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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Pantheon Resources Plc LSE:PANR London Ordinary Share GB00B125SX82 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  1.35 1.73% 79.20 5,757,855 16:35:25
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
78.75 79.15 81.00 76.80 81.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 0.09 -21.71 -3.39 599
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
17:56:03 O 355,229 78.448 GBX

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06/12/202221:48Pantheon Resources3,120
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16/11/202215:32Pantheon Resources - Undervalued Austin Chalks play for 20101,550

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Posted at 06/12/2022 08:20 by Pantheon Resources Daily Update
Pantheon Resources Plc is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker PANR. The last closing price for Pantheon Resources was 77.85p.
Pantheon Resources Plc has a 4 week average price of 67.50p and a 12 week average price of 67.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 152.80p while the 1 year low share price is currently 66.10p.
There are currently 756,824,531 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 5,050,015 shares. The market capitalisation of Pantheon Resources Plc is £599,405,028.55.
Posted at 06/12/2022 09:34 by huntman
Morning all.

While we all continue to enjoy the PANR show with a new dramatic episode dropping every other day, it is interesting to take a step back and review the more recent factual events in the round.

1. Investor meetings: We learnt last week (from 8750Capital - an institutional investor) Jay was in London. I doubt he was Christmas shopping or doing a round of institutional meetings to tell them things were not looking good. If it was not to impart bad news why was he here? His trip speaks volumes. We also learnt that the cost per barrel out of the ground was $20. The investor was impressed and will be significantly increasing his position as a result.

2. Proven oil flow: We know from the RNS on 25 October that they were getting oil cuts of 8%-12% on thousands of barrels a day with only 10% frac fluid recovered. Simple maths suggests that even at this very preliminary stage this equates to a minimum of 300 barrels a day of oil, at $80 oil price and $20 cost that equates to $6.5m free cashflow per annum for this well alone.

3. Valuation: A lot has been made of the lease purchase announced on 10 November with Josh Young writing a truly remarkable piece extrapolating this and valuing Pantheon at $5.6 million. We know Josh is in the bear cartel and can take this with a pinch of salt, but my parallel take is this: I can today buy an acre of land today in the UK at approx. £10k, If I get planning permission for 5 family homes the land alone (before construction) will be worth around £1m – a 100 times return, I’m simple placing a bet that one day I will get planning. PANR are simply placing an extremely educated ($200m of proprietary 3D seismic) bet that they will get oil.

4. Bear raid. Whilst undoubtedly irritating and launched with a co-ordinated fanfare of half truths and wild accusations, this was underpinned solely by a high profile reputation and not a single fact. The share price has been remarkably resilient, only 10% below where it was on 11th before this episode commenced. The purpose of a bear raid is to create fear, shareholder capitulation and to suck in more shorters, creating a self reinforcing cycle of price depreciation. This has not happened. Bear raid? More like a teddy bear picnic to me.

5. The flare. The one indisputable fact that no-one can ignore. The gas flare proves that oil is flowing, how much we do not know, but this is no duster. Coupled with the huge oil tanker in the foreground this picture tells a thousand words.

To my mind there are just 3 possible outcomes here – first non-commercial flow - but on the basis they achieved 100 barrels a day from a single 6 foot frac on the previous drill (and the flare) this seems unlikely. Second more engineering/executional issues that introduce further delay into the project – this would be unfortunate but I can live with postponed gratification. Third, decent initial flow rates of 750 barrels/day. This would trigger an acute teddy bear squeeze and a truly spectacular price appreciation.

The shorts are betting on a 100% profit, the longs on a 1,000% gain. How do you fancy your odds?

Posted at 01/12/2022 09:40 by hiddendepths
The problem is that people have been trying to get these shorters for many years with virtually no success. They have driven some decent companies into bankruptcy because fake stories and a trashed share price have made fund-raising nearly impossible for some. There will be literally scores of companies attacked this year with these nefarious practices, some just about legal, others way beyond the limit. PANR is just the latest of these attacks - it looks to me as though the nastiest shorters have now gone from here and are doubtless quietly building short positions in another victim prior to the vitriolic attacks aimed at smashing the share price.

You are just one of literally thousands who have reported these goings on to the FCA and other bodies Rabito. It might make you feel better about it but don't expect any results.

Posted at 26/11/2022 12:09 by helpfull
Cor blimey,guv!

It's nice to know shareholders are concerned for the "shorts" so much so that they ruminate. Brings a warm feeling to the heart. Not as if they are trying to ramp like hell whilst retaining a little dignity. Hypocrite,moi?

