Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Avation Plc LSE:AVAP London Ordinary Share GB00B196F554 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -1.50 -1.23% 120.00 79,025 16:35:18
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
118.00 125.00 121.50 121.50 121.50
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Industrial Transportation 93.96 20.13 31.72 3.8 75
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:35:27 O 40,000 121.50 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
14/9/202013:36Avation - Fly to Let2,550
25/1/201312:03Avation traded on Plus753
01/10/201019:35Flying High?-

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Avation Daily Update: Avation Plc is listed in the Industrial Transportation sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AVAP. The last closing price for Avation was 121.50p.
Avation Plc has a 4 week average price of 120p and a 12 week average price of 120p.
The 1 year high share price is 335p while the 1 year low share price is currently 102.25p.
There are currently 62,689,942 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 17,696 shares. The market capitalisation of Avation Plc is £75,227,930.40.
russman: The share price is the sideshow now. It is whether AVAP can refinance the bond repayment in full. The bondholders guess not.
smegster: Hi QuePassa Here is the latest Avation investor presentation, which deals with most of your points hxxps:// "several aircraft in limbo." "a very big haircut on the monies they are owed." Slide 9 - Exposure to Virgin is manageable 5 ATR72-600's likely to be retained following restructuring Of the 6 ATR-500s, 2 have been leased to other airlines and there is interest from European airlines for the other 4 "the question of refinancing next May's bond will continue to loom large." Slide 4 - Continued support from lenders (e.g. key lending banks have adjusted loan amotizations). - With 16 out of 18 of its customers flying (and therefore continuing to pay rent although some of this rent has been rescheduled), there is no indication why the company would not be able to refinance the bond. - We do not seems to be in a credit crunch situation, where credit has tried up, the appetite for bond issuing still seems strong. "....and the big question is that the aviation industry is not yet significantly recovering or rebounding and many countries are still tightening lockdown and travel restrictions." Slide 10/3 - Avation has been affected by the wider aviation downturn but not as much as most companies due to it customer base - provides planes for domestic and short haul flights - least affected by lockdown and the first to come back on-line - has customers in Asia which have not been subject to lockdown - provided planes for national carriers which have/are likely to receive government support I am a holder. I am not worried by the drop in Avation share price, as I know this has due to (misplaced) wider concerns about the aviation industry and has not been due to company specific issues.
cc2014: With regard to 2,3 and 4 I'm sad to say companies not providing important information by omission has become common. (And why I'm sitting on lots of cash as there appears be be huge amount of inexperienced retail investors in the market bidding up share prices too high) I think this comes back to your point 1. The directors have a vested interest in keeping the share price up. Any answer to 1 is conjecture but my assumption was that despite the directors public statements about the company being undervalued, they wanted out whilst the market was bouyant. My view is that even before Covid they were carrying far more credit risk than the market was pricing into the share price.
harrogate: Thanks. I was on the call and that is a great summary. Generally positive given the situation. Hard to estimate current NAV here now and I am sure the days of £3 + share price are a long way away. But £1.20 looks low but I guess the corporate action is really off the table and it would be a brave man to forecast timing and extent of recovery in air travelOne thing I would add to your notes on the call is that the majority of the 21 and 22 lease ends are the virgin Australia ATRs
quepassa: So much wide-spread media talk about catastrophic conditions in the civil aviation sector. READ THIS REPORT TODAY BY CAPA - CENTRE FOR AVIATION. The report is headed "By the end of May, MOST AIRLINES WILL BE BANKRUPT" hXXps:// Although a fan of Avation, in my opinion the share price has a lot, lot further to fall. Good Luck All. ALL IMO. DYOR. QP
hiraniha: Tip update by Simon Thompson an hour ago.Basically, buy on current share price weakness.
