Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Avation Plc LSE:AVAP London Ordinary Share GB00B196F554 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  2.00 0.74% 272.00 10,056 08:00:07
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
270.00 274.00 272.00 270.00 272.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Industrial Transportation 82.56 14.32 24.38 10.5 175.0
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
14:29:30 O 750 272.00 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
15/7/201912:28Avation - Fly to Let2,288
25/1/201312:03Avation traded on Plus753
01/10/201019:35Flying High?-

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Avation Daily Update: Avation Plc is listed in the Industrial Transportation sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AVAP. The last closing price for Avation was 270p.
Avation Plc has a 4 week average price of 265p and a 12 week average price of 265p.
The 1 year high share price is 299p while the 1 year low share price is currently 214p.
There are currently 64,309,939 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 58,829 shares. The market capitalisation of Avation Plc is £174,923,034.08.
carcosa: Looks like someone managed to get £1.34m worth of shares according to this Post Trade Deferral Off-Book report. That's about 0.9% of the company. May also be the reason for the 2.6% increase in the share price of late; but I thought such trades were only protected for 48 hours? It's also reported at todays 'buy' price. Could someone, maybe a trader explain the most likely underlying story?
davidosh: Just to mention that AVAP will have a stand and be presenting at our MelloSouth event in Hever,Kent on 14th June and all shareholders and potential investors are welcome to attend Http:// Richard Wolanski for Avation has presented at our Mello events on a number of occasions before and the company are very popular with Mello investors with the share price having doubled plus dividends for early investors and those who attended Mello2014 where Richard presented. We are very pleased to welcome him back as he unfortunately could not make it to Mello2018 last month in Derby so this is an ideal opportunity to meet the management and hear about their strategy. Do come and join us at this quality event and there will be at least 25 other companies to meet plus some fabulous keynote speakers and a large number of fund managers presenting and on panel sessions. Http://
carcosa: Hi harrogate, I very much doubt that. Mandarin Airlines is a subsidiary of China Airlines and hence a major carrier. Very savvy/drive a hard bargain etc. What has happened is that Avation have had to sweeten the deal.. or 'add value'. If you read between the lines of the RNS, I reckon that ATR have provided the pilot training/aircrew and Avation have paid for it. In the grand scheme of things it is a minor cost over the lease term. The good news is that Mandarin should have got the aircraft at a much lower than average price compared to most of the ATR fleet. Financially the airline will have a very good credit rating (I expect) which may have allowed the financing cost to be a little lower, more than enough to defray the pilot training costs. Although the revenues (based on the acquisition cost) will be a bit lower, what it also means is that it will give Avation the opportunity to review the market value of these aircraft and end up with a NAV above purchase price which will be supportive to the share price.
harrogate: Given that they spend a lot of time raising cash through various loan note offers and struggled to get one of them away recently and seem to pay 7% + on these I still don't see the point in buybacks = why not use the free cash to fund more aircraft and grow the company and let the share price look after itself? They have done a brilliant job and I have not sold a share in these for years as I see great potential.
carcosa: One of the nice things about Avation is that it is very easy to work out lease revenue of the current and announced fleet changes. Those forecasts of which you refer to are a million miles away from expectations in my opinion. If Avation manages to get a twin-aisle seat into their fleet then the lease revenue will increase substantially; will have to wait and see on that one. Also there appears to be an exceptional gain likely from the Air Berlin A320 and potential gains from the sale of ATR production slots. Avation is not an aircraft operator; they are a leasing company. The airlines are the operator and hence take all the operational risk. As with any other leasing company they will sell the assets if they believe it is worth so doing. The 'nice' thing is that the can choose if and when to sell an aircraft; there is nothing really forcing them to sell an aircraft (although as the business grows am not so certain that statement would hold true) Most ATR leases are a 6+6 i,e, 6 years plus an option to extend a further 6 years. Some are on 10 year leases. The A321's are on a 12 year lease, expiring 2028. I would not be overly concerned with PE ratios for Avation. Share price, in my opinion for a leasing company, should be a reflection of NAV. Have a look at the investor presentation material on their website for further info. FWIW i estimate FY 2018 total revenues to be $101m without yet to be announced fleet changes.
jamesjoel: Just listened to the interview on proactive investor and the finance director seems confident in massive growth going forward.Says the shares are undervalued compared to its peers but will rerate as the company keeps preforming.The share price reaction at the moment is some what surprising considering the companies potential.Profit taking or a tree shake? One to hold and add on any weakness and reinvest and compound the dividend I think!