In the same spirit: what if everything doesn't go well? How will the share price responds when 1000's of "sure things" and "no brainers" want to dump there loads on the day of a poor RNS? How will the share price respond with 20 million or 50 million shares flying out the door? And add to that an increased short position because that would be the time to double down. Do shareholders know the risk they are taking or is that reserved only for shorters?

Brought to you by "Trust Helpfull at your peril. Head over to the PANR board where he trolls the share day and night. He's absolute slime" and FifthElementInvesting, the epitome of a troll.

Be careful.

Posted at 25/11/2022 18:47 by ringsing1
Hello all.

Genuine question. We all know the flow results can swing either way.

What I am curious about is the share price trajectory on a good flow report,
and I will explain why.

As I understand it, there are now 30-50m shares on loan to A LOT of short sellers. Not a few big ones with large positions, but a lot of smaller ones !!!

Now let’s say a great result is announced. Presumably this small army of short sellers will attempt to buy back to cover their exposure to even further increasing SP’s. That means buy-orders to the tune of 30-50m shares. But this is likely to happen at the same time as large buyers wanting to buy in big dollops now that the results de-risks the PANR share. There will be institutional investors among those, easily looking for 10s of millions of shares…

So in my book, it’s not beyond possibility that there could be buy orders for say 100m shares on a good result. How will that play out on a share that some days struggle to hit 1m traded shares on a single day ?? Or let’s say we were to squeeze through 20m shares a day, so it would take 5 days of relentless share buying to fill all buy-orders. Where the hxll would all those shares come from ? What is the math behind such a squeeze ? How high can it
go ???

As mentioned, I am perfectly aware the results may not be positive. I’m just ruminating over the financial risks the short sellers are exposing themselves to here.

Posted at 24/11/2022 11:07 by just one more try
Got to love "Helpfull" post 08:36 - 819 of 834

He is clearly short selling himself, despite this he claims

"Keep an eye on the share price chart. The shorters have disappeared and yet the share price continues to fall. Why? The death cross is still in play, the long term upward trendline is smashed. Is that another descending continuation rectangle? 40p target".

The evidence from the FCA...
https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B125SX82/

The short from MW Domino Management LLC of about 5 million shares is still there.

One can either rely on evidence or a Trumpian figure, who’s information suit his own purposes - or not.

Whilst writing, the flow test is not a guaranteed success (due very soon), - just very likely to succeed.

Posted at 21/11/2022 14:21 by antique7879
Olderwiser - Great post!

I have always considered an Oil E&P company, such as PANR/PTHRF, an intellectual property business and my attributes of good value for this business are the people (management team/consultants/ operations crew) & the target size of the in-situ value of recoverable oil resources, which in Pantheon resources case is in excess of 2 billion barrels of oil, using a 10% recovery factor.

I believe the business/development plan is grounded in reality. For instance, using multi-stage fracking technology on the conventional, albeit tight sands of the PANR acreage on North Alaska and starting the development plan from the existing infrastructure (gravel pads near the Dalton highway) and proceeding west with the development plan makes sound financial sense. The recent exploration, appraisal and production tests have aimed to answer unanswered questions to optimise value for the company.

The current Alkaid-2 well production test will help address the issue of commerciality of the Alkaid reservoir.

For those interested, this paper helps improve understanding of the flowback period and in particular, proppant flowback production modelling.

hTTps://www.researchgate.net/profile/Suat-Bagci/publication/335884667_Flowback_Production_Optimization_for_Choke_Size_Management_Strategies_in_Unconventional_Wells/links/5d9d7b05458515c1d3a17376/Flowback-Production-Optimization-for-Choke-Size-Management-Strategies-in-Unconventional-Wells.pdf?origin=publication_detail

The future (with or without a farminee) Talitha & Theta West well drills / flow tests / production tests should unlock more information of the potential commerciality of the SMD and Basin Floor Fan reservoirs.

I believe this could take another 18 to 24 months. I’m happy with the financial risk and am prepared to ‘suffer’ through some share price volatility to get from here to the ‘promised land’ (sale of the company).

Despite the current state of the global economy and current bear market rally, I believe that the oil and gas commodity sector has good absolute value (beta). I believe that there continues to be underinvestment in oil and gas exploration, which has to change to meet the continued reliance on fossil fuels for another 25 years. Among the O&G E&P companies, I rate PANR as showing excellent relative value (alpha). You buy good stock when they are on sale and PANR shares are on sale now. I believe that the work done by Great Bear and more recently by the PANR/PTHRF team has shifted the pendulum from the POSSIBILITY of success to the PROBABILITY of success. I note Mr. Rosenthal, PANR’s technical director, stated in one of the Q&A sessions of the investor presentation in 2021 that the probability of commercial success was between 60 and 70%.

