Rockhopper Exploration Share Chat (RKH)

Share Name	Share Symbol	Market	Type	Share ISIN	Share Description
Rockhopper Exploration	LSE:RKH	London	Ordinary Share	GB00B0FVQX23	ORD 1P

	Price Change	% Change	Share Price	Bid Price	Offer Price	High Price	Low Price	Open Price	Shares Traded	Last Trade
	-0.50p	-2.41%	20.25p	20.25p	20.50p	20.75p	20.00p	20.00p	252,398	16:35:01

Industry Sector	Turnover (m)	Profit (m)	EPS - Basic	PE Ratio	Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers	6.0	79.4	17.8	1.2	92.52

Rockhopper Exploration Share Discussion Threads

Showing 57426 to 57447 of 57450 messages

Chat Pages: 2298 2297 2296 2295 2294 2293 2292 2291 2290 2289 2288 2287 Older

Date	Subject	Author	Discuss
18/7/2017 15:30	Oil price likely to stay low/ go lower I'm not sure any oil stock will be recovering. The US will just keep pumping out as much oil as it can	stocktastic	Read Full Thread Reply
18/7/2017 06:39	sorry guys, I bailed out yesterday-Realised this is just too long term compared to some other opps out there-Good luck all-hope to get back in say 12-18 months time.	mpclag	Read Full Thread Reply
13/7/2017 19:46	Hi Efagie. Fwiw, the FT carries a short paragraph supporting my view. Also in Premier’s pipeline is the $1.5bn Sea Lion oil development off the Falkland Islands, but analysts have questioned whether the company is likely to prioritise the Zama project in Mexico. Mr Durrant conceded on Thursday that there “could be a change” in the order of priority. https://www.ft.com/content/d0dcb596-67a1-11e7-8526-7b38dcaef614	ed 123	Read Full Thread Reply
13/7/2017 19:34	Hi Efagie. I see what you are saying but (in a friendly way) I don't agree. Zama will easily find development backers at $50 oil. Sea Lion is seen (by Durrant) as being risky at $50, preferring minimum $55 oil. As I've said previously, the locations of the two fields make the difference.	ed 123	Read Full Thread Reply
13/7/2017 18:42	UBS still lending alot of shares out but since april theyve gone from 24.7m shares to 25.2m. If my maths is right.	goldieshotz	Read Full Thread Reply
13/7/2017 18:36	Who is saying RKH is a buy at 20p ? Come on	buywell3	Read Full Thread Reply
13/7/2017 17:52	Thanks Ed, your right in my math needs a rethink, i'm adding up all the percentages then deducting, which looks wrong. Though i do think your subtracting opex later is wrong too,,hehe. to the royalty. A royalty is the landowner's share of the gross production, which is free of the costs of production. Though this is not ALWAYs the case, as per earlier. From what your saying its $50- $4 royalty -the opex $10 =$36, then - the 69% = $11.14 a barrel. Sealion. $50-$4.5 royalty. -opex@ $15 say $20 =$30 then - 26% tax = $22.2 a barrel. So for me its still how zama over SLMC let alone the scales of ownership, unless its too the lets not spend anything.. IF as durrent says today re falklands and $55 poo, based on either of our math, zama needs $100 poo..	efagie	Read Full Thread Reply
13/7/2017 16:30	Hi Efagie. Thanks for your update. :-) The opex figure of $10/bbl for Zama I thought was fair. Pemex say that some of their shallow fields are costing less than $7/bbl to operate. Hmmm ... yes, your maths needs a rethink. It's only the calculation, not the underlying assumptions. So, for Zama, $50 oil attracts $4 royalty. Start with $50, minus opex of $10 = $40. Take off tax at 69% leaves Premier with $12.40. Take off that $4 royalty, leaves Premier with $8.4 per barrel. (That's assuming now that the royalty is not tax deductible.)	ed 123	Read Full Thread Reply
13/7/2017 14:43	Thanks Ed, good to see others thoughts.. You're right regards Falkands tax, i went off the top of my head without checking. Your also right regards Mexico and its royalties, in that its flexible up to $65 a barrel. The 7.5 may be right at $45 a b, but would have thought its too 8 at 50, just a guess though. Wrong though on its corporate, at least according to talos. * The Mexican government will receive 68.99% of the profits on the oil, once the consortium recovers its capital and operating expenses. Additionally, while the royalty to the Mexican government is variable, at a $65/bbl oil price, the government would receive 10% of the revenues, before cost recovery and profit oil.