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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sirius Minerals Plc | SXX | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 5.49 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.49 | 5.49 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 23/11/2023 20:53 by original fastjet Sharesoc halt any further investigation into Sxx sale to AA.That's the end of that then. Big boys walk away scott free. Whatever happened to cf?? Prob sitting in the Caribbean by his private pool 🤔🤔 |
Posted at 03/7/2023 07:21 by hazl Thank you John I am incensed by that video.I feel sorry for the CEO of SXX who worked so hard to keep it and for the people locally who had shares so I understand. |
Posted at 19/2/2023 10:30 by bigbigdave Met a bloke at the pub who told me to invest in SXX.......rule no 1....ignore share tips down the pub :o) |
Posted at 19/1/2021 07:51 by the chairman elect EMLLSE:EML Another POTASH play with the old boss of SXX now at the helm.... Notes to Editors Emmerson's primary focus is on developing the Project located in Northern Morocco. The Project has a large JORC Resource Estimate (2012) of 537Mt @ 9.24% K 2 O and significant exploration potential with an accelerated development pathway targeting a low capex, high margin mine. Khemisset is perfectly located to capitalise on the expected growth of African fertiliser consumption whilst also being located on the doorstep of European markets. This unique positioning means the Project will receive a premium netback price compared to existing potash producers. The need to feed the world's rapidly increasing population is driving demand for potash and Emmerson is well placed to benefit from the opportunities this presents. The Feasibility Study released in June 2020 indicated Khemisset has the potential to be among the lowest capital cost development stage potash projects in the world and also, as a result of its location, one of the highest margin projects. This delivered outstanding economics including a post-tax NPV 10 of approximately US$1.4 billion using industry expert, Argus', price forecasts. |
Posted at 13/2/2020 21:10 by sean33 If ANglo America are prepared after a lot of proding around what SXx has built and SXx books to put up a significant amount of money for an excellent money earning project then why can't SXx find a financial institution(s) to help SXx build their own multi billion pound company. The infrastructure is already at the point of no return and if there is someone (company as merger or royalties) to back an excellent management team and company that has the future in Britains own back yard. It would also be good labour as the North Sea depletes the labour force could be reinvested here |
Posted at 09/12/2019 00:03 by holidayfunds8 clotted cream - you obviously have a lot of knowledge on how the fertilizer industry now works, and I'd be delighted if the SXX story would get rather more focused upon how a range of true, industry experts feel Poly4 will be able to break into the existing, established market, where blends and compounds make up such a high proportion of the current market.I can readily concede there is likely to some resistance to Poly4 from the established blenders & compounders because, well, that's potentially a key feature of the polyhalite product offering, in that Poly4 comes out of the ground with 4 of the 6 key nutrients ALREADY in a compounded form (plus some extras). I am guessing you do agree that Poly4 does have those 4 macro nutrients - right? But that you feel that, even with those nutrient contributions, that Poly4 will not offer farmers enough of an incentive to change away from the mix of products they use today. Or perhaps, you just feel that Poly4 is new, and maybe the industry will not take kindly to any degree of change. If so, that's fair enough. It would be interesting to see how the bankers did assess the risks here - my feeling is that CF & team were just trying to be too clever here, by trying to get such a high % of the overall funding covered by 'close to normal-rated' external bonds / loans. In practice, a greater proportion of the risk should be on the shoulders of shareholders. But I guess few of us really know the inside view of why the funding arrangements fell through. CH & team have suggested there were worries about the risks associated with the mine construction itself, but you are suggesting that the lenders saw the real risk that the whole Poly4 end market value proposition would not fly. But you will be aware that the nearby ICL operation has invested in pretty quick time to ramping up polyhalite production as far and as fast as they can, and they do appear to be shifting the stuff out without any trouble. I was trying to work out what ICL was getting per tonne, but they do not readily disclose that info, but the overall ICL accounts do not appear immediately inconsistent with the $ prices that SXX has been running with. And, note, as you plug in rather lower $ price assumptions, you have an awfully long way to go down, before the SXX project values get anywhere close to not making sense. So, putting everything into the pot, I get the feeling that the established fertilizer players will not be too happy when Poly4 does come onto the scene, but my recent investment into SXX reflects my view that Poly4 has enough intrinsic nutrient value in it to be able to readily pick up a modest slice of the existing market. But, as I say, I'd be delighted if the whole SXX debate could be more centrally focused on a more visible debate on whether Poly4 can break into the existing market in any meaningful way (say, up to the 20mtpa level) and what sort of average $ prices the product could command. However, those of a negative bent here virtually never want to get into that side of the debate, but I'd be delighted if that happened. If I saw that Agri experts at leading UK Universities held a clearly negative view on the outlook for Poly4, then that would obviously be views that any sensible investor would listen to. Equally, though, if the same people were to hold a positive view on the outlook for Poly4, a simple person like me would take such views on board also. In that regard, I'd be grateful if you could point me to any published material from industry experts who hold a negative view on the outlook for Poly4, either from leading UK institutions or from places abroad, as I fully agree that any such views need to placed center stage in the current SXX share price debate. |
