Avation Share Price (AVAP)

Share Name	Share Symbol	Market	Type	Share ISIN	Share Description
Avation	LSE:AVAP	London	Ordinary Share	GB00B196F554	ORD 1P

	Price Change	% Change	Share Price	Bid Price	Offer Price	High Price	Low Price	Open Price	Shares Traded	Last Trade
	+0.00p	+0.00%	230.00p	228.00p	232.00p	230.00p	229.50p	229.50p	8,778	08:13:46

Industry Sector	Turnover (m)	Profit (m)	EPS - Basic	PE Ratio	Market Cap (m)
Industrial Transportation	55.9	13.6	25.8	8.6	141.28

Related Shares
Royal Mail (RMG), BBA Aviation (BBA), Mercantile Port (MPL), DX (DX.)

Avation (AVAP) Latest News

Avation News

Date	Time	Source	Headline
27/7/2017	09:31	UKREG	Avation PLC INTERIM DIVIDEND EXCHANGE RATE
20/7/2017	07:59	UKREG	Avation PLC ADMISSION OF ORDINARY SHARES & TOTAL VOTING RIGHTS
19/7/2017	11:49	ALNC	Avation To Lease Three ATR 72-600 Aircraft To Mandarin Airlines
19/7/2017	09:44	ALNCF	Alliance News Flash Headline
19/7/2017	09:41	UKREG	Avation PLC AIRCRAFT PLACEMENT
17/7/2017	07:23	UKREG	Avation PLC ISSUE OF EQUITY ON EXERCISE OF WARRANTS
14/7/2017	10:23	ALNC	Avation Takes Delivery Of New ATR 72-600 Aircraft
14/7/2017	09:02	UKREG	Avation PLC CONFIRMATION OF AIRCRAFT DELIVERY
30/6/2017	11:23	ALNC	Avation Expects Higher Revenue For 2017 As It Completes Aircraft Sale
30/6/2017	07:00	UKREG	Avation PLC INTERIM DIVIDEND AND MANAGEMENT STATEMENT

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Avation (AVAP) Discussions and Chat

Avation Forums and Chat

Date	Time	Title	Posts
17/8/2017	15:58	Avation - Fly to Let	2,065
25/1/2013	12:03	Avation traded on Plus	753
01/10/2010	19:35	Flying High?	-

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Avation (AVAP) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time	Trade Price	Trade Size	Trade Value	Trade Type
08:14:12	228.35	1,987	4,537.31	O
08:11:22	231.50	89	206.04	O
07:46:10	231.50	4,292	9,935.98	O
07:13:37	231.00	410	947.10	O
07:06:52	231.00	2,000	4,620.00	O

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Avation (AVAP) Top Chat Posts

