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LLOY Lloyds Banking Group Plc

55.42
0.10 (0.18%)
20 Nov 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Lloyds Banking Group Plc LSE:LLOY London Ordinary Share GB0008706128 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.10 0.18% 55.42 128,713,834 16:35:29
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
55.44 55.48 55.74 55.24 55.50
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Commercial Banks, Nec 23.74B 5.46B 0.0888 6.25 34.01B
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
18:28:37 O 153,145 55.49 GBX

Lloyds Banking (LLOY) Latest News

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Lloyds Banking Forums and Chat

Date Time Title Posts
21/11/202406:04Lloyds Bank (MODERATED)2,451
20/11/202421:05Black Beauty: A Recovering Quadruped399,056
19/11/202417:13Lloyds Bank (LLOY) 'On Topic only' - Thread34,882
23/10/202407:11Lloyds Bank PLC, chat and charts121
25/9/202414:50HALIFAX SHARE DEALING78

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Lloyds Banking (LLOY) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2024-11-20 18:28:3755.49153,14584,980.16O
2024-11-20 16:48:1555.493,015,8601,673,500.71O
2024-11-20 16:39:5355.60259144.00O
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2024-11-20 16:35:3055.42294,984163,480.13O

Lloyds Banking (LLOY) Top Chat Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 20/11/2024 08:20 by Lloyds Banking Daily Update
Lloyds Banking Group Plc is listed in the Commercial Banks, Nec sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker LLOY. The last closing price for Lloyds Banking was 55.32p.
Lloyds Banking currently has 61,482,503,126 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Lloyds Banking is £34,122,789,235.
Lloyds Banking has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 6.25.
This morning LLOY shares opened at 55.50p
Posted at 11/11/2024 16:23 by car1pet
Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LSE:LLOY) potential financial risk due to motor finance loans is manageable, according to Deutsche Bank, which reaffirmed its 'buy' rating on the stock, with a slightly reduced price target of 80 pence (down from 83p).

Since 2007, Lloyds has collected an estimated £5.7 billion in interest on £56 billion in motor finance loans.

A recent court ruling introduced the possibility of "full rescission", meaning loans could theoretically be reversed, but Lloyds’ strong capital base is likely to withstand even this unlikely event, Deutsche said.


Lloyds is expected to continue a steady dividend, though stock buybacks may be more limited in the short term, the German bank said in a brief note.

Factoring in returns of all broker fees, total capital return is expected to yield 31% by 2026, with even the harshest scenario allowing for 20%.

Lloyds shares were up 1.8% at 54.04p in afternoon trading.
Posted at 08/11/2024 01:37 by cobourg1
I hope that eventually someone with some credibility will point out that any money that Lloyds is likely to pay is priced into the share price several times over. That it isn't certain that Lloyds will have to pay or what it will have to pay,and if it does it will be over a long time period. Come to think of it, a bit more information from the company wouldn't come amiss.

Lloyds is under priced compared with its peers who are generally doing quite well. I know it might be facing a hit, but 54p ....really?

Still, in some ways we are lucky, have you seen the Close Brothers share price?
Posted at 05/11/2024 18:06 by freddie01
The structural hedge: Britain's big banks' little-known weapon as rates fall

Structural hedging is especially prevalent at the current moment

Updated: 09:14, 5 November 2024


Britain's biggest lenders enjoyed bumper profitability in the third quarter as the sector began cashing in on a tailwind that could drive returns in the years ahead.

Lloyds Banking Group and Barclays recently reported much stronger-than-expected growth for the period, thanks to healthy income.

The former, whose brands include Scottish Widows and Bank of Scotland, recorded £1.8billion in pre-tax profits, while the latter achieved an equivalent £2.2billion.

Both firms partially credited their performances to 'structural hedging', a practice that has helped offset the effects of customers refinancing mortgages at lower rates or choosing alternative savings accounts paying higher returns.

But what is structural hedging, how does it help banking giants' profitability, and which banks are set to benefit the most from its use?

What is a structural hedge?

Hedges are essentially an insurance policy used by businesses to protect themselves against dramatic cost spikes or financial losses.

