Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Price (GKP)

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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd LSE:GKP London Ordinary Share BMG4209G2077 COM SHS USD1.00 (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +3.50p +1.56% 228.50p 212,768 10:05:43
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
227.50p 229.00p 231.50p 225.50p 225.50p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 196.47 62.50 27.32 8.3 524.2
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Bp (BP.), Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA), Petrel Resources (PET), Spitfire Oil (SRO)

Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) Latest News

Gulf Keystone Petroleum News

Date Time Source Headline
01/5/201911:33UKREGGulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. 2016 Value Creation Plan
26/4/201908:38ALNCGulf Keystone Petroleum Gets USD15 Million Payment From Kurdistan
26/4/201907:12ALNCFAlliance News Flash Headline
26/4/201907:01UKREGGulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. Shaikan Payment Update
24/4/201912:33ALNCBlackRock Brings Gulf Keystone Holding To 5% From Below Threshold (ALLISS)
24/4/201907:26UKREGGulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. TR-1: notification of major holdings
23/4/201909:54DJFRLa pression des USA sur l'Iran soutient les valeurs pétrolières en Europe
17/4/201911:52ALNCBlackRock Lowers Gulf Keystone Petroleum Stake Below 5% (ALLISS)
17/4/201907:00UKREGGulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. TR-1: notification of major holdings
12/4/201907:00UKREGGulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. TR-1: notification of major holdings
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Date Time Title Posts
24/5/201909:55THE NEW GKP / Drilling for Super Giants (moderated)586,458
24/5/201909:16The New GKP - Holding For Multibaggers3,148
16/5/201916:13GKP - On Balance - Moderated45,249
18/4/201907:17The New GKP - Holding For Multibaggers14
18/4/201906:01GKP / Drilling for Super Giants (Moderated)84,343

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DateSubject
24/5/2019
09:20		Gulf Keystone Petroleum Daily Update: Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker GKP. The last closing price for Gulf Keystone Petroleum was 225p.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd has a 4 week average price of 222.50p and a 12 week average price of 215.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 303.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 164.80p.
There are currently 229,429,566 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 909,563 shares. The market capitalisation of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd is £525,393,706.14.
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25/4/2019
09:55		atino: Oooh 😲...some of you’s longer term holders...may not like this article 🤦‍♂;️ ! (Quote, 25/4/17) “The Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Price Is Down 97% So Some Shareholders Are Very Salty” 😖 While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited share price has gained 24% in the last three months 🤫🙌. But spare a thought for the long term holders, who have held the stock as it bled value over the last five years 🤔💭💭. Indeed, the share price is down a whopping 97% in that time. The recent bounce might mean the long decline is over, but we are not confident. The million dollar question is whether the company can justify a long term recovery. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/gulf-keystone-petroleum-lon-gkp-060127985.html
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17/4/2019
08:26		chinese_takeaway: Gulf Keystone Petroleum: Potential To Double Revenue By 2021Apr. 17, 2019 1:25 AM ET | About: Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY), GUKYFVasily ZyryanovVasily ZyryanovLong/short equity(173 followers)SummaryIn 2018, Gulf Keystone Petroleum increased revenue and net income supported by the elimination of payment delays from the KRG.The Kurdistan-focused company has come through years of financial distress and uncertainty and ultimately recovered.The essential revenue driver is the Shaikan oilfield development that secures the production jump to 55 kbopd in Q1 2020.Its enormous levered FCF margin of 54.9% deserves high praise.With P/E of 9.4x, PEG of 0.2, and 18.3% FCF yield, the firm is undervalued.Iraqi Kurdistan-focused Gulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF, OTCQX:GFKSY) presented its 2018 results on March 28. Compared to 2017, the figures improved substantially, both on the P&L and the cash flow statement. In the previous years, the firm faced times of skyrocketed share price, then slump and painful recovery. Now it appears that investor sentiment has started to revive after the firm declared its first dividend to be paid in 2019 and shed light on a massive development program in the Shaikan oilfield in Kurdistan that would drive production, revenue, and, possibly, valuation higher in the medium term. Also, apart from stellar growth prospects, the firm has a P/E of only 9.4x and an attractive PEG of 0.2. What is more, according to the recently filed form TR-1, BlackRock (BLK) has increased its share ownership to 5%, which, in my view, hints that the company sees an upside. Now let's go down to details.Profits & lossesDuring the latest oil slump, GKP was deeply in the red. In 2015, the firm had even negative EBITDA. On June 2016 trailing-twelve months revenue amounted to $158.14 million, while the bottom line was $(368.83) million.GKP revenue and earnings historySource: Simply Wall St. Data from S&P Capital IQConstant delays in payments from