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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Pantheon Resources Plc LSE:PANR London Ordinary Share GB00B125SX82 ORD 1P
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  0.00 0.0% 20.55 183,007 12:02:06
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Oil & Gas Producers 0.72 16.75 10.54 1.9 103
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
12:19:10 O 24,037 20.749 GBX

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DateSubject
05/8/2020
09:20
Pantheon Resources Daily Update: Pantheon Resources Plc is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker PANR. The last closing price for Pantheon Resources was 20.55p.
Pantheon Resources Plc has a 4 week average price of 15.05p and a 12 week average price of 12.35p.
The 1 year high share price is 24p while the 1 year low share price is currently 6.80p.
There are currently 502,758,713 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 1,740,260 shares. The market capitalisation of Pantheon Resources Plc is £103,316,915.52.
22/7/2020
23:53
tewkesbury: PANR AIM quoted oil and gas exploration company with 89.2% - 100% working interests in several projects on the Alaskan North Slope (covering c.200,000 gross acres, covered by c.1,000 square miles of proprietary 3D seismic) and 58% - 100% working interests in projects in Polk & Tyler Counties, East Texas. PANR's stated objective is to create material value for its stakeholders through oil exploration, appraisal and development activities in high impact, highly prospective assets, in the USA; a highly established region for energy production with infrastructure, skilled personnel and low sovereign risk. All operations are onshore USA, with drilling costs materially below that of offshore wells. 1) ALASKAN NORTH SLOPE - Talitha Project: - Resource Upgrade, 23/3/2020: hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/pantheon-resources-PANR/share-news/Pantheon-Resources-PLC-Upgraded-resource-estimates/82059131 Resource upgrade following receipt and reprocessing of previously unmerged 3D seismic data in H2 2019. This work necessitated changes to the descriptions/nomenclature of the Talitha and Theta/Theta West projects. - Talitha project: Three different horizons which are all mutually exclusive geological formations with different reservoir trap geometries, qualities and risk profiles. All of these formations have been penetrated by an existing well and following more detailed petrophysical analysis have been confirmed as oil bearing. -- 'Shelf Margin Deltaic': Shallowest of these horizons, Brookian age reservoir, estimated to contain 1.8 billion barrels of oil in place (OIP) and a P50 Technically Recoverable Resource of 483 million barrels of oil (MMBO). Previous estimates for all three zones combined were 2.6 billion barrels OIP and 463 - 508 MMBO P50 Technically Recoverable Resource for the entire Talitha project. Today's estimates are significantly higher than pre-analysis expectation. The Company has modelled two phased development plan for this zone, exploiting 376 MMBO of this resource, and using the WTI current forward price curve, yields a potential NPV10 of over US$2 billion, an NPV per barrel of $5.75 and an Internal Rate of Return of 55%. This zone has excellent reservoir qualities. Pantheon also completed Monte Carlo simulation over the 'Shelf Margin Deltaic' horizon within Talitha, which estimates the following Probabilistic Resource Potential outcomes: ---- Oil in Place -- Resource Potential P90: 1.3 Billion BO, 316 MMBO P50: 1.8 Billion BO, 483 MMBO P10: 2.6 Billion BO, 745 MMBO PMean: 1.9 Billion BO, 511 MMBO Plus two other horizons that offer significant potential to PANR. Analysis is not yet complete on these and will be announced to the market once that work has concluded: -- 'Slope Fan System' (Brookian). -- 'Kuparuk Formation'. All of the zones analysed within the Talitha complex have productive analogues in close proximity to the project area, providing valuable data as to potential reserves and productive capacity. - Jay Cheatham (CEO) (23/3/20) stated: "...our projects are emerging in quality, size and scale exceeding what we ever imagined. Our projects are onshore, close to infrastructure, conventional, in an area of low royalties with minimal sovereign risk. They have size and scale that we believe is material for almost any company. This all points to a breakeven oil price that our analysis suggests is below most other oil projects around the world. There is a structural adjustment taking place in the oil industry as companies are moving back to the lower cost, high return conventional business and we believe we are well placed in this regard. These assets have the potential to produce for a generation or more, so it's the long term, not the short term oil price that is most important for us. The potential of Talitha combined with our Greater Alkaid oil accumulation and the Theta West and Leonis projects give us a world class portfolio." 