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AVAP Avation Plc

-3.00 (-2.34%)
30 Nov 2023 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Stock Type
Avation Plc AVAP London Ordinary Share
  Price Change Price Change % Share Price Last Trade
-3.00 -2.34% 125.00 16:35:04
Open Price Low Price High Price Close Price Previous Close
128.00 126.50 128.00 125.00 128.00
more quote information »
Industry Sector

Avation AVAP Dividends History

Announcement Date Type Currency Dividend Amount Ex Date Record Date Payment Date

Top Dividend Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 17/11/2023 10:24 by extrader
Here's an old article on Raper's investment approach :

.."As for investment decision process - this is a complex, multi-step process, but in general, I try to answer the following questions:

1) does this meet my minimum criteria for valuation (i.e., in general I won't buy anything more than 10x normalized free cash flow)?

2) does this have a strong downside protection (derived from asset value, or strategic value to an acquirer, or through potential strategic action)?

3) what does the market not understand about the value/quality of the business and how will that change in the next 12mos? i.e., what is going to get the market to view this asset like I do? What is the catalyst to rerate it?

Assuming all three of these criteria are met, then it can theoretically go into the book, provided point 3) is satisfied in spades - that is, I need to be fully convinced something is going to change, fairly imminently, as cheapness and downside protection alone are never enough.

I wonder what he thinks the catalyst for AVAP is - industry consolidation?

Posted at 17/11/2023 07:51 by harrogate
Lets kick off with this recent podcast/YouTube video with Jeremy Raper in relation to Avation "So I raised an SPV recently and this is live, this is public disclosed. I've made the filing. So I'm, I'm not going to talk about the strategy or specifically the company. But you know, yeah I've raised, I've raised money and taken entities I manage have taken a 20 something percent stake in a listed aircraft leasing company in the UK called Avation, AVAP, this is, this is all public filings and you know my goal is to maximize value for all shareholders.It's a very, it's a very, it's ostensibly a very cheap equity and I have a number of ideas to to kind of create value for all shareholders. And I think, I think having more bullets in the gun so to speak will be beneficial to to all shareholders of the company."
Posted at 10/11/2023 10:28 by harrogate
I don't see why anyone would get ripped off. We are all guessing but I doubt this is a wait and see what happens. It seems to me that the AVAP ability to grow and the NAV is all about those ATR purchase rights. We haven't yet seen evidence of how they can get hold of those planes given ATR production schedules or fund them. An increase in NAV is going to be slow. My bet is they need a deal of some sort.
Posted at 01/11/2023 13:26 by a_game
And the warrant sale by Jeff today. Notice the price has just trended up despite this ~£375k sale on the highly illiquid market for AVAP. I would hazard a guess Rangeley Capital was the buyer and Jeff providing them liquidity.
Posted at 01/11/2023 11:33 by my retirement fund
This is indeed an interest development:


Avation PLC (LSE: AVAP), the commercial passenger aircraft leasing company advises that 485,000 share warrants have been granted to directors and other employees of the Company as set out below.

The grant of warrants is pursuant to the authorities and powers given by shareholders at the Company's last annual general meeting. The warrants have been granted subject to the Company's Remuneration Policy as long-term incentives. The warrants were granted by the board at an exercise price of 125.50 pence per share, and each warrant grant is on terms that one third of the warrants will vest at the end of each of the first three years from the date of grant but subject always to clawback under the terms of the Company's Remuneration Policy. The warrants are otherwise granted on customary terms for employee share remuneration.
Posted at 28/9/2023 12:55 by bdbd11
Today's results showed an increase in nav of 4% (in USD terms) and the shares can now be bought at a 62% discount to nav (£2.69 nav £1.01 to Buy).

They are rapidly paying down debt and at a higher rate than depreciation. That will cause the nav to continue to trickle forward. In addition there is some opportunity for growth and their ATR purchase rights are of considerable value, especially in a 'green' environment.

No dividend or share buy back any time soon, with all spare cash going to pay down debt, which is the right move.

That does all lead to the conclusion that they are vulnerable to a bid.
Posted at 08/8/2023 08:17 by pireric
I've bought a position for similar reasons. Buoyant airline market, structural shift to leasing remains in place. Investors are perhaps also a little slow to remember how resilient the air travel market is and has been over the decades. The pandemic was clearly an isolated event.

An over 60% discount to net book value when some key (admittedly larger) peers are on a 10% discount is excessive. Most peers have also fully recovered their pandemic share price losses, while AVAP is still down more than half.

This is not a sustainable status quo in likelihood; this is a sector that historically had consolidated and I think the pressure for AVAP to be part of that increases the longer the valuation discount at these levels lingers. The demand environment is in robust shape which helps. Where there have been aircraft sales from AVAP they have broadly endorsed book value, I think. 2 ATRs in H2 last year basically at book value, a Boeing earlier this year may be a small impairment, but then an ATR recently at above book value

There is an argument to say that - at these levels - alongside retiring debt, it makes sense to signal to the market with a share buyback. However, liquidity is maybe a big constraining factor there.

Regardless, feels to me the upside downside equation at anywhere near these levels is skewed far more favourably to the upside. Time will tell. This was a pretty well regarded stock and business before COVID hit, but investors have largely forgotten about it and to be fair, the business shape has changed. Fair value in a corporate action could realistically be close to a £2 handle.

Management ought to probably keep a keen eye on those strategic alternatives given the share price disconnect, and the large shareholding Jeff and Oceanwood have. There would be a decent level of cost takeout between G&A and using a lower cost of financing across the group (vs what a larger player could achieve) that could materially improve the embedded economics of any transaction.

Posted at 16/7/2023 19:07 by rimau1
My guess would be the customer is Vietjet and if so given the recent issues with Vietnam/regulators and Aviation companies AVAP may struggle to get paid in a timely way. I suppose i am surprised given that Asian airlines are recovering strongly in 2023 that there is a risk of a bad debt provision in the SE Asia market.
Posted at 25/4/2023 10:01 by a_game
With the number of buyouts happening at the moment, it wouldn't surprise me if AVAP gets a bid. Buyers were circling pre-pandemic. share price here is on it's knees still with NAV sitting way higher and AVAP well through the worst of it now.
Posted at 13/4/2023 09:37 by harrogate
I am pretty sure that the recent weakness is connected to the issue in Vietnam with Vietjet. Not connected to AVAP aircraft but Vietnam courts seem to have ridden roughshod over the rights of a lessor as regards planes leased to Vietjet. Hopefully just Sabre rattling and no impact on AVAP.

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