Airlines, for example, regularly purchase fuel at a fixed price for a specified period because petrol represents a massive chunk of their expenses, and a sudden price surge could severely detriment their profits.

For British lenders, earnings are generally contingent on net interest margin (NIM) - the difference between what they pay savers and receive in loans.

Competition to offer the best deposits and mortgages, as well as other loans, can be fierce and heavily impact a bank's NIM.


So, to preserve profits against exposure to interest rate movements, banks will take out 'structural hedges'.

This could be in the form of interest rate swaps - a contract with another party to exchange interest payments, with one side usually paying a floating rate and the other an unchanged rate.

Alternatively, they could establish a fixed-rate bond portfolio that pays a consistent percentage of interest over a predetermined amount of time.

Structural hedging is especially prevalent at the current moment as UK interest rates trend downwards after gradually climbing from record low levels between 2021 and 2023 owing to soaring inflation.


British lenders often hedge a large share of their deposits and loan books, but they usually avoid hedging all of it.

For NatWest, more than 40 per cent of its deposit base - equivalent to £175billion - constitutes part of its product structural hedge, which has an average span of two and a half years, meaning it takes a full five years to reprice.

HSBC has an even bigger structural hedge - it expanded by $27billion over the last quarter to $531billion, primarily due to fluctuating foreign exchange rates. Of this, $30billion is maturing in 2024 and $115billion next year.

How banks benefit from a structural hedge
One major advantage to structural hedging is that lenders can cushion their turnover and earnings against extensive volatility.

Analysts often incorrectly predict short-term interest rates because of unforeseen geopolitical and macroeconomic factors.

Even when inflation is falling, central banks can take longer than expected to cut rates.

While this can bolster lenders' interest income, this revenue stream can be eroded if banks fail to hedge before interest rates decline.

So if a bank has a bond portfolio locking in 5 per cent, but rates hit 3 per cent ahead of maturity, their income and profits will be better shielded.

All of the larger UK banks operate a structural hedge,'
Benjamin Toms, analyst at RBC Capital Markets
Barclays estimates the drop in interest rates from 5 per cent to 0.5 per cent in 2008/09 could have wiped out income from its rate-insensitive current accounts by 90 per cent.

Instead, hedging meant its income decreased by just under 5 per cent over this period.

Will Howlett, financial analyst at Quilter Cheviot, said: 'The real benefit arises in an environment such as that we are seeing now where rates are falling – so banks' hedges are rolling on to higher fixed rates while paying out at a lower rate on the variable leg.'

Howlett also says interest rate hedging reduces the capital lenders need to hold against their banking book exposures, which can 'optimise balance sheet efficiency'.

This grants them more leeway to even more generously reward investors - UK banks paid out £3.3billion in dividends during the third quarter of 2024, a larger amount than any other sector, according to Computershare.

What are the downsides to structural hedging?
In an elevated rate environment, banks are sacrificing some profits in favour of the stability provided by hedging.

However, if banks opt for hedges with long maturities, this can blowback against them when interest rates start going up again.

As the old adage goes, rates rise like a rocket but fall like a feather, so lenders absorb more risk by not choosing shorter-term bonds and interest rate swaps.

'The longer the duration of the derivative transaction, the less nimble a bank can be to benefit if interest rates start to rise, so there are potential costs,' says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

He adds: 'Nor do banks hedge their entire deposit and loan books as these transactions come with costs of their own.'

Analysts back Barclays
In the three months ending September, Lloyds Banking Group's total net income increased by 5 per cent to £4.3billion from the prior quarter.

The FTSE 100 firm enjoyed a slightly bigger net interest margin thanks to structural hedge earnings compensating for customers refinancing mortgages and choosing different savings accounts.

Structural hedging similarly aided growth in third-quarter interest income and profits at Barclays and NatWest Group, with both surpassing pre-tax profits forecasts by around £200million.

NatWest, which is 16 per cent owned by the UK Government, also saw its shares hit their highest level in nine years following the publication of its results.

Standard Chartered credited its short-term hedge roll-off and repricing of structural hedges for helping to lift its treasury income by $281million year-on-year in the July to September period.

