Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[btgman] 21/10/2020 18:52

I have absolutely no doubt that Pantheon will ultimately be valued on differing elements of their assets:- Alkaid assuming we drill a well next summer it is likely to constitute Reserves P1 possibly p2 and contingent Talitha assuming a drill in the new year Possibly an element of Reserves and contingent LKA would give numbers for the above and then I would expect a scenario where the buyer would take the above numbers and allow an additional amount for probable numbers a little like the Armstrong Reposol deal Questions are what numbers do we think we will get to and what will they assign per boe. For BOE Armstrong got $3.4 from memory and the recent deal was at $9.7 somewhere in the middle might be reasonable. lets say $5 to be conservative? So then we come down to how many barrels would we get credit for Currently we are valued at circa $320m so circa 64m boe at $5. At this point I think Alkaid at 100m boe would be fair/conservative and Talitha simialr? Theta West and Leonis to come plus the actual value of the scesimic. All of which show's we are massively undervalued. Yes it isn't proven but if it was you would be talking $ billions After Talitha drill depending on how many zones come in it would dwarf the above numbers. AIMO GLA BTG

[pro_s2009] 21/10/2020 18:21

Lets not forget.......... Concho had debt of 4 billion dollars. So the real cost to Conoco is over 13 billion....being shares + inherited debt. Lets flip this around, if we give PANR 4 billion to spend, develop, drill.......I am sure they would be bigger and better than Concho........ I can see where Jay is coming from, and why he emphasized that PANR is debt free.

[redhill9] 21/10/2020 18:09

Spangle93, thanks for your posts #2619 and #2626 providing some welcome balance to the other sometimes exuberant posters on the Pantheon potential. While we can all dream of what may happen it's worthwhile remembering that with O&G nothing is certain. Even Jay, with all his understandable enthusiasm, ended his comment in the most recent RNS announcement with: ......Despite our obvious excitement about Talitha, an appraisal well updip from discovered oil, nothing is without risk in this business and commercial success is never guaranteed before drilling."

[spangle93] 21/10/2020 17:24

Dhb/astral. Well I guess I could flip it round and say that if we ever got Talitha into full production the share price would be 40x higher than our £200MM M/cap, but I think we'd have issued some shares or given away equity by then ;-) The other positive would be that our development costs are probably rather cheaper per BOE than the Permian, which would make it more attractive. The challenge, as HD was saying, is how to value prospective and contingent resources. But if we drill and test Talitha A successful, people will be offering far in excess of 40p/share. I totally agree with Pro in his view that majors will pay over the odds for de-risked discoveries. The aim of a junior O&G company is to spend as little as possible while adding as much value as possible through the work they do to advance the knowledge and de-risk the prospect. When the incremental cost of increased value starts to rise, that's the inflexion (inflection?) point described. Elsewhere it's the kink in the creaming curve, but inflexion point sounds less amenable to double entendres. ;-)

[pro_s2009] 21/10/2020 17:05

Webinar edited recording will be available soon.

[dhb368] 21/10/2020 17:00

A good dose of realism there Spangle. Not as exciting to read as some speculative posts but more valuable for it. Kryptonite to my dreams! So only 10 bags from here then :)

[astralvision] 21/10/2020 16:52

Very good points Spangle and certainly the points you make are very fair and brings one back down to earth after dreaming of a share price based on $9.7bn, or even a little less, I'm not greedy! I think it equates to something like over £10/share. I'd be happy with a fiver!But if I read you correctly then it's an apples and oranges case in that simply there is no comparison or read across from Concho to PANR. Perhaps Jay was just in a buoyant mood, or perhaps as the Concho news only broke that day or the previous day he felt it worth mentioning , perhaps as something we can aspire to in due course?Although we've now had two indications that the game plan is to drill Talitha and then exit on the 'financial inflexion' it's hoped that that will bring. I'd be happy with that.

[dunderheed] 21/10/2020 15:54

2619 agree 100% s93.

[btgman] 21/10/2020 15:44

I have now had a couple of days to digest the presentation and the implications from it. Firstly congratulations to all at Pantheon on a excellent presentation there were a few technical issues but these are difficult times and all credit to everyone for putting this on from various locations around the world. My take is that without doubt the company and associates believe they have something big as emphasized by the comment from Roger that you have to Stand back to see how big it is and similarly Jays comment about these are the wells you dream about drilling. elephant's ear's career defining well etc These are industry veteran's excited by our assets. I don't think there is any doubt that ultimately we will be sat on more than 1 billon barrels of oil recoverable. 2 Discoveries to date. They really want to and plan to drill this winter and are aiming to drill what will potentially be the largest well in the world next year The need to finalise the farm out/funding of the well. Which is taking some time. I might be on my own but I would expect it to take time for many reasons the size and scale of the project the areas which they are farming in to, percentage interest etc etc. It seems many are fixated on the farm out and no doubt it is important but as Justin pointed out on the call there are many ways to skin a cat. I think all options are open from Farm out to fundraising to bid for the company and all things in between. This is a good thing in my mind and I doubt it will look like what we are all thinking. the comment its not done until its done is an interesting comment to say the least as one might think that things are at an advanced stage with several parties. New entrants to the data room is goodness as someone at this stage would likely be serious and have to move quickly maybe they are to late but never say never. We have a very long list of news items due including Unitisation near term, research note which will be intriguing to read as I would be very surprised if risked asset based valuation is not north of £1 and un-risked valuation of several £'s. Further upgrades from Fan Slope. Down Dip Theta West and Leonis Obviously the farm out is the big one which will have very significant implications for 2021. I have been looking forward to Talitha drill for a long long time and in the grand scheme of things this is less than 3 months from starting, success on any of the 4 zones and it looks like Pantheon will be heading for the exit with a very large cheque all likely within a 12 month time frame. What is not to say that we wont have several zone come in from our SUPERTRAP AIMHO GLA BTG

