Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[scot126] 26/9/2021 13:35

Dear All – a few points in no particular order. 1) Q4 begins on 1/10/21. I can’t believe I’ve even had to consider writing the following few sentences but such is the history of stupidity on this thread by supposed fellow shareholders. The 1st of October does *not* give a green light for the usual numpties to post: “It’s Q4 now, where’s my farm in?” Have a look at last year. Funding for Talitha-A was secured in mid-November and ice road construction started in the first half of December. Impressive. I would be amazed if the company hasn’t set up a similar 'shadow plan' this year with various contractors pencilling in their winter programme just as they did last year. Happy to be corrected but I think Conoco has pulled their plans to be drilling some winter 21/22 exploration/appraisal wells as a direct result of the court decision about Willow? I understand they’re still going ahead with drilling in-fill style production wells within existing fields but it does mean that equipment and contractor teams will be available, as they were last year of course. Good stuff. 2) NoBrain Boru – on the contrary, we *do* know why Farallon is selling. Or at least we know their primary motivation by examining the history of their investment in Great Bear debt (supplemented with research by Darcon and “my” group since January this year). Unlike some posters, I do not for one millisecond believe the ‘big, nasty hedge fund’ Farallon represents some all-knowing, all-seeing third eye. I offer as proof the millions and millions of shares sold by CHONS in the 29p-33p range. Farallon is managing their own risk within the context of their original investment in corporate debt and the subsequent years where they kept GB solvent and then took part in a debt for equity swap in 2019. In addition, there’s an intra-party relationship which forms a sub-plot to the history of their investment. Sure, it may be frustrating but they’re not behaving improperly, nowhere near it. For traders, this may cause consternation. For fundamental investors, it could be (and *is* IMHO) a massive opportunity to pick up stock at an incredibly cheap price whilst being in the rather unusual position of possessing more than sufficient empirical facts and information to make a professional and robust assessment of the risk/reward of the PANR investment case. Here’s an exercise if you have a quick moment? Imagine there’s an RNS on Wednesday this week at 7am. This imaginary RNS announces a farm in or that funds have already been raised - both of which have terms and a dilutionary effect which you can live with, no strong quibbles either way. At the end of the RNS Jay says "all systems go for the winter programme": build ice road, test Talitha-A, drill and test Theta West crest location, drill an Alkaid lateral production well when the rig moves off the ice at the end of the winter season and travels to a roadside pad at Alkaid. Let’s say the price closed at 60p on Tuesday afternoon. My question is, “Where does it close on Friday afternoon once the market, brokers, journos, analysts, social media posters, etc, etc have had three days to digest the news? We know PANR is currently valued at circa 1/3rd of the brokers’ fair value assessment. Surely securing the anticipated winter programme would see the market cut the discount to fair value? Could I see the share price heading to a 50% discount to fair value or better? Without doubt, IMHO. Perhaps focus on the exercise I outline above and just let the BoD get on with delivering the solutions to enable such an RNS to be published? 3) FYI - price of ANS West coast crude was $76.84 per barrel on 23/9/21. Excellent backdrop v's last year. 4) Hi doublestexan and WesTx – posts #17309 and #17310: thanks for the extra info about Conoco and Concho. I remember reading about it at the time but thanks for the reminder. The way Conoco are positioning themselves v’s their peers, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them doing very well indeed for the remainder of this (super)cycle? As for Alaska, Conoco produces c.40% of the oil which enters TAPS every day so I’m not expecting them to de-emphasise that region, WesTx, not at all. Looks like they’re going to focus on getting Willow permitted and we’ll see how they’re looking after that’s (hopefully) sorted? In the medium to long term, I confess I am fascinated by the quandary which appears to be confronting the TAPS owners. *If* PANR proves capable of producing a large, sustained volume of light oil from their reservoir(s) over a multi-decade timeframe this will surely become an incredibly valuable asset to own, *especially* for the TAPS owners? Exciting times ahead, no question.

[korkybucheck] 26/9/2021 05:18

NGMS - I can see where you are coming from on the future price of oil not being correlated with today's price. That is not the issue. The issue is regarding the long term price ASSUMPTIONS companies make. I have seen the forecasts change drastically between last year and this year. I wonder why??

[inteligentia8] 25/9/2021 06:16

Hi Brian Buru ...forget the turkey and frills coz the seriousness of oil shortage, demonizing of oil etc is just emerging so informing you about drill plans etc seems a bit unlikely Brian...how about sticking to cornflakes and milk (until that too joins the demonizing lust of polluters). Rest your brain, heart, soul and chill

[zeusfurla] 24/9/2021 11:07

Patience is the private investor's friend and biggest edge. 1 week to Q4.