sogoesit: Thought someone had posted it but here is the excerpt within a longer article: "...... Investors are becoming more alert to the ratings discounts, one reason why 2020 has started with a bang for a raft of the small-cap companies I follow as the Brexit discount embedded in rating unwinds. It’s still too large, though, which is why I expect M&A activity to be a recurring theme this year, too. I haven’t had to wait long for the next deal to emerge as aircraft leasing company Avation (AVAP:305p) is in preliminary discussions with one potential bidder, and has appointed US investment bank Wells Fargo to assist with its strategic review. It’s a company I know well. The holding has produced a total return of 108 per cent since I first advised buying the shares ('Get on board for blue-sky gains', 11 Sep 2014), and I last reiterated that advice just below the current share price at the half-year results (‘Avation in the ascent’, 9 Sep 2019). Perhaps reflecting a paucity of research, Avation’s share price is well shy of my estimated 370p minimum take-out price and offers a potentially highly profitable repeat buying opportunity. Discount to sum-of-the parts valuations At the 30 June 2019 financial year-end, Avation owned fleet assets worth $1.27bn (£976m), since when it has taken delivery and leased out two new ATR 72-600 turboprop aircraft. Net asset value (NAV) per share of 374¢ (288p) was based on equity shareholders' funds of $241m (£185m), but there is hidden value in the balance sheet. Firstly, the carrying value of the aircraft is conservative. For example, Avation sold two narrow-body aircraft for 10 per cent more than their book value in the last financial year, booking a $10m net profit in the process. The segment accounts for $600m, or 46 per cent of total fleet assets and includes seven valuable Airbus A321-200 and two Airbus A320-200 aircraft. Two of the A321 planes were previously leased to Thomas Cook and have since been leased out to Asian airline Vietjet Air, a profitable and publicly quoted company and a valued customer of Avation. The point being is there could easily be $60m of surplus equity in the narrow-bodied fleet if marked to open market value, a sum that equates to 96¢ (73p) a share. Secondly, Avation owns 21 ATR 72-600s and six ATR 75-500s, and has a further six ATR 72-600 aircraft on order for delivery between 2020 and 2022. The company also has options over a further 25 of these turboprop aircraft, all of which are held on the balance sheet at nil cost. Each option could easily be worth $500,000 to $1m on the open market given their scarcity value – ATR only manufactures 85 planes a year and demand from China, India and Iran is tightening the regional aviation market for these fuel-efficient aircraft. At the lower end of my estimate, the option value boosts NAV per share by 19¢, or 15p. Thirdly, Avation has a young fleet of plans – average age of 3.7 years – with a weighted average remaining lease term of 7.1 years. The planes have unearned contracted revenue of $921m across a diversified base of 18 airline customers, an attractive and solid revenue stream. Fourthly, the increased scale of the fleet is being recognised in the debt markets (weighted average cost of debt on borrowings improved from 5 to 4.6 per cent last financial year), so the profit earned from contracted revenue is rising as debt service costs fall. Fifthly, Avation is expected to deliver annual revenue of $134m and pre-tax profit of $23.1m in the 12 months to 30 June 2020, having taken into account the security deposits held on the Thomas Cook aircraft, which largely offset lost lease payments between the aircrafts’ repossession last October and subsequent delivery to Vietjet Air. Avation is based in Singapore so pays a minuscule amount of tax, so should have earned net profits of $13m since the 30 June 2019 year-end. Deduct from that sum the $5.3m cost of the final dividend, and I reckon retained profit adds 12.2¢ (9.5p) to NAV per share. So, even if you ignore all the hidden value of the 25 ATR options, it’s not difficult to arrive at a 370p a share sum-of-the-parts valuation. Buy"
carcosa: "Sounded downbeat to me which is unusual." You may be right but I read it as upbeat; confirmation TC aircraft impact is not worth worrying about, revenues ahead, ATR's on schedule... and the very first interim dividend announced. At a guess am thinking its the "but gains on the sale of aircraft will be lower than the comparable period of 2018" part of the RNS which caused the morning price drop (?). The lack of aircraft sales gains can hardly come as a surprise though so I don;t know what to make of it. Comes back to the argument with Avation that it is NAV that should be driving the share price and profitability is of secondary importance. To me that's a very short term outlook. At this stage of the company's life aircraft sales should be seen as icing on the cake. Who knows, those two TC aircraft may be sold in H2 as they are up for sale anyway. You say "WHI reduced FY 20 PBT by 12.5% due to lower lease revenue and timing of ATR deliveries" You read that today?? Based on their September note, Avation will meet the top end of their revenue forecasts IMO and in all likelihood exceed them. So I am non-the-wiser really. If exchange rates were changing significantly then I could put it down to that but at the moment that is not the case. LIBOR rates have not changed a great deal either. So am just "Shrugs"
carcosa: QP, I think you are taking a pessimistic view (but I'm a shareholder, so only natural for me to say that!) On my post on The Lemon Fool I provide past examples of re-allocating A321's over the last few months from large airline bankruptcies; that gives you reasonable timescales to work with. It's not too difficult to work out potential loss of profitability and it's relatively small. Add back re-leasing the aircraft at a potentially greater net interest margin than with Thomas Cook, plus recoveries using the mechanisms identified in today's RNS, and by June 2020 results I doubt you will notice any material difference to profitability. If things go as well as they did with the Air Berlin aircraft then perversely profitability will increase. I have said before that high levels of profitability for an aircraft leasing company is counter-productive as its a sign of not being able to deploy those profits back into higher earning assets. This is why you will never be able to value aircraft leasing companies against FCF. There really should not be any! Hence as a long term investor it remains the NAV as the driving force for the share price for me.
carcosa: Because the discussion with US-Bangla are ongoing and there would still be an LOI or other contract intent that would prevent AVAP perhaps? Braathens might have configured their aircraft differently. Share sale yesterday was tiny and actually took place many days ago. It was the UT trade at the end of day that pulled the reported share price down and today it basically recovered. I don't see today's ATR deal having an influence on the share price to any great degree when it was already highlighted over the past few weeks. I see oil price and exchange rates as the highest risk to the share price in the short term.
Avation share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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