2) ALASKAN NORTH SLOPE - Greater Alkaid Project: - Expert Report, 23/1/2020: hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/pantheon-resources-PANR/share-news/Pantheon-Resources-PLC-Resource-Update/81582434 Independent Expert Report and Resource Statement from the International Petroleum Consultants Lee Keeling & Associates, on PANR's 100% owned 'Greater Alkaid' Project. - 76.5 MMBO Contingent Resource (recoverable). - $595 million NPV10 based on modelled 44 wells, + c.70 MMBO Phase 1 field development over 20 year term at an oil price of $55 held flat. - $8.50 NPV10 per barrel of oil. - Field peak flow rate 30,000 BOPD. - Individual well EUR (estimated ultimate recovery) of 2.25 MMBO per well for 24 wells. - LKA report supports PANR's view that Alkaid + Phecda is one continuous accumulation, now called 'Greater Alkaid'. - Located underneath and adjacent to the Dalton Highway & Trans-Alaska Pipeline (TAPS). - Estimate comprises Contingent Resource only - does not include Prospective Resource. - In addition to providing a Contingent Resource estimate of 76.5 million barrels of oil, LKA modelled a Phase 1 field development, based upon 24 wells at 2.25 MMBO per well, and a further 20 wells with the EUR risked at 50%, equating to 1.125 MMBO per well. Their 20-year model estimates an NPV10 of $595 million after production of 70 MMBO, with an estimated NPV10 of $8.50 per barrel of oil. Modelled peak field flow rates are 30,000 BOPD. Greater Alkaid's beneficial location immediately underneath and adjacent to road and pipeline infrastructure offers significant time and cost advantages over other projects on the North Slope of Alaska. Having a large onshore oilfield in this location will allow a phased development approach minimising upfront capex and producing early cashflow to fund future development. - Jay Cheatham (CEO) (23/1/2020) commented: "The report by LKA is a fantastic result for Pantheon and underpins management's belief that we have a major discovery in Alaska along the Dalton Highway and Trans Alaska Pipeline. Greater Alkaid has the potential to offer tremendous economic returns, estimated in the report at NPV10 of $595 million for Phase 1 and an NPV10 of $8.50 per barrel of oil. I remind shareholders that a Contingent Resource (recoverable) is a higher classification of resource compared to the Prospective or 'Technically Recoverable Resource' previously provided by the Company, so 76.5 million barrels of Contingent Resource is something we are very proud of. I am confident that with additional drilling our Contingent Resources could increase. I am reminded of Prudhoe Bay where the ultimate recovery (EUR) has over time greatly exceeded original estimates of oil in place (OOIP) for the field. Good oil fields get bigger and better over time. The Independent Experts Report will enhance our farmout efforts and bodes well for our other projects where we also intend to undertake an in depth and independent assessment. This is the first time Pantheon has undertaken an independent expert report and is planning to provide other such reports in the future." 3) ALASKAN NORTH SLOPE - Theta West and Leonis: - PANR, 20/3/2020: - c.28,000 acres of new leases acquired. - Initial analysis undertaken by eSeis using PANR's 3D seismic indicates potential to contain more than 1 billion barrels of oil in place ("OIP"). - Acreage comprises 2 major project areas named 'Theta West' and 'Leonis', both of which offer potential for further increases to PANR's initial estimates of OIP as team continues to assess these projects. -- Further analysis 'highly encouraging' and now clear that Theta West appears substantially larger than originally estimated, albeit analysis is not yet complete. 4) FARM OUT AND DRILLING: Data room opened, farm-out interest, with view to drilling in 2020 and rapid production thereafter. 3) TEXAS: In East Texas, PANR has working interests in several conventional prospects in Tyler & Polk Counties, in an area of abundant regional infrastructure. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
07/7/2020
07:40
scot126: Dear All - this post is titled "Getting our ducks in a row." 1) 27p strike price. To my mind this a very powerful signal to shareholders and the wider market - even in the short term. The stock has got to, in effect, double from the present level before *any* of these options are worth a penny. I'd urge you all to have a look at the options packages of other management teams in companies in which you are a shareholder. That 27p strike price is a good old stretch from the share price on the date the package is being announced to the market. I congratulate the non-exec directors on designing a scheme which will *only* reward the executive team if the share price *DOUBLES* from today's share price And I say to fellow shareholders - once again the BoD is *explicitly* aligning itself with all of us private shareholders. What clearer message do we require in terms of remuneration than the stretched conditions which apply to these options? 