* hence why i said 70 to account for some of it, and make the math easier of course;)) Another point if i may is that you deducting the royalties before accounting for its opex. The royalties opex has to be paid for also. Though i will say that from whats seen, Mexico does not allow for deducting that in corporate, where FIG does, at least looks that way with Corporation tax allowances provide for full recovery of costs for: 1-operating expenses 2-exploration and appraisal 3-intangible drilling and development 4-royalties 5-abandonment costs. I don't think thats too all royalties just its opex. Regards opex i used the 8 from the rkh page i had open at the time looking for something else. i see the updated is to $15, though not sure zama will be 10, mainly due to sealion deals being sorted at a low point in POO. Using your matrix. zama. Say 8% royalties. $10 a barrel opex is 20% then the profit tax at 69% adds up to 97%. At $50 poo some $1.5 profit per barrel Sealion. 9% royalty. $15 opex is 30% 26% profit tax, though not accounting for the royalties opex return. thats 9-30-26=65%. maybe 60 when royalty opex is accounted for. But Still $17.5 profit per barrel. And given my math always treat with caution.	efagie	Read Full Thread Reply
13/7/2017 13:36	Thanks, Mariopeter. It's a good read and confirms what I thought would happen (see my post 39979), viz: the Zama discovery is moving Sea Lion lower down in the list of priorities for Premier. Gone is the talk of an all-in cost at Sea Lion of $35/bbl. Gone is the talk of commercial at oil price of $45/bbl. Instead we have Durrant saying Premier is looking for oil at $55/bbl in order to approve the FID for Sea Lion in 2018. Nothing's changed at Sea Lion, it's just that Durrant sees Zama as being a better investment for Premier, imo. (Apologies to holders here. That's my interpretation. Others may disagree.)	ed 123	Read Full Thread Reply
13/7/2017 13:13	Looks like $55 dollar oil is required in the 2020s. Zero of the falklands is in the share price. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-13/falklands-flagship-oil-field-off-target-at-current-crude-prices	mariopeter	Read Full Thread Reply
13/7/2017 10:07	Thanks, Efagie. Good to see your thinking. :-) Please read the following with caution. Happy to be corrected. Regarding taxation, I have Falklands, 9% royalty and 26% tax rate. Mexico's tax regime is complex. Roughly, 7.5% royalty (at $45/bbl) plus 65% of profit, plus some other charges. At $50 oil, and say $10/bbl opex for Mexico (figure from Pemex) and $15/bbl for Falklands (figure from Premier) and after recovering capital costs ... In Falklands, Premier would get $45.5 - 15.0 = $30.5 x 0.74 = $22.5 per barrel. In Mexico, Premier would get $46.25 - 10.0 = $36.25 x 0.35 = $12.7 per barrel. But, other extraction fees would be charged also. Say another $1/bbl, giving $11.7/bbl. (I've assumed royalties are deductable expenses, which may or may not be correct.) Roughly and at $50 oil, Premier would receive post tax about twice as much per barrel in Falklands compared with Mexico. That's just my own calculation, so treat with caution.	ed 123	Read Full Thread Reply
13/7/2017 05:50	Useful discussion there efagie & Ed... I've copied these posts to the PMO thread for some wider input - hope you don't mind.. thanks.	steve73	Read Full Thread Reply
13/7/2017 00:59	Hi Ed, there's a lot to see in what you say, facilities, yes at the falklands they need sorting, part of the reason things are dragging. Argentina? is that an issue now she's gone? they need the business, besides there's countries nearby who are looking to take things on, Brazil? Something i asked at the drilling times, is why do we have to have rigs from the UK. The US has plenty, Noble? The Falklands are already doing a new harbour and a helipad too i think. As to things like warehousing, that'l be done in all likelyhood by say FIH in collaboration with FIG, so not likely to effect rkh/pmo. The other thing would be to the pipe making site, given that will be used by other oilers when things get going, i can see FIH again with some outside company in partnership, again noble energy has its fingers in many pies.. The big issue there is a staff shortage, as in must come from outside, But! will Dos Bocas have the staff available given its already mostly employed? So to developments costs, cheaper? nah, not imo, why. first point is to drilling costs, this zama drill at this point is drilled to some 3400m taken some 55 days to drill & test, though they are going deeper. Sealion was to some 2300m and took less than 40 days, a lot of extra drill costs. Regards the other areas it seem their talking to partial carry costs with