Well the 'change in the short term' is a year-end cash-call. There are several possibilities as to how that might be resolved, from a financially supportive JV to a desperate rights-issue. Something will have to happen and you can exclude any near-term sales of pig-iron. Personally, I doubt Redbird will be allowed to increase their stake any further (without a takeover)...
Why is it a 'de-ramp' to explore a scenario? Personally, I doubt 'going private' is all that likely a scenario these days. In BAO's case, Redbird hold such a big slice, it would be simpler to takeover the company first. The 12 month rule would require them to bid ~20p/share, but I doubt they would really want the whole company. It would have to be pretty desperate (financially) for BAO, for such a bid to be made (and succeed). On the other hand, such a scenario is not impossible, if post DFS the project remains stalled. However you look at this going forward, the 'future' always comes down to who/when is the (deep-pockets) JV partner for this pig-iron project?...
This is what is stated...
Any increase in Redbird's aggregate shareholding up to 50 per cent. of the voting rights arising other than from the issue of the Conditional Placing Shares or the exercise of the Conditional Placing Options or Third Tranche Options will be subject to the provisions of Rule 9 of the Takeover Code.
By AMED, you are presumably refering to Redbird's holding? If shares were bought in the open market (increasing their holding), it would necessarily trigger a takeover bid. Redbird are already listed as owning well over 30% of the company (by virtue of a voted takeover-code waiver at the last placing)...
These ongoing negotiations are the only reason I can think of, don't think smelter results are going to do it. We need that funding/JV/takeover RNS nothing else will do it IMO.
WAFM buying started
West African Minerals Corporation (WAFM) Takeover Talk,Jindal Steel and Power (JSPL) is close to acquiring an iron ore mine in West Africa to secure raw material for its recently commissioned steel...- Today, 10:41 AM
pete is that the same BHR that supposedly rejected a takeover at around 16p a few years back ?
I was having a think last night about why we have heard so little from the company both in terms of news and also responses to emails. I know my emails, Kenny's and some others have gone unanswered. Now we all know the board are very investor friendly and always respond, so why not now?
In my opinion something is wrong or more likely right. Is it too fanciful an idea to suggest they are in deep negotiations with a major with a view to takeover or JV with a condition of the negotiations, a complete embargo on communications with PIs, as they do not want to influence the SP prior to an official bid being made.
Rubbish theory or not ?
IF AMED did buy them they would then be subject to Rule 9 of the Takeover Code...
kbrook, spot on.
or we could sell the asset for a nominal fee.
question I have on the hypothetical question is:
would the IFC let this happen
would AMED let this happen
the IFC have very deep pockets and one can see them increasing their stake with an investment.
and also, Standard will have done a really really poor job if they fail to find a funding stream/JV or Takeover (Standard themselves have very deep pockets and will fund this as a last resort imo!!!)
6k, the issue with that price = Â£150m
so, if Vale offered Â£150m do you not believe that Nippon would offer Â£200m.
and then RIO could offer Â£250m etc. It is possible and likely.(in principle, ignore the numbers).
you have to have realistic expectations of course I understand but on a 2mtpa this is about $450m profit per annum for a long long time. Companies such as those I listed need junior exploration companies for their own growth and I firmly believe that one of these company (or another) will need to offer an amount that cannot be beaten.
I remain expectant of around Â£1 in the shorter term but more so on a full takeover, dependent of JV terms than your valuation is more likely to apply.