carcosa: Today, Avation released it's FY prelims. Overall the ATR aircraft are once again selling like hotcakes around the world and production slots are likely at a premium. Avation currently holds a number of production slots values in excess of $3m but quite possibly worth a tad more. Demand for the ATR aircraft has resulted potential and meaningful gains on aircraft sales against their deprecitation book value. As Avation tend not to hold on to old aircraft the industry depreciation rate will continue to hide the hidden value in their ATR portfolio. This past year Avation were approached by several entities wanting to buy their ATR fleet at a substantial premium over book. Whilst as first glance this sounds an excellent outcome, in practice it would have resulted in the company effectivly going back to 'sqaure one'. A compromise of selling a portion of the fleet was made resulting in a gain of $5.3m or I estimate about 5% over book value; lower than I initially thought at the time of the sale. Their headline numbers showed: NB: Items in brackets are (Consensus Forecasts) [My forecasts] Lease Revenue up 32% at $94.2 million ($94m) [$92.8m]; Operating Profit grew 32% to $60.2 million; [$56.1] Profit before taxation increased by 18% to $21.4 million ($19.7m) [$24.3m] Total profit after tax increased 16% to $21.3 million; (19.7m) [$21.9m] Operating cash flows increased 20% to $63.0 million; Dividend per share increased by 85% to 6.00 US cents; and Earnings per share ("EPS") increased by 6% to 36.3 US cents.($0.32) [$0.36] Other areas of improvement include a lower LTV of 72% and an upgrade in the credit rating. Sitting on a hefty cash pile following the ATR sales too Of particular interest was their annoucement that they would now start to consider wide-bodied aircraft to be added to the fleet. Thi sis a new development and something that they have shied away from in the past. It suggests that narrowbodied aircraft valuations are high and, although potentially higher risk perhaps the returns from widebodied aircraft are more attactive now. Certainly lease income form one widebodies aircraft, if less that 8 years old, is a multiple of that obtainable from ATR's and indeed narrow-bodied jet aircraft. Interesting to note that for the first time Avation have not split out asset valuations between jet and turboprop aircraft (or may have to wait for the annual report for that detail). The 'real' measure for share price valuation is the book value/share which stands at $3.21/share Current share price in $ terms is ~246p which is marginally below yesterdays closing price. However a fair view is that the share price should be a multiple of the book value. Going forward however, the loss of lease revenue from the now sold 6 ATR's is going to substantially decrease lease revenue and aircraft asset valuatoin next year. However it is in the nature of their business to aquire further aircraft and if they announce additions to the fleet within the next three months then I am comfortable with the current share price. Questions: Previous years Avation have shied away from wide-bodied aircraft entering the fleet. In today's prelims there is an indication that they are considering this aircraft type now. Why the change of heart? (narrow bodied valuations too high?) Why is the tax charge so low? Is this a timing issue?
trytotakeiteasy: Share price seems a bit weak. Any exposure to Air Berlin?
carcosa: It took them nearly 9 months to place those last 3 ATR's; which is a bit surprising. I also notde they were non-specific regarding the lease length of those latest aircraft; unlike prior announcements. Also the implication is that they are non-revenue earning between factory delivery to AVAP and delivery to the lessee. Also they have had some older narrow bodied aircraft for sale for a long time now with no progress being made; although the recent extention/new customer of A320/MSN1607 was welcome news although I note they did not make mention of the contingency payment related to that aircraft at the end of its current lease. Looking ahead to FY 2018 the current fleet would result in about a $5m shortfall in revenue compared to this year's expectation with a substantial reduction in profits. As things stand at the moment P/NTAV is around 1.0 which some would consider is about right. However between now and June 2018 a lot has to happen to support the share price and that is most likely to be more jet aircraft to up the NAV. Am a bit disappointed that has yet to happen because the last six months or so have been a bit slow; I was hoping once the ATR sale had completed a raft of announcements would be forthcoming but this has not happened. With LIBOR rates creeping up what they do now can have significant implications for re-leasing of aircraft in years to come. The other item that may assist the share price is an upward revaluation of the current ATR fleet (assuming no change to the Airbus fleet). There is plenty of anecdotal evidence that this is a possibility. Then, if they ever get rid of the older Airbus aircraft above book value that could dramatically positively affect the balance sheet; but I really wouldn't hold out much hope of that happening anytime soon or if it did the premium might actually be negative/small. Right now I feel the share price reflects the value of the company but given the results (and why do they have to be issued so late after closing the books??) are due I'm inclined to wait-and-see what they say about the future before considering selling my shares (first bought 2013) Basically, business as usual.
carcosa: jamesjoel: IMO I would not anticipate anything dramatic for quite a while. Partly due to the fact that aircraft leasing companies, especially small ones like AVAP are not well understood when listed in London, unlike their American listed counterparts. If AVAP gain no more orders other than those previously announced then the A320's contributions will make H1 2017 and full year 2017 a magnitude or order better in terms of assets and profits. Lease revenue of a A320 is almost 3 times that of a ATR72. It's just that this years' numbers are lacklustre in comparison to 2015 due to the lack of new A320 contributions and partly the cost of the GMTN notes. In the real world AVAP can be expected to expand their aircraft portfolio over and above current orders. The nice thing about aircraft leasing companies, especially AVAP, is that it's quite easy to construct your own spreadsheet and determine the likely revenues from each aircraft, asset valuation etc based on historical AVAP reports and general aircraft leasing reports to establish a baseline growth of revenue and NAV's. (The only 'iffy' bit is when AVAP sell an old aircraft and determining the likely value they got for it) Depending on how the company want to 'spin' this years results we should get a modest shareprice improvement (~5%) or, if they really stress the 'future', a reasonable price hike (~10%). Over the last 18 months I have been buying on the 'dips'. However, for me, if in 18 months from now the share price has not gone up by at least 50% I shall be disappointed, to say the least because of the explosive growth I expect.
Avation share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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