The Asia-focused firm's announcement came as it reported underlying operating income jumped by around $500million to $4.9billion, its best third-quarter result since 2015.

And HSBC attributed positive fair value movements on structural hedging to partly offsetting lower revenue at its corporate centre arm, which includes its central treasury and legacy businesses.

'All of the larger UK banks operate a structural hedge,' notes Benjamin Toms, analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

He adds: 'The key difference is in how mechanical each bank is in replacing existing swaps, with a bank like Barclays being very mechanical and a bank like Lloyds being more tactical, NatWest sit somewhere in the middle.'

He believes Barclays will be the primary beneficiary of this tailwind because of the 'shorter average duration' of its structural hedge.

Quilter's Howlett thinks the bigger domestic British banks - not just Barclays - will reap a greater boon when compared to the more Asia-focused banks like HSBC and Standard Chartered.

'As interest rates fall,' says Howlett, 'these banks will continue to deploy hedging strategies to good effect and ensure they continue to see the benefit of higher interest rates, even if the BoE is dropping the headline rate.'
Posted at 26/10/2024 12:57 by cobourg1
Excellent post from Hounddog10 on the other board who I imagine is a lawyer. Well worth reading carefully a couple of times.

...........................................................................


RE: £2b or NOT £2b...Today 12:46

The Court of Appeal judgment is quite complicating in terms of timing on DCA. The FCA is meant to come out with its position in May 2025. Lloyds will issue its annual accounts in February 2025 without knowing the FCA position. They may have a good idea from internal sources what the outcome is likely to be but the FCA could change its mind at the last minute and under accounting standards for provisions you are only meant to make a provision if you have ACTUAL knowledge of a liability (not just hearsay). I have no idea how, technically, they managed to make the £450m provision in last year’s 2023 accounts but assume they did it because they had an unexpected windfall (write back) of about the same amount on the Barclays brothers’ loans. It is difficult for auditors to resist companies putting up provisions even if the technical justification is thin.

Therefore I think it likely (but not impossible) that there would be no car loan provisions in the 2024 accounts. This then leaves what might happen in 2025 and beyond.

The FCA is now in a tricky position. As I understand it the Court of Appeal’s judgment is retrospective ie impacts the duty that lenders are said to owe customers in the years affected by DCA. Therefore, the FCA has to take the case into account in any conclusion they come to in May 2025. However, it is being appealed. I cannot find the judgment yet in the legal Bailii database but I assume it did not include permission to appeal and this, firstly, would have to be obtained from the Supreme Court. I suspect Close Bros would get it. However, although the Supreme Court is not very busy at the moment, it will probably take at least a year to get the case to court, heard and judgment delivered.

So it is possible that the FCA will have to push back its conclusions to a later date. This should mean (any) provisions also get pushed out into the future.

I would agree with others that these sort of liabilities have a nasty habit of being much bigger than initially thought with very big administrative costs. However, I cannot see it being anywhere near PPI and Lloyds has the experience of managing that so, hopefully, some lessons learned. It is also worth remembering that any provisions should attract tax relief at 25%.

The share price looks oversold at the moment. More important is what Rachel the Robber comes up with next week.
Posted at 24/10/2024 12:03 by yump
Proactiveinvestors

Commentators reporting on other commentators. Nice work if you can get it.

The crowd that brown nose in interviews and never ask any penetrating questions. I wonder what their commentary was when the share price was 45p.

So the share price hasn’t risen much a day after the results. Since when was Lloyds an AIM stock ?
Posted at 24/10/2024 11:50 by freddie01
Lloyds Banking Group earnings beat fails to move the share price - here's why

13:35 23 Oct 2024 BST



Lloyds Banking Group PLC's (LSE:LLOY) third-quarter metrics exceeded market expectations, yet the bank’s share price saw little movement.

Now, for the dedicated follower of the black horse bank, that shouldn't come as a surprise.

First, there was no upward revision of the full-year number from CEO Charlie Nunn and his team.

And, after a stellar run that has seen around £8 billion, or 28% added to the group's market capitalisation, the stock looks up with events - albeit some optimists out there suggest the current share price underestimates Lloyds' potential.


