I3 Energy Share Discussion Threads

[rockyride] 26/7/2024 21:22

Trump wont win

[aberdeenandy] 26/7/2024 16:51

jw

Good questions but you've strayed into the start of my weekend and I'm about to go to the pub. Can it wait until Monday?

[jw97] 26/7/2024 16:42

Andy/RTW, a few questions from me if you don't mind.

1. Andy, what do YOU think the answers to these questions are - why can't you work them out for yourself? On the second question, for example, if you know your way around a balance sheet it shouldn't take you more than a couple of minutes to do the calculation.

2. RTW, one question was whether i3 had a sustainable business model at $65 - by disastrous do you mean unsustainable? One doesn't necessarily imply the other. The other question was about shareholders getting their money back. You've described the process but not answered the question.

3. Andy, how will Trump be able to get the oil companies to give up $10-15 per barrel of their current margin, and in particular how will he get them to drill at $65 a barrel in fields where the breakeven point is higher than this?

4. Energy makes up 8% of the US CPI by weight, so a 20% cut in prices would knock 1.6% off of inflation directly, more when you factor in the indirect price falls in things made with or transported by energy. That would leave the US dangerously close to deflation, something markets hate - there's a reason central banks have a 2% inflation target. Given this, do you think its possible that Trump is talking the talk but won't actually walk the walk?

[aberdeenandy] 26/7/2024 16:20

RTW

I think I’m going to be sick after reading that.

Tony

If we did end up next to each other in the unsecured creditors queue, could we put past differences behind us and hold hands for support? You could also keep an eye on my bucket!

[pretax2] 26/7/2024 16:10

The price is more or less where it was for the last forever.
Whatever RTW or Aberdeen are saying is having zero impact on the market for I3E shares.
Why do you even bother guys?
Been doing Bbs on ADVFN for 22years. Only one post ever had a dramatic impact on shareprice… temporarily.
Since muppets are filtered I don’t care what they say. Suggest others judge quality and use the filter.

[roundtheworld] 26/7/2024 15:59

36.

Trump is obsessed with getting inflation down.

[roundtheworld] 26/7/2024 15:58

Andy

Thank you for those kind words.

1. Below 65 bucks a barrel would be disastrous for i3 particularly if AECO also took a further dive. Is that possible? With Trump anything is on the cards. I remember not to long ago oil went down to zero and even drifted into negative territory so these dips are cyclical and will come again.
2. Unfortunately shareholders are unsecured creditors in an Administration so you’d be at the end of the queue next to a red-faced angry Tony Norstrom and a pile of his ripped up stamped on spreadsheets.

[36redhill] 26/7/2024 15:53

Why would Trump want the price to drop to that level. It would hurt his own producers?

[tonynorstrom1] 26/7/2024 15:38

I won’t butt in - such a stupid question doesn’t warrant a response.

But I’m keen to here RTW’s response to your question. Also keen to hear his response to my question on what the balance view is with credible links to support it. My concern is that both you, him and Fanny are never prepared / able to provide the back-up - but let’s see.

[aberdeenandy] 26/7/2024 15:11

RTW

You seem like a knowledgeable chap.

A couple of questions.

If Trump gets in on Nov 5 and proceeds to “drill baby drill” (as he promises) to bring the price of oil and gas down in his fight against inflation do you think i3 will have a sustainable business model if oil hits $65 and AECO drifts even lower?

Secondly. Would shareholders get their money back in the worst scenario of i3 going into Administration?


Tony. Please don’t butt in. Let RTW answer. You’ll get a chance later. Thank you for your cooperation.

[tonynorstrom1] 26/7/2024 14:52

Andy - it shouldn’t be - if your really worried sick - sell out.

The other point that should be noted - if there were any “material̶1; change to I3E’s financials due to wild fires or other events - then i3e are required to issue an RNS immediately notifying the market. The fact that they haven't I think its reasonable to assume that there have been no significant shut ins so far.

I know that this is the kind of information that you , RTW and Fanny like to spin negatively without basis - I’m just struggling to see how you are bringing balance.

[tonynorstrom1] 26/7/2024 14:38

Round the Bend

Please clarify for this BB how it is ramping - its relevant (AECO) and factual with links.

You on the other hand post misinformation with no links - so take a hike you cretin!

If you think you can provide a balanced picture - please provide it with links. Posting negative information that you made up like the false claims on dividend cuts is not balanced. So again RTB - FU you cretin!

[aberdeenandy] 26/7/2024 13:51

Golfer

Thanks. I just have. It’s enough to make shareholders worried sick. :-(

[golfer32] 26/7/2024 13:24

Search Alberte wildfires it's not looking good.

[roundtheworld] 26/7/2024 12:50

Give the ramping a rest please Tony. Even for just a day.

You trawl the internet for anything bullish about oil and gas prices and when you stumble upon something you post it enthusiastically ignoring all the articles that have a bearish opinion.

This is why you are a shameless Ramper. You don't give the readers a balanced picture.

[tonynorstrom1] 26/7/2024 11:01

This guy's Twitter page is well worth a visit. According to his profile, he works for Tourmaline as well as having worked for Banks and Hedge Funds in the past so he appears to know his onions ! Coincidently, Tourmaline is the largest Nat Gas producers in Canada.

Whats interesting is his post below states that the Nat Gas price weakness in Canada is primarily due to the inventory build in the prior winter months and not whats going on now. The graph he included shows that the rate of inventory growth this summer is the 7th or 8th slowest out of the last 10 years. So whilst production is at a record and increasing, demand growth has been increasing at a faster rate relative to most prior years. This perhaps contradicts the narrative that Canadian Producers have zero discipline. Takeaway:

If this years winter is average to colder than average, it should be very positive for AECO pricing particularly with LNG Canada start-up imminent along with the commissioning of additional gas fired electricity generation.

@JamieHeard5

Such a good way to show how the summer '24 gas price chop is a function of a non-winter behind it, not a overproduced summer. LNG demand ramping over the next 12 months + the potential of 'normal' winter weather ahead will ask a lot more of the industry (acitivity / production) than its being asked of now.

[cmackay] 26/7/2024 10:30

That's reasonable, Andy.

GLA, however you proceed. I'm holding for the dividend to reinvest but each to their own.

[tonynorstrom1] 26/7/2024 04:04

Remember the rules Andy:

1) Keep the posts factual
2) Provide back up / links to the information / opinions where possible to add credibility.
3) Respond to fellow posters that ask reasonable questions - it appears that you have dodged a few recently and i'm not talking about my questions.

As an example supporting your latest expert piece of analysis - you might want to have considered including the following link:

hXXps://boereport.com/2024/07/25/goldman-sachs-says-next-us-president-to-have-limited-tools-to-significantly-boost-2025-oil-supply/

And revisiting one of your previous pearls of wisdom i.e. Trumps plan to "drill baby drill" - is Kamala going to allow him and even is she does - will he be able to do it from a prison cell - a lot to ponder me thinks!

[mr waite] 25/7/2024 22:39

I did and brought some more.
👍💰💰💰

[tonynorstrom1] 25/7/2024 19:25

Ah Mackay - I was wondering when you would come out of the woodwork again - its a pity you didnt show any of that wisdom / caution over at TERN - you might have saved yourself a few quid.

It would also serve you well to understand the difference between caution and misinformation of the sort that "worried sick" Andy peddles!