the contractors in exchange for a small production percentage. Imo, you'll not get that in Mexico. Another thought is too the POO value, fig oil Brent with Mexico likely US version (name i just can't think of(lol.) Have seen some carp with regards oil value as in zama as light oil, ODD! its api is to some 28 to 30 API. hmmmm, sealions is 29api. So it really comes down too profits per barrel, sealion wins hands down, why? royalty-Mexico gets 10% of the revenues, before cost recovery and profit oil. --------Falklands-9%. Tax on profit oil after development capital spend and opex. Mexico -take just under 70%. Falklands- take 30% i think, though maybe 35. before capex recovery mex10 fig9 Put that in % terms and class opex as the same for both. lets say $50 poo and say $8 opex. costs and tax after capex recovery. .....royalty.....opex..........tax. Mex-10- fig 9,........ both 16%. ......... ,,.............mexico-70%--fig 30 So mexico some 10+16+70=96% @50 POO some 2$ profit per barrel. falklands some 9+16+30=55% @50 POO some 22.5$ profit per barrel All imo, so likely wrong given my math. ;)) ken..	efagie	Read Full Thread Reply
13/7/2017 00:49	Taxes are very different too. Around 69% profit tax, and some 10% royalty in Mexico. So very oommercial, but not very profiable.	rodderz77	Read Full Thread Reply
12/7/2017 22:49	Hi Efagie. It's early days for Zama and I don't have any figures. My comment was based on knowledge of the very different situations of Sea Lion and Zama. Sea Lion is 220 kms from land. There are no facilities (and the nearest country won't do anything to help.) Drill rigs must be brought in from a long distance away = expensive. Everything needed must be brought in and from some distance away. Onshore facilities for the workers will need to be built. Workers will need a higher pay level to compensate them for living on a remote island. Zama is only 60 kms from Dos Bocas (an established oil industry specialist port). There are a dozen or more significant oil fields close by. It may be possible to link into existing facilities. The region has lots of oil workers and equipment, so development and production should be relatively easy. That's my thoughts.	ed 123	Read Full Thread Reply
12/7/2017 22:31	TRUST NOTHING TEMMUJIN posts LOSER lost his home and now LIVING in a VAN If you want to lose your home FOLLOW TEMMUJIN	tevita	Read Full Thread Reply
12/7/2017 22:29	YOU have BEEN BUSY SPAMMING tonight TEMMUJIN you must be DESPERATE	tevita	Read Full Thread Reply
12/7/2017 22:17	VAST could explode tomoro if this is true... HTTP://actmedia.eu/energy-and-environment/vast-resources-confirms-higher-grades-of-silver-copper-lead-zinc-at-romanian-tailings-dam/70316 RELEASED ON 6TH JULY 2017 re VAST but not reported via RNS Vast Resources confirms higher grades of silver, copper, lead, zinc at Romanian tailings dam Thursday, July 6, 2017UK-based mining company Vast Resources said on Monday it has confirmed significantly higher grades of silver, copper, lead and zinc at Faneata tailings dam located near the Baita Plai Polymetallic Mine (BPPM) in Romania, seenews.com reports. Vast Resources started drilling in the area in November 2016 and made 33 surface drill holes, covering 630 metres, the company said in a press release. The results showed a noticeable rise in the average ...	temmujin	Read Full Thread Reply
12/7/2017 21:21	Ed, Premier's Zama field in Mexico will be far cheaper to develop and to operate than Sea Lion. How will it..	efagie	Read Full Thread Reply
12/7/2017 12:40	Yes, Premier's Zama field in Mexico will be far cheaper to develop and to operate than Sea Lion. It is a few years behind, though. Premier is on the hook for hundreds of millions of dollars of Rockhopper's development costs at Sea Lion. So, my guess is that Premier moves even more slowly on Sea Lion. It must surely want to delay having to pay out on its own and Rockhopper's share of an expensive development? Imo, Zama will be the big new project for Premier. I guess Premier continues with the planned appraisal of Zama next year and I'd also expect other exploration prospects on Premier's two Mexican blocks to be accelerated. Some good may come of this for Rockhopper. I think Rockhopper, now more than ever, needs a new partner in the Falklands.	ed 123	Read Full Thread Reply
12/7/2017 12:32	Interesting development with that new discovery by PMO in Mexico.	mariopeter	Read Full Thread Reply

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