Avation Share Discussion Threads

[a_game] 26/10/2021 08:13

Well having flown on packed flights recently, aviation appears to be largely back to normal from what I saw. The current share price is an absolute steal, I expect significant returns from this level within the next year.

[ccrowth26] 23/10/2021 09:32

I believe it is a good time now as things are picking up steadily

[russman] 19/10/2021 09:39

Jeff states "portfolio management purposes". This sale has insignificant effect on the AVAPs fleet portfolio. What Jeff means is, it was a good offer for the quality jet. Still in liquidation mode.

[shaker44] 19/10/2021 08:11

Promoted by ST in IC today. Maybe only because he promoted it in May 20 (during covid) as a strong but at 130 with target of 270p.
Anyone dipping their toes in yet? Feels a tad early to me. ST says Taiwan and Vietnam have dealt well with covid. Arguable. But not much activity yet with Eva or Vietjet.

[harrogate] 19/10/2021 08:11

Tipped today

[russman] 14/10/2021 08:06

Might be an opportune moment to ask Richard if the statutory Auditor has signed off AVAP Annual Report yet or there are still "bones of contention".

[melloteam] 11/10/2021 17:06

Just to let shareholders and prospective investors know that Crimson Tide, On The Market, NetScientific plc, Avation and Trinity Exploration and Production plc (TRIN) will be presenting at the Mello Results Round-Up webinar event on Thursday 14th October at 1:00pm-5:30pm. There will be over 300 investors attending and these are very popular shows with company presentations, fund manager and investor interviews, and panel sessions. Tickets are free, click here to register:


The full programme is as follows:
1.00 pm Welcome & Company presentation by Avation plc
1.35 pm Results Review Part 1 with Mark Simpson
1.50 pm Company presentation by On The Market
2.20 pm Spreadbetting Q&A with Spreadex
3.00 pm Company presentation by NetScientific plc
3.40 pm Book Reviews with Roger Lawson from ShareSoc and Andrew Latto of FundHunter
4.00 pm Company presentation by Crimson Tide
4.30 pm David interviews Steve Clapham
4.45 pm Results Review Part 2 with Richard Crow
5.00 pm Company presentation by Trinity Exploration & Production

[sharesoc] 07/10/2021 15:03

We are hosting a webinar with Avation on the 13th October, which may be of interest to shareholders and potential investors. Richard Wolanski – Finance Director, will be presenting:

[russman] 02/10/2021 08:19

We can guess AVAPs historic average lease rate across their fleet.
I disagree with AVAPs calc of their yr-end WACC. (def risen considerably).
Their average lease rate (market rate for new leases) needs to rise significantly.

[harrogate] 01/10/2021 10:59

I listened to the call yesterday and progress is good but quite a few things still to do short term. Actually get the cash from Virgin Australia and PAL as per what we hope and place a few planes not being utilised. Those things will have a great impact on liquidity and should enable debt to be repaid. Bonds at 83c would be a good place to start. Not a slam dunk yet but fingers crossed

[a_game] 01/10/2021 10:50

"No growth unless leasing rates rise significantly."

Which they will do as there will be a global aircraft shortage. It's obvious there will be - huge numbers of aircraft went to the graveyard last year. Production lines got suspended etc.

[russman] 01/10/2021 06:13

AVAP is a leasing company.
It makes a profit when leasing rates are lower than its WACC.
The plus/minus/default on its fleet is a sideshow.
The WACC is set unless AVAP buy back some bonds.
No growth unless leasing rates rise significantly.

[a_game] 30/9/2021 11:54

Agree, I think aircraft value will rocket soon. Same has happened for used car industry.

[bdbd11] 30/9/2021 11:14

avap has always been under the radar. I've been holding and trading for about 15 years. I remember many years ago when Jeff was buying shares for cash - at the hundreds of thousands of pounds level - at I think around the 80p mark: it was ignored for days. Not by me, I went very overweight and at one stage this was by far my biggest holding. If the aviation industry goes the same way as eg the energy industry and the containership market, then there could well be a shortage of aircraft worldwide, which will see the NAV balloon.

[a_game] 30/9/2021 09:33

An expected & stable picture for FY21. In the very capable hands of management. Sp sitting significantly below current NAV of £1.60+ which will likely get significantly bumped in 2022. The green light to carry on accumulating at these bargain levels!

Incredible just how under the radar AVAP is.

[a_game] 26/9/2021 16:36

they may well refinance the bonds as global aviation gets back into gear

[russman] 24/9/2021 06:12

AVAP is a lessor.
AVAP's WACC is uncompetitive at the moment; principally due to the Bond financing.
Jeff has made bad mistakes with timing.
1) the bond
3) bulking up jet purchases to use the bond financing.
A dangerous gamble to lease long & borrow short.

[harrogate] 21/9/2021 10:07

Yes thought we might have had a general boost from the more positive aviation news in the last few days

[a_game] 21/9/2021 09:41

And here we go, with US travel now opening back up, worldwide aviation really is getting going.

There may be somewhat of a shortage of aircraft in the coming years. Plenty of older aircraft were decommissioned during the pandemic and new aircraft orders cancelled. Where are the seats going to come from? Takes time to make new aircraft. Lease rates may well be very favourable in the medium term.

Can't imagine this share price is going to hang around long now.

[a_game] 16/9/2021 22:09

That's still pretty much historic lows. Remember last year the oil price went negative!

[quepassa] 16/9/2021 08:09

Soaring aviation fuel prices will dampen incipient recovery in global aviation.

Jet Fuel Prices per gallon:

September 2020 $1.00
September 2021 $1.90




ALL IMO. DYOR,
QP

[a_game] 13/9/2021 11:26

No one has missed the boat yet, talking as someone who purchased originally in the 200s, then a lot more in 90s and more very recently just over 100. The PAL news derisked this hugely. Jeff is a great operator and I'm confident they'll get back to good times. He has managed this very well so far through the crisis and they're through the worst now imo.

Global aviation has really picked back up, UK lagging well behind everyone else, US internal flights now higher than pre-pandemic.

[casholaa] 07/9/2021 20:32

Sounds like people have missed the boat, or is that plane hehehe

*Amedeo did something similar I think back in May.

[harrogate] 07/9/2021 17:48

Yes Jeff should have known there was going to be a global pandemic for the first time on over 100 years - what an idiot he is !!

[russman] 07/9/2021 17:36

The ATRs are peanuts in the balance sheet.
Jeff bulked up with bigger jets at just the wrong moment.
Timing is everything in leasing.