Avation Share Discussion Threads

[my retirement fund] 28/9/2023 17:44

Stupidly under priced and staggered, the price fell at the close. I'm adding that a bid around Nav would be welcome, though

[bdbd11] 28/9/2023 12:55

Today's results showed an increase in nav of 4% (in USD terms) and the shares can now be bought at a 62% discount to nav (£2.69 nav £1.01 to Buy).

They are rapidly paying down debt and at a higher rate than depreciation. That will cause the nav to continue to trickle forward. In addition there is some opportunity for growth and their ATR purchase rights are of considerable value, especially in a 'green' environment.

No dividend or share buy back any time soon, with all spare cash going to pay down debt, which is the right move.

That does all lead to the conclusion that they are vulnerable to a bid.

[casholaa] 01/9/2023 15:14

I regret not waiting now. GL to you.

[bdbd11] 01/9/2023 14:57

Available again to buy at under £1, time for a small top up!

[aublune] 29/8/2023 07:03

Headquartered in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, AviLease was launched in 2022 and offers leasing, trading and asset management services. The company's business strategy is to expand rapidly to become one of the world's top 10 leasing companies.

will avation be on any radars as a tuck in?

[aublune] 29/8/2023 06:15

it was sold above ther net value

[casholaa] 28/8/2023 18:52

It's all good, it's a Saudi bet on the future of air travel for their areas of interest.

[aublune] 28/8/2023 13:54

hxxps://www.aviationnews-online.com/leasing/avilease-confirms-purchase-of-standard-chartered-leasing-platform/

[aublune] 21/8/2023 10:55

107p trade looking better again and chart starting to round upwards

[aublune] 17/8/2023 19:10

24k buy at 106p at the close

[casholaa] 17/8/2023 11:53

I do wonder whether new aircraft manufacturers have inflation clauses built into their agreements.

[aublune] 17/8/2023 11:14

Enter Air and TUI to form joint venture to provide aircraft leasing and charters - 16 August 2023 newsroom.aviator.aero

The application was received on 11 August 2023, and the case is pending

This is an attractive market and others are recognising it. Corporation strategic actions in the space is hotting up!

[aublune] 17/8/2023 09:29

Somebody was an interested party is maybe buying this before covid when the stock was more than 270p. Will they return now?

Canaccord genuity target price is 250p

[aublune] 15/8/2023 08:23

The share price bounce back to 125p starts here with a bigger bowl to before covid

[aublune] 12/8/2023 21:22

the broker target is 200 WH ireland, I was sent a research document on it

this is too cheap down here

[pireric] 08/8/2023 08:17

I've bought a position for similar reasons. Buoyant airline market, structural shift to leasing remains in place. Investors are perhaps also a little slow to remember how resilient the air travel market is and has been over the decades. The pandemic was clearly an isolated event.

An over 60% discount to net book value when some key (admittedly larger) peers are on a 10% discount is excessive. Most peers have also fully recovered their pandemic share price losses, while AVAP is still down more than half.

This is not a sustainable status quo in likelihood; this is a sector that historically had consolidated and I think the pressure for AVAP to be part of that increases the longer the valuation discount at these levels lingers. The demand environment is in robust shape which helps. Where there have been aircraft sales from AVAP they have broadly endorsed book value, I think. 2 ATRs in H2 last year basically at book value, a Boeing earlier this year may be a small impairment, but then an ATR recently at above book value

There is an argument to say that - at these levels - alongside retiring debt, it makes sense to signal to the market with a share buyback. However, liquidity is maybe a big constraining factor there.

Regardless, feels to me the upside downside equation at anywhere near these levels is skewed far more favourably to the upside. Time will tell. This was a pretty well regarded stock and business before COVID hit, but investors have largely forgotten about it and to be fair, the business shape has changed. Fair value in a corporate action could realistically be close to a £2 handle.

Management ought to probably keep a keen eye on those strategic alternatives given the share price disconnect, and the large shareholding Jeff and Oceanwood have. There would be a decent level of cost takeout between G&A and using a lower cost of financing across the group (vs what a larger player could achieve) that could materially improve the embedded economics of any transaction.

Eric

[aublune] 08/8/2023 07:30

thank you now does look like a very nice entry floor! What is your target price and any knowledge on what the broker target price is??

[a_game] 20/7/2023 08:34

the fact it's ludicrously undervalued.. trading at less than half NAV with a large pile of cash on account.

[aublune] 20/7/2023 06:31

Anything causing the bounce? target prices?

[casholaa] 18/7/2023 19:46

Lease revenue to eof June was supposed to be around $90m but I haven't checked whether that came to pass

[harrogate] 18/7/2023 12:55

I think the issue is more likely to be Philippines airline. Worth reading Carcosa on lemonfool. He knows his stuff.

[riverman77] 18/7/2023 12:53

Presumably this potential bad debt would represent only a small percentage of the NAV - I think a 60% discount to NAV should be enough to cushion this loss many times over.

[rimau1] 16/7/2023 19:07

My guess would be the customer is Vietjet and if so given the recent issues with Vietnam/regulators and Aviation companies AVAP may struggle to get paid in a timely way. I suppose i am surprised given that Asian airlines are recovering strongly in 2023 that there is a risk of a bad debt provision in the SE Asia market.

[quepassa] 16/7/2023 11:55

to kick the ball off, what are you own views please on this interesting question which you raise?