Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[grahamytrain] 17/6/2025 18:09:52

Long as they”re not offloading 👍

[s34icknote] 16/6/2025 09:14:16

Some one loading !

[mortal1ty] 12/6/2025 22:05:37

They did 12 FCF this year. So all they have to do is slightly better next year and we are there.

So I'm assuming almost no revenue growth and flat margins yoy.

Given management have already stated they expect to grow this year, that's hardly an unreasonable ask.

[cirlbunting1] 12/6/2025 21:56:50

Yes, but what assumptions are using to get to that fcf of 16m? Net profit margins of 15%+ & a sales growth rate of +4% (and a 4% sales growth rate is aggressive..) ? 10yr avg & geo avg have been 7 & 6% respectively for net prof margin... 5 yr.. way worse. Assuming the company is going to generate the assumptions listed above is a bit far fetched. Esp when staff costs are astronomical. They need to trim their workforce at least another 15%

[mortal1ty] 12/6/2025 17:54:48

At £4.30 the market cap is about £200m.

Take out £40m of cash, gets you to an valuation of £160m.

To justify a £160m valuation you need about £16m of cash flow a year (10% FCF yield is cheap on anyone's standards) and should more than support a DCF.

I think net-cash rose from £27m to £42m this year. Strip out £3.5m from disposals gets you to about £12m FCF.

So we are basically already there. The business is already generating enough cash on a DCF basis to get towards that valuation.

[cirlbunting1] 12/6/2025 14:42:19

Se - its worth reading the report i sent across.

[cirlbunting1] 12/6/2025 13:06:59

Yes, but you have to factor in that theyre not releasing 4 games a year so revenues arent going to be grow double digit yoy (as they were previously from 19-22). The only way these guys got to a share price of 4.3 (from my understanding) is if theyve made net prof margins +20% and used a cost of equity below 10

[se81] 12/6/2025 12:42:39

Well I suppose it would be based on historical terminal sales of JWE.....

"Underlying revenue performance has been excellent

The sector has seen headwinds in the past years from reducing platform subscription deals with major console providers. For FDEV, this made up 13% of FY24A revenues, but just c5% of FY25A revenues. Ignoring this headwind, game revenues have risen c11% in the period, highlighting the underlying strength of the business’ franchises.

We further highlight in Fig 1 how the revenue mix has shifted in FY25 toward a more even split between FDEV’s three core CMS franchises – importantly, the company has seen Planet Zoo revenues grow c2%, supported by a console release, and JWE revenues sustain at 96%. New releases remain a significant proportion of revenues, but dependence on this to sustain the revenue base has reduced somewhat as the company has returned to its CMS genre."

[cirlbunting1] 12/6/2025 09:13:46

This is where you need start questioning some of these DCFs and analysts. They expect rev for jwe3 to be 40m (CONSERVATIVE), so what they forecasting terminal sales growth (MUST BE AGGRESSIVE) to get to a value of £4.3. Cost of eq is a min 10%

[se81] 12/6/2025 07:49:57

Also upgrade TP

"With this morning’s strong trading update we are again upgrading our FY25E EBITDA forecast by c9.5%. Cash conversion has also been stronger than anticipated and the company has c£42.5m at the end of May. £10m of this will be returned to shareholders through a new buyback programme (c9% of mkt cap). In FY25E, the company has firmly returned to underlying profitability, with underlying adj. EBIT (ex-one-off publishing rights sales) rising from -£0.8m in FY24A to +£7.5m in FY25E. We expect this to continue to grow as the company executes on its strategy. The October launch of JWE3 looks well-timed to benefit from the typically strong Q4 sales period as well as the next Jurassic World film’s marketing budget, providing additional confidence. With a significant buyback programme and a strong 9.5% EBITDA beat, we lift our DCF-derived valuation 7.5% to 430p. Buy."

[se81] 12/6/2025 07:49:00

Buyback doesn't start until approved on 27th June though?