the Kurdistan regional government put liquidity under strain. A collapse was in the air, but ultimately, the disaster was staved off. The price the company had to pay for staying afloat was the painful capital restructuring through the conversion of $500 million of debt into equity. The massive dilution was an inevitable consequence that hammered shareholders.But it appears that the days of drama were left behind. In 2017, the firm became profitable, and net income even overlapped the top line. By now there are no signs of financial distress or balance sheet fragility. In 2016, after capital restructuring, the debt plummeted from $554.05 million to $98.89 million. Since then the company has amassed a considerable cash stockpile of $296 million, which more than fully covers total debt of $7.8 million. With annual EBITDA of $149.3 million, debt servicing is not an issue.GKP historical debt Source: Simply Wall St. Data from S&P Capital IQIn 2018, the firm had revenue of $250.55 million compared to 2017 revenue of $172.37 million. The net income also improved substantially, rose from $14.13 million to $79.89 million. An essential matter is that operating expenses are meager, only $3.2 per barrel, slightly higher than $2.7 in 2017. Production averaged 31,563 bopd. By now the company produces pure oil with "no signs of water or gas breakthrough" (see p. 12 of the presentation). But there were a few drawbacks. Export pipeline disruptions in August and the shutdown in February impacted production. However, in March 2019 the situation normalized and the output jumped to 33.1 kbopd. Nearly all oil is exported via tie-in at PF-2 into the export pipeline, but ~3,000 bopd are trucked to Fishkhabour. During the event, GKP assured that the trucking would be eliminated this summer.Growth prospectsIn fact, GKP is a single asset company. The Shaikan, the firm's treasury trove, is located ~37 miles to the north-west of Iraqi Kurdistan capital of Erbil. GKP has an 80% interest and operatorship, the partner is Hungarian MOL. Fruitful drilling in the area that ended in oil discoveries and declaration of their commerciality impressed the market and secured the share price rally to the all-time high in 2012. Now GKP has a clear and concise growth blueprint based on the development of the field. The firm promised to reach production of 55 kbopd in Q1 2020. The next milestones (see p. 38) are 75 kbopd (by ~2021), 85 kbopd (by ~2022), and 110 kbopd (by ~2024). According to the guidance (see p. 39), facilities of Phase 1 will be completed in Q4 2019, while drilling will likely be finished in Q1 2020. It is worth noting that field development plan with facilities necessary to reach 75, 85, and 110 kbopd has not been approved by the Kurdistan Ministry of Natural Resources yet "due to insufficient assurances on the elimination of flaring." However, without delays and drawbacks in the field development and other exogenous factors that are not quite easy to foresee, in 2021 the London-listed firm can show revenue of $537.2 million (anticipated by analysts, see the revenue chart below), compared to $250.55 million in 2018. By the way, a similar revenue shift is expected in cases of Lundin Petroleum (OTCPK:LUPEY) and Aker BP (OTCPK:DETNF), the beneficiaries of the oil-rich Johan Sverdrup field in the North Sea; I covered the companies a few times, for instance, in the articles published in January and March.Free cash flowInvestors who pay attention not only to accounting profit and EPS but also to free cash flow will be certainly impressed by the data they could find on the CFS of Gulf Keystone Petroleum. 2018 net operating cash flow amounted to $158.2 million, while cash investment in PP&E and intangibles equaled $20.7 million. Hence, levered FCF was $138 million and FCF margin equaled a breathtaking 54.9%. In fact, it is not a trivial task to convert more than half of revenue into free cash, and the companies that manage to do so should be appreciated.On April 15, 2019, GKP had a market capitalization of £573 million, which equals $750.4 million. Hence, by now levered free cash flow yield is standing at ~18.3%, even higher than the 14% yield of DNO ASA, which is indeed undervalued.DividendDuring the Capital Markets Event, GKP shed light on its newly established dividend policy (see p. 57). It promised to distribute no less than $25 million per financial year. Also, in "periods of strong cash flow generation" the dividend might be increased. In 2019, the total dividend will equal $50 million (25 ordinary DPS + 25 million supplemental). In my view, the shareholder rewards are secure as with FCF of $138 million, dividend coverage is not an issue. On April 15, the share price on the LSE equaled £2.5. With DPS of ~£0.16 (considering 229,317 thousand of shares outstanding and USD/GBP of 0.76373) dividend yield amounts to ~6.6%.GKP is not the only Kurdistan-focused E&P company that has recently restored dividends. DNO ASA and Genel Energy have also decided to establish shareholder rewards (see details on Genel's decision here and DNO's announcement here), as their current resilience of financial position, stabilization in the region of operations, and growth prospects secure the ability to return excess cash to shareowners.ValuationApart from FCF yield, there are a few indicators that signalize that Gulf Keystone Petroleum is cheap. First, compared to the UK-market median P/E of 16.22x, GKP with its ratio of only 9.4x looks underappreciated. At the same time, the US O&G industry median Price-to-profit currently equals 12.56x. The next ratio I suppose worth taking into account is PEG. In fact, PEG calculated on the basis of 2019 anticipated EPS will not be genuinely inspiring, because it