Avation Share Discussion Threads

[casholaa] 18/7/2023 20:46

Lease revenue to eof June was supposed to be around $90m but I haven't checked whether that came to pass

[harrogate] 18/7/2023 13:55

I think the issue is more likely to be Philippines airline. Worth reading Carcosa on lemonfool. He knows his stuff.

[riverman77] 18/7/2023 13:53

Presumably this potential bad debt would represent only a small percentage of the NAV - I think a 60% discount to NAV should be enough to cushion this loss many times over.

[rimau1] 16/7/2023 20:07

My guess would be the customer is Vietjet and if so given the recent issues with Vietnam/regulators and Aviation companies AVAP may struggle to get paid in a timely way. I suppose i am surprised given that Asian airlines are recovering strongly in 2023 that there is a risk of a bad debt provision in the SE Asia market.

[quepassa] 16/7/2023 12:55

to kick the ball off, what are you own views please on this interesting question which you raise?

[rimau1] 16/7/2023 12:17

This is on my watch list and I hold AA4 so very keen on the recovery potential in the sector, would appreciate views from holders on concerned a potential bad debt provision based on the comments in the July TU? “Trade receivables include a material amount of rent and other arrears due from an airline customer in Southeast Asia. The Company is actively engaged with airline customers who are materially in arrears, including discussion of payment plans. Whilst the Company believes all its customers will satisfy their obligations there is no guarantee the Company will recover all balances due. The Company will review its provisioning against such trade receivables ahead of its full year results announcement.”

[bdbd11] 14/7/2023 15:01

Looking like time to buy the dip, approx back to upward trend line and 60% or so discount to nav

[jimbo123elf] 12/7/2023 08:11

Should be selling an ATR 72–600 about now.

[quepassa] 10/7/2023 08:41

2899 of 13/4 refers.



Since April.

Aercap +15%
Avation -15%

hmm...

all imo. dyor.
qp

[harrogate] 05/7/2023 13:52

It is great that they keep emphasising these ATR purchase rights but they need to demonstrate how they are going to use them to grow. Hopefully lots going on but we seem a bit stuck

[ga_dti] 03/7/2023 09:31

Latest interview with Executive Chairman Jeff Chatfield

Having spoke with numerous aviation investors at the Paris investor day, Jeff shares some of the feedback received, explains how the 30 ATR orders & options are spread, talks about strong demand and constrained supply, excitement for technologies and why 75% of Avation’s revenue is coming from Asia -

[casholaa] 29/5/2023 17:19

Yeah. China just made it's first commercial aircraft but it is heavily dependent upon foreign tech and components/parts.

[my retirement fund] 29/5/2023 10:59

Our 6 a 321s should be in high demand, I hope they have not undersold them and have break clauses.

[my retirement fund] 19/5/2023 16:10

Hopefully due next spike up

[casholaa] 10/5/2023 19:54

The atr that is now available is a new one.

[harrogate] 10/5/2023 18:42

That is a coincidence as my first lot were bought at 14p in 2006. I agree that there will be an end game here in the fairly near future. It could be that the expensive debt would be better refinanced by a buyer with a much better credit rating rather than AVAP and that benefit could be an extra sweetener for the buyer. Would like to see the 2 ATRs on order being placed and maybe an airbus bought and leased out to make the numbers look better

[bdbd11] 10/5/2023 15:48

I believe we are now at the start of the end game for AVAP. My first purchase was at 14p not that long after formation in 2006, trading and holding over the years and at one stage being my largest holding by far. Jeff had been a star player imo, investing heavily in the past. However, at some stage he will want to cash in his chips and the 20 year anniversary may well be enough. I wouldn't be surprised to see him buy even more at these levels. NAV will increase as debt gets paid down and values of aircraft generally increase with the industry set to pass 2019 highs. Any trade sale will obviously be at a discount to nav, but minor compared to current levels. I topped up a little at the open today and will on buy any weakness with the expectation of being out in the next 3 years or so.

[casholaa] 10/5/2023 11:12

Only two aircraft left listed as 'available' now, one atr-72-600 and an airbus 320. Look's like we're pretty much firing on all cylinders now.

[my retirement fund] 10/5/2023 10:21

Did I read that correctly NAV about £2.72 a share ($3.42) ?

[my retirement fund] 10/5/2023 10:17

Looks cracking, should have a bright future. Aviation currently a sector with zero spare capacity and yet growing demand. Margins are improving like never before.

[casholaa] 10/5/2023 09:02

Excellent news and still trading well below nav according to the figure provided in rns.

[harrogate] 10/5/2023 07:31

Great to see the final unleased aircraft placed. Avap start the new financial year then in a good place and with lower costs. Now need to get that cost of borrowing down and to start growing again. I think they have done a tough job well over the last 3 years. A couple of interesting posts on lemonfool by Carcosa- one of which highlights the real positive position of ATRs in the current market. Worth a read

[harrogate] 25/4/2023 13:47

Things have changed a bit since those days of course but what we do know is that Jeff is aligned with us so he will get the best deal for us all. Personally I think they will need to do a few things first which might take a while. Refinance the bonds, get some more aircraft leased out, get the final unleased plane sold or leased and get some of the cash in from those debtor loans. I do agree that this is not a price to sell at

[fishbournetrader] 25/4/2023 13:33

The board turned down a bid which must have been well in excess of 300p in 2019. They thought they could get a better offer.
Would be ironic if they accepted 160p - 180p now.

[riverman77] 25/4/2023 11:10

I would find it hard to understand why they wouldn't get a bid at some point - even at a 40% premium to current share price, the buyer would be able to get a bunch of aircraft at a 30% discount to market value.