[scot126] 24/9/2021 09:38

Dear All - good to see Erik Opstad's photo on a story with PANR as the headline! [Erik is the Operations GM for 88E, fyi.] hTTps://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/384931868.shtml

[ngms27] 24/9/2021 09:11

michaelsadvfn, Sure, it isn't. Companies going to FID have to model various assumptions and then hope for the best. Just like Sage with Coronavirus and they have been wildly off reality. In essence you cannot predict the future, you can try and make sense of it and that's all really.

[total return] 24/9/2021 09:08

Re oil price and the green agenda I am stealing someone’s quote recently which said that the Oil & Gas sector is now on the naughty step like Tobacco was 10+ years ago but like Tobacco will probably be one of the stellar performers in the next 10 years.

[scot126] 24/9/2021 09:05

NoBrain Buru - do you know what Q4 means? - Nah, didn't think so. Cretin.

[brian boru] 24/9/2021 08:48

Now 4 weeks since Webinar and zilch interest reported so far from big oil - a few on here and across the pond have referred to talks proceeding but nothing confirmed and our friends the F'ers are still selling down for what purpose we do not know! I was hoping that by the time of the Autumn Equinox plans for this winters drilling program may have emerged.............. It will be a sad Christmas with no Turkey and no petrol at the pumps if drilling fails to materialise, Aye!

[michaelsadvfn] 24/9/2021 08:05

Ngms, using your experience of 21 years investing in the O&G sector can you explain how the long term oil price is calculated?

[ngms27] 24/9/2021 07:43

You are stark raving bonkers if you think the Poo now correlates with the Poo in six months never mind 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 years plus. Look at at chart of Brent for starters...

[nascarmike1] 24/9/2021 04:41

Can we all get NGMS a lobotomy's well?

[sirmark] 23/9/2021 22:00

500k delayed print from earlier to be fair could have been either but we did move up at 2pm either way no real change, but another decent volume day seem to be doing about 2.5/5mln a day now won't be long till we start hitting the 70/80 area just a shame F where selling as we would probably be about £1.30/£1.50 by now.... Such is life and patience is the key.

[scot126] 23/9/2021 19:18

Spot on, PoS, spot on. Hi responsible investor - I 100% know you're asking a different and sensible array of questions. ngms27 comes from Contraristan and requires careful monitoring from time to time. I'm not for one millisecond mixing up the content or purpose of your post with his. Promise.

[alaric7] 23/9/2021 19:15

'The price of oil today has little semblance on the price of oil over the next 30 years'. finally you're right about something ngms. the price of oil is only moving in one direction from here on and it ain't south. and you'll have the climate change agenda to thank for that.

[sirmark] 23/9/2021 19:09

Click bait !!

[probabilityofsuccess] 23/9/2021 19:00

Scot, if I may……230; Chessman, nobody is suggesting somebody is sat down with a model changing the input price every day! Ngms has stated that future prices are not correlated to current prices in any way, and that current prices do not influence, in any way, corporate investment decisions. Not correct. Scot is saying that the commodity backdrop (read general price trend, economic environment etc) is absolutely relevant to future price assumptions. No confusion, you are just being pedantic because ngms has made a statement that is, quite frankly, lauaghable and you feel the urge to agree with him simply because it meets your agenda of disagreeing with Scot. If you genuinely believe that ngms is correct then so be it……R30;..but you are categorically wrong to believe that. Hope that helps some who may be misled by the narrative that current POO (recent range and trend) doesn’t matter.

[responsible investor] 23/9/2021 18:37

For goodness all above, the question is simply related to the tangible figures - of course we all understand that the ultimate key factor is the proposed partner's medium to long term view on the market price of crude. I am interested in the other factors which are more quantifiable!

[scot126] 23/9/2021 18:32

Buzz off, chessman2, and go pick a fight with your Mrs or another old fella down t'pub. Your repeated attempts to have me volunteer for a lobotomy in order to debate you at your level are not going to succeed. I've re-read my post and am comfortable leaving it as is. Tsk, tsk, tsk. Still struggling with that value add concept, I see. Hey-ho.

[chessman2] 23/9/2021 18:18

Chris, both scot and ngms appear to have referred to the current price.

[chris0805] 23/9/2021 18:09

*currrent price of POO*Says an awful lot about your thinking...

[ngms27] 23/9/2021 16:47

The price of oil today has little semblance on the price of oil over the next 30 years. There is no correlation whatsoever. The two are not related in any sense other than randomness by which you are being fooled.