2) Ok, point 1) above is the headline but I reckon the timing is even more illuminating and why I named this submission the "Getting our ducks in a row" post. Look at the condition attached to the vesting of the second half of the options - on the spudding of the next well on the Alaskan acreage. Hmmmm. Does this portray a management team which has little confidence in the Alaskan assets? Does it portray a management team which doesn't believe in the data contained in the (virtual) data room, which is shortly going to be supplemented by management's volumetric upgrade of its Talitha (Kuparuk) asset? Does this portray a management team's lack of confidence that the parties they're negotiating with in the farm out process are *not* capable of partnering with PANR to further drill, delineate and develop PANR's Alaskan assets? I put it to the thread that the timing of this RNS is actually really quite interesting. Important to look at motivations when dealing with our fellow human beings!! Notwithstanding the trailing of this options scheme in the latest AR, what pressure might the BoD have faced concerning the exercise price once the Talitha (Kuparuk) upgrade is published? What might the exercise price have had to be once it is announced a farm out has been secured that leads to drilling activity shortly in Greater Alkaid (PANR's first producing well in Alaska?) or the first PANR well to be drilled in Talitha? The company is sending the strongest possible signal here. If they deliver a doubling in share price (minimum) and a farm out which leads to drilling in Alaska then they will deserve each and every one of those options. And we will have no excuse in not heeding the signal being sent today. GLA
07/7/2020
07:05
pro_s2009: Share options RNS today....exercise price 27p https://www.investegate.co.uk/pantheon-resources--panr-/rns/issuance-of-share-options-to-directors-and-staff/202007070700061860S/ ............... Phillip Gobe , Chairman stated: "I am pleased to implement our long-awaited staff share option scheme which includes each and every one of our 16 employees and consultants. I am very proud of our team's fantastic achievements over the past 18 months and it was of great importance to me that we established this scheme to allow them to benefit from future success. "Astute shareholders will note the 27p exercise price is a huge premium to the current share price, meaning that shareholders will enjoy a c.90% share price uplift before these share options have any value to our staff at all. The pricing is a clear motivator for significant future achievement. Additionally, half of the share options will only vest upon the spudding of the next Alaskan well, aligning the interests of all staff with those of shareholders, and providing motivation and urgency to achieve drilling as soon as possible. We believe our acreage has tremendous potential for value creation and our share option scheme allows staff to benefit from this, but crucially, only after shareholders." ................... .
11/6/2020
06:15
darcon: Final section of the March webinar (Q&A and summing-up): Justin [01:30:24]: "One last question and it's an important one is the team. We've been very fortunate to have some very skilled and very experienced people in this team. One of whom is not on this call today. And that's Phillip Gove our chairman. Phillip ran Prudhoe Bay for Arco who was the joint venture partner with BP back in the day. So we've got a huge wealth of experience in Alaska. Philip also sits on the board of Pioneer Natural Resources, the biggest Permian player. And he's also recently been appointed as the Chief Executive Officer of a company called Pro Petro, who I believe Jay is, if not the biggest, one of the biggest providers of fracking services to the Permian basin. Jay [01:31:07]: "Yeah, they are the largest pumping provider in the Permian. Justin [01:31:11] "And Jay, despite being very fit and handsome yourself, Phillip and Bob, you know, above 50. So a question is do we have any succession planning in place or key man insurance? Was there any concerns? And if I can mention or perhaps have a go at answering that question first, Jay, what I would say is we're building a team, a very careful team so there is replication of services. We work very, very closely together. We have management meetings, in fact every single week with the whole board unless somebody can't attend. We do what we can to make sure there is a transferring of abilities and the knowledge, I guess a knowledge redundancy built in. Jay is there anything that you wanted to add to that? No, I really would just like to say that with a small team (and we had three of our five board members on this call and three of our five full time employees on this webinar), that we have incredible depth with a very, very small team and we do not intend, I've talked extensively with Michael about our operations and how we will operate and we're not going to build up a large operating group. We think we can do, can stay small and keep our overheads down even in an environment where we're producing hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil a day. Michael, would you like to comment on that? Michael [01:32:48] "I think that's well said. The right structure fit for purpose up here doesn't have to be a large group. I'm very excited about the depth we have and I'm very excited about the bolt-on depth that we have within reach. We have a great team that's helped us achieve the success of the Alkaid recently and I think that we're in a good spot to operate lean, ramp up to handle further operations with the consultants that have helped make us successful in the past. Justin [01:33:20]: "[...] The final question talks about our share price., It's an obvious question. Globally E&P companies as well as other companies have all been severely hammered in the equity market. And the question was, are we