Ig Design Share Discussion Threads

[davidosh] 15/7/2024 15:02

Join us for a jam-packed MelloMonday tonight from 5:00pm with ex Schroders fund manager Iain Stsples joining us on the BASH when IGR will be one of the companies analysed. The programme for the evening is as follows:

5:00pm Interview with Investor and Ex-Schroders Fund Manager, Iain Staples
5:30pm Company presentation from TEAM plc
6:00pm Company presentation from Velocity Composites
6:30pm Trading update from Time Finance
6:45pm Educational Presentation
7:00pm Company presentation from Coral Products
7:40pm BASH (Buy, Avoid, Sell, Hold) Panel featuring Iain Staples (IGR), Paul Scott (GMS) and Mark Simpson (CAU)

For more information, click here:
There are lots of interesting sessions and all annual pass holders and individual ticket holders will be sent a recording of the show within 48 hours of registering. For half price tickets, use code MMSTOCKO50.

[deanowls] 09/7/2024 15:22

Hopefully they pick up more business by being onshore.

[time 2 retire] 09/7/2024 12:27

IGR ahead of the curve then by exiting China this year...

[albanyvillas] 09/7/2024 12:15

frt


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At southern Chinese Christmas tree maker Golden Arts Gifts & Decor, the mood is anything but festive.

With freight costs rising because of attacks on Red Sea shipping by Yemen’s Houthi militant group, manager Richard Chan said this year was shaping up to be one of the worst in his more than two decades in the industry.

“We are not talking about making a profit this year. We just need to survive,” said Chan. “The Red Sea crisis has been such a headache.”

The manufacturer, which counts Walmart as a client and exports about 80 per cent of its products to the US and Europe, said the attacks had delayed shipments. As a result, his clients have requested orders be shipped up to a month earlier than usual.

The challenges facing Chan’s factory are mirrored across China, where manufacturers said they were struggling to meet shortened schedules as US and European buyers demanded orders be front-loaded to ensure timely delivery for the festive peak season.

[time 2 retire] 08/7/2024 17:48

PUGUGLY, no problem,
a 6 cents share forecast for this year is just over 4.5p so I'm hoping for 1.5p at interims and 3p at full year...

[pugugly] 08/7/2024 17:07

t2r: Thanks for that - Most useful - Was thinking of taking profit but will probably continue to hold. At my risk of course!!!

[time 2 retire] 08/7/2024 15:25

From Masterinvestor,
most of article we already now about so I'm just posting the end.
Nice bit about future dividends.

Management Outlook.

On 25th June on announcing the end March results, Chairman Stewart Gilliland stated that:

“I am proud to share another year of success on the Group’s journey to restore its profits, margins and financial strength, whilst also building a more resilient business model.

The year has also seen the start of balancing our focus on the recovery journey with establishing a longer-term strategy to return the Group to sustainable growth, which is requiring a lot of consistent effort from everyone across the organisation.

So, I would like to thank my colleagues throughout the Group for their hard work in delivering this year’s strong results and the progress on our strategy.
With an invigorated senior leadership across the Group, our financing secured and a strengthened and stable Board, the Group is well-set to complete its recovery over the coming year; and embark on an exciting growth-focused strategy for the years beyond.

Whilst the global political-economic backdrop could be better, the continued support of our customers and suppliers, who are working closely with our talented teams, positions us well to deliver better shareholder value.

Finally, I thank our shareholders for their continued patience and support as the business re-positions itself for growth off a more resilient foundation.”
Brokers’ Views
Analyst Mark Photiades at Canaccord Genuity Capital Markets rates the group’s shares as a Buy, looking for 325p a share in due course.

His estimates for the current year to end March 2025 are for $825.0m ($800.1m) sales, with adjusted pre-tax profits jumping nearly 40% to $36.0m ($25.9m), helping to generate earnings of 24c (16c) and enabling a dividend of 6c (nil) per share.

For the next year he goes for $855.0m revenues, with $43.0m profits, 28c earnings and 8.1c per share in dividend.

Further down the line Photiades looks for the year to end March 2027 to produce $900.0m sales, $50.0m profits, 33c earnings and 10.1c dividend per share.

He notes that given the group’s management’s confidence in delivery of a record group PBT outcome in the current year, largely through self-help margin and cost actions, he believes the recent price reaction post results (-17%) highlights a further buying opportunity.

The analyst concludes that the current valuation looks anomalous and compelling given the improving margins, combined with forecast cash generation and a strengthening balance sheet.

At Progressive Equity Research its analyst is David Jeary, his estimates are fairly similar to Photiades.

Jeary notes that profitability and earnings grow at a much faster rate than the top line, reflecting further benefits from the group’s self-help initiatives alongside positive operational gearing.

He is estimating that over the three years to 2027 the group will show a compound annual growth rate in its fully adjusted pre-tax profits of 24.5% – that really is a quite impressive rate.

Three analysts follow the group, each rating the shares as a Buy – with an average Price Objective of 302p.
My View
A CAGR of 24.5% over the next three years is good enough for me.

At the start of 2020 this company’s shares were peaking at almost 800p each.

Since then, it has been in a state of corporate repair, especially over the last couple of year, with its Management’s remedial actions beginning to show through quite beneficially.

Three weeks ago, the £198m capitalised group’s shares hit 240p, before easing back to a 182p low in the middle of last week.

Now at 197p they look to me to be an excellent purchase for investors taking both a short-term and medium-term view.