Earnings beat
The UK's largest lender posted pre-tax profits of £1.8 billion for the quarter, ahead of analysts’ forecasts of £1.6 billion.

While this figure was slightly lower than last year’s £1.9 billion, the results were notable given the broader economic backdrop, including falling interest rates.

Lloyds has been able to use its 'structural hedge'—a financial strategy to manage interest rate fluctuations—to maintain a higher-than-expected net interest margin (NIM), a key measure of profitability.

The NIM for the quarter stood at 2.95%, up from 2.93% in the previous quarter and slightly ahead of market predictions.

John Moore, senior investment manager at RBC Brewin Dolphin, said: “With interest rates on a downward trajectory, there will inevitably be an ebb and flow to the numbers, and there is some evidence of that today.”

Lloyds' underlying profit was 11% ahead of consensus forecasts, while pre-provision profits were 4% higher than expected, helped by lower-than-anticipated impairment charges.

Credit quality holds up
UBS analysts pointed out that net interest income was 1% ahead of expectations, with the NIM slightly outperforming projections.

"The margin and non-interest income were highlights, particularly in the context of a quarter in which the lag effect of the base rate cut might have impacted by circa three basis points," said broker Jefferies.

Shore Capital’s Gary Greenwood agreed that the improvement in NIM was significant, noting that "credit quality remains very benign" and that Lloyds' capital generation continues to be strong.

Despite these encouraging numbers, Lloyds kept its guidance for the full year unchanged, which may have tempered any significant movement in the share price.

Forecasts intact
For 2024, City analysts are expecting pre-tax profits of just under £6.2 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of 6.3p.

Greenwood’s forecast is more optimistic, at £6.6 billion and 6.8p EPS, though he pointed out that his figures do not account for any additional provisions from the Financial Conduct Authority’s review into discretionary commission payments.

While the numbers were positive, two uncertainties remain for Lloyds.

One is the potential fallout from the mis-sold Personal Contract Purchase (PCP) loans through its Black Horse motor finance division. The other is what strategic steps the bank will take moving forward, with investors looking for clarity on long-term growth plans.

For now, Lloyds’ steady performance, bolstered by strong lending growth and stable margins, has reassured investors, even if the share price response has been subdued.

As RBC’s Moore summed up, "there will inevitably be an ebb and flow to the numbers," as the bank continues to navigate changing market conditions.
Posted at 23/10/2024 11:13 by marktime1231
Arguing about buybacks aside, did anyone spot anything interesting in the release?

Adhering to the FY outlook means LLOY still expects two more rate cuts this year. Do we really think there will be a 0.5% cut next month or 0.25% cuts in November and December? Would be good but I don't imagine the BoE will be so bold.

EDIT - the second release reveals that an unchanged outlook includes the change of now expecting only one further 0.25% rate cut in Q4 2024. Fair enough. And expects rates to drop and stick at 4% in Q3 next year. That is a punishing interest rate and mortgage rate outlook, no-one wants the old 4% normal to be the new 4% normal. It will feel brutal if at the same time CPI holds in the 1.5-2.5% range. The UK will be struggling for growth and burdened with taxes to pay the cost of accumulated debt. How gloomy.

The strength of LLOY share price progress has surprised me. DB were LLOY worst critic of the last few years, now a massive uprating despite actual performance following a steady as-expected path including NIM falling back to a historically more normal level.
Posted at 04/10/2024 06:56 by freddie01
Here’s the dividend forecast for Lloyds shares through until 2026


Based on predictions prepared by analysts, dividends from Lloyds shares are expected to grow steadily over the next three years.

At the end of July, shares in Lloyds Banking Group (LSE:LLOY) broke through the 60p barrier for the first time since the pandemic. Since then, they’ve fallen back slightly. However, they remain (at 30 September) 23% higher than at the start of 2024.

Despite this good run, I suspect most people hold the stock for its generous dividend rather than in expectation of significant capital growth. So I’m going to look at the latest forecast to see what the stock might pay between now and 2026.


What returns might be on offer?
In respect of its year ended 31 December 2023 (FY23), the bank paid a dividend of 2.76p a share. Based on a current share price of 59.5p, this implies a yield of 4.6%.


