AAZ

Anglo Asian Mining Plc

99.50
-3.50 (-3.4%)
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Anglo Asian Mining Plc LSE:AAZ London Ordinary Share GB00B0C18177 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -3.50 -3.4% 99.50 36,999 09:23:56
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
98.00 101.00 101.50 99.00 101.50
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Miscellaneous Metal Ores,nec 92.49 7.36 6.40 16.42 113.82
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
12:43:39 O 1,000 100.80 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
07/6/202310:42Wanobi & AAZ55,168
06/6/202313:15One of the largest developing gold properties in Eur or Asia57,260
13/4/202317:38Anglo Asian Mining Charts44
20/7/202212:37⚠️ WARNING ⚠️ 10
15/4/202213:57Anglo Asian Mining PLC - gold and copper in Azerbaijan23

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Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
11:43:40100.801,0001,008.00O
11:20:2198.351,7901,760.48O
10:29:3798.35360354.06O
10:29:2698.0032.94O
09:44:0998.15492482.90O

Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) Top Chat Posts

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Posted at 02/6/2023 11:33 by lefrene
2sporrans, the old mind trap, If I sell now can I buy them back for much less in 3 months time? What if gold/copper prices should surge whilst I'm out, and the AAZ price get away from the low levels. All the unknowns. I see it as a straight asset hold, if it drops I'll pick up more by selling other less certain holdings. In the meantime the divi rewards me for leaving the capital here, and the commodity assets provide insurance against currency declines.
Posted at 02/6/2023 08:54 by 2sporrans
Digger

Hardman Valuation for 'Gedabek' of 74p.

Well back in Feb 2021, Hardman-Mylchreest valued AAZ - essentially Gedabek - at 181p

I have comments to make on this.
Just not right now.

For the mo. here's his note header [ring bells?}:

"Prodigious cash generation – REDUX

AAZ is a highly cash-generative miner of gold, silver and copper from three mines
in Azerbaijan, where it has a track record of close cooperation with the
government. The company listed on AIM in 2005, produced its first gold in 2009,
paid a maiden dividend in 2018 and produced 69,091 Gold Equivalent Ounces
(GEOs) in 2020 (at budgeted metal prices). AAZ is progressing multiple projects to
expand production at its flagship Gedabek and others (see below) in Azerbaijan
and (potentially) Ireland. We will review our DCF valuation of 181p per share
following AAZ’s production guidance update expected in March 2021."

Posted at 02/6/2023 08:50 by wanobi
just got to wait for this seller to clear DP,,, short term, without much buying, the share price will be at the mercy of the seller,,, as we all know,,,, short term share prices can do anything,,, but, longer term the trend should be up,, provided AAZ management executes the plan and no black swans appear!!!! this is all stuff we all know only too well in this game :-) :-),,, but still frustrates one if one let's it do so :-) LOL :-),,,, 'oh what a game this is'... GLA LTH's Cheers Wan :-)
Posted at 17/5/2023 06:07 by 2sporrans
pt

"Bit surprised the consensus here is so happy."

To the extent it is happy, that comes from growing expectations for 2024 onwards, essentially driven by far superior feed from Gilar 24+25, before Xarxar led copper expansion 2026>.
Maybe the FYs have been fairly well received, as AAZ are holding the 8c divi; at least they are for June - 4c.
Sure, it is uncovered.
AAZ are looking to the much greener pastures of Gilar.
Hence, i guess they are likely to hold the divi at 4c for October too.
The fat [cash balance] is being partially burnt to maintain this payout.

So if one is a 'believer' in Gilar, one is maybe feeling 'happy' about the divi; i suggest some feel more relief than joy.
The happiness comes [or will] from the prospect of Gilar, not the old depleting mines which these results are commensurate with.
And as DP says, hence, most here were expecting.
All rear view mirror.

Myself, I was arguing for a cut in the October divi last Summer/Sept, as i could see ~what was coming - as revealed in these FYs. Mooted 3c back then.
But.
That was before a tremendous series of drilling results emerged for Gilar; Gilar only came to the fore from beginning of Nov.
Before that, Zafar was the main attraction; now it has been relegated to a back-up feed mine for Gilar, notwithstanding the feed from Zafar looks to be decidedly superior to what the existing mines produced in 2022, let alone 2023.
Once the Manat dropped for me wrt Gilar, I became sanguine about AAZ 'looking across the barren divide' and maintaining the 8c divi.

