Blackbird Takeover Rumours (BIRD)

Regarding the latest fundraising, I just listened again to the explanation given by IM on Investor Meets Company, He said a few things, starting with the fact that some high net worth individuals approached Blackbird expressing a wish to invest directly in the company. I don't understand this. They could have bought shares on the open market like the rest of us. Schroders have been willing persistent sellers for ages and so this could easily been achieved. From Blackbird's perspective, the fundraising done the way it was done, provided additional cash, because it was done this way. It seems either Blackbird realised that to have extra cash may be beneficial given the uncertainties of the forward journey, or maybe they wanted a seperate fund available to pay for legal expenses in dealing with a takeover bid which may or may not reach an advantageous ending.

Salmon good post 15989 Regarding the 6p (25m m/cap valuation) I think the Company needs to advise the investment community when they intend to start monetising the product even if it is an approximate timescale. I understand Sumit's point that they can't add premium features until they have been tested thoroughly, but the Company hasn't yet given a vague time when the paid option kicks in. It does need to happen sooner than later to ensure the cash lasts. Still, they have a decent runway and there are a few positive scenarios that could happen before then including:- a takeover (several potential candidates for that), Avid opting to license Blackbird ME technology for their Cloud issues and an upturn in small-cap sentiment.

NickB- “yes Blackbird in reality is a specialist investment not for most of the public.â€￾ Not sure that’s true or relevant tbh. My best investment by a distance in recent years has been in Rolls Royce, made almost a 5x return but I know diddly squat about jet engines or modular nuclear reactors. I understand the very basic fundamentals of video editing and codecs, a little more about SaaS / cloud from what I do, and taking start ups to IPO or takeover purely from working in companies in that scenario. I have been hugely enthusiastic about BIRD as well as fatalistic but that’s mostly just from reading comments on here. For a stock which really doesn’t have a lot of volume in sales or dynamic shift in price, it’s actually one of the shares I’m most intrigued by and invested in (thanks to RR profits). Keep posting on here, your input is always appreciated.

The fund raise a few months ago suggests to me that there isn’t a company waiting in the wings to takeover. Not conclusive evidence though Nick’s logic is very valid but my guess is that it doesn’t happen

clocktower The share price is meaningless it does not reflect the value of the IP. That will only be reflected here in the UK AIM market when an offer for the company comes in. One minute we could be 6p, the next 600p. In fact what does the SP tell us at any point in time other than the popularity of the stock? In the US markets investors seem to appreciate IP and so its value shows more in the SP. It's the same with chartists they can predict the popularity of the share but can't predict a takeover event unless there are leaks before official news release.

Hairflick, all great while it’s free, and it sounds as though the basics will be free constantly, so how many will upgrade and pay for the premium model? Everyone loves free, and if they could get revenue on the side in some way, then it would be far more attractive. My current view is that bar a takeover, which is very possible, the road will be long and hard, and the sp will go nowhere.

Do we think that this technically completely rules out any takeover talks, also?

hTTps://seekingalpha.com/news/4088351-vimeo-quickly-gains-amid-takeover-speculation

From Wikipedia â€￾In September 2023, Getty Images announced that it was partnering with Nvidia to launch Generative AI by Getty Images, a new tool that lets people create images using Getty's library of licensed photos. Getty will use Nvidia's Edify model, which is available on Nvidia's generative AI model" Our recent collaboration could be the video version for Nvidia Nvidia architecture is probably very geared up towards ARM, although it was not permitted to takeover for competition reasons. All very interesting and imho just highlights how ridiculous the market cap is for Blackbird. Just my thoughts, DYOR.

Good morning all. I was just thinking about the costs for a USA company taking over a UK company. Surely one of the biggest ones is the exchange rate. Currently the US$ is relatively strong compared to GB£. This could change quite rapidly over next few weeks with apparently some dire economic data on the horizon, well that's according to bitcoin fanatics. Is the exchange rate considered in takeover transactions?

Cabi IM and SS would be paid more than the other shareholders in any takeover, so IM would always be covered .. They would get sale share price + extra Normal procedure

Nick2412 Thank you for the excellent post. I remember reading the article that you have pointed to, and how good it felt to see Blackbird as a possible future $1 billion takeover target! Very interesting times are ahead!

NickB Thank you for such a clear logical assessment of what the possibilities may be going forward. For a hugely wealthy company already involved in video editing, keen to keep on adding significant growth, the opportunity to secure elevate's advanced technology would surely be very tempting. Given the big company's resources, and the fact that their existing tech in video editing is very soon going to look old tech, the downside risk of buying elevate would seem to be very low indeed, and the upside potential would be considerable. Recent attempted takeover experience should persuade them of the benefits of making an early move to reduce the authorities' concerns about competition considerations.