concerned about the share price? And look as management of a company of course we're concerned about the share price. Thankfully it hasn't been on huge volume. But I'd remind everybody to take a step back and just think about what you hear Is the story sound? Are the assets of good quality? We have no debt. We have a clean capital structure. We have strong supportive shareholders. This project is conventional. It's not unconventional. Remember that chart that Jay spent some time on comparing this project to other projects. Guyana, North sea and all across the US this is the lower end of all of those. Think about what's happening with Saudi and Russia. We saw Saudi two days before they announced they were going to ramp up production in fact, trying to agree with Russia production cuts because they want a higher oil price. And when the Russians didn't play ball, of course, that's when the [price] war started. We've got low royalty rates. We're in North America. Low sovereign risk. It's onshore, despite the fact that these being offshore [sized] targets, they're onshore. And that's one of the questions I wanted to mention to Bob in a second. And of course, we are expecting to see oil service rates, servicing costs, drop. Alaska is a longterm play, so we're exposed to longterm oil prices. Again, even if we did a farm out deal tomorrow and started drilling in the next 12 months, we may have two wells on production, but we've got hundreds or thousands of wells that can be drilled from this asset base. So it's about the longterm oil price. Justin [01:35:23]: "And I'll leave you with one comment that I picked up and bill Armstrong from Armstrong Oil and Gas on, the 25th of February this year, um, picked up a chunk of another company up there and he quoted, this is quote "the Nanashuk, which is the Brookian play on the North slope of Alaska is currently the world's hottest conventional onshore play." And we're positioned smack bang in that - the closest of all the companies to the available infrastructure, which is a fantastic advantage for us." Justin [01:35:51]: "Bob, (I promised I wanted to leave with you if I may) you've constantly flapped your arms around to me about, sort of shaking me about the size and scale of this thing and just why you're excited. We had a conversation in fact over the weekend about how it's evolved even better than you'd expected. I'm not talking about grandiose hyperbole numbers, but just what is giving you this great comfort as a geologist, as our chief technical director. What is giving you the real excitement about where we finding ourselves today despite the share price? Because it strikes me that it feels like we're in a parallel universe right now. Bob [01:36:29]: "Look what we've been talking about, I think the whole message of today has been that we have enormous traps with where we know we have a large volume of oil in place. We have the seismic data, we have the well data, we have all that information in place to say that this is real class. I mean it really is world class. These are targets that people are exploring for in the deep waters of West Africa, Guyana, that this is the scale that people are going for. And we already know in the projects that we are highlighting and high grading we already know we have oil in these targets. It's there. And not only that but like at Alkaid we've tested it. So I mean it's a unique situation in the world. I mean we've got high resource density. We've got these llarge accumulations. They're stacked on each other and we have underutilized facilities that are screaming for hydrocarbons. But that pipeline is a million barrels of spare capacity in it. There's nowhere in the world like that. As unique as the North slope is in [the] terms [that] Bill Armstrong [was] talking about, it's the number one onshore play in the world, which I agree with. We are unique, as Pantheon, in that play because of our proximity to the pipeline." Jay [01:38:41] "And Bob, I would just add all, all of the other players that have made exploration announcements of discoveries are going to have to spend hundreds of millions of dollars if not more, to get their first barrel of oil out and into that pipeline to generate cash flow. Bob [01:39:09]: "It's billions. I mean, Conoco [inaudible]. Armstrong, Repsol and Oil Search have talked about 2 to 5 billion to development. Everybody has to put these wells on horizontal longt-erm tests, fracture stimulation and we actually go out and our testing doing that and putting it on production immediate - if we had the capital. I mean we're just unique. I mean it's unique. So that's why, absolutely, hat's the reason why we're excited. Justin [01:39:57]: "Bob look, I'm conscious of the time. Thank you very, very much. Jay, Bob, Michael. II think we've done a pretty comprehensive presentation for everybody. We will be putting a copy of this onto our website so people can access it later on. Of course, we did our best. I did do my best to answer as many of those questions as possible. Anything people can contact me directly if they've got any other questions. But I think we should sign off. Thank you everybody. Unless anybody has anything else to say I think we can probably sign off for now." Jay [01:40:30]: "Thanks Justin. Goodbye everyone." Justin: "Thanks everybody."
