Avation Share Discussion Threads

[geniechem] 13/4/2023 09:18

I don't get this, bout in at around £1.40 and looks a decent company, planes out for rent and older models being sold off, reducing debt. Share just keeps on dropping and no idea why, anyone can assist or offer guidance?

[ga_dti] 11/4/2023 06:28

Latest interview with CFO Iain Cawte discussing the results for the six months period ended 31 December 2022 in more detail:

[ga_dti] 27/3/2023 06:40

DT interview with Executive Chairman Jeff Chatfield -

[geniechem] 10/3/2023 10:07

Just bought in a few days ago at £1.40, of course it's now dropping, long term seems a winner to me.

[casholaa] 07/3/2023 13:38

Yeahhhh.. it's not one that they could get wrong really is it -lol

dyor etc

[sogoesit] 07/3/2023 12:44

Some selected paragraphs...

"Nonetheless, it was a very positive outcome and one that shows that the business is clearly heading in the right direction. This has not been lost on investors; Avation’s share price has rallied 36 per cent since I rated the shares, at 102p, a recovery buy at the annual results (‘On a positive trajectory’, 29 September 2022). There should be more upside to come as the shares are still priced on half net asset value (NAV) of 282p even though management has been reducing investment risk, leasing or disposing of off-lease aircraft, and cutting net borrowings by 6 per cent to $747mn, or 62.9 per cent of total assets of $1.19bn.

....


At this stage of the recovery, the best metric to value the group on is in relation to book value, which largely consists of the net equity held in aircraft, free cash on the balance sheet, the valuation of purchase rights and the net working capital position. On this basis, a 50 per cent share price discount is unwarranted. Buy."

[pedigree_scum] 06/3/2023 20:19

Another article in Investors Chronicle from ST - all very positive

[pedigree_scum] 06/3/2023 14:44

I'll take £2 for starters

[drradcliffe] 06/3/2023 13:31

Quite a bit more to come over the next 12 months. £2.70?

[pedigree_scum] 06/3/2023 11:45

Coming up nicely. Hopefully quite a bit more to come.

[harrogate] 05/3/2023 08:08

Despite what I said earlier I thought the IMC on Friday was excellent. Very informative and open. It is clear that the worst is over, there is a clear path to growth through the ATR purchase rights, and they sounded upbeat. Without any further industry disruption can't see why we won't move a fair bit closer to NAV over the coming 12 months. Would think ST will update on them soon. He seems to follow them.

[sogoesit] 03/3/2023 13:31

Investor Meet today (my tuppence worth):
Ferre.... shortage of ATRs, no more Bombardiers... 1200 ATR fleet up for retirement (out of 1600)...

Chatfield... organic growth to be self-financed (secured debt - about $15m per aircraft); not looking for equity (especially at discount to NAV).

No problems with re-leasing over next 3 years.

Looks encouraging.

[sogoesit] 03/3/2023 09:48

Hopefully upwards and onwards to a discount of less than 50% to NAV...

[my retirement fund] 03/3/2023 09:15

Joined here

[casholaa] 02/3/2023 12:08

@Harro, yes, I've read Carcosa -excellent posts and analysis. I hold aa4 and am still hesitating whether to dip my toes into dna2/dna3.

[quepassa] 02/3/2023 11:39

well i did sell at 300p.
and I bought back at 66p mid last year.

as you know from my well-documented posts.

and I couldn't have achieved that timing without their thorough investor communications and watching the industry.

i think you are just trying to nit-pick.

my experience of AVAP is different to yours and I think their shareholder communications are outstanding and primus inter pares.


all imo. dyor.
qp

[harrogate] 02/3/2023 11:24

I have been a shareholder since it was on OFEX and despite my stupidity in not selling at close to £3 on the pandemic news I am well in profit and bought more at about 95p in late 2022. I have had many conversations with Jeff over the years and Richard and like them. But it is a fact that the announcements can be inconsistent - only quoting that a sale is above book when it is and not mentioning when below. I won't bore you with the many other examples over the year. Worth reading Carcosa on lemonfool on AVAP as he is in the industry

[casholaa] 02/3/2023 10:55

Nice new customer. Don't forget that the plane is insured lol

[quepassa] 02/3/2023 10:51

i am fully aware it is a lease. and i am interested who the buyer was.

i think your disparaging comments about Avap are unfair and totally unfounded.

i have never known a company to be so good and open with information for shareholders as AVAP. They get top marks for shareholder communications.



on the contrary, recovery has been stellar given that the Far East airline industry is only now getting back up to speed since China reopened just a few days ago.

[harrogate] 02/3/2023 10:27

Yes but that was a sale so who cares who bought it ? This is a lease and a short one so credit quality impacts overall credit rating. I suspect in true AVAP fashion if it isn't good don't mention it is the MO! Still cheap against NAV but recovery is taking longer I think.

[quepassa] 02/3/2023 10:16

Hmmm. maybe/maybe not.

they didn't recently name the buyer of the 737-800 either.

who knows. maybe the growing tentacles of gdpr???


can't be at all sure but do not recall seeing HeviLift on the customer list before.

maybe someone with a better memory than mine can confirm or otherwise. herewith link to avap's list of customers:-

hXXps://www.avation.net/customers.html


all imo. dyor.
qp

[harrogate] 02/3/2023 09:54

That must be the first time the customer has not been named. And no statement to say on normal terms etc. Got to think they are struggling to get these aircraft off the books by June. 2 more to go. Maybe they are specific but I hope it doesn't mean demand for the new ATRs is low as I think that will be the main growth driver going forward.

[faz147] 28/2/2023 11:29

I emailed [e-mail] asking for clarity on market expectations and received most recent broker notes from WH Ireland and Cannacord within a few hours.

Target prices 185p and 255p respectively, and both issued prior to the company's "significantly ahead of market expectations" update.

Never a better time to be heavily invested in AVAP IMO

[quepassa] 26/2/2023 12:49

What's vague about "significantly ahead of market expectations".

that's about as direct and concrete as I have ever seen.