Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Avation Plc LSE:AVAP London Ordinary Share GB00B196F554 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -4.00 -3.23% 120.00 45,998 15:09:47
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
117.00 123.00 122.50 120.00 122.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Industrial Transportation 109.21 11.82 12.42 10.8 75
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:36:43 O 7,500 120.00 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
07/3/202111:47Avation - Fly to Let2,681
25/1/201312:03Avation traded on Plus753
01/10/201018:35Flying High?-

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Avation Daily Update: Avation Plc is listed in the Industrial Transportation sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AVAP. The last closing price for Avation was 124p.
Avation Plc has a 4 week average price of 93.50p and a 12 week average price of 93.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 262p while the 1 year low share price is currently 90p.
There are currently 62,689,942 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 199,842 shares. The market capitalisation of Avation Plc is £75,227,930.40.
paulbutcher1999: Yes he did a couple of times. Repeated most recently on 14 Feb. He concluded with this: “The bottom line is that with Avation’s market capitalisation of £71m less than half net asset value of £160m (254p a share), potential for pre-tax profit after debt service payments to recover to more than US$20m in the 2022/23 financial year (as per the financial projections given to bondholders), is simply not being priced in. As the heightened risk premium that has been depressing Avation’s valuation since I last suggested buying the shares, at 132p (‘Three undervalued small-cap shares, 5 May 2020) starts to unwind, and airline traffic recovers, the share price should literally take-off. Recovery buy.“
harrogate: Until we see a set of numbers with all this stuff built in and a resulting net asset per share number it is impossible to value the equity. That could be the June 21 balance sheet released in say Sept 21. Until then we are guessing. I am hanging on as I am guessing it is north of current share price
wigwammer: 63m shares currently in issue, 6m warrants, 9.5% dilution, or circa 10%. Bond prices don't come into it.. "Bondholders to receive 6,000,000 warrants to subscribe for ordinary shares exercisable to 31 October 2026 at a price of 114.5p per share (including cashless exercise option)"
cc2014: At 65c in November, you would have paid $65,000 and got back $103,000. Which is $38,000 or 58.5% over 6 months or 117% on an annualised basis. The yield isn't changing, it's just that the time defray has altered the maths. One final observation. If I can get a 125% in 4 months in investing in the bonds, then by equivalence the share price would have to rise to 240p to get the same return.
cc2014: "The current yield you describe reflects a perception of a company’s ability to generate cash to cover bond payments" No, the yield describes what borrowers are prepared to lend at. If I felt the yield at 125% was good value I would go and buy some in the market, the bond price would rise slightly and the yield dropping to 120% or whatever. But, no-one wants to buy those bonds, even at 125%. It's telling us something. Now consider the following. AVAP has to pay back $300m in May. If it had cash or access to cash it could buy these back itself for $225m right now at 75c on the dollar. But it can't because it isn't generating cash and no-one wants to lend it any cash. Sure, you are right and perceptions may change but AVAP are still stuck with the problem that even if all cash-flows immediately started tomorrow on all planes, in the current climate lenders now want a higher interest rate than pre-Covid. Effectively the margin AVAP were making in the middle no longer exists.
wigwammer: The current yield you describe reflects a perception of a company's ability to generate cash to cover bond payments - that perception can change rapidly, just like a share price. The yield as you calculate it - of course - changes as the price moves. Tail wag dog. What I'm interested in is what drives the price. So I ask again, any good reasons why investors won't buy associated bonds and equity in anticipation of a recovery in the aviation leasing market?
russman: It is a small leasing company; AVAP needs cheap debt finance to grow. Their business model is broken if the bonds cannot be refinanced at a cheaper rate than AVAP lease their fleet out.
harrogate: As it has been for at least 6 months this is all about the bonds. If they get refunded on reasonable terms maybe out by 2 or 3 years the company will have the chance to benefit from all the industry situations you mentioned. If they play hardball all that upside could go to bond holders. I am still betting that they will refinance on terms that will make this share price too low but as time goes on it gets squeaky
harrogate: Ha ha. Yes mainly bears on here. At least you will know your fate fairly quickly with these. If they reschedule the $340m of bonds due next May in a sensible way without pain to shareholders the share price will go up and if they can't it will go down. The bonds are currently trading around 68c on the $ having been as low as 59c. I am a holder and on balance with vaccine news think they will
cc2014: With regard to 2,3 and 4 I'm sad to say companies not providing important information by omission has become common. (And why I'm sitting on lots of cash as there appears be be huge amount of inexperienced retail investors in the market bidding up share prices too high) I think this comes back to your point 1. The directors have a vested interest in keeping the share price up. Any answer to 1 is conjecture but my assumption was that despite the directors public statements about the company being undervalued, they wanted out whilst the market was bouyant. My view is that even before Covid they were carrying far more credit risk than the market was pricing into the share price.
Avation share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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