is negative, caused by an expected decline of profit (2018 EPS of $0.38 vs. 2019 anticipated EPS of $0.20). However, increased production from the Shaikan will impact net income in 2020, and in this sense, analysts expect 2020 EPS to equal $0.72, and 2021 EPS to amount to $1.01.GKP EPS consensus estimates Source: Simply Wall St. Data from S&P Capital IQSo, PEG adjusted for forecasted 2020-2021 EPS equals 0.2x, indicating that GKP is ideally apt for the Growth at a reasonable price strategy.Its closest peers are Kurdistan-focused DNO (OTCPK:DTNOF) and Genel Energy (OTCPK:GEGYF). I have addressed the valuation of DNO ASA in the article published earlier this month. In my view, all three companies are currently underpriced. Genel, for instance, has P/B of only 0.6x. The main culprit of such attractive multiples is indeed the market's skepticism. It probably hints that it is still not entirely confident in the predictability of the region given the complexity of its future and other intricacies. However, the sentiment might change if the companies will systematically reach their targets and persuade investors that the region is now more stable and predictable.ConclusionThe expected noticeable shift in production, the introduced dividend, and more certainty in cash payments from the KRG have attracted investors' attention to Gulf Keystone Petroleum, which previously grappled with severe challenges. Now it is evident that with the development of the Shaikan oilfield without backlogs, the company will be rich in cash. Of course, GKP is indeed not immune to the commodities market sentiment. In this sense, Brent price remains the key catalyst to the share price movement.Note: The stock exchange of primary listing is the LSE; ordinary shares traded in London have higher liquidity than the ADR.
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17/4/2019
07:31		walval: Gulf Keystone Petroleum: Potential To Double Revenue By 2021 Apr. 17, 2019 1:25 AM ET | About: Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY), GUKYF Vasily Zyryanov Vasily Zyryanov Long/short equity (173 followers) Summary In 2018, Gulf Keystone Petroleum increased revenue and net income supported by the elimination of payment delays from the KRG. The Kurdistan-focused company has come through years of financial distress and uncertainty and ultimately recovered. The essential revenue driver is the Shaikan oilfield development that secures the production jump to 55 kbopd in Q1 2020. Its enormous levered FCF margin of 54.9% deserves high praise. With P/E of 9.4x, PEG of 0.2, and 18.3% FCF yield, the firm is undervalued. Iraqi Kurdistan-focused Gulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF, OTCQX:GFKSY) presented its 2018 results on March 28. Compared to 2017, the figures improved substantially, both on the P&L and the cash flow statement. In the previous years, the firm faced times of skyrocketed share price, then slump and painful recovery. Now it appears that investor sentiment has started to revive after the firm declared its first dividend to be paid in 2019 and shed light on a massive development program in the Shaikan oilfield in Kurdistan that would drive production, revenue, and, possibly, valuation higher in the medium term. Also, apart from stellar growth prospects, the firm has a P/E of only 9.4x and an attractive PEG of 0.2. What is more, according to the recently filed form TR-1, BlackRock (BLK) has increased its share ownership to 5%, which, in my view, hints that the company sees an upside. Now let's go down to details. Profits & losses During the latest oil slump, GKP was deeply in the red. In 2015, the firm had even negative EBITDA. On June 2016 trailing-twelve months revenue amounted to $158.14 million, while the bottom line was $(368.83) million. GKP revenue and earnings history Source: Simply Wall St. Data from S&P Capital IQ Constant delays in payments from the Kurdistan regional government put liquidity under strain. A collapse was in the air, but ultimately, the disaster was staved off. The price the company had to pay for staying afloat was the painful capital restructuring through the conversion of $500 million of debt into equity. The massive dilution was an inevitable consequence that hammered shareholders. But it appears that the days of drama were left behind. In 2017, the firm became profitable, and net income even overlapped the top line. By now there are no signs of financial distress or balance sheet fragility. In 2016, after capital restructuring, the debt plummeted from $554.05 million to $98.89 million. Since then the company has amassed a considerable cash stockpile of $296 million, which more than fully covers total debt of $7.8 million. With annual EBITDA of $149.3 million, debt servicing is not an issue. GKP historical debt Source: Simply Wall St. Data from S&P Capital IQ In 2018, the firm had revenue of $250.55 million compared to 2017 revenue of $172.37 million. The net income also improved substantially, rose from $14.13 million to $79.89 million. An essential matter is that operating expenses are meager, only $3.2 per barrel, slightly higher than $2.7 in 2017. Production averaged 31,563 bopd. By now the company produces pure oil with "no signs of water or gas breakthrough" (see p. 12 of the presentation). But there were a few drawbacks. Export pipeline disruptions in August and the shutdown in February impacted production. However, in March 2019 the situation normalized and the output jumped to 33.1 kbopd. Nearly all oil is exported via tie-in at PF-2 into the export pipeline, but ~3,000 bopd are trucked to Fishkhabour. During the event, GKP assured that the trucking would be eliminated this summer. Growth prospects In fact, GKP is