Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[wheeze] 12/1/2020 08:21

hxxps://www.change.org/p/secretary-of-state-for-business-energy-and-industrial-strategy-stop-the-sale-of-siruis-minerals-yorkshire-to-anglo-americ

[11_percent] 11/1/2020 19:35

muckshifter,

Cheers.

[muckshifter] 11/1/2020 17:19

11%,
In answer to your question, no I don't have any specific theory about why AA decided to buy 100% rather than say 80%, which I think they could have had at 3.5p / share.

I do wonder just how committed they are though, as there are an awful lot of things that could go wrong with this project, which is why I half expect an extension to the DD period.
For example, I've been suggesting for a long time that the output expectations put out by Sirius, and the time to build up to that output, looked unrealistic to me. Don't know much about AA, but I would be prepared to bet that during their long mining history they have never excavated 10 million tonnes of very hard rock from a deep mine a mile deep and brought it to the surface in a year, let alone the 20mtpa Sirius were talking about achieving within just a few years.

So if they have serious doubts to overcome - and don't forget that the stuff AA wrote in their RNS notifying interest was verbatim quotes from Sirius documents afaics, ie. easily deniable, this form of approach (with perhaps an extension of DD time) is less risky than my suggestion of about a month ago. And the prospective but not confirmed price may be designed to frighten off opposition until the cash situation precludes an alternative bid in time to keep continuity.

[the millipede] 11/1/2020 16:14

Why don't you write to AA and ask them?

[kreature] 11/1/2020 15:41

Anyone know why they would pay millions for this when they could probably get it for next to nothing when the money runs out? Even then, why pay next to nothing if they then need to pay 3 billion more just to get started ? Beyond me, I just don’t understand

[amaretto1] 11/1/2020 14:11

A buy at under 3 !

[amaretto1] 11/1/2020 14:09

Why would u go for a JV ... with a Skint partner ?? Think about it ...... shareholders are lucky to get 5.5 p

[the millipede] 11/1/2020 13:58

AA will make a lot of cash here.

This project is material even for a FTSE100 behemoth.

The opportunity for current SXX shareholders has gone, however.

Shame, but there it is.

[11_percent] 11/1/2020 13:35

JV or buy-out......I am not bovered like.....is there still cash to made here.....and the answer is....yes...

[11_percent] 11/1/2020 13:32

Why do YOU think they haven't gone for a JV? :)

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Lol....."I read on the back of a toilet door" that it was a JV...….it was the toilet in a pub called the Blackfriars.

Its a good question like…….lets see what mucky says.

[not my real name] 11/1/2020 13:20

11%,

Your question reminds me of a senate investigation into the the cause of the space shuttle disaster when the 7 astronauts were killed.

A witness was asked what he thought the MAIN reason for the accident was. He thought for a minute, sucked in a large breath and replied, "250,000 different parts and every one of them was the cheapest, what do YOU think was the main reason for the accident."

If it works out well AA will trouser around a billion a year for the next 100 years. Or they could go for a JV with a lame duck company run by lame duck management and hope that lame duck JPM could sort out the finances to enable Sirius to take half of their potential profits of 100 billion in order to save less than 300 million!

Why do YOU think they haven't gone for a JV? :)

NMRN

[11_percent] 11/1/2020 13:06

muckshifter,

Do you have any thoughts on why AA went for a buy-out and not a JV.

Cheers.

[11_percent] 11/1/2020 13:05

The Millipede
11 Jan '20 - 09:31 - 46594 of 46599
0 0 0
I don't have any shares here any more so no real vested interest but I wonder why AA won't agree to a joint venture, instead of buying the whole lot, especially as they are likely to leave management in place.

==============

JV was how I thought it would go...….but AA have decided to go for a buy-out.

Not so sure about...…"likely to leave management in place.)……;…..I would go with the lenses prediction of...…."CF sacked in 2020".

[11_percent] 11/1/2020 12:58

"If I'm right, the extension will play temporary havoc with Sirius share price, but I still think the deal will go through."

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So.…..could be an opportunity.

The extension RNS should see a fall in the share price ..….because, peeps will see it as AA having second thoughts (which their not)……..so, but the bip and get the 5.5p later.

[the millipede] 11/1/2020 09:31

I don't have any shares here any more so no real vested interest but I wonder why AA won't agree to a joint venture, instead of buying the whole lot, especially as they are likely to leave management in place.

Right now they seem willing to pay 5.5p per share, pay off the outstanding bonds and Gina for the privilege of paying 2.5bn to fund the mine.

But if they will agree to that why could Sirius not persuade them to accept a 50% stake in exchange for half of the £480m to cover the amount required immediately under the new plan? Sirius keep the bonds and liability to Gina, and they split all future costs.

With a JV partner I imagine Sirius would find it easier to get finance (which would be halved in any case). Indeed, AA could provide it - there are potential parallels in the deal Premier Oil has with Rockhopper.

Anyway, I imagine CF will have thought of this and maybe AA just aren't interested. It does seem to have turned out as I always said it would: good project with little value for current holders.

[bill hickman] 10/1/2020 21:26

LOL

Buystock still posting links to your twitter ramping handle smallcappick.

How many twitter ramping handles have you got buystock ?

[beeezzz] 10/1/2020 21:13

There is still a lot to play for here, we are out of EU when bid has to be submitted...

[amaretto1] 10/1/2020 18:17

i sold at 5.5 With Avg of 3I was one of the lucky ones.Feel for LTH