Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Avation LSE:AVAP London Ordinary Share GB00B196F554 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 235.00p 233.00p 237.00p 235.00p 235.00p 235.00p 18,459 08:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Industrial Transportation 72.4 16.3 27.9 8.8 144.36

Avation Share Discussion Threads

Showing 2826 to 2850 of 2850 messages
Chat Pages: 114  113  112  111  110  109  108  107  106  105  104  103  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
14/9/2017
12:01
jord10 - most debt is fixed cost and is secured against the aircraft. Profits before tax don't reflect cashflow. One of the biggest P&L charges is depreciation which is not related to cash. I would focus on the coverage of interest payments by EBITDA and cashflow. The company looks stronger from that perspective. Although I agree that the underlying business doesn't generate strong returns. This is why the leverage the thing up with loads of debt.
trytotakeiteasy
14/9/2017
11:58
Quite like the look of this company, but is anyone concerned about the debt @ Avation? $648m debt, profits before tax of $21.4m...
jord10
14/9/2017
08:25
Brilliant upwards and onwards
jamesjoel
14/9/2017
07:54
Should be well received. Avation PLC (LSE: AVAP), the commercial passenger aircraft leasing company is pleased to announce it has signed multiple long term leases with two airlines for four aircraft. In response to an analyst question, Avation confirms that it has signed a new lease for a mid life Airbus A321 which will commence on expiry of its existing lease in mid 2018. The aircraft will transition to another European Airline for a term of 72 months at typical commercial rates for a mid life aircraft. Furthermore in respect to the Letter of Intent for three aircraft announced on the 19 July 2017 the long term leases have now been signed. The three aircraft are currently undergoing final configuration and are scheduled to be delivered toward the end of Q4 of 2017.
broadwood
13/9/2017
14:38
I think these guys are smart, I have met Jeff a few times in Singapore and he is very switched on and has a lot of skin in the game, I would say if he thinks that some of the twin isles are value here then I would back hjs judgement, especially if the returns are juicy, the business is basically 75percent a rental business and 25 percent trading aircraft, they have proved adept at both and can see them compounding the business for many years ....
catsick
11/9/2017
23:55
Hi AdamB - one obvious explanation for a small dip in EPS would be because AVAP sold off a Handful of ATR planes recently - although I would not be surprised if they do better than the 17.8p forecast. Especially if they get a few more leases before then. cheers, WD @WheelieDealer
thewheeliedealer
11/9/2017
07:45
One of the nice things about Avation is that it is very easy to work out lease revenue of the current and announced fleet changes. Those forecasts of which you refer to are a million miles away from expectations in my opinion. If Avation manages to get a twin-aisle seat into their fleet then the lease revenue will increase substantially; will have to wait and see on that one. Also there appears to be an exceptional gain likely from the Air Berlin A320 and potential gains from the sale of ATR production slots. Avation is not an aircraft operator; they are a leasing company. The airlines are the operator and hence take all the operational risk. As with any other leasing company they will sell the assets if they believe it is worth so doing. The 'nice' thing is that the can choose if and when to sell an aircraft; there is nothing really forcing them to sell an aircraft (although as the business grows am not so certain that statement would hold true) Most ATR leases are a 6+6 i,e, 6 years plus an option to extend a further 6 years. Some are on 10 year leases. The A321's are on a 12 year lease, expiring 2028. I would not be overly concerned with PE ratios for Avation. Share price, in my opinion for a leasing company, should be a reflection of NAV. Have a look at the investor presentation material on their website for further info. FWIW i estimate FY 2018 total revenues to be $101m without yet to be announced fleet changes.
