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PET Petrel Resources Plc

2.85
0.20 (7.55%)
10 May 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Petrel Resources Plc LSE:PET London Ordinary Share IE0001340177 ORD EUR0.0125 (CDI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.20 7.55% 2.85 6,766,120 16:11:21
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
2.70 3.00 3.30 2.65 2.65
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Oil And Gas Field Expl Svcs EUR EUR -311k EUR -0.0020 -14.25 4.48M
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:23:27 O 1,000,000 3.055 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
11/5/202410:20Petrel Resources finally set to deliver?21,938
03/5/202409:17PETREL resources15,311
10/4/202412:28A Multi Billion Pound Company in the making..2024 a New Start21
08/4/202315:03Petrel Resources Charts, News and Press Articles513
05/8/202110:56PETREL AND SHELL137

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Petrel Resources (PET) Top Chat Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 10/5/2024 19:18 by steveberyl
KD great work Many thanks At £4.5m PET is seen as paltry, except in IRAQ.

Respect is a Financial Commodity in Iraq alongside Trust which takes years to gather, Pet has worked Extensively with Iraq PCLD and assisted in drawing up plans and Seismic work in many area`s for PCLD who at times requested Pet aid.

Pet Res has acquired Respect & Trust amongst the most powerful movers and shakers in Iraq and as I have alluded to previously, being Irish in an AMERICAN enclave is a bonus.
Posted at 10/5/2024 18:34 by steveberyl
Historical, but obviously still relevant.


That historical, content been removed. The Merjan Field has been part of Petrel Res work since 2006-2010
Work was stopped when Covid struck. PET certainly do have a presence in Iraq and move in TOP Circle, it would be a surprise if PET did not get something substantial from the Merjan block in the bidding process.

Pet have always used ONLY LOCAL LABOUR and Tech plus PET are known and Respected.
Posted at 10/5/2024 15:39 by kdickson
I'm trying to think what to say that might help undecided folks make up their minds whether to buy in today or not.

Obviously nothing is ever guaranteed in life but  I think if you even just 'gamble' £1000, with a real possibility of that being £20,000 within a few weeks, then it's a very tempting option.

If you like %ages, then I am 80%, maybe 90%, sure of us getting Merjan and being the operator as part of a JV/consortium.

Block 6 ('Anz') is at 50% to 60%.

Here are some snippets that I often return to:

Private email from DH to another shareholder in early July 2023, just before the AGM:

"We have applied to the Iraqis, and have been told all is well so far, but nothing that is yet RNSable".

------------

JULY 2023 AGM (courtesy of f31's notes):

- The stumbling block had always been the fiscal terms, but when David saw that the Total contract had a 30% profit sharing element, he stated that Petrel then re-established contact with Itochu (mentioning that the current world-wide boss of Itochu Gas was previously a 1 year intern with Petrel in Dublin!)

- DH also stated we have a very good local representative, politically involved, who had made considerable progress and wanted Petrel to submit a very specific proposal. David then went on to confirm Petrel has submitted a proposal for Merjan and they have been told to be available in September (see DEC 2023 email below) for meetings on the proposal.

----------

SEPT 2023 Chairman's Statement:

- "Petrel has fine-tuned its Iraqi proposals, following feedback" (as f31 discussed later, this shows a positive interaction with the Iraqis on our initial submission, i.e. in with a chance)

- "An updated Merjan oil field development proposal has been submitted to the Ministry with a view to finalising a licence agreement"

- "...as we roll out high-potential new projects, and the share price hopefully rises, it may be attractive to accept funding"
(f31: This very specific wording shows they have very little doubt that this will happen)

- "The board expects to add another one or more Non-Executive Directors with the next major deal".
(f31: I am actually surprised that the NOMAD agreed with the specific wording because he could hardly have given a stronger hint that we are on the verge of a "Tamraz-like" (but not him!) participation or take-over of some sorts (29.9%) connected to a major deal.

-----------

DEC 2023:
Private message to me from a very reliable source about the whereabouts of DH:

"Been away in the MENA region".

(KD: 'Petrel has fine-tuned its Iraqi proposals, following feedback'....feedback from a Sept meeting perhaps? ;) )
Posted at 10/5/2024 06:29 by steveberyl
An RNS Today, Confirming PET Inclusion in the Bidding process would start a fire under PET share price


Here we are then, at the end of the road, hopefully. It has been arduous, torturous but here we are. It is now simply a case of, "If you are in, when RNS is issued 07.00
Mon`3/05/24 you stand to earn life changing sums at 8am."

