly because have only put 1.5k into this and currently up over 200 percent and it is clearly a LTH. Learning to run my winners, slowly.