Date	Subject
18/8/2017 09:20	Avation Daily Update: Avation is listed in the Industrial Transportation sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AVAP. The last closing price for Avation was 230p. Avation has a 4 week average price of 228p and a 12 week average price of 207.50p. The 1 year high share price is 253p while the 1 year low share price is currently 134.50p. There are currently 61,428,246 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 33,032 shares. The market capitalisation of Avation is £141,284,965.80. Read Full Thread Reply
16/8/2017 11:16	trytotakeiteasy: Share price seems a bit weak. Any exposure to Air Berlin? Read Full Thread Follow Reply
20/7/2017 06:47	carcosa: It took them nearly 9 months to place those last 3 ATR's; which is a bit surprising. I also notde they were non-specific regarding the lease length of those latest aircraft; unlike prior announcements. Also the implication is that they are non-revenue earning between factory delivery to AVAP and delivery to the lessee. Also they have had some older narrow bodied aircraft for sale for a long time now with no progress being made; although the recent extention/new customer of A320/MSN1607 was welcome news although I note they did not make mention of the contingency payment related to that aircraft at the end of its current lease. Looking ahead to FY 2018 the current fleet would result in about a $5m shortfall in revenue compared to this year's expectation with a substantial reduction in profits. As things stand at the moment P/NTAV is around 1.0 which some would consider is about right. However between now and June 2018 a lot has to happen to support the share price and that is most likely to be more jet aircraft to up the NAV. Am a bit disappointed that has yet to happen because the last six months or so have been a bit slow; I was hoping once the ATR sale had completed a raft of announcements would be forthcoming but this has not happened. With LIBOR rates creeping up what they do now can have significant implications for re-leasing of aircraft in years to come. The other item that may assist the share price is an upward revaluation of the current ATR fleet (assuming no change to the Airbus fleet). There is plenty of anecdotal evidence that this is a possibility. Then, if they ever get rid of the older Airbus aircraft above book value that could dramatically positively affect the balance sheet; but I really wouldn't hold out much hope of that happening anytime soon or if it did the premium might actually be negative/small. Right now I feel the share price reflects the value of the company but given the results (and why do they have to be issued so late after closing the books??) are due I'm inclined to wait-and-see what they say about the future before considering selling my shares (first bought 2013) Basically, business as usual. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
17/2/2017 07:25	carcosa: If I may... As time has gone on it seems apparent to me that their concern is that they wish to stay in the narrowbody market but valuations are very high now and the idea of buying ready made replacement fleets is not as easy as they initially thought. Therefore the loss of revenue and profits over the years it will take them to increase the fleet size again means that a massive premium would be required on the fleet sale. Also, with 97% of their loans at fixed rates that alone is a powerful argument to keep things as they are in a rising interest rate environment (next 5 years). Given the ATR fleet growth is going to be pedestrian and the yields on the jet fleet are relatively smaller then perhaps it is wise to keep the ATR fleet unless someone came up with a huge premium. Given that half the company assets are up for sale then Avation were duty bound to seek out other potential investors; part of good corporate governance; but their heart is really not in it IMO. However they are into aircraft sales and selling a few ATR's, perhaps the older -500 series is in line with normal trading. So it's all good for the company and the business but given the share price appreciation when the ATR sale was first announced I am certain there will be a meaningful fall in the share price if they announce the fleet sale is not going to happen; perhaps mitigated if at the same time they have secured sales on only part of the ATR fleet. As a consequence I sold about a third of my holding yesterday. However long term I'll probably be a buyer following the announcement because plugging various numbers into my finance model shows that full year profits are going to be good and I believe in this company over the long term having first invested in 2013 Carcosa Read Full Thread Follow Reply
02/2/2017 13:56	ragehammer: The price seems to be ebbing away with no update on progress on the ATR deal. It's now two and a half months since the last update, the AGM Statement on 15 November when they advised that the "timing for the receipt of proposals is before the end of the calendar year". I presume that the lack of news means that a deal is still being negotiated, but the share price movement of the last few days suggests pessimism. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
01/11/2016 11:14	carcosa: The Vietjet sale was in the works prior to the expression of interest for the ATR fleet. As I understand it there are two further Vietjet A321's due for delivery this year although, personally, I doubt Airbus will be able to deliver the second one in time (although root cause of that might be a VietJet's door. AVAP have indicated that a significant premium to book value for the ATR's would have to be obtained thereby providing a significant windfall for shareholders. I would be more interested to hear from them how quickly they can redeploy that cash and re-grow the fleet. I estimate P/NTAV is about 0.6. With the A321 sale I reckon all told an EPS of 16p, giving a P/E of 5.4. Of course if the ATR fleet is sold before year end then the EPS will be outrageous but all down to exceptionals. May also offer a sniff of interest in terms of a takeover if the company is sitting on a large cash pile, a bunch of aircraft with a market value well above book value. I do think if AVAP was listed in the US the share price would be significantly higher... Read Full Thread Follow Reply