If you are not in, you will have to pay huge sums to get a few shares.


I see PET being given a huge Contract purely based on USA Influence on IRAQ Petroleum Contracts and Licencing Directorate. Plus an AGREED JV with a USA OIL GIANT.

Biden will ensure an Irish Company succeed.
Posted at 08/5/2024 15:24 by kdickson
Not forgetting that in a 2007 article DH stated:

"Eventually we’ll be bought by BP, Total or our sugar Daddy, Itochu (a Japanese joint venture partner in Iraq with Petrel)".

And, current worldwide head of Itochu Gas was an intern for a year at Petrel in Dublin.

Remember the strategic partnership agreement Petrel and Itochu signed in 2006. Here's the Rigzone article for that:

Petrel Resources and Itochu to Cooperate on Iraq Exploration

Petrel Resources has signed a strategic partnership and cooperation agreement with Itochu Corporation. The strategic partnership will cover future exploration and development activities in the Iraqi oil and gas industry...

The Itochu group is also one of the largest traders of crude oil in the Far East and is a major force in numerous business sectors, including areas such as steel pipe supply, finance, logistic and plant businesses.

The cooperation agreement between Petrel and Itochu will initially cover work on the Merjan oil field under a Technical Cooperation Agreement with the Iraqi Ministry of Oil, subject to applicable laws. Itochu will also have a first look at future Petrel projects in the Iraqi oil & gas upstream sector.

As part of the cooperation agreement, Itochu will contribute towards Petrel's historic costs in the Iraqi oil & gas sector and will cover a fixed share of the costs of the current study.

Petrel Managing Director David Horgan welcomed the development:

'We have gotten to know Itochu well over several years. There is a near perfect fit with Petrel. Itochu, one of Japan's leading companies, with its strong balance sheet and long-term perspective, is a strong player in upstream oil and gas business. There is no better partner for us in our quest to expand and deepen our Iraqi activities."
Posted at 16/4/2024 21:38 by kdickson
Summary of posts Tues 14th April

There are 20 companies applying for the 30 licence areas (16 areas in LR5+ and 14 areas in LR6) so that's perhaps 11 companies going for the 16 LR5+ areas. And we know that Petrel were the only company that had applied for Merjan as DH stated at the AGM.

April 18th is the deadline for submission of bid bonds. A bid bond needs to be submitted to the Iraqi Petroleum Contracts and Licensing Directorate (PCLD) to guarantee the winning bidder’s obligation to sign any Contract.

The bid envelopes will be opened immediately by the PCLD following the deadline for their submission, which is April 28-29th for LR5+ (weekend after next).

Note: Winners may not be announced publicly at that point.

-----------------

Why is Petrel the only company [probably] to submit a bid for Merjan area?

1). Merjan is viewed as a minor field by larger IOC's so 'not worthwhile' developing. They're more interested in fields capable of several 100,000's bopd. Merjan supposedly could 'only' reach 100,000bopd.

2). Petrel (and Itochu) have studied the Merjan/Kifl area for years (at the IOM's invitations) so they've kind of cornered the market in terms of technical/geological detail so to speak for this licence. I'm sure other potential bidders know this so hopefully will not think they have a chance of competing.

3). The Iraqi's want "partners, not bosses" (DH's words) and that's the relationship that Petrel have been developing for 20+ years. Including employing local people for security, etc. Again, other companies will be aware of this strong bond so probably dont think its worth 'competing against the favourite'.

-----------

PS 100,000 bopd would be worth £5+ share price when fully developed.

------------

Petrel have already brought a lot to the Iraqi's table and the Oil Ministry have great respect for them, especially a certain senior IOM official who has close ties. This is a key point as it is not always what you know but who you know!

Also, being an Irish company is another very key point as it is not just about economics in the region but politics.

Contractors and suppliers have already been identified for Merjan.

-------------

...then there's also the 'rebranded' Block 6 to look forward to in LR6 ;)
Posted at 06/12/2023 12:50 by kdickson
Hi Felix,
I think you're referring to this previous post (21114):
----------

Hi Felix,

Here's a post I did back in July on my thoughts for potential share price if Merjan was won and fully developed (was post 20948).

I think, on the day of announcement, we'd be well over 10p and breaching 20p within days. Obviously a couple of years to get to multi-pounds.

----- Post 20948 -----


Merjan share price

The value to Petrel if we were awarded Merjan-Kifl-West Kifl and it got developed into a 100,000 bopd producer, then that alone would be company changing.