30/5/2020
16:20
darcon: From a tax accounting perspective if PANR farm-out say 25% of GA and PANR are left with 75% of GA can PANR still set off its full 100% of back-costs in respect of that acreage or would the more usual tax accounting approach be for the farm-in JV partner to reimburse PANR for 25% of back-costs so that post-farmout PANR are left with 75% of back-costs and the new partner has 25% of back-costs to ultimately recoup before paying profits tax and consistent accounting treatment for each acre of the unit at the JV level? From a JV party's perspective each extra $ spent on the target JV acreage is better than being spent on PANR's acreage where the JV party doesn't hold a participation. From PANR's perspective the upfront cash is important to the extent that cash can be deployed (1) to generate a higher return for its shareholders in acreage where it still retains a higher % stake and presumably its geological expertise can increase the asset value more for PANR than if that cash were deployed on the JV's acreage; (2) diversifying project risk; and (3) covering ongoing corporate costs so PANR doesn't have to go cap in hand to its shareholders and knock its share price. When PANR talk about upfront cash I think it's very important that they also describe how that upfront cash will subsequently be deployed to generate more value for the shareholders. Merely getting a higher upfront cash amount isn't the real target here.
09/4/2020
08:14
scot126: Dear All - I don't know whether this news ought to set the hares running or not. hTTps://www.afr.com/street-talk/oil-search-offer-closes-with-excess-demand-book-message-20200408-p54i4k hTTps://www.afr.com/street-talk/oil-search-offer-closes-with-excess-demand-book-message-20200408-p54i4k Since a few of us have speculated that Oil Search (OSH AU) would be close to the top of our lists of likely JV partners, it's worth a bit of discussion I'd have thought? OK, here's what I understand about Oil Search. I'm delighted to be corrected on any point as this is an early pass and I need to do more work on OSH. - OSH has signalled a 1 year freeze on a large slug of their capex spend in Alaska next Winter. OSH and Repsol being 51:49 partners in Horseshoe/Pikka are *each* looking at approx $2.0 - $2.5bn further investment to get to first production. I couldn't help but notice that when announcing this 1 year hiatus to capex spend, OSH were at great pains to give a nod towards the Alaskan state government, noting how important their partnership with the government and local communities was and lots of other warm words. - It appears that a couple of OSH's PNG-based projects (partners are Exxon and Total) were looking to gain PNG government approval for expansion earlier this year and no agreement has been forthcoming. This had a negative effect on OSH's share price even before the POO collapse. With the proviso I need to gain a better understanding of OSH's debt on its balance sheet, it does look like liquidity isn't an immediate worry following this placement and underwritten rights issue. Now, I'm saying the following with my old broker hat on so make of that what you will. I *think* OSH was trading at c.AU$2.73 prior to the fund raise at $2.10. Two things occur to me on timing and pricing. OSH's fund raise was announced *after* PMO effectively walked away from 88E and thus Alaska as a region...that made me go hmmmmm. The second thing which stood out was that the $2.10 raise price was at a pretty steep discount to the prevailing price in the market that day, $2.73. OSH is a large cap in Oz and it's pretty rare for a large cap to offer such a discount to the prevailing price, albeit these are not normal times. It means, to my eyes, that either they were in more trouble than appeared to be the case and needed the dough quickly to shore themselves up (reasonable question to ask but market analysts don't appear to be voicing particular concerns on this front) or they wanted the liquidity to permit them to become opportunistic players in what *might be* a temporarily upside down world. So where does this leave my thinking? We all know that Greater Alkaid is "shovel ready" for post-winter season drilling this year. We suspect drilling and contractor costs will be reducing in the current macro climate. We know PANR has already advanced their Development Plan to the Alaskan regulators and have not received any objections. We know that the state government will be disappointed that Charlie-1 hasn't proven to be immediately successful. We know the TAPS shareholders and state government are, if not desperate, very keen indeed for light oil to enter the pipeline as it eases the "fluidity" of transfer (happy to have my clumsy term corrected here!) of the oil from ANS to Valdez. We know that first cashflow from Greater Alkaid could be, what, 3 months after the first horizontal production well is spudded roadside? We know placing Greater Alkaid into a Long Term Production Test allows for the final step in the "pyramid of certainty" to occur, moving from Contingent Resources to Reserves.....at which point a whole new world of financing opens up to the WI owners, especially when GA (and Talitha even more so) appears to offer low cost of production characteristics. Hmmm...... Davidblack - perhaps you would be kind enough to once again take us through your rationale for a potential partner to look at PANR because it offers a pathway to improved lending terms? As I recall, there appeared to be meaningful savings in lending costs? So where am I going with all this? I don't think