I now set a Target Price at 245p, which could well be achieved before the group’s AGM in mid-September, if not soon afterwards.


hxxps://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/ig-design-group-a-bargain-opportunity/

[pugugly] 06/7/2024 21:26

se81. The Cana analyst I would suggest has been sloppy in just using the term FOB without specifying which class of FOB (origin or destination) From the description after FOB it appears destination.
When I used to import I always specified delivered and usually to our warehouse (CIF) CARRIAGE, INSURANCE,FREIGHT.. Just using FOB used to imply buyer responsible for freight but terms appear to have mutated.



".FOB Origin: The buyer takes responsibility for the goods as soon as they leave the seller's location. The buyer bears the costs and risks associated with transportation from that point forward.
FOB Destination: The seller retains responsibility for the goods until they reach the buyer's destination. The seller bears the costs and risks associated with transportation up to that point.

[se81] 03/7/2024 08:32

Some colour on freight costs from Cana this morning

"Concerns over rising freight costs appear to be a potential reason for the price weakness. IGR, like many distributors of product from the Far East was impacted last time global freight rates spiked in 2021/22. However, as management reiterated at the FY24 results last week, the Group has worked hard in recent years to take actions to simplify its supply chain. The sourcing process is now much more consolidated and integrated which has helped reduce the number of equivalent containers needed to bring in product to end markets. This also provides earlier visibility of emerging risk. In addition, IGR has more opportunities through its contracts and better engagement with customers to help protect margins. The Group is also managing exposure to sea freight through operating a sizeable portion of its business on a Freight on Board (FOB) basis (~30%), which removes the onus of shipping from IGR. And then there is some protection through pre-contracting rates. There remains an element of exposure to a rising spot rate, which can’t be avoided, but management is comfortable that the business is in a more resilient position today than a few years ago, when it comes to this exposure"

[bubloo] 02/7/2024 10:18

I have exited too. may come back once I indication of next half year results. I think there will some restructuring costs from china and Australia this year and 2026 would be a good year I suspect. Made some profit with exit.

[deanowls] 02/7/2024 09:53

There will also be an upside to this, cheap Chinese imports will become more expensive with longer lead times resulting in more opportunities for manufacturers in country of which IGR are.

[blackhorse23] 02/7/2024 09:23

Switched to RNK [better change to capital gains] 4 brokers issued strong BUY

[aishah] 02/7/2024 09:01

Exiting China in FY25. A few companies have warned recently of the steep rise in freight- SHOE, Tandem, James Latham.

A poster on Stocko was told by his forwarder early last month that costs had risen to 10k per container from China with shortages of containers reported. His forwarder confirmed recently that this is likely to continue for a while.

I have exited here now. GLA

[time 2 retire] 02/7/2024 08:51

We're exiting China, IGRs biggest freight cost I'd imagine so nothing to worry about going forward.

[johnrxx99] 02/7/2024 08:42

Shipping rates are expected to show mixed trends in 2024. Several factors are influencing these projections:

Overcapacity: The container shipping market is facing significant overcapacity, with new vessels entering the fleet faster than demand is growing. This overcapacity is expected to keep freight rates relatively low, as supply outpaces demand​ (UPS)​​ (Seatrade Maritime)​.

Temporary Rate Increases: Geopolitical events, such as attacks in the Red Sea, have temporarily increased freight rates as ships take longer routes to avoid conflict areas. This has led to higher freight rates and time charter rates, although these increases are expected to be temporary and rates should begin to fall once the situation stabilizes​ (BIMCO Home)​​ (Seatrade Maritime)​.

Global Economic Factors: Global economic conditions, including the impact of conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine on oil prices, are also contributing to volatility in shipping rates. These factors could lead to higher expenditures and potential increases in shipping costs​ (UPS)​.

Nearshoring Trends: Companies are increasingly looking to nearshore their operations to reduce supply chain vulnerabilities, which could impact shipping demand and rates. For example, there is a trend towards nearshoring to Mexico by U.S.-based companies, which might affect North American air and ocean freight rates​ (UPS)​.

Overall, while temporary spikes in shipping rates are possible due to geopolitical disruptions, the general trend for 2024 suggests that overcapacity will likely keep rates from climbing significantly in the long term.

ChatGPT.

[s34icknote] 02/7/2024 08:26

Now Luce down

[s34icknote] 02/7/2024 08:24

Shoe down with cargo costs !Is this going to affect igr ?

[deanowls] 26/6/2024 16:25

Great piece and good to know of the potential in the sites they wish to get rid of. That PER drops massively if you take out the cash and tangible assets.

I think they also have plenty of self help to grow sales, reduce costs and financing costs, there’s around 14m of dead stock they need to look at.

I asked on the call around them approaching smiths news who want to offer more to the 1000s of news agents and I think there would be a lot of advantages there if a catalogue was produced online with stores and distribution for cards, one offs and seasonal items delivered to the shop. At least very little to lose trying on a small scale.

[pugugly] 26/6/2024 16:17

Thanks Martin.

[hastings] 26/6/2024 15:47

I appreciate that most will have gleaned plenty from the results release along with the Investor Meet. Hopefully though, my piece will a add a little more to the story.https://martinflitton1.wixsite.com/privatepunter/post/igr-wraps-up-the-year-with-impressive-numbers-26-06-24

[wad collector] 26/6/2024 13:52

Feels wrong to be celebrating Xmas crackers in midsummer...

Still deeply underwater myself here ; acquiring in 2021 was bad timing....

[bigbigdave] 26/6/2024 12:09

Buyers returning :o)

[tomps2] 26/6/2024 09:08

IG Design Group (IGR) 2024 Full Year Results presentation - June 2024

IG Design Group CEO, Paul Bal and CFO, Rohan Cummings present the group’s results for the year ended 31 March 2024, followed by Q&A.

Watch the video here:

Or listen to the podcast here: