Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Avation Plc LSE:AVAP London Ordinary Share GB00B196F554 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -15.00 -10.91% 122.50 65,861 15:34:59
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
115.00 130.00 137.50 122.50 137.50
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Industrial Transportation 93.96 20.13 31.72 3.8 77
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
15:31:23 O 5,180 117.00 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
31/3/202017:17Avation - Fly to Let2,436
25/1/201312:03Avation traded on Plus753
01/10/201019:35Flying High?-

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Avation Daily Update: Avation Plc is listed in the Industrial Transportation sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AVAP. The last closing price for Avation was 137.50p.
Avation Plc has a 4 week average price of 122.50p and a 12 week average price of 122.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 335p while the 1 year low share price is currently 122.50p.
There are currently 62,689,942 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 75,495 shares. The market capitalisation of Avation Plc is £76,795,178.95.
quepassa: So much wide-spread media talk about catastrophic conditions in the civil aviation sector. READ THIS REPORT TODAY BY CAPA - CENTRE FOR AVIATION. The report is headed "By the end of May, MOST AIRLINES WILL BE BANKRUPT" hXXps:// Although a fan of Avation, in my opinion the share price has a lot, lot further to fall. Good Luck All. ALL IMO. DYOR. QP
hiraniha: Tip update by Simon Thompson an hour ago.Basically, buy on current share price weakness.
sogoesit: Thought someone had posted it but here is the excerpt within a longer article: "...... Investors are becoming more alert to the ratings discounts, one reason why 2020 has started with a bang for a raft of the small-cap companies I follow as the Brexit discount embedded in rating unwinds. It’s still too large, though, which is why I expect M&A activity to be a recurring theme this year, too. I haven’t had to wait long for the next deal to emerge as aircraft leasing company Avation (AVAP:305p) is in preliminary discussions with one potential bidder, and has appointed US investment bank Wells Fargo to assist with its strategic review. It’s a company I know well. The holding has produced a total return of 108 per cent since I first advised buying the shares ('Get on board for blue-sky gains', 11 Sep 2014), and I last reiterated that advice just below the current share price at the half-year results (‘Avation in the ascent’, 9 Sep 2019). Perhaps reflecting a paucity of research, Avation’s share price is well shy of my estimated 370p minimum take-out price and offers a potentially highly profitable repeat buying opportunity. Discount to sum-of-the parts valuations At the 30 June 2019 financial year-end, Avation owned fleet assets worth $1.27bn (£976m), since when it has taken delivery and leased out two new ATR 72-600 turboprop aircraft. Net asset value (NAV) per share of 374¢ (288p) was based on equity shareholders' funds of $241m (£185m), but there is hidden value in the balance sheet. Firstly, the carrying value of the aircraft is conservative. For example, Avation sold two narrow-body aircraft for 10 per cent more than their book value in the last financial year, booking a $10m net profit in the process. The segment accounts for $600m, or 46 per cent of total fleet assets and includes seven valuable Airbus A321-200 and two Airbus A320-200 aircraft. Two of the A321 planes were previously leased to Thomas Cook and have since been leased out to Asian airline Vietjet Air, a profitable and publicly quoted company and a valued customer of Avation. The point being is there could easily be $60m of surplus equity in the narrow-bodied fleet if marked to open market value, a sum that equates to 96¢ (73p) a share. Secondly, Avation owns 21 ATR 72-600s and six ATR 75-500s, and has a further six ATR 72-600 aircraft on order for delivery between 2020 and 2022. The company also has options over a further 25 of these turboprop aircraft, all of which are held on the balance sheet at nil cost. Each option could easily be worth $500,000 to $1m on the open market given their scarcity value – ATR only manufactures 85 planes a year and demand from China, India and Iran is tightening the regional aviation market for these fuel-efficient aircraft. At the lower end of my estimate, the option value boosts NAV per share by 19¢, or 15p. Thirdly, Avation has a young fleet of plans – average age of 3.7 years – with a weighted average remaining lease term of 7.1 years. The planes have unearned contracted revenue of $921m across a diversified base of 18 airline customers, an attractive and solid revenue stream. Fourthly, the increased scale of the fleet is being recognised in the debt markets (weighted average cost of debt on borrowings improved from 5 to 4.6 per cent last financial year), so the profit earned from contracted revenue is rising as debt service costs fall. Fifthly, Avation is expected to deliver annual revenue of $134m and pre-tax profit of $23.1m in the 12 months to 30 June 2020, having taken into account the security deposits held on the Thomas Cook aircraft, which largely offset lost lease payments between the aircrafts’ repossession last October and subsequent delivery to Vietjet Air. Avation is based in Singapore so pays a minuscule amount of tax, so should have earned net profits of $13m since the 30 June 2019 year-end. Deduct from that sum the $5.3m cost of the final dividend, and I reckon retained profit adds 12.2¢ (9.5p) to NAV per share. So, even if you ignore all the hidden value of the 25 ATR options, it’s not difficult to arrive at a 370p a share sum-of-the-parts valuation. Buy"
carcosa: "Sounded downbeat to me which is unusual." You may be right but I read it as upbeat; confirmation TC aircraft impact is not worth worrying about, revenues ahead, ATR's on schedule... and the very first interim dividend announced. At a guess am thinking its the "but gains on the sale of aircraft will be lower than the comparable period of 2018" part of the RNS which caused the morning price drop (?). The lack of aircraft sales gains can hardly come as a surprise though so I don;t know what to make of it. Comes back to the argument with Avation that it is NAV that should be driving the share price and profitability is of secondary importance. To me that's a very short term outlook. At this stage of the company's life aircraft sales should be seen as icing on the cake. Who knows, those two TC aircraft may be sold in H2 as they are up for sale anyway. You say "WHI reduced FY 20 PBT by 12.5% due to lower lease revenue and timing of ATR deliveries" You read that today?? Based on their September note, Avation will meet the top end of their revenue forecasts IMO and in all likelihood exceed them. So I am non-the-wiser really. If exchange rates were changing significantly then I could put it down to that but at the moment that is not the case. LIBOR rates have not changed a great deal either. So am just "Shrugs"
carcosa: QP, I think you are taking a pessimistic view (but I'm a shareholder, so only natural for me to say that!) On my post on The Lemon Fool I provide past examples of re-allocating A321's over the last few months from large airline bankruptcies; that gives you reasonable timescales to work with. It's not too difficult to work out potential loss of profitability and it's relatively small. Add back re-leasing the aircraft at a potentially greater net interest margin than with Thomas Cook, plus recoveries using the mechanisms identified in today's RNS, and by June 2020 results I doubt you will notice any material difference to profitability. If things go as well as they did with the Air Berlin aircraft then perversely profitability will increase. I have said before that high levels of profitability for an aircraft leasing company is counter-productive as its a sign of not being able to deploy those profits back into higher earning assets. This is why you will never be able to value aircraft leasing companies against FCF. There really should not be any! Hence as a long term investor it remains the NAV as the driving force for the share price for me.
carcosa: Because the discussion with US-Bangla are ongoing and there would still be an LOI or other contract intent that would prevent AVAP perhaps? Braathens might have configured their aircraft differently. Share sale yesterday was tiny and actually took place many days ago. It was the UT trade at the end of day that pulled the reported share price down and today it basically recovered. I don't see today's ATR deal having an influence on the share price to any great degree when it was already highlighted over the past few weeks. I see oil price and exchange rates as the highest risk to the share price in the short term.
harrogate: While they call it a cash flow hedge on the results it is actually an interest rate hedge. As they say in the results over 90% of the borrowings are fixed or hedged. So they have lots of hedges in place to protect against interest rate rises. The downside of that is that you potentially lose some of the upside when rates fall. Given that they have had to show what the "cost " of that has been by marking the hedges to market. The $18m will be the amount that the hedges will cost them over the life of those hedges if rates stayed the same as at June 19 over the length of each hedge. So none cash and should reverse over time and if interest rates go up then disappear quickly and we get a large increase in NAV just as it has been a hit to that now. having said that the share price looks up with events for now but that could change if they do some decent deals on airbus
carcosa: Looks like someone managed to get £1.34m worth of shares according to this Post Trade Deferral Off-Book report. That's about 0.9% of the company. May also be the reason for the 2.6% increase in the share price of late; but I thought such trades were only protected for 48 hours? It's also reported at todays 'buy' price. Could someone, maybe a trader explain the most likely underlying story?
davidosh: Just to mention that AVAP will have a stand and be presenting at our MelloSouth event in Hever,Kent on 14th June and all shareholders and potential investors are welcome to attend Http:// Richard Wolanski for Avation has presented at our Mello events on a number of occasions before and the company are very popular with Mello investors with the share price having doubled plus dividends for early investors and those who attended Mello2014 where Richard presented. We are very pleased to welcome him back as he unfortunately could not make it to Mello2018 last month in Derby so this is an ideal opportunity to meet the management and hear about their strategy. Do come and join us at this quality event and there will be at least 25 other companies to meet plus some fabulous keynote speakers and a large number of fund managers presenting and on panel sessions. Http://
carcosa: Today, Avation released it's FY prelims. Overall the ATR aircraft are once again selling like hotcakes around the world and production slots are likely at a premium. Avation currently holds a number of production slots values in excess of $3m but quite possibly worth a tad more. Demand for the ATR aircraft has resulted potential and meaningful gains on aircraft sales against their deprecitation book value. As Avation tend not to hold on to old aircraft the industry depreciation rate will continue to hide the hidden value in their ATR portfolio. This past year Avation were approached by several entities wanting to buy their ATR fleet at a substantial premium over book. Whilst as first glance this sounds an excellent outcome, in practice it would have resulted in the company effectivly going back to 'sqaure one'. A compromise of selling a portion of the fleet was made resulting in a gain of $5.3m or I estimate about 5% over book value; lower than I initially thought at the time of the sale. Their headline numbers showed: NB: Items in brackets are (Consensus Forecasts) [My forecasts] Lease Revenue up 32% at $94.2 million ($94m) [$92.8m]; Operating Profit grew 32% to $60.2 million; [$56.1] Profit before taxation increased by 18% to $21.4 million ($19.7m) [$24.3m] Total profit after tax increased 16% to $21.3 million; (19.7m) [$21.9m] Operating cash flows increased 20% to $63.0 million; Dividend per share increased by 85% to 6.00 US cents; and Earnings per share ("EPS") increased by 6% to 36.3 US cents.($0.32) [$0.36] Other areas of improvement include a lower LTV of 72% and an upgrade in the credit rating. Sitting on a hefty cash pile following the ATR sales too Of particular interest was their annoucement that they would now start to consider wide-bodied aircraft to be added to the fleet. Thi sis a new development and something that they have shied away from in the past. It suggests that narrowbodied aircraft valuations are high and, although potentially higher risk perhaps the returns from widebodied aircraft are more attactive now. Certainly lease income form one widebodies aircraft, if less that 8 years old, is a multiple of that obtainable from ATR's and indeed narrow-bodied jet aircraft. Interesting to note that for the first time Avation have not split out asset valuations between jet and turboprop aircraft (or may have to wait for the annual report for that detail). The 'real' measure for share price valuation is the book value/share which stands at $3.21/share Current share price in $ terms is ~246p which is marginally below yesterdays closing price. However a fair view is that the share price should be a multiple of the book value. Going forward however, the loss of lease revenue from the now sold 6 ATR's is going to substantially decrease lease revenue and aircraft asset valuatoin next year. However it is in the nature of their business to aquire further aircraft and if they announce additions to the fleet within the next three months then I am comfortable with the current share price. Questions: Previous years Avation have shied away from wide-bodied aircraft entering the fleet. In today's prelims there is an indication that they are considering this aircraft type now. Why the change of heart? (narrow bodied valuations too high?) Why is the tax charge so low? Is this a timing issue?
Avation share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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