a single asset company. The Shaikan, the firm's treasury trove, is located ~37 miles to the north-west of Iraqi Kurdistan capital of Erbil. GKP has an 80% interest and operatorship, the partner is Hungarian MOL. Fruitful drilling in the area that ended in oil discoveries and declaration of their commerciality impressed the market and secured the share price rally to the all-time high in 2012. Now GKP has a clear and concise growth blueprint based on the development of the field. The firm promised to reach production of 55 kbopd in Q1 2020. The next milestones (see p. 38) are 75 kbopd (by ~2021), 85 kbopd (by ~2022), and 110 kbopd (by ~2024). According to the guidance (see p. 39), facilities of Phase 1 will be completed in Q4 2019, while drilling will likely be finished in Q1 2020. It is worth noting that field development plan with facilities necessary to reach 75, 85, and 110 kbopd has not been approved by the Kurdistan Ministry of Natural Resources yet "due to insufficient assurances on the elimination of flaring." However, without delays and drawbacks in the field development and other exogenous factors that are not quite easy to foresee, in 2021 the London-listed firm can show revenue of $537.2 million (anticipated by analysts, see the revenue chart below), compared to $250.55 million in 2018. By the way, a similar revenue shift is expected in cases of Lundin Petroleum (OTCPK:LUPEY) and Aker BP (OTCPK:DETNF), the beneficiaries of the oil-rich Johan Sverdrup field in the North Sea; I covered the companies a few times, for instance, in the articles published in January and March. Free cash flow Investors who pay attention not only to accounting profit and EPS but also to free cash flow will be certainly impressed by the data they could find on the CFS of Gulf Keystone Petroleum. 2018 net operating cash flow amounted to $158.2 million, while cash investment in PP&E and intangibles equaled $20.7 million. Hence, levered FCF was $138 million and FCF margin equaled a breathtaking 54.9%. In fact, it is not a trivial task to convert more than half of revenue into free cash, and the companies that manage to do so should be appreciated. On April 15, 2019, GKP had a market capitalization of £573 million, which equals $750.4 million. Hence, by now levered free cash flow yield is standing at ~18.3%, even higher than the 14% yield of DNO ASA, which is indeed undervalued. Dividend During the Capital Markets Event, GKP shed light on its newly established dividend policy (see p. 57). It promised to distribute no less than $25 million per financial year. Also, in "periods of strong cash flow generation" the dividend might be increased. In 2019, the total dividend will equal $50 million (25 ordinary DPS + 25 million supplemental). In my view, the shareholder rewards are secure as with FCF of $138 million, dividend coverage is not an issue. On April 15, the share price on the LSE equaled £2.5. With DPS of ~£0.16 (considering 229,317 thousand of shares outstanding and USD/GBP of 0.76373) dividend yield amounts to ~6.6%. GKP is not the only Kurdistan-focused E&P company that has recently restored dividends. DNO ASA and Genel Energy have also decided to establish shareholder rewards (see details on Genel's decision here and DNO's announcement here), as their current resilience of financial position, stabilization in the region of operations, and growth prospects secure the ability to return excess cash to shareowners. Valuation Apart from FCF yield, there are a few indicators that signalize that Gulf Keystone Petroleum is cheap. First, compared to the UK-market median P/E of 16.22x, GKP with its ratio of only 9.4x looks underappreciated. At the same time, the US O&G industry median Price-to-profit currently equals 12.56x. The next ratio I suppose worth taking into account is PEG. In fact, PEG calculated on the basis of 2019 anticipated EPS will not be genuinely inspiring, because it is negative, caused by an expected decline of profit (2018 EPS of $0.38 vs. 2019 anticipated EPS of $0.20). However, increased production from the Shaikan will impact net income in 2020, and in this sense, analysts expect 2020 EPS to equal $0.72, and 2021 EPS to amount to $1.01. GKP EPS consensus estimates Source: Simply Wall St. Data from S&P Capital IQ So, PEG adjusted for forecasted 2020-2021 EPS equals 0.2x, indicating that GKP is ideally apt for the Growth at a reasonable price strategy. Its closest peers are Kurdistan-focused DNO (OTCPK:DTNOF) and Genel Energy (OTCPK:GEGYF). I have addressed the valuation of DNO ASA in the article published earlier this month. In my view, all three companies are currently underpriced. Genel, for instance, has P/B of only 0.6x. The main culprit of such attractive multiples is indeed the market's skepticism. It probably hints that it is still not entirely confident in the predictability of the region given the complexity of its future and other intricacies. However, the sentiment might change if the companies will systematically reach their targets and persuade investors that the region is now more stable and predictable. Conclusion The expected noticeable shift in production, the introduced dividend, and more certainty in cash payments from the KRG have attracted investors' attention to Gulf Keystone Petroleum, which previously grappled with severe challenges. Now it is evident that with the development of the Shaikan oilfield without backlogs, the company will be rich in cash. Of course, GKP is indeed not immune to the commodities market sentiment. In this sense, Brent price remains the key catalyst to the share price movement. Note: The stock exchange of primary listing is the LSE; ordinary shares traded in London have higher liquidity than the ADR.