I remain invested for the reasons outlined in my post. This, however, represents my opinion. As always, please do your own due diligence.

Posted at 16/11/2022 16:19 by helpfull
Cor blimey, guv!

The naive investor, also known as the mug punter, thinks the fall in the share price is over. Everyone is full of speculation but nobody has given a definitive reason for the fall. They didn't see it coming.

The share price has fallen from 140p, not 86p. Shorters are the flavour of the month to blame.. Not profit takers such as the millions of shares sold by the directors at 123p. Some might say directors selling is the ultimate "short". Although when it happened many who were justifying the director action are now condemning the selling by others.

The market is allowing the mug punter, presently, to buy "bargain" shares. When that money dries up the share price retreat will continue. Down to 40p. There is still much froth in the valuation of the company and much time for things to go wrong.

Be careful.

Posted at 16/11/2022 09:54 by roddyb
MW operate well, they make clear their holdings and conflicts prior to releasing their ropey research. They did this with Burford, the proof of their research was found wanting and generally discredited, however, the share price never recovered.

They identified NMC as a fraud, - they turned out to be right.

They jumped on Sino Forest - they turned out to be right.

By the time that the market jumps on the research, they are out. Often citing a predicted level of future share price and hopping off well before.

I believe in PANR but I have folded with a view to re-purchasing my previous ownership after they have had their way. The game will be up on the next RNS but bear in mind that we rarely have a simple drilling success, we usually get good news laced with bad.

Posted at 14/11/2022 18:18 by olderwiser2
Wow front row seats to a co ordinated short attack, involving discredited actors it appears
hTTps://ffj-online.org/2019/11/04/fraser-perring-chronicles-of-deceit-part-one/
At this point what is known is shorters have borrowed and sold millions of PANR shares, this very selling drives the price down.
hTTps://archive.ph/ZYSuY
To repay these and close their shorts they have to re buy all the shares they borrowed and sold.
What chance that these shorters are willing to risk being exposed when the flow results from Alkaid 2 are released, very little IMO. The probability of success at Alkaid 2 is simply to high to take that risk on, which means the smart shorts will be out before this news comes out.
Ergo the current fear inducing strategy, to go public with the risk the shorts themselves pose to PANR share price, and as a bonus induce additional shorts to buy into the blood in the water frenzy they have care fully groomed and manufactured.
Given the news date is unpredictable there will be urgency to close out, it would not surprise at all to find the big fish have already begun to buy and close out in this artificial dip, leaving the rest to suffer the short squeeze to come.

Posted at 14/11/2022 10:29 by marto1000
Short Selling SituationPANR is a soft target for short selling especially for investors who don't specialise in the energy sector and especially for a company whose track record, pre-Alaskan acquisition was not good. Oil company valuations on emerging producers are based on its resources – not earnings or cashflow – its about Net Present Value of existing resources. In simple terms Pantheon has discovered a very large resource (in the billions of barrels) that needs to be tested for commerciality which is all normal practice in any discovery – AND it is doing this now. PANR team is genuinely very excited and extremely enthusiastic about what it has discovered to date. There has been over $300m spent on the project over more than a decade which is a lot of data in which to formulate an informed view by the highly experienced board and management – look at their CV's.The project area has been endorsed by the Alaskan Govt which are experts in the petroleum industry. It endorsed the project when it issued Pantheon two petroleum units across the Talitha and Alkaid oil accumulations. The govt would not issue these units unless it believed the units were productive. Pantheon has also engaged several independent global experts that have evaluated the area and confirmed its potential. These are just plain facts.PANR has been very clear that until the project area has demonstrated commercial flow rates or a strong technical basis for such flows – the speculative component will remain high which is why the valuation of the company is deeply discounted versus the potential NPV of the discovered resources. Oil exploration is a risky business and not all projects are successful but PANR'S team has had more success than failure in this area however short sellers just want the bad news. Operating in Alaska is challenging both logistically and geologically. PANR is dealing with a new geological play type that it knows holds major oil accumulations in conventional oil reservoirs. Like all new play types – there is a bit of learning involved and investors need to be patient. The oil reservoirs are tight and need stimulation to produce commercial rates in arctic conditions where flow rates need to be high. Optimising stimulating techniques for conventional reservoirs will take time and several reservoirs will need to be tested. At times the ANS does not have all the required tools needed to optimise production hence PANR needs to compromise or wait for the specific equipment which again takes time. A commercial oil flow rate should convincingly prove commerciality and one would expect these rates will only improve as the PANR team and its expert consultants which include the largest oil services companies in the world, optimise the production design as more zones are tested.
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