Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[kreature] 14/2/2020 12:04

Is it really a good idea to pay 5.5 a share for a company that will probably be imminently out of cash ?

[the millipede] 14/2/2020 09:20

beeezz, If I am honest my gut says there are still substantial doubts about the size of the market for polyhalite, when you set it against the size this mine needs to be if it is to run commercially. I am not alone in believing this and have correspondence with relevant respected experts in agronomy/potash which has largely confirmed my concerns.

I think these doubts are a large part of the financing problems and I think it is possible that Ian Ashby is discounting this substantial risk (which he must be really, given the price he was willing to pay for his SXX shares) and that his judgement is therefore clouded. I think these doubts form a large part of "what we don't know."

I stand by my view that AA are overpaying for an "asset" that is virtually worthless, once a sensible risk premium is applied. Shareholders sometimes get lucky this way..... I can think of several companies that would have gone bust but for the naivete of an overenthusiastic buyer, from Quindell to Iberia, not to mention a few banks, and I think shareholders should grab this offer with both hands, before the whole thing goes up in smoke.... ATB TM

[beeezzz] 13/2/2020 22:15

The Millipede12 Feb '20 - 08:52 - 46825 of 46830

Your stating what we already know, its what we don't know is the problem, I accepted from day one raising huge funds from a position of weakness was very high risk.

Yet when you consider over $10tn of negative bonds in issue, finding £½bn should not have been beyond CF....

[sean33] 13/2/2020 21:10

If ANglo America are prepared after a lot of proding around what SXx has built and SXx books to put up a significant amount of money for an excellent money earning project then why can't SXx find a financial institution(s) to help SXx build their own multi billion pound company. The infrastructure is already at the point of no return and if there is someone (company as merger or royalties) to back an excellent management team and company that has the future in Britains own back yard. It would also be good labour as the North Sea depletes the labour force could be reinvested here

[kreature] 13/2/2020 09:40

More like, will they go deeper than 120 meters. It is what it is.

[tangerine_dream] 13/2/2020 08:52

Voted No Today.

[clotted cream] 13/2/2020 06:57

This was pretty much the most ambitious mining finance ever attempted: a huge multimillion requirement, for what was till Sirius came along an untested product, being produced in such large amounts that the current market would be more than swamped many times over.

.......
Totally agree millipede, I wonder how much influence has come from an AAL director Ian Ashby. To hold a couple million shares in SXX bought at decent prices does indicate he has bought into poly4 sales patter when due diligence stops investment by everyone else.

It does look like AAL will take their time doing a proper evaluation of the project in the next two years before fully committing.

Will be interesting for sure to see what they actually do with this mine. So far just regurgitation of the CF numbers and plan.

Will they go deeper than 1300 metres?

[y1phr1] 12/2/2020 13:03

Fraudsters.

[the millipede] 12/2/2020 08:52

"For somebody with his experience in funding mining projects it seems inconceivable..."

This was pretty much the most ambitious mining finance ever attempted: a huge multimillion requirement, for what was till Sirius came along an untested product, being produced in such large amounts that the current market would be more than swamped many times over.

I think if anyone could do it, following the success at Fortescue, it was these guys. But the idea that finance was easy, or inevitable, and that failure is somehow suspicious...... is about as wrong as it is possible to be. Finance has always, since at least the 2011 AGM, which I attended, been highlighted - not just by Sirius but by potential investors - as THE MAJOR RISK with this project.

And the fact is that AA will be able to achieve the finance if it wants to, at far lower interest rates than Sirius could ever have achieved, even had they been successful.

The idea that things might have worked out differently is lovely, but truth is the risk of shareholders not reaping the rewards here has always been very high indeed.

It is critical to accept all this because the only way to become a better investor is to take responsibility for your own investment decisions and losses, learn the right lessons, and move your money elsewhere. The aim, presumably, being to make more of a success of investing in the future. But as long as you continue to blame other people, and to see underhand motives where really there was only high risk, this can't happen and you will, in all likelihood, continue to lose money. Good luck all. TM

[kreature] 12/2/2020 03:20

Should I be shorting this? How much cash is left?

[beeezzz] 11/2/2020 22:19

Why did CF not get the £500m bond finance away, did he make much effort, or did he see an easy way out where he keeps his high paying job and none of the responsibilities..

For somebody with his experience in funding mining projects it seems inconceivable a deal could not have been achieved....

[11_percent] 11/2/2020 15:21

It was always a binary bet......on many occasions.

You have a binary bet now...…...5,5p or zero.

[dp1umb] 11/2/2020 10:16

Milli absolutely

[the millipede] 11/2/2020 09:20

Yes indeed. A massive load of people selling their shares on bad news about the financing drove the share price down to levels not seen since 2010.

Anyone without blinkers saw it coming.

Meanwhile Chris Fraser, despite now running a company soon to find itself without cash and in administration, has managed to persuade his mates in AA to bail shareholders out with a rather generous offer.

I get that the price is a disappointment to many of you but that is only because you have been unable or unwilling to see that this company was in real trouble and the equity hugely overvalued.

There is no con. No mismanagement. Just poorly understood risks that did not work out.

[beeezzz] 10/2/2020 20:51

It was mentioned that the share price had been driven down below the offer price, one wonders how long that offer has been on the table and not when announced....

All smells a bit fishy to me....CF should come clean he shafted many investors...

[the millipede] 10/2/2020 13:06

I find, in general, taxi drivers give better tips.

HTH

[fatnacker] 10/2/2020 07:21

Why on earth would you accept investment advice from someone conducting an induction on a building site?

[madprofessor44] 09/2/2020 01:17

This is a scandal and amounts to daylight robbery of all shareholders. The BOD are a total disgrace in the way that they have manipulated the share price downwards to force this deal with Anglo American. Once they take over this company they will restructure it to minimise jobs and pay levels and could well freeze the project for a while in order to cut costs. Never trust any American company to look after the employees.
Anglo desperately needs this asset because it needs to be seen to be a greener company rather than a coal miner.
The current shareholders should have been given a share in the new company since it is their hard earned cash that has kept Sirius going all along.
There is another better offer of funding on the table that they should take and would allow the current shareholders to continue sharing in the vast potential of this world class resource.
I shall not be voting for this offer since although I will lose a considerable amount I believe that we are being robbed and ripped off by the BOD and anglo American. They don't deserve to be running this company any more and I think we should all call their bluff and vote NO. The BOD have too much to lose by crashing this company so we need to give them a kicking. Get us a better deal!

[kreature] 08/2/2020 15:43

false market here in it ? artificial market at best ?