Posted at 17/11/2019 14:23 by holidayfunds8 Just reading my own posts, just to make things absolutely clear:* this is not one for widows & orphans, this is obviously a rather risky situation; * it is obviously HIGH RISK, not least because the share price has COLLAPSED from 37 pence to just 3 pence over the last 14 months, as the lack of agreed financing has been seen to bite; * the SXX team have not managed the financing plan well, either in terms of basic mechanics, nor in terms of setting market expectations; * the market does not like surprises, and the SXX team moved from saying 'all will be well' to the position of 'we need to reassess what we are doing all round' within the space of a few weeks; * markets will heavily punish quoted companies that fail to deliver, especially when the delivery failure relates to financing & running out of cash; So the SXX team have been heavily punished for how they have managed (or mis-managed) the mine financing plan and also, to a fair degree, on the fact that their previous plan majored on the transportation system, rather than on the mine site itself. So it is possible that things will not turn out well here for current SXX shareholders - if, for any reason, it ends up that no Strategic Partner wants to get a major % shareholding in return for stumping up $600 million, then the other debt lenders will take their lead from that decision and question the $NPV Project values that have so far been headlined. My own interest in posting on this BB is not to encourage others to invest in SXX but, rather, just to counter the obvious attempts to drive the share price into the ground. To be honest, I'd now be delighted to be able to buy SXX shares for 2 pence or 1 pence, but my view is that the 3 pence mark will end up being the low point in this game. But, hey, I MIGHT be wrong, but I have put out a positive view which I hope makes sense & hangs together. |
Posted at 17/11/2019 14:01 by holidayfunds8 Not My Real Name,You are saying 2 different things which don't seem to be consistent: "I am firmly in the camp which says the mine will get built but current shareholders will be diluted to near extinction. These shares are NOT cheap at any price in my opinion." So questions / comments back at you would be as follows: 1. If the existing SXX shares are not worth ANYTHING, why are you firmly of the view that SOMEBODY ELSE will now take control, and complete the construction of the mine into production? 2. You seem to be suggesting that there is indeed an obvious Project $NPV, based upon expected future cash flows, which readily support the required $bn investment to construct the mine? 3. So why do you feel the maths works for SOMEBODY ELSE, but does not work for the incumbent SXX team? I would readily agree that the SXX team have made a complete mess of the initial financing plan, in that I think they were SO CONFIDENT on the massive inherent $NPV Project Value, that they were far too bullish that they could finance the remaining capex from bonds / external borrowing ALONE. The BIG CHANGE since Sept, is that the SXX team have now been forced to accept that they need to share the $NPV Project Value prize out to some degree, by bringing in a major Strategic Partner, and giving them a major % shareholding position. This is a MAJOR CHANGE since Sept, so you know it is unfair to suggest that the SXX team have been talking to Strategic Partners "for many months now" - that is just not true. Instead, the truth is that SXX have now effectively put the offer of a major % shareholding out for competitive auction, and they have confirmed that MULTIPLE Partners (both equity and debt) are now studying the details of the situation, to determine if they now want a seat at the table. This whole situation really comes down to what you think the $NPV is of the entire mine project - and it is telling that those who think SXX shares are worthless, then go on to confirm that the mine project will be VERY ATTRACTIVE to SOMEBODY ELSE. Those 2 views just don't align. Either it is an attractive mine investment project, or it is not. You can't just mix & match on that. I am of the view that the SXX team have been very strong on the mechanics & details of the mine construction process, but have not had a balanced view on the financing plan. They are a new mining industry entrant, who has ended up holding the rights to the world's largest known deposit of polyalite, which everybody seems to now agree is of massive inherent value. Bringing in ONE other strategic partner, to provide both new equity funding and lend the WEIGHT of that partner reputation into the overall project mix, will secure those future cash flows with a more balanced split between equity and debt financing. And, linked to that same point, since the return to shareholders is heavily influenced by how far they can gear the $NPV value through EXTERNAL DEBT, any Strategic Partner that DOES come in now - say, $600 million in return for a 40% stake - we can be sure that Strategic Partner would then work flat out to help secure that the vast bulk of the remaining funding requirement DOES come from external borrowing, as it will then be in their own (share price) interest to see that happen. So getting a Strategic Investor now on board will serve to strengthen the SXX team's hand in MANY DIFFERENT AREAS, not just the provision of the $600 million. So, I ask again & again to those who think SXX shares are worthless - what do you feel the overall $NPV Project Value stands at today? In my view, you just can't keep dodging that fundamental question. The value estimate HAS to come first, before you can start plugging any positive or negative view on the future direction of the SXX share price. |