Looking at it another way, we have a very conservative estimate of fair share price value of 214p out of Hardman.
Bear in mind they are only attributing 76p of that valuation to Gedabek - inclusive of Zafer and Gilar.
What would thye est. for just the existing mines?
30p? 25p?
Methinks Gilar alone will likely end up justifying fully £1 sp, all on its own, when all the exploration done. That extending lower section is key.
71p is attributed to Xarxar+Garadagh; 61p to Demirli.
I accept that maybe Demirli is rather a bird in the bush att.
So, those who attribute little value to 'Jam tomorrow' may look askance at the Hardman take and see grains of salt in the jam.

Each to their own; it makes the market.

Here's that mines projection chart from the AAZ April pres. again:



Just to put my take above into context.

Posted at 15/5/2023 08:58 by 2cmb
Good morning Wan .
I hope you had a good weekend.
What are your predictions on AAZ share price ?? I have to load up some more of these beauties. Where arw the sellers hiding now ??
Story of my life sometimes !!
ATB.

Posted at 12/5/2023 08:44 by wanobi
AAZ share price seems to be gradually gaining positive momentum DP :-) Cheers Wan :-)

edit, I say that based upon the trades and how the share price has reacted rather than the chart at the moment...

Posted at 11/5/2023 12:19 by petersinthemarket
HOC has suffered a serious share price fall recently, after revealing BoD changes and unwelcome reductions in REV, PBT, EPS and cash, with an increase in debt. However, HOC is far from the basket case that the stats imply and there is a lot of gold in their assets.

There are some local dangers. Peru suffers from significant social unrest following the detention of former President Castillo and the appointment of new President Dina Boluarte and there is also serious labour unrest due to the reluctance of mining companies to share profits with their local ethnic workforce

But, the share price is fighting back strongly, making for a very volatile chart, which might be of interest to traders.

Unfortunately, there is no working HOC thread, so if anyone knows how to set one up and run it, they could be doing everyone a favour.

Posted at 10/5/2023 19:33 by bumpa33
Coverage of LBE from Gary Newman…



A couple of months back I covered Longboat Energy (LBE) as highly speculative buy, and since then the share price has moved far quicker than I expected, and is currently pretty much double the level that I tipped it at.

Given the way that the markets are at the moment, and with very few smaller companies being able to actually retain any large upwards share price momentum for longer than a brief spike, you could be forgiven for thinking that the best move now would be to sell up and bank profit.

Whilst we may well see the share price fall a bit from here in the absence of any further short term news, and when traders become bored and move onto the next ‘best thing since sliced bread’ share, I actually think that there is potentially plenty more to come if you’re prepared to hold longer term. Certainly the downside risks from such a low market cap level are worth taking, given the potential upside from the new partnership and funding which the company has recently announced, and which could be company-making.

Prior to this news the company had seen its share price gradually collapse over a period of time, to the extent that its market cap had drifted to around £6 million at a share price of a little over 10p.

Given that its exploration drilling has had very mixed results – some of which were actually very promising – and had cost a lot of money to carry out, it probably shouldn’t have been too much of a surprise that it was trading at the level where it was, albeit with some more funded drilling to come this year.

I pointed out in my last article that it had already been successful at Kvelkje and had the nearby Lotus prospect to drill in early 2024, and that if that was also successful then I’d be surprised if Equinor didn’t do some deal to acquire both as part of its Ring Vei Vest development hub. Another positive is that the directors/management here are all former Faroe Petroleum, so are well connected in Norway and know the business inside out.

I still expect that any such deal for those licences won’t conclude until Lotus is drilled though.

In the end news came completely out of the blue and from an unexpected direction, when an RNS came of a new deal with JAPEX to form a joint venture for the Velocette prospect – via Longboat JAPEX Norge AS – and that JAPEX would be making significant investment in the JV, as well as providing it with a large finance facility.

When it comes to funding, Longboat has always done pretty well, since announcing a £52 million finance facility that would cover around 75% of all its planned drilling costs. Whilst a facility of that size might seem unusual for a company the size of Longboat, when it is all being used for exploration drilling, the lender is actually well protected as it is basically funding a proportion of the work which it is able to fully recoup at a later date via the tax breaks on offer in Norway – JAPEX will be able to benefit from similar as well with its newly announced facility for the JV.