With the FTSE 100 as a whole averaging 3.8%, it’s easy to see why the ‘black horse bank’ remains popular with income investors.

But the good news doesn’t stop there.

Its FY24 interim dividend was 15.2% higher than in FY23. If the final payout’s increased by the same amount, the yield rises to an even more impressive 5.3%.

In fact, analysts are expecting the bank to do better. The average of their predictions is for a FY24 total dividend of 3.26p, offering yield of 5.5%.

Looking further ahead, payouts of 3.44p (FY25) and 3.98p (FY26) are expected. If correct, a return of up to 6.7% (FY26) could be available.

And it would mean an increase in its payout of 99%, compared to FY21.

Is this forecast realistic?
However, forecasting dividends is more of an art than a science, especially for banking stocks where earnings can be volatile.

To meet these predictions, Lloyds must continue to grow. The bank consistently pays out around 45% of its earnings per share in dividends, so any drop in profits is likely to lead to a cut in its payout.

And I believe earnings will come under pressure as it looks as though we’re heading into a lower interest rate environment.

Also, with an estimated 18% share of the UK mortgage market, the bank is heavily exposed to the domestic economy. Virtually all of its profits are generated in this country. But the British economy is struggling to grow at the moment.

However, despite these concerns, the stock appears to offer good value. Its market cap of £36.5bn is around 20% lower than its book value at 30 June 2024, of £45.1bn.

It also trades at 8.9 times its estimated earnings for 2024. This is low by historical standards and comfortably below the FTSE 100 average.

The risk of bad loans also appears to have receded. For the first two quarters of 2024, it set aside £101m to cover losses, compared to £662m during the same period in 2023.

However, despite this — and the healthy dividend yield — I don’t want to invest at the moment.

That’s because with the country’s finances in such a dreadful state, I fear the government will see the banking sector as an easy target for raising additional tax receipts.

I suspect we’re likely to see some short-term share price volatility if a ‘windfall tax’ (or something similar) is imposed on the industry. I’m therefore going to wait until after the budget on 30 October, before revisiting the investment case
Posted at 28/9/2024 17:11 by freddie01
Lloyds Banking Group share price outlook for 2024 and beyond


Lloyds Banking Group faces a mixed outlook for 2024, with strong fundamentals but significant headwinds. Here's what investors need to know.


How is Lloyds performing?


Lloyds Banking Group (Lloyds) is currently trading at around 59.00 pence (p) per share. This represents a significant 32% increase over the past year, showcasing the bank's resilience in a challenging economic environment.

One of the most attractive features for income-seeking investors is Lloyds’ forward-looking dividend yield, projected at 5.8% for 2025. This generous yield reflects the bank's commitment to shareholder returns, despite facing various headwinds.

Lloyds posted substantial profits of £2.4 billion in the first half of 2024. However, this figure represents a 15% year-over-year (YoY) decline, hinting at the challenges the bank faces in maintaining its profitability in the current economic climate.

The bank's performance is closely tied to the broader UK economy, making it an important barometer for investors looking to gauge the health of the nation's financial sector. As such, understanding Lloyds’ outlook is crucial for both existing shareholders and potential investors.

Positive factors supporting Lloyds' outlook


Firstly, Lloyds operates in a market with persistent high demand for essential financial services, particularly mortgages. As the UK's largest mortgage lender, the bank is well-positioned to capitalise on the nation's ongoing housing needs, providing a stable revenue stream.

Secondly, Lloyds enjoys significant economies of scale, allowing it to operate more efficiently than smaller competitors. This cost advantage is particularly valuable in a challenging economic environment where margins may be under pressure.

Thirdly, the bank boasts a vast customer base and a portfolio of well-known brands, including Halifax and Bank of Scotland. This strong market presence provides Lloyds with a solid foundation for customer retention and cross-selling opportunities.

Lastly, Lloyds’ substantial profits, despite recent declines, demonstrate its ability to generate significant returns even in difficult conditions. This financial strength provides a buffer against potential economic shocks and supports the bank's ability to maintain its attractive dividend yield.