[pro_s2009] 21/10/2020 15:39

Nice staircase upwards. Always was going to be a load of sellers once Talitha news was out........this is the next phase now.........those people have gone, new holders in.......new range upwards soon.

[spangle93] 21/10/2020 15:39

Just had a look at the Concho deal that was referenced in the webinar. The way I heard it (i.e. my opinion), is that Mr Cheatham raised the idea on slide 1, drawing attention to the $9.7bn paid by Conono Phillips for Concho for 1bn BOE reserves, in direct comparison with the "multi-billion barrels of discovered oil in place" in Pantheon's acreage. The Concho deal was for 1bn BOE of proved reserves. PANR has none. It's debatable whether it will have any after Talitha A, or whether LKA will deem it to contingent resources. But it won't have 1 bn BOE of proved reserves until significantly more drilling is done. With the Concho deal COP also gets 200,000 bbl/day of current production and resultant cashflow. Finally it's an all share deal, so the poor Concho shareholders will get stuck with COP stock. I'm not saying that PANR did not report it correctly. I'm also not saying that they conflated the two stories with any falsehood in mind. But it's a long stretch to imagine that our moose pasture is currently worth that much, or indeed will be after the drilling of the well.

[senttothegallows] 21/10/2020 14:14

Automatic buys are back on potentially this should see us heading back higher. The presentation certainly supported a different market reaction to what we have seen. IMHO

[ih_569066] 21/10/2020 12:51

swanny More likely share price would go up if the placing enabled progress on the drilling front this winter.

[swanvesta] 21/10/2020 12:07

How much WI will PANR have to give away for 2 wells? Logically, it ought to be capped at whatever dilution PANR would suffer under a placing. So maybe somewhere around 20% or a bit more, depending on fun and games to stitch up the share price in the meantime? I don't see why share price should fall on a placing in this scenario, any more than it would if a farm-out for 2 wells was announced.

[davidblack] 21/10/2020 10:32

Most likely consolidation especially given that I bought more at 40.82p average yesterday, happens every time. But irrelevant in the end, if your here for the journey It’s the destination that matters and that’s not pence it’s pounds.

[pro_s2009] 21/10/2020 10:15

I would point you to August 2020.........see what happened at 20p levels. 15p to 24p..........down to 20p.........then up it goes. Similar pattern forming now. Profit taking and consolidation are all part of rising share prices. Nothing goes up in a straight line.

[dan de lion] 21/10/2020 10:13

Is the chart developing what chartists would say is a "head and shoulders"?

[ih_569066] 21/10/2020 09:53

Thanks Scott I am totally aware of what they are trying to achieve. The point I was making is analogous to for example football the purpose of the game is to score goals, some do and some don't.Do we have a striker in our team? Thats all.

[pro_s2009] 21/10/2020 09:49

Yes, but its still risk. The big boys will come in after success on the next 2 drills - which is what Jay alluded to. All PANR need to do is find a way to drill those 2 wells....... plan A or B or C.

[yoghurt73] 21/10/2020 09:31

Pros_2009 - One of the key points of having the eseis guys explain on the call their work was to demonstrate they are eliminating a large chunk of the risk and to migrate Talitha 1 well to appraisal v exploration.

[sporazene2] 21/10/2020 08:58

scot126 - post #2594. thank you very much, very gracious. It's only fair that I give you the chance to win back your pint of cooking lager. How about the closest to the PANR share price on December 31st 2020. Winner takes a virtual pint of cooking lager and £10 to their chosen charity. What say you, Scot126?

[bad gateway] 21/10/2020 08:42

re placings I've only found the one going back so far. July 2019 they had a recent high of 25p and placed at 18p which was hit obviously. Different co. then I know but hopefully slightly smaller discount if they do it again? Would prefer stellar farmout news.

[steved] 21/10/2020 08:36

It's clear that PANR's preferred route is a farm out. It also clear that they are looking at a plan B if it doesn't materialise. Nuances suggest they feel in a strong position and ideally want to achieve some claw back of the significant investment outlay to date to share the spoils of this potentially extremely special opportunity. JC and PG have worked and negotiated with large oil companies over the years - they'll know how they think. There are a number of ways to skin a cat. I feel we're in very safe hands here and we can sit back and relax and patiently wait for more information as and when its prudent for the BOD to release it via an RNS. All IMHO.

[john671] 21/10/2020 08:33

Confirmation of successful unit applications will in my opinion cross the t's and dot the i's of any deal.