The deal with JAPEX will see the JV receive a staged initial investment of $50 million, along with a finance facility for $100 million to fund any development or acquisitions made by the JV, over a five year term. In return JAPEX will receive 49.9% of the JV, which was previously Longboat Energy Norge AS and holds all of the Norwegian licences.

This deal, which is expected to complete during Q3, will see JAPEX invest $16 million into the JV initially; followed by a further $4 million subject to the completion of the acquisition of a producing asset, which is currently being assessed; and then up to $30 million based on the outcome of the Velocette exploration drill, which is also taking place in Q3.

So, as it stands, Longboat has effectively given away 49.9% of its existing discoveries and licences, in return for around $8 million up front – the Longboat share of the $16 million initial cash injection into the JV.

Which may well be – alongside the fact that the transaction doesn’t complete until Q3 – why the share price didn’t move even higher on this news, as few seem to have any patience these days to even wait for a few months! Plus of course the money going directly into the JV and none of it flowing back to the PLC.

The deal does seem to be of benefit to both parties though, as JAPEX look to be getting a share of the Kvelkje discovery and Lotus licence, which seem likely to have value to Equinor at some point, plus the drilling of the Velocette well as that was already funded anyway, and which all seems to justify the drilling risk when taken alongside the fact that the $30 million investment is contingent on the outcome of Velocette. It is also getting relatively risk free future drills as well – with the JV hoping to carry out one to three of these per year, and with the goal being significant production in the next three to five years – as a lot of the money linked to the finance facility will be recouped at a later date via tax breaks on Capex.

For Longboat, it is getting a significant partner that has the sort of financial clout that it needs to make real progress at its licences – assuming of course that future drilling and appraisal is positive and they proceed to development – and whilst it did already have a finance facility that allowed it to carry out its drilling plans, this new arrangement sees it forming an actual partnership with the financier, as opposed to just borrowing some money, as it has been doing.

It has had to give away 49.9% of its Norwegian licences in return for this, including discoveries such as Kvelkje, but it all comes down to whether it is better to have 100% and no partner, or a big partner onboard to help develop these discoveries or sell them onto Equinor at probably a better price than Longboat would get on its own. For me the latter is the best option longer term and most likely to realise the most value.

So, overall, I think that this is a good deal for Longboat and offers the potential for it to be trading at much higher valuations in the future, even just based on current licences and activity.

At this point some of you will be eager to point out that I’ve not mentioned Malaysia, and the main reason is that I see it as largely irrelevant at this stage and with an exploration drill on this recently acquired Sarawak block unlikely to take place until the end of 2024 at the very earliest., it is unlikely to have much real lasting impact on the share price until that drill happens.

Even after the share price rise, the market cap is only around £12 million, at a share price of 21p, and even if the Velocette drill fails – it has a 30% CoS and is targeting gross mean oil in place of 177mmboe – I can see enough potential from the other assets, with the involvement of JAPEX, to still see little downside from here.

In the meantime, the shares could drift a bit lower – I see it as highly unlikely that the share price will get back to anywhere close to where it was trading prior to the JV announcement, unless there is negative news of some sort – and if you’re sat on the sidelines then you may get a chance to buy in cheaper when all the noise stops. But regardless of that, I still see upside from the current share price level.

Posted at 07/5/2023 09:51 by odsjp
Another article in a similar vein

hTTps://businesscloud.co.uk/news/why-didnt-lse-spot-wandisco-scandal-thg-boss/

THG founder Matt Moulding has renewed his criticism of London’s public market.

The outspoken entrepreneur has been increasingly critical in recent months over the behaviour of hedge funds, media and bank analysts, who he has accused of creating negative coverage against UK-listed companies, including THG.

Last month he took to LinkedIn to claim: “The purpose of ‘the game’ is simple: bet that a share price will fall, and make sure you win the bet by doing everything possible to discredit the company.”

On Thursday he took to LinkedIn again to say he’d contributed to a review by Lord Hill into proposed reforms to the UK listing regime but said the changes will do little for the London Stock Exchange (LSE).