You guys probably won’t get this but Big news in the world of cameras A disruptor has just been acquired by old school. Brings cinema level quality to creator level? RedShark news has it. ‘Nikon's takeover of RED wasn't on our 2024 bingo card! The announcement today that Nikon is taking over 100% of RED.com LLC sent shockwaves through the industry. It could send shockwaves through camera development as well. Short of Nikon taking over Panavision or Sony, the announcement that it was taking over RED Cinema LLC will possibly turn out to be the most earth shattering and totally unexpected news of 2024. The news also throws up a whole raft of questions as to where this might take the camera market.’

Yep total puff piece. Makes me wonder if he’s putting himself in the shop window. If there’s a takeover, I can’t see him being needed. If elevate takes off - is it his area? He wasn’t employed to lead a d2c business. Obviously he’s heavily invested, so I’m not doubting his commitment.

I'd be delighted with an early takeover but BIRD will be in a stronger position to negotiate a higher price once they get traction. At some stage, the player will be integrated and BIRD will sell/offer data feedback to creators just as Google do for website creators. BIRD the Google analytics equivalent of video? Probably not, but it will 'steer' (to use Steven Streater's word) subscribers to elevate and help monetisation for both the creator and BIRD.

Thanks pat-cash, I totally agree with your thoughts rather than NickB's doom and gloom outlook if BIRD isn't taken over for 2 trillion within the next 12 weeks. That seems an extreme mindset as there is a highly lucrative middle ground. I suspect Mo Valens and Sumit Rai might just have a tad more experience and knowledge about effective strategy. They built up 1m users with a vastly inferior offering. As you say pat, partnerships are a low-cost way of getting early traction and profitability. A smaller profit from each payer from a much larger number of subscribers that are accumulated much more quickly with a strategy that preserves cash sounds fine to me. The approach doesn't exclude the possibility of a partnership with one of the very large players either. Neither does it exclude the prospect of a takeover which I suspect will happen this year.

Nick, that's why they will be going down the route of partnerships as confirmed by either Mo Valens or Sumit Rai when asked the question. I understand it was a one-word answer but an emphatic 'yes' nonetheless. The stated objective is to gain traction in the market with existing cash and if a takeover comes it comes, if not, a product with market traction and the best technology equates to a substantially higher share price - takeover or no takeover. I do agree with you that there will be a takeover but my perspective is that it's not likely to be imminent as in the next couple of months. Anyway, we have covered all that ad nauseam.

I don't really get the view that if Adobe doesn't buy then Blackbird is restricted and destined to embark on a long-term Canva-style route. As mentioned:- "5) If Adobe doesn't buy elevate/Blackbird, does that mean that a takeover will never happen? Far from it. It probably increases the prospects of a takeover. If Adobe creates a competitive product then the likes of Google, Microsoft, Canva and other Adobe competitors are going to need something immediately that will compete. Not all will have embarked on finding a solution. Also, the Blackbird tach and patents make it unlikely they will produce anything as good anytime soon."

Nothing stupid about your theory Nick. There's a lot of logic and sense to it and with all the cutting-edge, patented competitive advantages 'the package' will have, then I believe it will happen. The caveat is the share price is screaming 'not just yet' and the share price usually is a foreteller. Maybe it's a unique and different scenario from any other takeover in the history of AIM this time. Unlikely at this stage but you never know.

Maybe her attendance will be related to fund raising and setting out the plan for that over the next 12 months. I think we were told by Blackbird management that that may be planned for the autumn. Maybe it will be to explain how another issue will be dealt with eg a takeover offer that could feasible be announced a day or two before the meeting. Maybe it will be to explain changes in holdings by particular institutional investors. Maybe there is some other reason.............. Maybe they didn't intend to announce her attendance at this stage!

Scroll back to my posts, I am 90% sure they want to take BIRD private, or as Nick says there is a takeover in the wings. What ever is going on it will still be 30 bagger regardless. No advice [-) ssb

Cabi1, surely you can't possibly rule out a takeover at an early stage. I would suggest there is no evidence which rules that out. Please prove beyond doubt that I am wrong.

Maybe Figma buys elevate.io with the $1 billion it received from Adobe in the failed takeover, to compete with Adobe in the video space.