Posted at 17/11/2019 10:54 by holidayfunds8 Good to see some new (positive) posters this week. Some great posts (lendmeafiver etc.).The broad maths behind the Project NPV Values is understood, and it is obvious that you can work with assumptions which reduce the headline NPV well below the 13mtpa output results of $11-13 billion that SXX have again now headlined, and the mine project will still obviously fly. I think we are all interested in understanding the downside risks, especially in terms of the actual mine construction & operation and in the selling POLY4 in significant tonnage and at good prices. And, on both fronts, I do not detect much real doubt, in that mines like this can be successfully sunk and operated, and the BOULBY mine have effectively now proven that there is real demand for the product and prices still look solid. BUT I would be interested to see any considered & structured view, which explains why they feel the share price will now tend lower, but that needs to walk through the various key elements, most importantly: i) what do they think the overall mine project is worth, and why? ii) in light of that valuation, why they feel that no strategic partner will now want to stump up $600m now, to secure (say) a 15-40% stake in SXX; But all I am hearing from the bulk of those who are just blatantly talking the SXX share price into the ground are that, either: A. SXX needs a substantial amount of funding to survive - well, OK, that is indeed true but, hey sherlock, that has been the case from Day 1 - so one can only wonder what the previous 20-40 pence range share price was sustained by over more than a year; B. Why would any partner stump up $600m now for a % shareholding, when they can just wait for a few more months, wipe the existing share price out to NIL, and take over 100% control of the mine, and then complete the mine themselves and secure the entire Project $NPV cake for themselves - well, the simple reply to this often repeated mantra is that there is now MULTIPLE potential partners in the frame, and unless they can all collude together in some massive conspiracy in order to save themselves the existing market cap of just £240m, then they will be attracted to get involved in this opportunity, so they will compete to secure a good deal for themselves. So the potential partners are now assessing the situation NOW, to secure their seat at the table. It's the sheer scale of the Project $NPV that makes this now a reality. So, in my view, there is now a classic greed & fear battle now playing out with SXX, and key players in the City of London have their eye on this, because they know that the end game here is not Administration, but a share price in the very near future that is some way above 10 pence per share. And, if you hold that view, you want to now shake the SXX share price tree as hard as you can, and mop up as many SXX shares as you can in the 3-4 pence range, so that you can enjoy a nice Xmas (or New Year) celebration. If there was perfect knowledge in terms of who now holds all of the SXX shares, I think it would reveal a very telling story, but hey ho, whilst small shareholders like us do not have access to the latest & most accurate information, this is a single mine site now being built, with what appears to be a very excellent (and simple) end POLY4 product, so this is a situation where a small investor can do their own sums, and come to a view of what the SXX should now be worth. Don't forget, the current 3-4 pence level reflects the fact that there are still some marginal sellers who are willing to sell SXX shares at this level, but the volumes of late have still been very low in the grand scheme of things, so when the remaining stock of those marginal sellers dries up and / or those with short positions decide the chances of the share price going lower still is unlikely, then my bet is that the worm will turn, and turn quickly. David |
Posted at 25/10/2019 00:40 by holidayfunds8 Johnwise - many thanks, I had seen that. Plus the various Supply Agreements that have been announced.If it is widely accepted that polyhalite is really superior - at least for certain crop types / situations - to existing MOP products - then that is obviously good news. The BOULBY team (ICL website) have case studies / experience which seems to suggest the same. So you could say the available evidence maybe does suggest that polyhalite may indeed become a game changing product. On the Supply Agreements, it is not entirely clear to me if they are legally solid offtake commitments - we would really need to see the contract wording; but again, on the face of things, a vast tonnage looks to be secured. That then leaves the agreed pricing mechanism for those Supply Agreements, which is not at all clear to me. All in all, if we do look at things positively, then SXX could have $500 million at the Revenue less Opex level at 5mtpa. SXX might argue that the doubling up of capacity to 13.4mtpa would make for an eventual pithead contribution well north of $1bn. -------------------- IF the view is that the Supply Agreements and expected POLY4 pricing are sensible / accepted, then the SXX challenge moves to reassessing to see if there is any better project approach to get the main mine shafts completed & working as fast as possible. In terms of initial raw product transportation, BOULBY have their railway, and maybe an initial SXX solution may be possible without a $1.5bn tunnel? I would guess the SXX team have now secured some 'outside' mining experts to give them a second (and hopefully a third) opinion of possible alternatives, with a much greater (emergency) focus on getting the stuff out of the ground, in real volume, within a shorter timeline, with a reduced initial capex budget, accepting that the full $1.5bn MTS tunnel could be added later, once the scale of the incoming cash flow is proven. Anyway, certainly not one for widows & orphans. But the Review Update RNS - when it does eventually arrive, could be a good while yet - could prove to be interesting. However, for those of us outside of the inner circle here, we are really just gambling on a positive outcome at this stage, 'cos we are so far down the information curve. At best, this has been a case of very poor management and a case lesson in destroying shareholder value. And I am hopeful CF & team are now readily eating some chunks of humble pie, and acting in a less arrogant manner, as they now try to build some new relationships / alliances / partnerships, and get some new ideas, to secure at least the minimum of additional financing they need to get the mine up and running. |
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