In particular, he questioned the LSE’s governance processes, citing the recent example of the Sheffield tech firm WANdisco, which is being investigated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

An internal probe found that recognised revenue of almost $15 million for FY22 was false, and that sales bookings of around $115.5m recorded in FY22 were also false.

Moulding wrote: “It’s laughable. Where were all the hedge funds, analysts and pundits ahead of Tesco’s £250m accounting scandal a few years ago? Or when BT recently had a similar issue in its Italian subsidiary? How did these LSE governance structures prevent the 2008 banking scandals, PPI or Libor rigging? And WANdisco a few weeks ago – really?

“There are barely 200 companies on the LSE with at least £1bn market cap, and none of the ‘highly skilled’ City professionals noticed the alleged massive fraud in WANdisco, as one of London’s 200 most valuable.

“It’s not like it’s a complex business – after a decade on the LSE it had c£10m in revenues, and then suddenly announced revenues didn’t exist after all.

“And so, the idea that the standards on the LSE are above other markets is ridiculous.”

THG has seen its share price fluctuate wildly in recent days following speculation of a possible takeover by Apollo Global Management.

It’s currently back up to 110p, having dipped to 90p at 4pm on Thursday. In October 2022 it dropped to 32p.

Earlier this year Moulding used his 51st birthday to reveal he was saying goodbye to the ‘stiff upper lip’ and would be more outspoken on LinkedIn.

In his latest blog Moulding welcomed proposed changes by the financial watchdog the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) but questioned whether they went far enough.


“The FCA announced it’s reforming itself and pledged to do better in tackling bad actors in the City,” he wrote.

“There were well over 2,000 allegations of foul play lodged with the FCA last year, with the FCA’s own survey finding the vast majority ‘extremely dissatisfied’ with a lack of action or engagement from the FCA.

“Instead, whistleblowers now often turn to the US regulator as a means of bringing an action in London.

“Many doubt real change can happen while the FCA continues to be closely supported by an advisory panel made up of the very people it is policing in the City. Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas.

“And so maybe the key lesson we should take from the US isn’t more rule changes, but giving our regulator the resources to tackle the well-known bad actors using the LSE as their private piggy bank.


“Doubling both staff pay and the team at the FCA would be the best investment we could make in London.

“A regulator that protects founders, boards and investors alike, instead of shielding investment bankers, hedge funds and pundits, is what it takes to make the LSE attractive once again.

“Hey, but what do I know – other than being a customer of the LSE and the target market for city reforms.”

Moulding has been subjected to intense scrutiny ever since the Manchester-headquartered eCommerce giant floated on the stock market in 2020 at a share price of 500p and embarked on a strategy of aggressive acquisition.

He received criticism from investors and the media alike over the fact that he operated as both CEO and executive chair. He was also criticised for holding a ‘golden share’ which potentially allowed him to block a hostile takeover.

Things reached a nadir in 2021 when THG held a capital markets day, which turned into a PR and financial disaster and the company’s share price bombed. Not even the fact that Moulding gave up his ‘special share’ rights and beefed up the corporate governance could stem the flood of negative stories.

Posted at 05/5/2023 08:06 by captain james t kirk
Apologies for the length but it's behind a pay wall:

Brace yourselves, the banking crisis is just getting started
Desperate attempts to assuage fears cannot hide evidence of a system on the brink

BEN MARLOW
CHIEF CITY COMMENTATOR
5 May 2023 • 6:00am
Ben Marlow
If Jamie Dimon was pondering a career change as a fortune-teller, he’d be wise to stick to the day job. On the other hand, if someone of Dimon’s stature could be so wrong about the banking turmoil that continues to sweep across the US, a cynic might ask whether he was still the right person to be running one of the world’s largest financial institutions, particularly when that organisation is right at the centre of Government-led efforts to prop up the whole system.

Having ridden to the rescue of California lender First Republic over the weekend, JP Morgan’s superstar boss had a message for financial markets: its shotgun takeover of First Republic heralded the end of the crisis. He should know better than to be drawn into the realms of speculation about things he has no control of but then Wall Street is so deferential to figures like Dimon that they start to believe they can walk on water.

Still, the speed with which Dimon’s words have come back to haunt him comes as a shock. A mere 48 hours later, and it looked as though the game was up for yet another regional American bank – the fourth since the end of March.