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07/4/2019
11:52		atino: Hey man 👨🏻...I never knew you were good at algebra 😜 ! 🙇 Debt levels matter when valuing the business because in theory GKP’s share price represents the equity portion only, but its important to account for debt, as using leverage alters the capital structure, and influences the risk and performance of the business. By using enterprise value (EV) rather than current share price, the multiple incorporates debt, allowing us to recognise both sources of funding. This is frequently used in the EV/EBITDA multiple. GKP’s EV/EBITDA = US$683.54m / US$0 = 6.6x The 6.6x average multiple for the industry indicates that GKP may be priced at a discount, which differs from the overvaluation GKP’s PE ratio of 53.31x (23x industry average) 😤 https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-gkp/gulf-keystone-petroleum-shares/news/should-you-be-tempted-to-sell-gulf-keystone-petroleum-limited-longkp-at-its-current-pe-ratio/amp/ The enterprise value (EV) is an alternative valuation metric that reflects the market value of an entire company in a way simple market capitalization figures can't. You may have seen it described as a theoretical purchase price for an entire company because it adjusts for acquiring companies' tendency to absorb outstanding debts and pocket any available cash. At the very least, you should understand that enterprise values generally favor companies with lots of cash and little debt. To see why this is so, let's examine enterprise value vs. market cap.... https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.fool.com/amp/knowledge-center/what-is-enterprise-value-and-why-is-it-important.aspx
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28/3/2019
19:29		atino: (Quote) FTSE 100 behemoths such as Royal Dutch Shell (LSE: RDSB) have delivered patchy share price growth lately, in fact Shell’s stock is at similar levels to five years ago. However, such firms will keep your portfolio’s engine running with generous dividends, in this particular case paying around 6% a year. However, some of you will prefer to head for the wilder fringes of the industry in search of far juicier returns from the likes of Gulf Keystone Petroleum 🙇😉 LSE: GKP), the oil and gas exploration and production company focused on the Kurdistan region of Iraq, which has published its full-year 2018 results today. Uplift Its share price has flatlined for the last three years and is down 4% today, a judgement that seems harsh as it posted “record profit after tax and declaration of first dividend on strong financial performance“. The group also said it is on track for a “material uplift in production” to 55,000 barrels of oil per day in the first quarter, as production picks up. Gulf Keystone posted record revenue, up 45% to $250.6m. It also posted $79.9m profit after tax, a substantial increase on $14.1m in 2017. The group had a year-end cash balance of $295.6m, up from $160.5m. It completed a $100m refinancing last July and says under current assumptions, all phases of its low-cost onshore Shaikan expansion programme are fully funded. Dividends too Management is now planning to pay $25m in ordinary dividends this year and “given its current financial strength”, the board is proposing to complement this with a $25m supplemental dividend. The group’s share price has picked up this year, but clearly investors wanted more. Companies like this will always be risky, and City analyst reckons earnings per share could fall 26% this year, before rebounding by a mighty 126% in 2020. Gulf Keystone Petroleum looks promising for those with strong nerves, trading at 10.8 times forward earnings, while Alan Oscroft claims it could be the oil stock bargain of the decade. Sure of this one If that’s too wild and woolly for you, there’s always Shell. A massive £90bn giant with a finger in almost every energy pie (from renewable to shale), it showed its mettle during the recent oil price slump by continuing to pay its dividends. Cost-cutting has whittled down its break-even oil price to $50 a barrel and it could go even lower, which means the cash should be flowing with the price now at $66. The other big threat to profits is the shift to renewables, but Shell is looking to head that off by investing billions in the new energy sector and has ambitions to become the world’s largest electricity supplier by the 2030s. A global slowdown or recession would hurt, but at least you aren’t overpaying for its stock at 11.7 times forward earnings. Earnings per share could drop 4% this year but jump 18% next, and in the meantime there’s that yield. Currently a forecast 6%, with cover of 1.4. I reckon almost every portfolio should have a splash of Shell. https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/03/28/heres-why-id-buy-the-undervalued-shell-share-price-and-6-yield/
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26/3/2019
12:01		atino: (Quote) “Why I think the GKP share price could be the best oil stock bargain of the decade” 🙇 In the depths of the oil price slump, I was pondering how best to play the recovery that I was confident would happen. The best long-term approach, I reckon, is to buy shares in BP or Royal Dutch Shell, put them away and just forget about them. But I also fancied a more geared prospect, albeit with more risk, with a small amount of my cash. I went for Premier Oil (LSE: PMO), but I can’t help feeling that Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LSE: GKP) could be the best mid-cap oil prospect out there right now. Updates Since I last looked at GKP in January, we’ve seen Shaikan payments continuing nicely, with a total of $35.3m being paid by the Kurdistan Regional Government for crude oil sales during November and December 2018. But the firm’s update earlier this month made for more interesting reading. The 2019 de-bottlenecking programme at Shaikan is on track to achieve a production target