Pan Lib thoughts on JWE3 timing and estimates:

"Jurassic World Evolution 3 to be released in peak sales period

As announced on Friday 6th June, JWE 3 will be released on the 21st October 2025, five weeks before the end of Frontier Developments’ H1 period. There are a number of factors that make this an excellent release date:

1. Pre-orders have begun, and should see a benefit from the marketing of the Jurassic World Rebirth film, which releases on the 2nd July 2025.

2. The game will release in the strong Q4 sales period.

3. Take Two’s GTA VI has been delayed from Q4 2025 to May 2026.

At present, we model a total FY26 revenue contribution of c£40m. This is conservative when compared to the sales of JWE 1 (£68m) and JWE 2 (£51.8m), but we remain conscious that the overall market has been difficult in the past few years, and that JWE 3 will release toward the end of FDEV’s H1 accounting period, rather than the beginning."

[mortal1ty] 11/6/2025 10:16:54

I fully expect some profit-taking too.

The £10m though covers about 14% of the free-float (at this price)?

So should be some support. Not to mention those that want to buy in on today's announcement.

[aimgamblerssupportgroup] 11/6/2025 09:14:30

please don't worry, hatfullofsky.
The one has spoken, unlimited share buybacks, from now in perpetuity.

relax. Just hope his math is better here than on Rose and his large lists of busted flush know-all expert ramps that have failed on AFN.

[hatfullofsky] 11/6/2025 09:09:31

A 50% rise is a month will attract some profit taking, so maybe a turbulant few sessions but I expect this to continue to climb over the next 6 months

[cirlbunting1] 11/6/2025 08:45:05

Out for now at 3.18. The ranges provided in that report make sense. The buyback tho... i wonder if they explored the option of buying out their HQ or something similar within Cambridge. Shelling out 2m a year on leases is a bit crazy and given the area is in demand would be a good time. I dont mind adding debt, esp for a company that can generate cash.

[mortal1ty] 11/6/2025 08:31:24

Given the business will definitely grow this year and maybe do very will given Jurassic world Evo 3.. and given that the balance sheet is in great shape. This buyback I suspect will be a yearly thing.

[rimau1] 11/6/2025 08:16:55

Wallywoo, the broker executing the buyback will have parameters in place to ensure they only buy back when there is liquidity and when the stock price is not rising too much. Standard stuff. Also its quite common that a buyback is put in place when a large existing holder wishes to exit or partially selldown so the buyback prevents the stock price having downwards volatility. Long and strong here.

[wallywoo] 11/6/2025 08:08:08

Over 300p again.


If they are buying back £10m of stock, with just a 30000 average daily volume. It's going to severely effect the share price.

Who says small caps are a poor investment. Up over 50% in 6 weeks.

[mortal1ty] 11/6/2025 07:54:04

Nah JWE2 released out of sync of a Jurassic movie and it still did 67m in revenue. JWE1 released in sync and it did 70m of revenue.

JWE3 doesn't even have any Rebirth themes. I suspect there will be a DLC for it later.

[mister md] 11/6/2025 07:51:33

Nice update - what I don't understand is why they don't have the latest Jurassic game (October) launched at the same time as the latest movie release (July) - you would get an automatic boost from all the hype & movie promotion. By October that will have decreased substantially.

[mortal1ty] 11/6/2025 07:19:16

Where's yank. That guy told me once this company needs to raise capital lol. He must have meant give back capital.

[mortal1ty] 11/6/2025 07:13:23

As someone who owns 0.4% of this company, and has gone through some stress over this position, today is the day I have been waiting for!

[mortal1ty] 11/6/2025 07:11:44

The good news has been coming for a while. The shares just haven't been responding.

43m in cash and a market cap of 100m. Cash grew 16m in a year.

I suspect the board are also happy with her pre orders and want to buyback the shares now whilst they are cheap.

See you back at 5 pound.

[bat5hit] 11/6/2025 07:10:00

It's about time we got some good news!