On Wednesday, shares in PacWest plunged by as much as 60pc in after-hours trading, prompting the bank to announce that it was seeking salvation either through an emergency cash call, or, like its stricken rivals, in the arms of a bigger competitor.

The following morning, Western Alliance was forced to deny it was exploring a fire sale despite its share price plummeting 40pc at one stage. Zions Bancorp and Comerica were also under the microscope as investors continued their frantic efforts to work out where the weakest links in the financial system lie hidden.

As with those that failed before it, two things stand out with PacWest. Firstly, this is a bank that had already shored up its balance sheet by raising a $1.4bn (£1.1bn) lending facility from Apollo-backed investment firm Atlas share price Partners. And yet, that clearly wasn’t enough to assuage concerns about its true financial state.

When that failed, it resorted to old-fashioned words: “Our cash and available liquidity remains solid,” the bank said. That also fell on deaf ears. Events followed a similar pattern at Signature Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, and First Republic before all three ended up in the hands of the US banking regulator.

Bank share prices have collapsed

Line chart with 6 lines.
Regional US banks share prices (USD)
View as data table, Bank share prices have collapsed
The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time. Data ranges from 2022-05-04 00:00:00 to 2023-05-04 00:00:00.
The chart has 1 Y axis displaying values. Data ranges from 6.42 to 94.21.
End of interactive chart.
Dimon can take some comfort in the fact that other major names have offered similarly ill-judged and premature reassurances.

On Wednesday night it was the turn of Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell. The banking system is “sound and resilient” he declared, presumably to the bewilderment of PacWest shareholders who will almost certainly be wiped out if the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is forced to step in again.

Powell’s soothing words seemed all the more peculiar given that its decision to raise borrowing costs again risks crystallising further material bank losses.

Still, you’d think these illustrious figures would have learned their lesson. “Americans can rest assured that our banking system is safe,” Joe Biden told the American people in March as Silicon Valley Bank unravelled. Yet the dominoes have continued to fall.

The reality is that the establishment is in no position to offer any guarantees. Such reassurances are founded on the same rigid metrics that regulators judge all big banks upon but the experience of Credit Suisse showed that those measures are far from fool-proof.

The Swiss giant met all of the strict capital requirements that were imposed on the industry after the financial crash. According to the rules, it had sufficient capital, ample liquidity, and was adequately funded but in the end it was crushed by sentiment and fear.

The problem is that once investors lose confidence, it is desperately difficult to regain, and regulators quickly become helpless bystanders. Similarly, for all the regulation that was ushered in following the financial crash of 2008, when customers take fright, bank runs are practically impossible to stop.

First Republic plunge sparks banking fears

Line chart with 140 data points.
First Republic share price
View as data table, First Republic plunge sparks banking fears
The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time. Data ranges from 2022-10-07 00:00:00 to 2023-04-28 00:00:00.
The chart has 1 Y axis displaying $ per share. Data ranges from 3.37 to 147.
End of interactive chart.
In an era of social media, smartphones, and online banking, the system is arguably more vulnerable than ever despite the intense scrutiny that followed the financial crash.

This is particularly true of America’s sprawling mid-tier banking sector, which has managed to escape the same oversight as its more muscular rivals after regional lenders successfully persuaded the Fed and the FDIC that they were not systemically important.

They also claimed that over-burdensome regulation would be a brake on growth and competition. Is it any wonder then that so many appear to have indulged in such reckless lending?

Meanwhile, for every optimist, it is just as easy to find a pessimistic one such as Robert Kaplan, the former president of the Dallas Federal Reserve who thinks “we’re in the early stages, not the late stages” of a banking crisis. Ditto Warren Buffett’s right-hand man Charlie Munger, who has warned that US banks are “full of” bad, yet unrealised commercial property loans.

Likewise, for every measure that supposedly demonstrates resilience, another can be found that rings alarm bells. Academics at New York University estimate unrealised US bank losses to be $1.7 trillion (£1.3 trillion), while the FDIC admits that uninsured deposits at US banks tripled to $7.7 trillion between 2009 and 2022.

Amid such fragility, a proposal to lift the deposit insurance cap from $250,000 sounds like a recipe for even more exuberance.

Evidently, the banking crisis is clearly not over. On the contrary it may just be getting started. The question everyone should be asking is how bad is it likely to get?

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