Avation Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 28/6/2022 08:07

Good to see that China has begun to ease travel restrictions.

[russman] 25/6/2022 08:07

So what would you estimate the theoretical fair value warrant price to be at present?
What volatility shall we use.
The black swan has been flapping over the last 3 years.

[russman] 11/6/2022 08:03

Aircraft leasing is a simple business.
Matching interest & capital cashflows over the long term is the tricky part.
Bond program has been their millstone to date.

[quepassa] 09/6/2022 17:48

Don't miss this.

Yesterday 8th. June.

Avation's FD in interview with Proactive Investors:-



hXXps://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/984358/avation-plc-says-company-is-back-where-we-were-pre-covid-984358.html



ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 08/6/2022 17:37

SIMPLICITY IS THE ULTIMATE SOPHISTICATION.

(Leonardo da Vinci)



No beating about the bush with Avation. They tell it like it is.

How refreshing.

[russman] 08/6/2022 17:05

Richard Wolanski explains “every aircraft is generating rent and that’s who we were pre-Covid”.
A rather simplistic opinion from the Avation FD.

[quepassa] 07/6/2022 08:34

For the record.


Three months ago on 3rd. March 2022, Canaccord Genuity put out the following broker recommendation on Avation:-



REITERATE BUY. TARGET PRICE 149p (unchanged).



Canaccord see more than 85% UPSIDE to current share price



ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[russman] 07/6/2022 07:47

This Easyjet A320 was owned by 99% sub CLA.
For the bond refinancing it was "transferred" to AVAP without the consent of CLA's minority shareholders.
Jeff (as sole director) is subject to a complaint under the City code(Takeovers & Mergers).

[quepassa] 26/5/2022 14:06

Bailed out in Jan 2020 around 300p at the start of the pandemic.

Post 2401 of 28/2/20 and others refer.


Now back in.

Started accumulating last week from 66p.


The amount of work which this company has done with bankers, bondholders, airlines, lessees, lawyers, repo specialists to keep themselves and the Company afloat during an unforeseeable pandemic-induced disaster for the airline industry is of epic proportions.


The skill, unremitting hard work and commitment needed to do that is astonishing

They are fighters.

If they managed to pull themselves through that industry disaster, you've got to give it to them.

My money is that they can and will turn the company back round again and rebuild it back to where it was.

They know exactly what they have to do. They know how to do it. And I believe they have the ability, desire, skill, ambition and determination to do it.

Fortune favours the brave.

The figures and cashflows are beginning to look encouraging.

The green shoots of recovery have appeared.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 25/5/2022 13:21

Not surprised to see the share price rallying strongly in recent days.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[carcosa] 25/5/2022 08:28

flynders

It is the $195m repayment due 2023 and $397m maturity in 2027 which should draw your focus.

Undoubtably that can be pushed down the line and refinanced but currently at an 8.8% interest rate; which will only continue to increase with poor credit ratings and increased borrowing costs that is weighing on the share price.

Given current market cap however, it may be worth a punt on the basis that so many many aircraft lessor M&A's are going on that someone will bottom fish for a small company like Avation. That way the servicing of debt will be dramatically reduced, the GMTN notes (and possibly warrants) will be settled and enough left over for the shareholders to be happy.

[casholaa] 24/5/2022 13:17

I got out at the right time a while back, it was pure luck on my part as I was diverting funds. I'm reluctant now as the nav seems stable, but the PI is always the last to know anything worth knowing. But, equally, I wouldn't be surprised if goes into the 90s quickly.

[flynders] 24/5/2022 12:23

Thanks carcosa. So to summarise they appear to face two negative pressures, increasing cost of debt with reduced revenue. The settlements don’t seem ideal either. It is still an enormous discount to NAVP unless I am missing something.

[carcosa] 18/5/2022 10:47

flynders, my take on the situation can be found here:

[flynders] 18/5/2022 08:29

Been following this one for a while, topping up here and there. Disappointing as it now feels like catching a falling dagger over the last few weeks. Does anyone know what’s driving it down ?

[argylerich] 17/5/2022 11:58

Will the last one out please turn off the lights :-(

[russman] 13/5/2022 06:37

"We anticipate zero unutilised aircraft by the end of the calendar year 2022. Sales of unutilised aircraft provide capital to rebuild in a post-pandemic recovery phase ."
Selling their second hand ATRs will not even cover the interest cost on their toggle notes.

[paul_butcher1999] 26/4/2022 15:52

yes Simon T does shift to 'sell' on shares he tips. Seems unlikely with this one though until a pretty serious increase in share price or some catastrophic unforeseen event!

[melloteam] 25/4/2022 11:56

Mello2022, the popular three-day Investor event takes place on 24TH-26TH MAY at the Clayton Hotel & Conference Centre, Chiswick, W4. The breakdown of the three days is as follows:

Tuesday 24th May, 9am - 6pm - Mello Investment Trusts and Funds (WE ARE GIVING AWAY 20 FREE TICKETS TO THE TRUST AND FUNDS EVENT - THE FREE CODE IS FIRST20TF)

Wednesday 25th & Thursday 26th May, 9am - 6pm - Smaller Growth and Mid-Cap Companies

Just to let shareholders and prospective investors know that AVATION will be among the 60+ LSE Small Cap and AIM listed companies attending. There will also be keynote speakers such as Lord John Lee, Andy Brough, Rosemary Banyard, Clarke Carlisle and Gervais Williams.

Tickets for 1 day are £115 and tickets for 2 days are £189. To get 50% off, use code MMTADVFN50.

For more information, please visit the event webpage:

[russman] 07/4/2022 17:06

Priority 1 : Stay afloat. Reduce gearing, buy in the most expensive debt.

[russman] 07/4/2022 17:01

Executive Chairman Jeff Chatfield said "the Company needs to accelerate away from the Covid-19 crisis and restore growth and development in 2023, the foundations need to be established now during the industry recovery phase".

[russman] 17/3/2022 07:57

"That more than five hundred airlines, owned by leasing companies predominantly based in Ireland, could soon become the (stolen) property of the Russian state".
Wont do much for used jet valuations.

[bubloo] 11/3/2022 12:40

with oil at the present price ovation tip is not a appropriate one. I am out today based on small rise.

[cc2014] 11/3/2022 12:14

Does Simon Thompson ever stop tipping a stock once he's tipped it once?