carcosa
10/9/2017
20:14
Hello I've looked at these on and off but never bought in. I just had a look at the recent results and forecasts for another look and had a couple questions which I wondered whether people could help me with: - the forecasts which I can see imply £66.8m and 17.8p for the year just started. This obviously implies declines at both levels, and particularly meaningful at the bottom line. I don't have the forecasts in $ so it could of course just be FX - are there any reasons why the business would contract this year and does anyone else have other forecasts (ideally in $)? - the outlook statement in the recent results in 5 paras, most of which talks about the trading of aircraft. Do most people invest in this as an aircraft operator or a aircraft trader? The former is probably going to be more stable if they can secure long-term contracts with customers. The latter feels more risky, so would want a lower multiple, and would seem to be much more difficult for an individual investor to forecast Thanks Adam
adamb1978
09/9/2017
19:21
I think it's fair to say that every single year the are confident of massive growth. It is sometimes a bit slow coming. (I hate the words "going forward" ; they can almost always be deleted with no loss of meaning)
martinc
08/9/2017
09:52
Hi. Have you got the link to the interview please. Of course Richard always says that the company is undervalued. Maybe the directors will buy some if that is the case although Jeff certainly has enough
harrogate
08/9/2017
09:38
Just listened to the interview on proactive investor and the finance director seems confident in massive growth going forward.Says the shares are undervalued compared to its peers but will rerate as the company keeps preforming.The share price reaction at the moment is some what surprising considering the companies potential.Profit taking or a tree shake? One to hold and add on any weakness and reinvest and compound the dividend I think!
jamesjoel
08/9/2017
08:38
The replay of the call is now available on the Avation website.
ragehammer
08/9/2017
07:49
Hi. Did anyone listen to the call? I have read the slides now on the website. Wondered if there were any questions that were useful. Especially about the possible move into wide bodied which seems strange given the previous stated strategy to give these a miss?
harrogate
08/9/2017
04:56
rh... Need to consider the debt repayment and recognise that the fleet NAV also declined due change to from operating to finance leasing; but I accept that Total NAV would not be affected by the finance lease. tttit... Not sure I follow your query. Perhaps some confusion between A320's and A321's??? Since last year the A321 movements were as follows June 2016: 6 aircraft July 2016: +1 Vietjet = 7 Aug 2016: +1 Vietjet = 8 Sept 2016: -2 Thomas Cook = 6 Oct 2016: +1 Vietjet and -1 Vietjet = 6 Nov 2016: +1 Vietjet = 7 Dec 2016: +1 Vietjet = 8 HTH's(?)
carcosa
07/9/2017
14:13
can anyone explain this. They had 8 A321's at June 2017 and during the fiscal year bought four of these planes and sold three. This implies a net increase of one plane. However at June 2016 they had 6 A321's. Where did this missing plane come from?
trytotakeiteasy
07/9/2017
12:37
Sorry that's wrong. NAV was boosted when the 6 ATRs were disposed as is shown by the profit on disposal of $5.4m. NAV is total assets, including cash, not just aircraft assets.
ragehammer
07/9/2017
11:59
To be fair the NAV took a large hit with the 6 ATR disposals. I suspect the revaluation is applicable to the A320 older aircraft. As previously flagged, the tax rate for the Singapore Aircraft Leasing Scheme has reduced from 10% to 8% and that probably accounts for the low tax charge this year. Am more sanguine regarding the NAV going forward because that may significantly change over the coming months. Wide-bodies aircraft yields are higher than narrow bodied and it offers the potential to accelerate growth. Debt costs are lower too; particularly with the good credit rating Avation have obtained. It's also easier to get aircraft credits on wide-bodied aircraft. IF Avation can get a couple of theses aircraft on their books then it will have a considerable positive impact on NAV this time next year. Hopefully the webcast will discuss this further today.
carcosa
07/9/2017
11:46
The narrative all sounds quite good, but NAV per share has only increased by 3% to $3.21 from $3.11. This is despite reported EPS of $0.36. There are three key reasons why: 1. Issue of new shares, about 5m shares or 9% over the year. Majority of these were in the placing or for warrants where cash was received in, between 135-155p per share on average. So some dilution there as overall NAV is up 13% but NAV per share is only up 3%. 2. There is a $5.6m hit to revaluation reserves (distinct from the aircraft which were sold). I believe this must be a reversal from where they previously revalued aircraft upwards. Normally downward revaluations (i.e. impairments) would flow through the P&L and hence EPS, but reversals of previous increases go back through OCI and reduce the previously created equity reserve. If there are going to be revaluations up and down going forward then there is even more reason to focus on NAV per share (plus dividends) rather than EPS as the measure of return to shareholders. 3. They appear to have accounted for two dividends in one year. The statement of changes in equity shows dividend paid of $1.8m and dividend payable of $3.7m. Personally I believe it is incorrect treatment in the latter case as the 6 cent dividend was declared as an interim dividend and therefore should be accounted for in the period when paid, i.e. Aug so H1 FY18. They've accounted for it early, so just a timing issue but that's a further hit to NAV per share.
