Bank of Mexico Chief: Recent Big Rate Moves Don't Set Precedent--2nd Update
08 July 2016 - 11:04PM
Dow Jones News
By Juan Montes and Anthony Harrup
MEXICO CITY -- Mexico's central bank surprised investors in late
June by raising interest rates by a half a percentage point,
matching a similar move in February and prompting many to speculate
that this aggressive stance could be the norm to support a weak and
volatile peso.
But AgustÃn Carstens, the Bank of Mexico chief, said the bank's
goal is where it has always been since it became autonomous from
the government in the 1990s: to maintain the purchasing power of
the Mexican peso by keeping a tight rein on inflation.
"The fact that our last two rate moves were of 50 basis points
in no way sets a precedent that from now on if there's a need to
make an adjustment it will be 50 basis points," Mr. Carstens said
in an interview on Friday with The Wall Street Journal at the
central bank's headquarters.
The peso, the world's eighth most-traded currency with a daily
volume of $135 billion, has been one of the emerging-market
currencies that have depreciated the most against the U.S. dollar
since the beginning of the year, losing around 7%. It hit a record
low two weeks ago of around 19.50 pesos to the dollar. The peso has
recovered some ground since.
As an easily traded currency often used as a proxy amid global
economic and political uncertainty, the peso has been hard hit this
year by concerns over the U.S. Federal Reserve's next interest-rate
move, China's economy, and more recently, Britain's vote to leave
the European Union.
Mr. Carstens acknowledged the central bank had to act in recent
months to send a clear signal that authorities are worried a weak
peso would end up affecting consumer prices, but made it clear the
bank's goal isn't to drive the exchange rate. "Some say the Bank of
Mexico has somehow gone from inflation-targeting to exchange-rate
targeting. That is completely false," he said.
Some analysts even speculated that beyond a "magic threshold" of
19 or 20 pesos per dollar, the bank would raise rates or even make
discretionary interventions in the exchange market selling dollars
-- a rare action for one of the most orthodox central banks in
Latin America. The bank did that in February, selling $2
billion.
"I can say it without any doubt: a regime of that nature
[seeking exchange rate targets] has not even crossed our minds,"
Mr. Carstens said.
Inflation is still below the central bank's 3% target, but the
central-bank chief said the bank acted bluntly because the weaker
peso is already having an impact on certain food and imported
goods, and it wants to keep that from contaminating other prices
such as services.
"The bank had to send a clear signal that we're worried about
the impact of a weak peso on prices," Mr. Carstens said. "We have
to start attacking these early pressures."
Given the close economic links between U.S. and Mexico -- both
countries trade $1 million in goods every minute -- the Bank of
Mexico matched the Fed's rate increase last December to keep local
yields attractive and avoid further pressure on the peso. But Mr.
Carstens said the bank's stance won't necessarily be linked to what
the Fed does.
"There are a lot of factors that affect the Fed and the Bank of
Mexico differently. ... A clear case was the Brexit: It generated a
flight to quality that strengthened the dollar, lowered inflation
expectations in the U.S. and gave the Fed more room to normalize
[monetary policy]. In Mexico, we had the opposite effect," he
said.
For Mr. Carstens, keeping inflation low is critical for Mexico
and other emerging markets to preserve economic stability in a
distressed world that is struggling to return to steady growth
rates after the 2008 financial crisis.
"The tunnel has been much longer than expected or desired, and
the vote of Britain to leave the EU has complicated the situation
even more," said Mr. Carstens, who also chairs the policy advisory
committee of the International Monetary Fund and the Global Economy
Meeting at the Bank for International Settlements. "There is still
a lot of uncertainty out there."
But Mr. Carstens seemed optimistic that negotiations between
Britain and the EU will be constructive, and seek to minimize the
impact of Brexit on the world economy.
He praised his colleagues at the Bank of England for having
prepared enough liquidity measures in the event of a Brexit shock.
"Until now, incidents have been minor," he said.
Some observers have wondered if the world's main central banks
could intervene in a more coordinated way to shore up the global
financial system. Mr. Carstens seemed skeptical.
"There is a lot of dialogue among the different central banks."
he said. "But it's difficult to think of additional cooperation,
for example regarding monetary policy, because the different
countries confront very different economic cycles. Each looks to
its main obligations."
Write to Juan Montes at juan.montes@wsj.com and Anthony Harrup
at anthony.harrup@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 08, 2016 17:49 ET (21:49 GMT)
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