I'm going out on a limb here by stating that many of us thought OSH was always a potential partner for PANR, agreed? Cultural and geographical fit (remember Justin Hondris and Mario Traviati are both Aussies and PANR has always had decent support from Singapore/Australia when undertaking fundraises) plus it would certainly help OSH's state government relations if it were seen to be furthering the path to *quick* new production on the ANS => much needed royalties for the state. We *know* that OSH has entered the dataroom process because in September an anecdote was relayed which saw some Asian/Aussie sellside O&G analysts on a tour of North America who, when they were in Alaska or Houston, bumpied into OSH managers who were in the US to meet with PANR.....or some such. Either which way, OSH will certainly have followed the recent RNS announcements from PANR. We know from the PANR presentation in late January that all dataroom participants, providing they'd signed the requisite NDAs, would be sent the Independent Expert Report on GA. OSH, like others, would have read the recent massive upgrade to Talitha. OSH would have noted from a recent RNS that at least one NOC has entered the dataroom process. And then there's the Charlie-1 news too, meaning PMO are knocked off the chess board. Plus, it would amaze me if all the dataroom parties didn't listen/view the recent Webinar. Perhaps worth keeping an eye on? There's excellent technical, O&G, financial and markets experience on this thread. Worth using our collective networks to sound out this theory? GLA
18/3/2020
01:07
responsible investor: I am hoping that PANR does not agree terms whilst there is so much turmoil. Management should wait until price of oil is about $50 and the PANR share price north of 20p. Maybe defer for 3-6 months?
05/3/2020
13:55
scot126: Stupidity (post #6063) - you deserve to be "jumped on" because it was Halliburton, not Exxon. Facts *do* matter, because the two companies are so very different. For one, investing capital in hydrocarbon assets is their bread and butter, has been for decades. For the other, an oil services company, investing their own capital in individual projects proved to be a blip, a fad perhaps dreamed up by some management consultant who has long since departed! In tougher times, a global edict reversed this strategy and regional Alaskan management has been rotated. None of us can help it if you cannot be bothered doing the reading required to keep up with this but I find your perpetual seeding of doubts, invariably running in the face of established facts, utterly facile. You are being laughed at for your lack of research, your lack of understanding of fundamentals, your inability to read a set of accounts....and yet you have the gall, the brass neck to continually pepper this thread with disinformation. You just make it up as you go along, Stupidity. Are you not embarrassed? Do you have no shame? Or does the mask of anonymity cloak you from the introspection that mature adults have normally achieved by your age which would see your face redden with embarrassment as countless folk belittle your ability to highlight a company's cash at hand, ffs? Even that could be forgiven but it's the arrogance of pushing on with your nefarious drivel which both bewilders and, yes, angers me. However, this example above serves as a perfect answer for rivin's excellent question, see post #6064. rivin - your question has being doing my head in since April '19! Why that date? Because along with others I did the work, the reading, the research, the analysis on the Alkaid flow test and digested its implications and applied that knowledge to my view of PANR, post the merger with GB. Subsequent events have only served to reinforce my initial feelings on PANR+GB. In fact who am I kidding, subsequent events have surpassed my most bullish scenarios for Alaska developed in April '19. So that's all good and well, why isn't the market waking up to this? There are loads of answers but there's one that is prime factor, of that I personally have no doubt: management credibility. Management credibility <=> geological success but operational failure in East Texas. No getting away from this. I think that a "normal" market would have seen the stock marked up nicely last week, and you could tell in the first hour the fundamentals wanted to exert themselves...but then came the tsunami of risk off selling/margin calls/'viral' capitulation by some LTHs (and some posters here) simply because the stock wasn't going up! What can I say about this? The usual stuff about if I thought management was dodgy I'd have been long gone and that Vision was the operator in Texas and PANR was the financial partner, etc, etc. It's all been said before. So where’s the good news, I hear you say? LKA's Independent Experts Report was a massive tick in the box....it means that the market doesn't have to rely *solely* on management but can also look to the professional opinion of a 3rd party to help make an assessment of the investment case. The market is also "missing", IMHO, the parties behind Great Bear: Riverstone, Farallon, Lord Browne, the founders and technical staff of Great Bear. Yes, following the Alaskan State Govt’s moratorium on rebating operational exploration costs GB did it pretty tough but, self-evidently, something made them hang in there....their faith in their own years of hard work which pointed towards a potentially massive oilfield(s) in the ANS - with close proximity to infrastructure as an added bonus. But they were determined not to be defeated, they