of 55,000 bopd by the first quarter of 2020. And a new pipeline should be completed by the middle of this year, which will eliminate the need for trucking of crude oil. Combined, those two developments should make for smoother and less risky production and shipping. The firm’s relationship with the Kurdistan Regional Government is continuing to look healthy too, as the two parties have signed a renewal of their crude oil sales agreement, which is now effective up until 31 December 2020. And even though production was hit in the first quarter by work to install larger bore tubing to enhance production, the company is still expecting to record gross average production of 32,000 to 38,000 bopd in 2019. Premier The big story at Premier Oil has been full-year results released in early March, which chief executive Tony Durrant summed up with: “2018 saw higher production, positive free cash flow and a return to profitability,” and that “the group is ahead of plans to restore balance sheet strength and remains focused on consistently delivering free cash flows.” With Premier’s focus necessarily being on its debts, that has to be good news. The company achieved a record production of 80.5 kboepd, and posted an after-tax profit of $133.4m — and that’s a much better result than 2017’s post-tax loss of $253.8m. Cash Operating cash flow grew by 64% to $777.2m, and that helped get year-end debt down to $2.3bn from $2.7bn a year previously. Premier is certainly not out of the woods yet, with the oil price only tentatively holding up at still under the $70 per barrel that I’d feel more comfortable with. World production is still expected to be in surplus throughout 2019, and any fall in demand as global economic growth appears to be slowing would exacerbate that problem. Future oil price weakness would put more pressure on smaller oil companies, but as my colleague Roland Head estimates, Premier should be cash flow positive at about $45 per barrel. I think that provides a sufficient safety margin for Premier Oil shares, and I’m becoming more confident that I’ve made a good 10-year investment. https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/03/25/why-i-think-the-gkp-share-price-could-be-the-best-oil-stock-bargain-of-the-decade/
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09/3/2019
15:30		0ili0: 2trikky?5 Feb '10 - 11:34 - 69713 of 84332?0  0 0RE-POSTWORTH READING AGAINfrom iii by GramachoDate posted Thursday 22:58 Subject PI Update and Conversation with JG Fantastic selection of posts on the Proactive presentation and done so promptly. By the time I got home you had reported on nearly everything so I will concentrate on what has not been covered and just re-emphasise a couple of points that have already been made. In addition I will attempt to clarify a few things that Ewen had said and not said during that evening by reference to a phone call that I had with John Gerstenlauer , the COO, today. PI Presentation and Evening Discussion• The first thing I learnt was how to pronounce " Shaiken"!• They were completely surprised that DGA included the speculative gas volumes underneath the drilled intervals. He believes they made the estimate by looking at the Jabal Kand well logs.• I asked him whether they had conducted an assay on the oil recovered from the well tests but he wasn't able to say so we are no wiser on the potential discount to Brent.• John G's estimate of 30-35% RF for Shaikan comes from his experience on a heavy oil field in Yemen that is naturally fractured. • Sh-2 will cost about $25MM. Ewan said they are going to modify their drilling technique to try to improve drilling rates.• During the presentation he pointed to two locations for future appraisal wells one of which was on the eastern edge of the structure. He did not mention the shallow well in the presentation that we have seen tender information on and said afterwards that the well is not confirmed, they are only thinking about it (but this was later clarified by JG).• I was surprised to learn that the seismic line spacing on Shaikan is 4km. You could miss half the N Sea satellite tie backs with that spacing. But of course Shaikan is 35-40 km long so they have 10 lines across it (Nth – Sth). This helps explain the uncertainty in closure contour. The mapping program has to interpolate/extrapolate across the 4km spacing or beyond the final line. BBBS or Ads_lon could comment more but I recall course 2-D surveys typically have 1 -2 km line spacing.• The Etamic deal was done about the end of June. He described how delays occur in obtaining approvals/signatures in terms of how difficult it is to get time with those with the authority to approve deals. The latter two points and their concern about seeps on Shaikan possibly equating to the structure having leaked (down to a residual, immovable oil saturation) do explain the Etamic deal. GKP must have lacked confidence in the seal to have offered the terms that they, sorry he, got. • I found Ewen a very straight guy, nothing in the body language to worry those concerned about the Etamic deal.• It was really good to hear that GKP took planning for the well tests very seriously. Due to the concerns about the H2S they went to the extent of planning to temporarily re-house the nearby villagers. Ewan said the last thing they wanted to do was gas the Kurds! Apparently they had set a precedent as no one had talked to the local authority before about H2S issues. It is an important operational point. There would be serious implications if a major incident took place and it is better they err well on the side of safety.