According to the article in my previous post:
"In the hybrid revenue-sharing model, for each barrel of oil produced, 25% would go towards the Iraqi state as a royalty, while the remaining 75% would go towards reimbursing shareholders for capital and production costs and be distributed as revenues".

Assuming Petrel JV'd with Itochu on a 50/50 basis with Petrel as the operator (37.5% each), and after our 'capital & production costs' we had 10% profit, then at 100,000 bopd, the calculation is:

100,000 x 365 days x £50pb x 10% = £182.5m profit per year.

£182.5m / 178m shares = £1.03 eps.

At PE of 6, this would support a price of £6.15 per share.

And a market cap of £1.1 billion.
Posted at 04/10/2023 20:06 by kdickson
Hi Felix,

Here's a post I did back in July on my thoughts for potential share price if Merjan was won and fully developed (was post 20948).

I think, on the day of announcement, we'd be well over 10p and breaching 20p within days. Obviously a couple of years to get to multi-pounds.

----- Post 20948 -----


Merjan share price

The value to Petrel if we were awarded Merjan-Kifl-West Kifl and it got developed into a 100,000 bopd producer, then that alone would be company changing.

According to the article in my previous post:
"In the hybrid revenue-sharing model, for each barrel of oil produced, 25% would go towards the Iraqi state as a royalty, while the remaining 75% would go towards reimbursing shareholders for capital and production costs and be distributed as revenues".

Assuming Petrel JV'd with Itochu on a 50/50 basis with Petrel as the operator (37.5% each), and after our 'capital & production costs' we had 10% profit, then at 100,000 bopd, the calculation is:

100,000 x 365 days x £50pb x 10% = £182.5m profit per year.

£182.5m / 178m shares = £1.03 eps.

At PE of 6, this would support a price of £6.15 per share.

And a market cap of £1.1 billion.
Posted at 28/9/2023 09:16 by kdickson
While the share price is taking a rest, might be a good time to review the historical build up to the Merjan submission in the 5th licencing round annex. Repost of post 20922 from July 2023 below (with additional edits).

--------

I've updated this Merjan post from May 2022 (post 20441) as I believe it's even more relevant today...

Looking at the timeline of all references (and clues) to Merjan, I am convinced that Merjan, Kifl and West Kifl are the fields that Petrel were having 'commercially sensitive' talks about with the Iraqi authorities in summer in 2020 (as stated by DH in the Q&A's of July 2020).

It just makes complete and obvious sense (to me at least!) that this should be the case once you absorb all the 'evidence' below as a whole. Why would the Iraqi's ever consider giving it to any other company?


2004 to 2007 - Petrel successfully completes TCA study work on Merjan with Itochu as 50% partner.

2008 - "We anticipate further progress and involvement in this area...when it is legally and politically possible".

June 2009 - "All existing data was reviewed and analysed, and development proposals prepared...a PSA on Merjan would build on the work done by Petrel".

2009 to 2011 - Petrel continue to state they are interested in exploring and developing Merjan.

Dec 2018 (Irish Independent) - "Once a contract is awarded to the group 'on favourable terms', it is ready to start work".

Sep 2019 (Interim Report) - "...the Merjan oil discovery...which has recently been packaged with Kifl & West Kifl oil fields, has arisen as a possible development project".

The Merjan oilfield and surroundings...has recently been covered by 1,000 sq km 3D seismic...by the Iraqi Oil Exploration Company. This enhanced data should further minimize the risks & costs of development.



Nov 2019 (EGM) - Tamraz states "a project that was in Petrel but not developed for political reasons, should start developing".

Dec 2019 (Irish Independent) - "The Iraqis...are one of the top producers again with great potential. We will definitely have several attractive opportunities there."

"We have got a couple of projects that will come back to life hopefully" [KD: Merjan, Block 6, Subha & Luhais?]

May 2020 (Placing RNS) - "Discussions may cover Petrel's past studies on the Merjan-Kifl-West Kifl area...".

June 2020 (email from DH) - "...it is clear from the Merjan logs (on the 1982 Mobil well) that the oil reservoir is much greater than the numbers [760m barrels] calculated" [KD: > 1 billion?]

July 2020 (DH questions and answers):
Q: Has Merjan perhaps become a very realistic opportunity again?
DH: Inshalla. With updated fiscal terms, Merjan becomes attractive.

Sep 2020 (Interim Report) - "With appropriate terms and pipeline access, the Merjan oil-field seems poised for early development".