pressed on and then what happened? Merger with PANR, fundraise, partnership with eSeis, successful flow test of abandoned Alkaid well, commercial oil defined, commissioned LKA report which delivered conclusion of Contingent Resource of 76.5mmbo with NPV10 valuation of $595m, success at December State lease auction with >1bn OIP guidance released 6 weeks after mere $900k investment in new leases. The GB team’s resilience and determination, and the individuals/entities standing behind it, should send quite a signal to the market, along with the fundamental progress listed of course. How to start reducing and eventually deleting the “management credibility” discount to the SP? By far the most important factor is to keep progressing on the ground in Alaska. I fully appreciate there’s a body of opinion which says, and I’m paraphrasing, “Stuff the share price, just get on with things, secure a farm out, get some wells funded and the market will look after itself.” Naturally being a fundamental style investor I have some sympathy with that and I’d always advocate for Bob Rosenthal’s team being primarily focussed on the dataroom and its occupants rather than private investors on a bulletin board. All that said, what can be done in the mean time? I appreciate some feel management should up their PR game, ref. Davidblack’s post #6066. I truly believe they’ve improved in this respect and I can’t help but think the combination of the December auction results (secrecy required to that date) and the LKA IER has given management the confidence to, metaphorically, get on the front foot and go out to preach the gospel. I also note that the RNSs have improved markedly in terms of transparency, clarity and detail – good stuff. I know I’ve written this before but I’d encourage anyone who has the time to attend the upcoming AGM on 20/3/20 at 3.30pm in the City. Bob Rosenthal will once again be the main presenter and whether you opt to invest or not after the AGM, I guarantee you will learn heaps during his address to shareholders. I appreciate AGMs are meant to be for shareholders but I’d be amazed if any non-holders who turned up to educate themselves about PANR were to be slung out. The auditorium is a good size for events of this nature and the Q&A after the formal presentation is usually very illuminating also. Rabito79 has done some great work on the comparisons between PANR and 88E. I’ve chipped in with some other pertinent points. I note Davidblack’s description of Charlie-1 being a “stranded asset” even if/when the planned flow tests on the deepest Stellar formations are successful. And yet this massive differential in valuation between the two stocks, using identical methodology on identical metrics, continues to be, how can I say this, completely out of whack!! Yeah, PMO is a respected company in the sector, it adds credibility and validation for sure, no question about it....but does it beat an *already completed* flow test confirming commercial oil plus an IER? I wouldn’t have thought so? Better a bird in the hand, etc? Plus I would submit that (hopefully) following success at Charlie-1, with PMO directing follow on investment to 3D seismic in whichever block they go for, there’s going to be a world of W.I. dilution and/or equity dilution heading 88e’s way IMHO. Yes, there’s hot money in 88E, everyone loves it when the drill bit is turning, I get it....but the valuation differential is just extraordinary, isn’t it? How else can I explain the differential? Aussie punters are even more “punter-ish221; in natural resource stocks than Brits? Yes, fine, agreed. 88E have invested in some excellent audio/visual slides and videos. They’re good and catch the eye but are they enough to facilitate a value differential which I consider to be an order of magnitude apart - and wrong?! So does it all come down to history? 88E have also had their failures but they were in different locations chasing different targets, and spaced quite far apart in time. No, what I keep coming back to as a primary explanation is the repeated failure to properly complete a well in Texas by Vision, and, quite naturally, PANR by implication. The market just can’t quite seem to get over this. Bloody hell, even some exceptionally educated and experienced investors on this thread who follow closely all the fundamental news, can’t get over it!! Ok, so where does that leave us right now, at time of writing? Go back to Stupidity’s post #6063 and re-read the following: “You're right I am thinking about whether the market has made a mistake with PANR. It happens, but it doesn't happen often and it doesn't normally persist over an extended period of time.” I am shaking my head with incredulity. Apart from a mechanism to raise capital, isn’t one of the very purposes of stockmarkets to provide an efficient mechanism with which to apply capital to those entities offering the optimum risk/reward characteristics? It not only "happens", but it "happens" all the time, and it's "happening" right now in individual stocks in equity markets. Another true story, bit dramatic but it makes the point. I had a wonderful fund manager client, he became a true friend later on, who had invested in ASOS under 100p! Clever fella. When ASOS announced their “free returns” policy, I think the shares were c.350p but let’s certainly say under 500p, ok? This fund manager just couldn’t get past the new policy, he thought the canny and cunning young ASOS customer base would take huge advantage of this new policy and that ASOS logistics and its business model wouldn’t be able to