• The 13Bn OIP P1 has still not been explained properly and I think Ewen contributed to the confusion. I will cover this in a separate note because the key learning could be relevant if you hold other small oil stocks, especially Kurdistan ones.So a great evening, it was good to meet you dhatrader and although we didn't exchange names i know I must have met several more of you based on the same conversations we heard whilst pinning Ewen against the wall during the drinks/canapé session. Oh nearly forgot to mention the CNN interview. Ewan said that Todd was not aware the camera was running, he thought they were having an informal discussion.Phone Call with JG Today• JG was bullish on the recovery factor based on his experience with the Masik? Field in Yemen which he described as starting out at 240,000 bopd and still producing about 200,000 bopd 18 years later. It was of a similar gravity and very low GOR but the wells still produced at high rates through the fracture network. However this must be going back a few years as I can't find any mention of it and the entire country only produces 400-500,000 bopd nowadays. We also discussed recovery mechanisms but he asked for his speculative comments not to be put in a blog. • He was also confident that the drilling performance would improve markedly on Sh-2 now they know what they are dealing with. There was a lost circulation zone at about 500m that caused a lot of difficulties. If this is known ahead of time normal procedure would be to plan the casing program with this in mind and run casing once through the zone and cement off the trouble zone behind pipe. If you have not planned for this and do set pipe this means that you have used up one of your casing strings and of course the subsequent hole size is reduced. The consequence is that you have one casing string too few and run the risk of not being able to get to TD. GKP elected not to run pipe and soldiered on to the next planned casing point running into difficulty drilling ahead. They will amend their casing program on Sh-2 to avoid the difficulties of Sh-1.• We also talked about the famous pressure gradient plot. He said the pressure information was extremely good and there was high confidence in the data. He inferred that DGA had seen it and in their report they refer to GKP's pressure build up analysis but don't say that they have interpreted it independently. He also said they could see tidal effects which is a bit strange in the middle of the desert!• JG said they were mostly focused on proving areal extent in Sh-2 and not actively searching for the OWC. It would be ideal for the biggest movement in share price if they could position it sufficiently down dip to do both. It will be down dip but finding the OWC does not seem to be in the top priority at the moment.• It was good to hear GKP have a few people with H2S experience. He was involved in developing the record highest H2S property in the US, 86% H2S. Nasty stuff!• He confirmed Ewen's comments about the DGA gas estimates. There was a very good correlation between the JK-1 well and Sh-1 even though they are 26km apart. The high P interval in Sh-1 is a thick interval in JK-1 and led to DGA's confidence to issue the very significant gas estimates. GKP are planning to have the capability to handle higher pressures than they saw at TD in case they were still in a transition zone when they had to abandon drilling so they should be able to get into the Permian.• The 5000bopd rates shown for the Butmah in a couple of the recent presentations are a typo. They estimated the rate as nearer to 2000bopd even though it did not flow to surface.• The test in Sh-1 will comprise a separate 1 day test in each of the DST 2 and 3 intervals. DST 2 only flowed at 120 bbl/d and DST 3 was the Butmah. An ESP will be used to pump the intervals to demonstrate that they can be produced at commercial rates. The extended test will be on the DST 1 interval in the Sargelu that produced at 7400 bbl/d. He implied they would not be pumping this interval which infers that the well was choked back on test if they they think it is capable of the 10,000 bbl/d that has been mentioned consistently in presentations.• JG was very confident that they would drill the shallow well once the Sh-1 well is put on long term test. I said this would be a useful addition to the OIP at which point he laughed. Apparently they feel (rightly) that they have found a massive amount of oil but every time he speaks to a PI they want more (lol). • JG said that he has never seen a well like this in his 35 yrs (me too) and that they will be writing papers about the technical analysis of it for years to come. Apparently they all were walking around the office looking like they had won the lottery as the well unfolded.• On Sh-1 MOL were good partners and didn't hassle GKP to issue information. On AB-1 MOL are drilling it as a tight hole. JG said they were trying to repay the favour and would issue an RNS when it was required by AIM rules but it sounded like they wouldn't be trying to broadcast at every opportunity. They will be negotiating the amount of information to be released.• Finally he mentioned, as did Ewen, that they were looking for opportunities to acquire additional interest in other licences. A good guy, very accessible. I was most impressed, I called the London office this morning and got a call back within an hour or so from the US at what must have been about 05:30 a.m. That's being pretty responsive to a shareholder call.Regards,Gramacho
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07/3/2019
10:59		tess_tickle: MARKET MAKERS TRIM GKP SHARE PRICE TO HELP MARKET THEMSELVES
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06/3/2019