ClipChamp was to takeover from windows moviemaker elevate wasn’t available. Apple has its own basic video editor and a more serious one so Microsoft needed something. Does Microsoft want to elevate its video editing capabilities? Big picture (imho) The destination for all these creator video editing solutions is hyper scale level video editing in a browser (no software) Visually Draw a diagram of a 🎯 and lines away and put different companies names to each line and measure their distance from the bulls eye and the spread of the line to show any potential misses. Then do Blackbird elevate to me is very close🎯 to hitting Adobe is sweating Canva is enthusiastic Microsoft / Amazon is we don’t care we will just charge for infrastructure YouTube, TikTok and X want the content

I appreciate that Clipchamp is very much a low-level bog-standard video editing app, but it would still be interesting to know how much MS paid for it IMO. If they paid $50m say, then it put down a marker for how much the massively superior Elevate could be worth for the early-stage pre-rampup takeover scenario which many on this board think is feasible.

NickB I also accept the possibility of a takeover in the near term, before elevate.io is launched. I wouldn't expect it would help the vital focus on the testing work to announce anything about a takeover in the middle of that process. To do so may demotivate an unpredictable percentage of those involved in testing. It is one thing to feel motivated to help a small disruptive high quality tech company like Blackbird to develop a new innovative exciting product. It would probably be a less enticing prospect to help a big tech company gain even more market share! So, the best time to make an announcement would be shortly prior to launch. If it isn't then, it could be anytime after that. I do wonder whether the small sales team at Blackbird may be a pointer to what may be going on.

Nick B I am not one for pedantry but you keep putting it in caps that your perspective on a potential takeover is not a prediction as if the word bothers you; it shouldn't. A prediction is "something which you think will happen in the future". You do think it will happen, so by its dictionary definition, it is a prediction. Not that it matters or necessitates the use of caps. You are not claiming certainty, insider information or Mystic Meg powers. Nobody has suggested that. 'Predict' is usually associated with using facts to make inferences. Nothing wrong with that and different views make for interesting reading. Lastly, I didn't say you used the word "dire". I termed the failure that you project if no takeover materialises a dire outcome, which it is, although I don't anticipate failure - far from it. Anyway, hopefully, the seller is running out of stock, I also added a bit more today.

Nick, my 30,000 to 50,000 numbers are an initial target over the first year where I feel takeover interest might start, not an end-point. It's not going to go from zero to a million plus paid users overnight. Likewise, it's not going from 25m m/cap to a 1 billion-plus m/cap instantly even with a takeover offer. Listed stocks just don't do that. You know the industry much better than me and I respect that so we will see. I hope you are right. Who knows, one day I might join the Church of the Latter Day Birdsters but for now, I'll stay a bit more grounded with my expectations. Remember young Blackbirds can't fly, but when they evolve and take off they soar.

My view FWIW whoever's selling have done a deal and will be rewarded after a takeover.

Fair enough. Things will take their time. Sans takeover, my chart suggests 30p by August. But it's in the lap of the gods.

The latest news is that the parent company of Paramount is potentially subject to a takeover bid from the parent company of Channel 5

I am going to take a risk........ I think that in real terms, we are so close to the Launch of elevate that, even if we are to be taken over, it is still appropriate to appoint a digital marketing person as part of the launch team. I say this, because in the world of possibilities, I don't think it is necessary for a takeover to stop the launch dead in it's tracks. All the staff involved with all the detailed aspects of inventing and promoting elevate are, I assume, at Blackbird in Wimbledon, so this is just one more member of staff who will play an important role. If there is a takeover, the integration with another company may take a number of forms one of which would be to integrate with an "elevate" with the engine running.

Thanks Pat. Looking on, I feel that NickB just feels excited when another piece of information arises which could fit in with his theory, or at least doesn't conflict with his theory. I really do understand that because I also feel that something big may be going on. I also think perhaps like NickB, that infact the most exciting possibility is launching on our own and achieve a major success for us $$$$$. An early takeover would on the other hand provide an amazing return with no ongoing risk. It is all about risk appetite!! It would be interesting to know what IM and SS would prefer. Maybe SS would be happy to partner a big player and see his invention become the industry standard. What a compliment to his intellect that would be. Tomorrow is another day in this waiting game!!

Giusy di Francesco Senior Social & Digital Strategist | ex- Amazon • Marketing Psychology Nerd 🧠 • MSc ( After a short career break, I'm excited to start 2024 with a bang! Can't share too much at this stage ðŸ¤￾ ----- That's from the new appointments linked in messages. The "Can't share too much at this stage" and " my lips are sealed" emoji very clearly allude to a £1 billion takeover by Adobe. She starts her sentence with a capital A as a teasing hint. It's a done deal. Okay a bit tongue-in-cheek, but I suspect there will be some current NDAs in place and perhaps even one or more partnerships. I've no idea what form they will take, but I am sure Mo Valens will be enterprising in how he gets the launch off with 'a bang', to use Ms Di Francesco's term, with such a small marketing budget.

