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AVAP Avation Plc

1.00 (0.82%)
08 Dec 2023 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Avation Plc LSE:AVAP London Ordinary Share GB00B196F554 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  1.00 0.82% 123.50 130,743 09:13:29
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
123.00 124.00 123.50 122.75 123.00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Equip Rental & Leasing, Nec USD 91.86M USD 12.19M USD 0.1753 7.05 85.88M
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
17:06:31 O 50,000 123.125 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
24/11/202313:59Avation - Fly to Let2,988
25/1/201312:03Avation traded on Plus753
01/10/201018:35Flying High?-

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Posted at 09/12/2023 08:20 by Avation Daily Update
Avation Plc is listed in the Equip Rental & Leasing, Nec sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AVAP. The last closing price for Avation was 122.50p.
Avation currently has 69,535,124 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Avation is £85,875,878.
Avation has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 7.05.
This morning AVAP shares opened at 123p
Posted at 23/11/2023 14:29 by sphere25
So no price mentioned on the takeover proposal, just that it was in the summer. The price was loitering around that 122p mark in June before falling toward 100p as the summer passed.

So was it a premium to the offer in June or more likely an opportunistic premium on the fall later on?

Nothing irregular in the price movements over the summer months to suggest a price. If the market got a sniff of the price today, or shortly, then maybe they come in and buy bigger to bid the price up. It looks like sellers in size guarding that breakout above 130p and no real inclination for a move higher right now. It has had a decent pop higher already on the stake building.

If they couldn't get the financing in the summer, probably less likely now, but I wonder if they will eventually come back for another go.

It looks worth keeping an eye on.

All imo
Posted at 17/11/2023 10:24 by extrader
Here's an old article on Raper's investment approach :

.."As for investment decision process - this is a complex, multi-step process, but in general, I try to answer the following questions:

1) does this meet my minimum criteria for valuation (i.e., in general I won't buy anything more than 10x normalized free cash flow)?

2) does this have a strong downside protection (derived from asset value, or strategic value to an acquirer, or through potential strategic action)?

3) what does the market not understand about the value/quality of the business and how will that change in the next 12mos? i.e., what is going to get the market to view this asset like I do? What is the catalyst to rerate it?

Assuming all three of these criteria are met, then it can theoretically go into the book, provided point 3) is satisfied in spades - that is, I need to be fully convinced something is going to change, fairly imminently, as cheapness and downside protection alone are never enough.

I wonder what he thinks the catalyst for AVAP is - industry consolidation?

Posted at 17/11/2023 07:51 by harrogate
Lets kick off with this recent podcast/YouTube video with Jeremy Raper in relation to Avation "So I raised an SPV recently and this is live, this is public disclosed. I've made the filing. So I'm, I'm not going to talk about the strategy or specifically the company. But you know, yeah I've raised, I've raised money and taken entities I manage have taken a 20 something percent stake in a listed aircraft leasing company in the UK called Avation, AVAP, this is, this is all public filings and you know my goal is to maximize value for all shareholders.It's a very, it's a very, it's ostensibly a very cheap equity and I have a number of ideas to to kind of create value for all shareholders. And I think, I think having more bullets in the gun so to speak will be beneficial to to all shareholders of the company."
Posted at 10/11/2023 10:28 by harrogate
I don't see why anyone would get ripped off. We are all guessing but I doubt this is a wait and see what happens. It seems to me that the AVAP ability to grow and the NAV is all about those ATR purchase rights. We haven't yet seen evidence of how they can get hold of those planes given ATR production schedules or fund them. An increase in NAV is going to be slow. My bet is they need a deal of some sort.
Posted at 10/11/2023 09:44 by fishbournetrader
I am sure that it is a plan to rip off us long term holders.
Do not forget that when the share price was in the 250p to 300p range there was an offer on the table which was turned down by the board because they thought they could get better. I had built a stake 7 years preceding that offer so now a holder for over 10 years.
Posted at 01/11/2023 13:26 by a_game
And the warrant sale by Jeff today. Notice the price has just trended up despite this ~£375k sale on the highly illiquid market for AVAP. I would hazard a guess Rangeley Capital was the buyer and Jeff providing them liquidity.
Posted at 01/11/2023 11:33 by my retirement fund
This is indeed an interest development:


Avation PLC (LSE: AVAP), the commercial passenger aircraft leasing company advises that 485,000 share warrants have been granted to directors and other employees of the Company as set out below.

The grant of warrants is pursuant to the authorities and powers given by shareholders at the Company's last annual general meeting. The warrants have been granted subject to the Company's Remuneration Policy as long-term incentives. The warrants were granted by the board at an exercise price of 125.50 pence per share, and each warrant grant is on terms that one third of the warrants will vest at the end of each of the first three years from the date of grant but subject always to clawback under the terms of the Company's Remuneration Policy. The warrants are otherwise granted on customary terms for employee share remuneration.
Posted at 15/8/2023 08:23 by aublune
The share price bounce back to 125p starts here with a bigger bowl to before covid
Posted at 08/8/2023 08:17 by pireric
I've bought a position for similar reasons. Buoyant airline market, structural shift to leasing remains in place. Investors are perhaps also a little slow to remember how resilient the air travel market is and has been over the decades. The pandemic was clearly an isolated event.

An over 60% discount to net book value when some key (admittedly larger) peers are on a 10% discount is excessive. Most peers have also fully recovered their pandemic share price losses, while AVAP is still down more than half.

This is not a sustainable status quo in likelihood; this is a sector that historically had consolidated and I think the pressure for AVAP to be part of that increases the longer the valuation discount at these levels lingers. The demand environment is in robust shape which helps. Where there have been aircraft sales from AVAP they have broadly endorsed book value, I think. 2 ATRs in H2 last year basically at book value, a Boeing earlier this year may be a small impairment, but then an ATR recently at above book value

There is an argument to say that - at these levels - alongside retiring debt, it makes sense to signal to the market with a share buyback. However, liquidity is maybe a big constraining factor there.

Regardless, feels to me the upside downside equation at anywhere near these levels is skewed far more favourably to the upside. Time will tell. This was a pretty well regarded stock and business before COVID hit, but investors have largely forgotten about it and to be fair, the business shape has changed. Fair value in a corporate action could realistically be close to a £2 handle.

Management ought to probably keep a keen eye on those strategic alternatives given the share price disconnect, and the large shareholding Jeff and Oceanwood have. There would be a decent level of cost takeout between G&A and using a lower cost of financing across the group (vs what a larger player could achieve) that could materially improve the embedded economics of any transaction.

Posted at 07/3/2023 12:44 by sogoesit
Some selected paragraphs...

"Nonetheless, it was a very positive outcome and one that shows that the business is clearly heading in the right direction. This has not been lost on investors; Avation’s share price has rallied 36 per cent since I rated the shares, at 102p, a recovery buy at the annual results (‘On a positive trajectory’, 29 September 2022). There should be more upside to come as the shares are still priced on half net asset value (NAV) of 282p even though management has been reducing investment risk, leasing or disposing of off-lease aircraft, and cutting net borrowings by 6 per cent to $747mn, or 62.9 per cent of total assets of $1.19bn.


At this stage of the recovery, the best metric to value the group on is in relation to book value, which largely consists of the net equity held in aircraft, free cash on the balance sheet, the valuation of purchase rights and the net working capital position. On this basis, a 50 per cent share price discount is unwarranted. Buy."
Avation share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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