cope. He sold all his holding. He was right to do so at the time as the price went down.....for about 3 months, until the company updated the market and not only had the returns policy not dented ASOS’ business model nor clogged up their warehouse, the policy had led to a massive growth in customers and customer purchases. The fund manager had overestimated the cunning of the young consumers and underestimated their laziness in re-packaging their unwanted purchases and popping it back in the post within x days. So these “mistakes̶1; as Stupidity refers to market’s views and pricing happen *all the time*. Of course they’re not really “mistakes̶1;, they’re imperfections because the market, made up of human beings, cannot be perfect. So here’s the opportunity IMHO. The market has taken an exceedingly dim view of PANR management’s capabilities due to Texas operational errors – fine. Has this dim view “persisted over an extended period of time?” Yip, it probably has. But here’s the thing....if BR and eSeis are correct, Talitha turns outs to be a properly big accumulation and a farm out is completed to all parties’ satisfaction be it over GA or over the whole acreage, the snap back from the stretched rubber band will be extremely powerful. How so? Half the company is in the hands of Great Bear folk who aren’t going to be sellers because they’ve known the asset for 10 years and aren’t going to sell at the first sign the equity market has woken up. The rest of the company is owned by a few institutions I'm in touch with; some HNWs like Michael Spencer and others who have followed the fundamentals and aren’t traders; people who read this thread who are generally investors and not traders, most of whom would see a farm out as being the start of the journey and not the end. If and when the management credibility discount is removed from the PANR SP, possibly/probably sparked by a farm out agreement, I contend the reaction will be aggressive, material and speedy. My thesis would see the market chasing the stock pretty hard as the market digests the “new data”, then begins to appreciate the discount to something approaching reasonable value but which is then confronted by an educated shareholder base not prepared to sell their stock for pennies in the pound. So, yes, and completely understandably, some may prefer to wait until the, inevitable IMHO, 7am RNS announcing a farm out agreement -> the investment case therefore becomes substantially de-risked and they’re happy to pay a higher price.....but I’m not. I was lucky enough to add to my position at 13p last week. I want to benefit from the violent “elastic band snap” share price reaction I'm predicting. I believe the Independent Expert Report will have increased the *probability* of a successful farm out; it will have increased the *intensity* of interest from potential farminees (BR referring to unsolicited approaches to enter the dataroon); it will have *broadened* substantially the addressable market of potential partners (GA only v’s over all Alaskan acreage). I contend there is a clear jeopardy in *not owning* the stock right now. No need to rely on me, and if you want to apply the management credibility discount and not listen to them either, fine. To those still doubtful, how do you explain eSeis’ $2.7m decision to forego fees for a royalty on production (ex-GA) and how do you explain LKA’s NPV10 valuation of Greater Alkaid of $595m.....because both those firms have seen all the data. To the market I say, fine, discount management’s credibility all you want for now, but there’s starting to be some pretty significant 3rd party evidence that the equity market is wrong.....*and* those 3rd party opinions have seen all the confidential data - the market hasn’t. Hmmmmm......... GLA PS Will address farm out scenarios/structure in a separate post.
06/11/2019
10:32
gorgeousgeorge01: I thought it was a good update and most welcome. Shareholders need to be kept in the loop and today's RNS accomplishes that. I cannot fault the company at the moment - the work with shareholders has been superb. Long may it continue. Turning to the share price. I was watching the activity yesterday and thought to myself: "I reckon there's an RNS afoot - worry not." And sure enough... The fact is that there are myriad interpretations of "value" - we will get an idea of the reality when the farm-out is concluded. Until then, long-term holders are lobsters in a pot. We must be patient and roll - or should that be boil - with the process. Even today, the volumes are low and we have been here before. I haven't sold any shares in recent months and I have no intention of selling. On the other hand, anyone who says they know which way the price will move on any given piece of news is really talking nonsense. The share price is not a reflection of discounted future earnings but rather is a reflection of what we think the future share price will be. Our views are biased one way or another and the reality is likely to diverge from our own expectations. The efficient market is a sham and financial markets are inherently unpredictable - even technical analysis is art rather than science. Fundamentals are the object of guessing - a combination of information and our own bias. No one can know with any certainty how the share price will respond and the share price can even reflect conflicting possible outcomes at different times - Zig, Zag!
06/8/2019
15:18
done deal: PANR share price 'feels like' its going to blow 50p being the obvious next level.
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