Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Griffin Mining Limited LSE:GFM London Ordinary Share BMG319201049 ORD $0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  4.00 2.76% 149.00 26,518 16:35:01
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
143.50 148.00 145.00 143.00 143.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Mining 77.68 27.29 11.63 14.0 260
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:35:01 O 10,148 143.00 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
21/4/202119:42GRIFFIN Mining - Chinese Zinc & Gold (Moderated)45,796
21/4/202117:17Zinc & Gold with some Silver & Lead908
16/1/202115:51GFM UPDATE11
23/4/202015:46Mud suckers 2
14/8/201822:30Chinese dragon and Sageman 2

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Griffin Mining Daily Update: Griffin Mining Limited is listed in the Mining sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker GFM. The last closing price for Griffin Mining was 145p.
Griffin Mining Limited has a 4 week average price of 127p and a 12 week average price of 127p.
The 1 year high share price is 163p while the 1 year low share price is currently 36p.
There are currently 174,492,894 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 103,979 shares. The market capitalisation of Griffin Mining Limited is £259,994,412.06.
theapiarist: JPPP There is no straighforward answer your query as to how I arrived at my price target. I hope you are sitting down because, without my spreadsheet on the screen, this may be a long and boring explanation. Firstly I have no accountancy background so those better qualified please feel free to pour cold water over my figures and conclusions! For each set of annual results I calculate P/E based upon the reported dollar eps converted into pence stirling at the exchange rate prevailing at year end. As I want to gauge investor reaction to these results I calculate a trailing P/E based upon the share price immediately, or shortly after, the report comes out four or five months later. The P/E calculated in this manner for the four years 2016-2019 were:- 2016 21.38 2017 9.09 2018 8.15 2019 17.49 Bearing in mind that there was no licence extension over this period and the near certainty of a dividend, it’s not unreasonable to assume, other things being equal, that investor confidence will increase by May 2023. Sticking my finger in the air I have plumped for a 50% increase over the lowest of the above numbers eg a P/E of 12. This is not outrageous when compared to mining stocks quoted on US exchanges. The average P/E for Metals & Mining stocks is 30.2 and for Precious Metals it is 19.7 OK I know this is China but this is a large difference and the US statistics contain a lot of dogs which GFM certainly isn’t. The second part of my guestimate is the question of 2022 eps. Looking at commodity prices for the past 4 years the closest we have to those today was back in 2017. It’s not a perfect match with current zinc lower and precious metals higher. The following years were impacted by falling commodity prices and rising smelter costs. To a large extent these trends have now been reversed and I base my calculation on 2017. Nett profit in 2017 was £30,943,571 ( $43,321,000 ). Q4 2020 shows that the target of 1.1million tonnes in 2021 is doable. 1.5 million tonnes by 2022 should be within reach giving a 70% rise in output over 2017 levels. Many of the costs are fixed, the above ground capex spent and the below ground capex, such as it may be, will be spent in the course of 2021. Given the economies of scale I do not believe it unreasonable to assume a 70% increase in profits over 2017 giving an eps of 42p. (I haven’t made any allowance for share buybacks as they may be gobbled up by the directors!) The final calculation, assuming a P/E of 12 and eps of 42p, generates an estimated share price of £5.0 The uncertainties of commodity prices and grades lead me to reduce this by 10% to £4.50 If anyone is still awake please feel free to rubbish any or all of the above. But please be gentle with a frail old pensioner!
theapiarist: Sage Amen to your final paragraph. As to your first statement I have no idea whether or not my expectations are unrealistic. I purchased my stock some years back for 28/29p with a view to it being a long time hold rather than a trading stock. As you say GFMs profitability is largely a function of output level and commodity prices. We now know, almost for certain, that output will increase by circa 70% in 2022. If we assume steady commodity prices, I am prepared to stick my neck out and predict a doubling of profit and a 50% increase in the rating from where we are now by May 2023. This would imply a trebling of the share price to £4.50 by early 2023. I shall probably have my head chopped off and understandably so! But Pump & Dump certainly not. I've weathered the vagaries of GFM for long enough and have no intention of bailing any time soon. Off to England tomorrow! I have an apiary in Northumberland and DEFRA advice is that beekeepers should do whatever is necessary to look after their stock. Perhaps I shall have a pint in Rothbury since The Dear Leader up here continues to deny us that right.
alangriffbang: zoo looks like GFM share price is dying, I’ve only got gun , I hope it makes 2p with the amount I hold it’s a good payday, I appreciate along with sage you trying to sort it out but whilst I would like to see an end to it they don’t ,so it’s business as usual hope sage is watching this, off out now have a good afternoon,
rose_by_another_name: Now my ADVFN portfolio page is showing a drop in the GFM share price
mattjos: Here, here. Sadly not an investor at 3p but, a well balanced and sensible post. God thing is the share price is creeping ever upwards even with so many people being so negative about the company and its directors … soon enough, a time will come when a wave of new enthusiastic investors arrive and then we'll finally see the valuation move somewhere nearer a sensible level and that is a share price beginning with £3, afaiac.
sageman: Hi Alan, irrespective of whether 88e goes to £1m a share I would not regret selling. A complete woofer 90% down sold at a 35% profit - miracle.Based on information currently in public domain I am happy. When new info emerges I may reinvest even if at a higher price. The cycle is placing ( share price drop), spud, speculation ( share price gain). Then result = gain,collapse or mild profit taking). The pro’s take the gain prior to the result. Post result the cycle starts again as the next drill is planned. People think this is binary but it isn’t. I have been through 2 drill failures and have learned my lesson and got out in profit. History will repeat whether on 88e or another drill.
up just a little bit: Let's see what Q1 brings, could be a good uplift to the GFM share price.
zooman: UP Mill is another poster with a view who had been around for a long time and knows the company as do a lot of us. It remains the same the Institutions are wary of China as I've said many times. ELs work brings her into contact with annalists and the view is that its not Griffin its China. If Griffin were in say Australia then a dividend would work the share price would fly, its not the company but the location that's the problem. The bureaucratic forces in play over there make the risks too high. They have had plenty of opportunity to buy in even when a dividend was paid but it was to no avail. This share as Sage Says and I agree with him is about growth given the restrictive circumstances. I just wind the others up over the buybacks because anyone with half a brain will know the drop is more about the year end historically Griffin always drops on the news then climbs and drops during the quiet periods. Again the Q1 update is due in around a week going forward last time it was on the 14th so if in the mean time the share price drops I shall take advantage of it. It has nothing to do with the lack of dividends or buybacks being made. Because as we all know they have not been cancelled, my opinion on that is they will be done in one go at a time maybe of the Q1 update but just a view.Zoo
mattjos: none of which is particularly relevant at this stage, imo. The share price is simply much too cheap as compared to the value of the business and it's in-ground resources. The business is going to take a huge, huge step forward this year with the expansion & should also see associated economies of scale help lower their /t costs. None of this is reflected in the current market cap. A doubling in the share price would still not see this at fair value. Of course the company are happy to passively soak up some stock at this price .. we'll quickly see a terrific return on these purchases.
theapiarist: Zoo The obvious problem with trading GFM is, as you point out, it's lack of liquidity and to a lesser extent the spread. I hold 300,000 shares, not bragging, just saying. If I start to shift that it would have a self defeating effect on the share price As things stand I have a long term view of where the share price may go and am content to wait it out. By contrast a stock I have been actively trading is FRES. It is volatile but the liquidity is such that it is possible to easily buy/sell large blocks of stock.
Griffin Mining share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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