Nick2412, I would suggest that it is vital that Blackbird plays the Elevate game to win with total effort. In the case of Elevate that includes Sumit and Mo as leaders, to plan, spearhead and execute the product development, and the whole sales and marketing plan and campaign. This is key to helping maximise Elevate's chances of success. Along the journey between now and years in the future, there may be a takeover approach to Blackbird for Elevate, and the more successful Elevate is looking, the better the negotiating position that Blackbird will be in. I would suggest that a takeover offer is in theory possible at an early stage, but from the outset, it would definitely not be relied upon, as part of the plan, to any extent at all.

I dont see the problem with regards to competition. It is a big market, so it is inevitable that there is competition, but that doesnt mean there isnt enough market share for everyone, given the size The main thing is to know exactly who in the market you are aiming at, and provide the best product and service to them ...I think the Team have prepared themselves to do that I personally think that the big boys may well approach after around Year 1 , when it gives a clear sign that real growth potential is there. It will then be down to shareholders whether they accept that going further in terms of scale becomes an issue alone, and therefore accept a takeover....or..they reject it and take on the difficult challenge of scaling and raising the money needed to do that.

Well, if Adobe are going to launch a takeover bid in the next few months then someone needs to tell the shareprice ;o))

Bluebreaker, that was me. I'd contrast that with Avid who were taken over with a 33% premium although accepted that they were already around 1b m/cap. Management holds roughly 25% here, so any relatively low-priced hostile takeover bid would struggle to succeed. Any potential bidder would have to approach the likes of Premier Miton (holding circa 17%) , get them onside, and also have to offer something enticing enough to tempt retail shareholders. Invariably any company that is taken over has a run-up through dubious insider dealing or even an announcement that states that there has been an approach that doesn't meet the board's valuation. So it wouldn't take much for BIRD to run up to 20p to 25p and then achieve the 50p bid level a few on here aspire to if an interested party had intent. I'd be ecstatic but I understand people have different averages. The share price right now isn't indicative of any potential predator having any plans but you never know.

Someone was asking about record takeover premiums: when media entrepreneur Robert F.X. Sillerman announced plans to buy shell company, Gateway Industries, in 2011, the latter's shares went from a few cents to $2.97 during the day, a gain of 20,000%. A similar rise here would take us to £12 :-)))

An interesting quote from today's Sunday Times business section page 6. The article is headed "Tech's craziest year yet". In a piece headed "What's in store for 2024?" it says....... "Tech titans go shopping, kind of. Generative AI start-ups raised $25 billion last year. It was an extraordinary figure - five times the amount raised in 2022 - that came despite a 50% drop in venture capital funding overall. Virtually every big tech company is being sued or investigated both sides of the Atlantic. That makes outright takeovers tricky. Grabbing control of the most promising start-ups by showering them with money, however, is less so. The era of soft takeover is upon us." Sounds like Blackbird's new elevate should draw attention, given all the reasons NickB has repeatedly explained.

Bought back a couple of days or so after a couple of years on the sidelines. Never thought it would drop back this far. It looks like it is make or break with elevate but if it does take off then the upside is of course vast. Quite a few unknowns and unpredictables on how many subscribers they can get reasonably early and the split between paid and unpaid. It would be interesting to know the internal figure of the number of users to bring BIRD to breakeven. They are unlikely to reveal that but perhaps as low as 50,000 to 60,000 paid users would get them there. If it looks like take-up is heading towards that level then I expect takeover speculation to heighten. There are apparently 61 million YouTube video makers and so a decent target market there. As NickB said some sort of link between Figma or Canva would be transformational but I'd imagine they are more likely to buy than partner. Interesting times ahead.

Some should not comment on things they do not understand. Only reason they would need any raise is to allow takeover without any of us PI's. Pretty sure SS and IM would never allow that. Let us BIRD finaly be an AIM winner not a fraud like most. No advice, BWTFDIK

Simple arithmetic helps clarify the impact of the new product. Even at the low end of $15 average monthly fee the numbers rapidly become huge e.g 250,000 users = $45M annual sales, at a net margin of say 50% = $22.5M or $0.06 per share with a P/E of 25 = $1.50. With rapidly growing sales and a better net margin SSBs £37 does not look quite so impossible. I doubt that £1 appeals to SBS or IM so a takeover bid at that price is highly unlikely. .

Hopefully pivotal in a good way - takeover and/or commercial success