Sep 2021 (Interim Report) - At the invitation of Iraqi Government officials in 2020, Petrel submitted a proposal to develop the Merjan oil field, in accordance with applicable laws and the Iraqi Model Contract.

And from June 2023 AR, these key bits:
 - The most immediate opportunity lies in bidding for exploration contracts in upcoming bid rounds [KD: plural!!]. Under the current Iraqi model contracts, exploration attracts a higher Rate of Return than development Technical Service Contracts.

 - Iraq interests (as of May 2023): Western Desert Block 6 and prior TCA study on Merjan Oil field with 50% Itochu interest.

- The Iraqi authorities had suggested that Petrel initially target “exploration of blocks in the western desert of Iraq, and present
past studies done on the Merjan-Kifl-West Kifl discoveries, and Petrel’s work on the Mesozoic and Paleozoic plays in the Western Desert”.

Then, in the next paragraph (still in context with previous paragraph):
Our updated development proposal requires an economic Iraqi Government contractual model in order to proceed with necessary funding and / or attract equity partners.

Finally, from Sept 18th Interims:
-- Petrel has fine-tuned its Iraqi proposals [for Merjan], following feedback. We have contractors and suppliers identified but seek improved fiscal terms to attract partners.[UPDATE: PSA model actively being discussed by IOM right now]

-- An updated Merjan oil field development proposal has been submitted to the Ministry with a view to finalising a licence agreement.
Posted at 28/7/2023 18:45 by f31
Last year I left the AGM with a feeling of a complete standstill and not much hope for anything any time soon.
Yesterday I came away a lot more positive, and in fact I feel rather optimistic that we will see some positive developments coming up for Petrel – and in a not too far distance.

Summary of the AGM:

GHANA:
I would say – forget about Ghana for the moment.
As per David in AGM…….
“There is a deal to be done, but the expectation on the other side is for pay-off’s - which we can’t do”
They have also been asked to consider alternative other acreage than the current one, perhaps with better chance of title, but we might struggle to find farm-in, so not attractive.
For the moment they are therefore hanging in and insisting on their current acreage “agreementR21; and see how it all packs out.
But I would say – don’t gamble on any Ghana development any time soon.

IRAQ:
Stumbling block has always been the fiscal terms.
But David on the new TOTAL Contract…..
”Not seen official details but media reports suggest that up to 30% of produced oil may be available for profit sharing, which means that the game could be up again.
And as a result of that we also re-established contact with Itochu”
PS: the current world-wide boss of Itochu Gas, was previously a 1 year intern with Petrel in Dublin !!

David….
“We have a very good local representative, politically involved, who had made considerable progress and wanted Petrel to submit a very specific proposal.
So they have submitted a proposal for Merjan, and they have been told to be available in September for meetings on the proposal.
David:……
“It will all depend on which terms can be negotiated.
If it’s not sufficiently attractive, we won’t be able to farm it down – and if the rate of return is not sufficient, we won’t be able to fund it independently”

So basically, we’ll now have to wait and see what will develop in September, and if negotiations can be successful.
As of February this year, no other competitors had (yet) submitted a bid for Merjan.


GENERAL:
As per above, I feel we MIGHT get a reasonable shot at Merjan, so that’s good.
But in addition to that ………;
(and this is the reason why I feel rather optimistic ………;..)

First off: David stated that their priority is now to increase the share price, and he could not have been clearer that this was not only in the interest of us as shareholders, but obviously also in the interest of their own large shareholdings and that of their family.
As you know, altogether they have a very large combined shareholdings, so yes, a good share price is very important to them as well.

The quickest way to achieve this goal is to use Petrel as a liquid LSE trading vehicle, very much like the Tamraz model
(David:……; “The Tamraz model in itself was a good model, but unfortunately Tamraz could ultimately not deliver).

So they have prioritised this road during this year, taking into account lessons learned during Tamraz.
David…..
“We have had multiple approaches - there is substantial interest in Petrel as a Shell – never mind the operational activities, because of the low number of Shareholders and of which a very high % of it is under control of the Board”
“we’ve been concentrating on looking for an Investor that brings Cash, who will have less than 30%, and that is a story that can be told in a way that in turn is attractive to new Investors”
“So there is interest, it’s a clean vehicle to use, and we WILL do something, and we HAVE opportunities to do things.
“The share price should rise substantially”


Personally my gut feeling is that they are in reasonably advanced negotiations with Investors that want to take a say 30% share in the Petrel LSE vehicle.

PS: according to David – oil demand will grow for another 20 years
Petrel Resources share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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