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Avation Share Discussion Threads
Showing 2726 to 2749 of 2750 messages
|Yes, at a prem to book value and with the shares at a big discount its a bit of s no brainer, if its a financial buyer I am sure there can be some asset management done too which would be a nice side business.|
|Looks like they are going to recommend the sale of the turbo props by the looks of this mornings RNS|
|So they have appointed an advisor, the reality is jeff will know more about the value of the atr fleet than any advisor, that leads me to believe the advisor is there to justify what jeff is thinking and that means sell, which must mean a decent price has been mooted, and shareholders will need to approve. This will leave the company with a ton of cash on the balance sheet and the logical thing would then be buy back some shares to get the price back in line with nav , and then keep building up an airbus fleet, which using the profit from the atr sale will get you up to a 1bn usd fleet which is then scale enough ....Just my 2p worth , I may be totally barking up the wrong treee|
|Russman where are you , as predicted this is the proverbial lead zeppelin...... Or maybe not..,.,|
|I commented about the overdue news here: http://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=315
I see it as a positive, for the time being.
I don't see AVAP giving up those ATR slots so easily. If the ATR sale happens they will need to rebuild the fleet quickly. It is feasible that they will transfer those slots to alternative production slots; at a price. I see the Iranian deal as a positive to maintain or improve aircraft market value.|
|Seem very difficult to buy any of these at the mom , I have been trying to add a small amount extra to my holding but seem to be no offers on the retail platforms at all .. Looks like possibly the iranians will be buying avaps options on the atrs ? And no explanation of why the small placing was done recently , or the outcome of the expression of interest in the atr book , think we are well overdue some news ....|
|Vietjet's next aircraft - A321-211SL VN-A685 (MSN 7427) - is in production at Airbus. I would guess delivery to be around 1st week of December. Meanwhile I cannot see the final delivery - VN-687 (MSN 7454) - being delivered this year, as previously indicated by AVAP.|
|So Jeff could not rake up the cash for the fourth plane.Flipped it to another lessor.|
|The Vietjet sale was in the works prior to the expression of interest for the ATR fleet. As I understand it there are two further Vietjet A321's due for delivery this year although, personally, I doubt Airbus will be able to deliver the second one in time (although root cause of that might be a VietJet's door.
AVAP have indicated that a significant premium to book value for the ATR's would have to be obtained thereby providing a significant windfall for shareholders. I would be more interested to hear from them how quickly they can redeploy that cash and re-grow the fleet.
I estimate P/NTAV is about 0.6. With the A321 sale I reckon all told an EPS of 16p, giving a P/E of 5.4. Of course if the ATR fleet is sold before year end then the EPS will be outrageous but all down to exceptionals. May also offer a sniff of interest in terms of a takeover if the company is sitting on a large cash pile, a bunch of aircraft with a market value well above book value.
I do think if AVAP was listed in the US the share price would be significantly higher...|
|Today's RNS announcing a sale on delivery only adds fuel to the argument for a strong upside to the share price|
|Just been tipped-
|It is a financial buyer who has access to cheap dollars & is attracted to the high lease yield.AVAP need dollars.Jeff is missing a trick.Sell a portfolio of ATRs but put a management contract in place.Get dollars; cream off fees.|
|Notable share price reaction... not quite sure why a buyer would pay a large premium to book value for the fleet? Surely they could get the planes themselves new and then lease them out...in Avation's trading history sometimes it sells old planes above book and sometimes below.... so book seems a reasonably good marker of their value..
However, they are sold outside of lease usually and the may be worth more if leased to a good airline on a long-term basis....I don't think the maker of the ATR's has such a long order lead time....I think it is about 3 years...so I can't see why someone would pay a significant premium for Avation's fleet of ATR's...
Unless it is a crazy buyer like the Chinese who seem to be buying everything at the moment...|
|Just seen this pop up on my radar, on the face looks extremely interesting.... might dabble my toe tomorrow.|
|Leasing of aircraft offers high yields with a high degree of certainty of income. The recent billion dollar funding for BOC Aviation highlights the amount of money wanting to get into this market. However there is quite a lead time between placing orders for planes and actual delivery. A quick way in for a newcomer is to buy a leased fleet.
Avation is a relatively small operation therefore we might expect it to be taken out by one of the big boys keen to get the aircraft and the leasing customers.
This could show a very healthy return over the next few months since there is deep value to be had here-|
|Recent deals were at 1.2 & 1.6x net assets so you would think they would want similar. @ 40% of fleet may crystailze value that is currently on 0.6x net assets. So double it at least .|
|I would imagine its a leasing co or financial company who like the yields, they are like high yield well secured bonds, the company is not for sale but all the assets are, in a world of negative/ low rates there should be a good number of interested parties,|
|Not really sure what to make of this to be honest...not sure if it will go ahead and it seems quite bizzare to me...why would someone want to buy all of the group's turboprops which are under lease??? Why not just buy new turboprops??? If it is a leasing business then why doesn't it just buy the whole of Avation?? Why would Avation want to sell most of its fleet??
Not sure I understand this and it seems unlikely to come to anything... any other views??|
|To sell half the fleet and the half with the highest yields will need a decent bid above book value I would think that would need to be at least 15 mio usd , with the gbp at 1.22 i see nav around 2.77 gbp per share this deal could push up to 3 pounds, they can then buy a bunch of shares back and a few more a321 should give a huge boost to the share price, of course no firm deal yet but shows there is value in the book and the shares still trade very cheap|
|Good news is hard to find today - so this is welcome.
No decision on a sale has been made. However, the directors are willing to consider a proposal aligned with attractive shareholder returns for this portfolio, a portfolio which currently generates strong cash yields for the Company."
The Company will make further announcements in due course as and when there are any relevant developments|
|So a surprise RNS: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/AVAP/13013377.html in which somone (Avalon?) wants to aquire the ATR fleet. Given that within the industry the valuation of these aircraft would be well known (disregarding what is stated in the AVAP annual report) then the question really remains as to what premium over book value would be acceptable.
I reckon at least $93m should be achievable:
Current Estimated NBV: $371,295,346
Outstanding Loan $282,184,463
Premium to NBV 5%
Net Cash $93,566,427|
|The share placing was supposed to be double that. Because it is in sterling.Still need to raise dollar funds.|
|Vietjet's latest A321-211SL, VN-A684 (MSN 7342) had its first factory flight last Wednesday. Deliveries are typically 7-10 days after first flight assuming no major snags. For some reason the share price often goes up when an aircraft is delivered...|
|Contracted fleet revenue: US$ 752.5 million
Remaining lease term (weighted average) 7.4 years
Calculated Annual revenue 752.5/7.4 = $101.6m as of 30th September 2016 ??|