19:31		0ili0: Oilman63 - 11 Jul 2015 - 15:34:32 - 432252 of 567401 THE NEW GKP / Drilling for Super Giants (moderated) - GKPHere's a copy of the letter that the Mrs has just posted out to the action group. Although she's a little cheeky and uses some of my comments, I thought it would be fair for all to see....Just one other point to make. Andrew Simon pretty much gave my Mrs his undivided attention before and after the AGM.... It must have been the dress that did it"It's a new dawnIt's a new day.... and I'm feeling good!Hello Action Group, it's been awhile! Just giving you an update after I attended the GKP AGM in Paris on Thursday as I know few investors were able to attend.Have you ever woken up in the morning, pulled back the curtains, the sun is shining, the sky is blue and the smell in the air is sweet? That's how i'm going to describe my AGM experience, albeit the chirping birds might come along and softly coat me with something unpleasant - that's the GKP share price and while that is largely unpleasant right now I couldn't help but smile on Thursday as that day had been a long time coming!A couple of us were sat in the bar on Wednesday night when along came Phil Dimmock and Jon Ferrier. After awhile Jon and Phil came and sat with us. What a breath of fresh air!On first impressions Jon isn't far from being a model CEO.He has had many years dealing with Ashti and knows him very well. Knows the business inside out, was the person responsible for moving Maersk in to Kurdistan so knows the area well and delivered his Syrian project on time and on budget despite very difficult circumstances.I asked Jon if he had any other commitments and he stressed that Gulf Keystone Petroleum will be his only priority, his full time job and I believed he takes it very seriously and is willing to give it his full commitment. Jon intends to spend 1 week out of every month in Erbil to maintain his relationship in Kurdistan and to keep up to date and in touch with the business. Not a yacht or a blackberry to be seen!He expressed empathy for some of the positions shareholders found themselves in and without question plans to overhaul Investor Relations as well as to provide opportunities for shareholders to meet with Company Directors and Officials so that they can feel confident in the way the company is progressing and to feedback any concerns of their own that they may have.The over-arching message that came across was that this man has a conscience and as such recognises his responsibility to and has a respect for his shareholders.On the other hand that doesn't make him a push over by any stretch of the imagination. Both him and Sami are very focused, very clear, very switched-on and very driven. The Dynamic Duo.They both set out their very clear vision for the future,- explaining that every barrel of oil sold so far in 2015 has been paid for- that they continue to negotiate with the KRG regarding the outstanding money owed- that expansion plans can only be considered when arrears are paid (or a clear plan is in place showing how they will be paid)- that while the company is up for sale, they will not accept just any offer - ALL the staff that I spoke to at the AGM stressed that the asset is very good, our problems stem from a lack of payment- that they intend to wrap up sales negotiations soon so that serious interest can either make a realistic bid or if not, that the company can focus their energies directly back in to the company.- a board aligned with shareholders, holding stock of their ownIt was accepted that it would not be in the KRG's interest to see us fail, they too want to see Shaikan and GKP do well.From general chatter, I picked up that our peers do class Shaikan as World Class and I think it was announced on the Wednesday that Kurdistan were going ahead with selling their own oil.All in all, despite the bird poo (the share price) I couldn't help but feel optimistic and relieved that we have the makings of a team that are aligned with us, shareholders and I think / hope that this could be the start of something special!So a big THANK YOU to team SAG, The picture that was painted on Wednesday and Thursday was the vision I had hoped for when SAG started and although it's taken a long time - they do say the best things are worth waiting for!-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------After the AGM a few shareholders asked about SAG and whether they could join. Initially I said it was pretty much dormant now but on reflection I think it would be a good idea to resume.I don't think any sort of action will need to be taken now if Jon drives his team forward with the vision he has set out, but it would cause no harm for shareholders to get together with a united front and be ready to act should a need ever in the future arise.The Institutional Investors have increased their holdings recently, they have a greater say and are well organised (but also conscientious)The bondholders are organised - look how they negotiated the BER issueBut yet, the retail investors, GKP's largest group of investors are haphazard. Instead of being motivated to influence any kind of positive change they vent their frustrations or make fun at each other over a bulletin board. Some private investors have invested considerable sums of money in to this stock, this is not a way to behave. If they were over charged £10 at a shop they would speak to the shop owner, and if they got nowhere, they'd write a letter - but they'd sort it out. Here people are sat on losses of tens, if not hundreds of thousands and the best they can do is vent at another shareholder or get annoyed. Time to refocus that energy in my opinion, get your energy, like your money well spent. GKP SAG have proved they can be effective, decisive and efficient (getting our resoluntion in in the short space of time we had with the challenges that we faced in getting the paperwork together was a massive acheivement by all involved. It proved dedication and commitment.)So rather than waste our energies, I have set up a new group for EVERYONE to join who wants to - gkpshareholdergroup.boards.net - I hope to see as many of you over there as possible.It's a new dawn for GKPLet's make a new dawn for GKP's shareholders.All views my own, memory the same. Please don't take any of the above as investment advice."
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04/1/2019
19:42		tess_tickle: TIMELINE 2016 GKP SHARE PRICE FALLS TO £2.36 ON DEBT RESTRUCTURE OFFER
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