ragehammer
07/9/2017
08:03
Today, Avation released it's FY prelims. https://www.investegate.co.uk/avation-plc--avap-/rns/preliminary-unaudited-financial-results-for-2017/201709070705030791Q/ Overall the ATR aircraft are once again selling like hotcakes around the world and production slots are likely at a premium. Avation currently holds a number of production slots values in excess of $3m but quite possibly worth a tad more. Demand for the ATR aircraft has resulted potential and meaningful gains on aircraft sales against their deprecitation book value. As Avation tend not to hold on to old aircraft the industry depreciation rate will continue to hide the hidden value in their ATR portfolio. This past year Avation were approached by several entities wanting to buy their ATR fleet at a substantial premium over book. Whilst as first glance this sounds an excellent outcome, in practice it would have resulted in the company effectivly going back to 'sqaure one'. A compromise of selling a portion of the fleet was made resulting in a gain of $5.3m or I estimate about 5% over book value; lower than I initially thought at the time of the sale. Their headline numbers showed: NB: Items in brackets are (Consensus Forecasts) [My forecasts] Lease Revenue up 32% at $94.2 million ($94m) [$92.8m]; Operating Profit grew 32% to $60.2 million; [$56.1] Profit before taxation increased by 18% to $21.4 million ($19.7m) [$24.3m] Total profit after tax increased 16% to $21.3 million; (19.7m) [$21.9m] Operating cash flows increased 20% to $63.0 million; Dividend per share increased by 85% to 6.00 US cents; and Earnings per share ("EPS") increased by 6% to 36.3 US cents.($0.32) [$0.36] Other areas of improvement include a lower LTV of 72% and an upgrade in the credit rating. Sitting on a hefty cash pile following the ATR sales too Of particular interest was their annoucement that they would now start to consider wide-bodied aircraft to be added to the fleet. Thi sis a new development and something that they have shied away from in the past. It suggests that narrowbodied aircraft valuations are high and, although potentially higher risk perhaps the returns from widebodied aircraft are more attactive now. Certainly lease income form one widebodies aircraft, if less that 8 years old, is a multiple of that obtainable from ATR's and indeed narrow-bodied jet aircraft. Interesting to note that for the first time Avation have not split out asset valuations between jet and turboprop aircraft (or may have to wait for the annual report for that detail). The 'real' measure for share price valuation is the book value/share which stands at $3.21/share Current share price in $ terms is ~246p which is marginally below yesterdays closing price. However a fair view is that the share price should be a multiple of the book value. Going forward however, the loss of lease revenue from the now sold 6 ATR's is going to substantially decrease lease revenue and aircraft asset valuatoin next year. However it is in the nature of their business to aquire further aircraft and if they announce additions to the fleet within the next three months then I am comfortable with the current share price. Questions: Previous years Avation have shied away from wide-bodied aircraft entering the fleet. In today's prelims there is an indication that they are considering this aircraft type now. Why the change of heart? (narrow bodied valuations too high?) Why is the tax charge so low? Is this a timing issue?
carcosa
07/9/2017
07:45
Decent results, still holding excess cash but sounds like they have plans to spend it, steady compounding of book value should continue...
catsick
07/9/2017
07:27
Good set of results solid growth One to hold?
jamesjoel
17/8/2017
15:58
Richard Wolanski, FD, will be presenting to investors at the upcoming Proactive One2One Forum in London on 7th September. Full details and registration, click here: https://tinyurl.com/yaagmrse
aim_trader
16/8/2017
11:31
Yes. A nine year old A320-200 / D-ABDU/HB-IOR (MSN 3516) leased out until 2021. Can't see the events at Air Berlin having much impact on Avation in the near term though.
carcosa
16/8/2017
11:16
Share price seems a bit weak. Any exposure to Air Berlin?
trytotakeiteasy
09/8/2017
10:04
Seem to have finally breached 250 now where is that russman .......
catsick
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