26/10/2016 14:14	catsick: To sell half the fleet and the half with the highest yields will need a decent bid above book value I would think that would need to be at least 15 mio usd , with the gbp at 1.22 i see nav around 2.77 gbp per share this deal could push up to 3 pounds, they can then buy a bunch of shares back and a few more a321 should give a huge boost to the share price, of course no firm deal yet but shows there is value in the book and the shares still trade very cheap Read Full Thread Follow Reply
09/9/2016 07:18	harrogate: Carcosa - how are you going to model the fact that the have the stated intention to trade midlife - old aircraft and there will be an inevitable reduction in lease revenue and an increase in trading profits which might as we have seen this year increase EPS but none of us values as highly and seems short term? Also while I agree that the board should focus on the business and not the share price there are some tings they need to do beyond the core leasing business to make sure that the share price does as well as I should - the call yesterday I thought was a shambles and the answers to much of the detailed questioning vague and inconsistent. If you listened do you know who the maon finance guy is at that the Company? Read Full Thread Follow Reply
09/9/2016 06:39	carcosa: Well, you have to ask yourself why WH Ireland are so wrong. Stiffel were a lot better; but still wrong albeit pretty much bang on with leasing business. Broker notes are rarely reliable when it comes the numbers but their commentary is useful in picking up details. For the last two years my model has been reasonably accurate in terms of leasing profitability. As of today we know there are unlikely to be future ATR deliveries over the next year and we know how many more Airbus aircraft are contracted. Although I go into excessive detail on my own spreadsheet it does not take a great deal of work to use your own research to develop your own finance model. For all companies that I am a shareholder of I have my own targets but share price is never one of those targets. Companies should concentrate on the business and if they are meeting my various targets then I'm happy. Broker targets are almost be definition lies! As for share price, then I don't believe companies should pay too much attention to it. When they do it seems to me they invariably screw things up. That's for investors to play with. On any appropriate metric Avation is under valued in my opinion which is why I buy shares in them. But each to their own; if you have a system that works for you then stick with it. Meanwhile.. what's happened to A321 MSN 1921 ? Read Full Thread Follow Reply
08/9/2016 07:24	ragehammer: AVAP results look pretty strong as expected, actual EPS of 34.2c compared to 32c in the recent trading update (must have found a few pennies down the back of the sofa). The trading profit seems to have come from selling two owned aircraft onto finance leases and they've also revalued the remaining fleet by $29m including impairing one aircraft by $0.9m. The revaluation doesn't go through profit or EPS but straight to reserves. Div up marginally. As ever the run rate of aircraft delivered late in the year will be fully shown in next year's numbers so less the impact of selling mid-life aircraft revenue and profit should continue to grow. With the revaluation and profit, book value per share has increased dramatically to $3.11 per share or £2.32 so even with the recent share price increase, the discount to NAV is around 30%. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
31/7/2016 16:43	carcosa: jamesjoel: IMO I would not anticipate anything dramatic for quite a while. Partly due to the fact that aircraft leasing companies, especially small ones like AVAP are not well understood when listed in London, unlike their American listed counterparts. If AVAP gain no more orders other than those previously announced then the A320's contributions will make H1 2017 and full year 2017 a magnitude or order better in terms of assets and profits. Lease revenue of a A320 is almost 3 times that of a ATR72. It's just that this years' numbers are lacklustre in comparison to 2015 due to the lack of new A320 contributions and partly the cost of the GMTN notes. In the real world AVAP can be expected to expand their aircraft portfolio over and above current orders. The nice thing about aircraft leasing companies, especially AVAP, is that it's quite easy to construct your own spreadsheet and determine the likely revenues from each aircraft, asset valuation etc based on historical AVAP reports and general aircraft leasing reports to establish a baseline growth of revenue and NAV's. (The only 'iffy' bit is when AVAP sell an old aircraft and determining the likely value they got for it) Depending on how the company want to 'spin' this years results we should get a modest shareprice improvement (~5%) or, if they really stress the 'future', a reasonable price hike (~10%). Over the last 18 months I have been buying on the 'dips'. However, for me, if in 18 months from now the share price has not gone up by at least 50% I shall be disappointed, to say the least because of the explosive growth I expect. Read Full Thread Follow Reply

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