What are the challenges facing Lloyds' share price rally?


Despite its strong fundamentals, Lloyds faces several significant challenges that could affect its performance in 2024 and beyond. Investors should carefully consider these factors when assessing the bank's outlook.

The primary concern is the changing interest rate environment. Recent rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) are likely to put pressure on Lloyds' net interest margins (NIM). As NIMs are a key driver of profitability for traditional banks, this could negatively impact Lloyds’ earnings in the coming periods.

Economic uncertainty presents another major challenge. The UK's unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, raising concerns about potential increases in loan defaults and repossessions. This situation may require Lloyds to increase its provisions for bad debts, further eroding its income.

Regulatory and legal risks also loom large. Lloyds faces potential litigation costs from an ongoing car finance probe, which could result in significant financial penalties and reputational damage. Such regulatory actions can have long-lasting impacts on a bank's operations and profitability.

Finally, it's important to remember the cyclical nature of the banking sector. Banks are particularly sensitive to economic cycles, and any downturn in the UK economy could have a disproportionate impact on Lloyds' performance.

Lloyds' share price: analyst sentiment and trading activity


The current analyst consensus on Lloyds is a cautious "Hold" based on 10 ratings, with 3 Buy, 6 Hold, and 1 Sell recommendation. This mixed sentiment reflects the balanced view of Lloyds' strengths and challenges.

The stock has been assigned a "Neutral" Smart Score of 6 out of 10, indicating that it's expected to perform in line with the overall market. This score takes into account various factors including analyst recommendations, corporate insider transactions, and technical indicators.

Interestingly, trading activity shows some divergence between long-term positioning and short-term sentiment. While 86% of open positions are long, suggesting overall optimism about Lloyds' prospects, recent trading activity has been predominantly bearish. In the last hour, 75% of trades were sells, with 68% sells over the past week.

This contrast between long-term holdings and short-term trading activity could indicate that while investors believe in Lloyds' long-term value, they are cautious about its near-term performance given the current economic headwinds.

Lloyds share price: technical analysis


Lloyds’ chart reveals a predominantly bullish trend from 2020 into 2024. The price has shown significant appreciation, currently trading near its highest levels at around 59.31p. This upward momentum is further confirmed by the price consistently staying above both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, with the shorter-term average positioned above the longer-term one. The overall price action suggests strong buyer interest and sustained upward pressure.

Looking at momentum indicators, the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) presents a bullish picture with its line positioned above both the signal line and the zero line. This configuration typically indicates positive momentum. However, the converging MACD lines hint at a potential slowdown in this upward trajectory, suggesting traders should remain vigilant.

From a support and resistance perspective, the current price level around 59.31p appears to be encountering some resistance, as evidenced by recent price consolidation. Previous resistance levels, notably around the 50.00p mark, seem to have transformed into support levels, reinforcing the bullish structure of the market.

The most recent price action shows a brief pullback followed by renewed buying interest, illustrated by a prominent green candle. While the overall trend remains bullish, traders should be mindful of potential resistance at current levels and stay alert for any signs of trend reversal or significant divergences in technical indicators.

Lloyds share price: the outlook for Q4 2024 and beyond


Looking ahead to 2024, Lloyds presents a mixed picture for investors. While the bank's strong market position, attractive dividend yield, and proven ability to generate profits are positive factors, it faces significant headwinds that could impact its performance.

The key to Lloyds' performance in 2024 will likely be its ability to navigate the challenging interest rate environment while managing the potential increase in bad debts due to rising unemployment. The bank's success in maintaining its net interest margins and controlling costs will be crucial.

Investors should closely monitor economic indicators, particularly unemployment rates and housing market trends. These factors will have a substantial impact on Lloyds' loan book quality and overall performance. Additionally, any developments in the ongoing car finance probe could significantly affect the bank's financial outlook.
Posted at 07/9/2024 08:20 by freddie01
The 3 big threats to Lloyds’ share price for 2024 and 2025!

Is Lloyds’ share price one of the FTSE 100’s biggest investor traps? Here are just a few reasons why the Black Horse Bank could be about to sink.
Lloyds Banking share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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