Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Sirius Minerals LSE:SXX London Ordinary Share GB00B0DG3H29 ORD 0.25P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.60p +2.40% 25.60p 25.50p 25.58p 25.66p 24.52p 24.52p 9,821,422 16:35:15
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Mining 0.0 -23.4 -0.9 - 1,142.69

Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

Showing 35176 to 35198 of 35200 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
25/2/2018
08:28
Aye goose ...work hours only...PPVN it 35p then ... great insight thanks
carla1
23/2/2018
23:11
Some good posts........going to take a bit to digest them.
11_percent
23/2/2018
22:07
mr.oz 23 Feb '18 - 16:43 - 31160 of 31166 0 0 0 And another quality post from muckshifter Best thread on SXX here, 11. ================= I also have a Tee Shirt: "Top Boy @ Top SXX Thread"
11_percent
23/2/2018
21:34
Via natdavis667 Latest video from Sirius Minerals - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PA6Hon2M0X4
johnwise
23/2/2018
21:23
Thanks PPVN.My previous post showing ignorance of the situation at least had some worth in inducing you to comprehensively inform we plebs of the effects of the bonds on share price until they get washed out of the system.
aspex
23/2/2018
20:18
The chat Fraser had with the analysts is informative in that he stated the 'pain-gain' structure remains unaltered and there is potential to complete the sink up to six months early: hxxp://siriusminerals.com/investors/investor-presentations/ One analyst asked about the lining regime, Fraser confirmed the same methods as proposed by AMC would be applied the the critical geo. P9 here: hxxp://siriusminerals.com/downloads/project-summary-document/ The signature by DMC is crucial to securing St2. That and the recent Progress update that confirmed delay but that it was far smaller than what was being speculated has changed the market mindset, as this now rapidly moves towards securing all funding needs. I expect a strong and quite rapid rise until it becomes apparent CBs are again being converted. With St2 (H2 this year) this all becomes different. But focus will then completely shift to sinking progress. Flagged by Fraser as commencing 12m hence from now. L.
lenses
23/2/2018
18:43
As the man says "Polly 4 will be a game changer" , as it contains 4 of the essential nutrients for healthy plant growth and is organic..Will become the first choice of farmers worldwide Sirius already has many agreements in place with companies around the world to buy its polyhalite (a premium version of potash that does more to boost crop yields than the basic version) at a price of $145 a tonne. Customers have agreed to buy 8.1m tonnes of the stuff every year at this price. The good news for Sirius and its shareholders is that at $145 a tonne, the company is booking a gross profit margin of nearly 400% on estimated production costs of $30 a tonne. Based on these figures, Sirius already has contracts in place giving the company an initial $1.2bn in annual revenue. To mine the required 8.1m tonnes, it would cost the company an estimated $243m at the price of $30 per tonne giving an estimated profit before depreciation, admin, interest and tax costs of just under $960m. Over the long term, the company is targeting production of 20m tonnes a year, giving an estimated profit of $2.4bn based on the above numbers. Cash cow These are just back-of-the-envelope estimates, but they show just how profitable Sirius could become. And even in the base case scenario of production of 8.1m tonnes per annum, the company could be a dividend champion. Excluding the non-cash cost of depreciation, assuming a 5% interest bill on $3bn borrowing (an extremely pessimistic scenario) and that Sirius’s management can keep corporate admin costs to under $100m per annum, the company is on track to report an estimated net profit of around $500m, or £380m per year. This estimate implies an earnings yield of around 29% on the firm’s current market capitalisation of £1.3bn.
johnwise
23/2/2018
17:12
Cartel still at work
carla1
23/2/2018
16:52
PPVN Many thanks for that I'm another one that will have to read it a few times to take it all in but my first thought is will 38p then mean a hell of a lot of profit taking and a quick fall ? Only thinking I would love to drop a few and pick back up cheaper but so far have been to afraid to trade. Like other posters here I always await your next post.Regards bolstaf
bolstaf
23/2/2018
16:43
And another quality post from muckshifter Best thread on SXX here, 11%
mr.oz
23/2/2018
16:16
PPVN Thank you,another insightful post. Much appreciated.
teataster
23/2/2018
16:12
Latest video from Sirius Minerals - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PA6Hon2M0X4
natdavis667
23/2/2018
16:06
Nice and gently does it!
christopher logsdon
23/2/2018
16:04
PPVN, certainly improved my understanding, at least with regards to the bits I understand! You have a great depth of knowledge, great to see and so glad that you come on this board from time to time and put us firmly in the picture. Certainly gives me the confidence to hold all me SXX, subject to no disasters! Thank you.
stoaty1
23/2/2018
15:03
janekane 23 Feb '18 - 14:15 - 31151 of 31154 0 0 0 11% what share are you referring to "best share on aim". ============= SXX of course......great share/company........always said it............does not mean it is not a scammm...
11_percent
23/2/2018
15:01
PPVN, Good post, will read it again later and ask some questions. Anyway, what your saying is, in summary.......the Hedge Fund scammmers (carla1 you know who you are) are scamming and manipulating the share price at 22p......AND.....you said "- If our shareprice continues to rise (which I expect it to, up until the mid-30s)," I think I have been saying for the last month 22p was the low........and it is going to 35p.........Jeesuss, this is hard work. ----------- Anyway.....I think you are being a bit modest, saying you are thinking of getting a Tee Shirt printed with "Top Boy" on it. I am reliably informed that you already have a raft of Tee Shirts with "Top Boy @ Top Hedge Fund" printed on them.........and wear them in the office every day as well as in bed at night........don't bother denying it.....we have the photos. And some posters on here were calling you a troll......such bad manners. ----------- mr.oz 23 Feb '18 - 13:17 - 31149 of 31153 0 0 0 excellent post PPVN , good to have you popping in occasionally thanks What a crawler that mr.oz is.....................how come lenses/GK and secretsq don't post stuff like this.
11_percent
23/2/2018
14:38
Awesome PPVN
carla1
23/2/2018
14:32
Excellent post PPVN. Thanks for taking the time to write that.
oggyrocks
23/2/2018
14:15
11% what share are you referring to "best share on aim"
janekane
23/2/2018
14:13
Wow what a post PPVN. Not saying I understand it all but if the essence is the price will increase then great. And here's me thinking it was down to the on site contractors in the pub on Monday night saying the trade trip with PM May to China was very fruitful regarding offtake deals. This would spread quickly in the local area whether its correct or not as I would guess 75% of locals hold shares, some have never had any before but its very much like the gran national, people bet on that who never normally bet. The mine has gripped the area in many positive ways. Most of the buy sales I saw this week seemed to be only small amounts which would fit with my naïve view point. Still what ever is the driver, onwards & upwards I say. Have a good weekend guys.
pugwash north
23/2/2018
13:17
excellent post PPVN , good to have you popping in occasionally thanks
mr.oz
23/2/2018
13:03
Hello again. Thought I’d check in again as I’ve seen a whole load of speculation and conjecture with regard to why this share is increasing in value. Want to just add a few points, clear a few misconceptions up, and hopefully generate some talking points with regard to the future of the company as there seems to be quite a lot of confusion as to market positioning (i.e. shorts / loan notes / potential increases etc etc). - The reason why we did not drop below 22p for more than a couple of hours over the past few months is thanks to the participants that have open short positions on our stock. This may seem strange, but the reality of the matter is that the funds that are currently short shares also own (whilst I cannot prove this, it can be taken as true) our convertible bonds. We know that the conversion strike price is $0.3076 therefore they have short sold for the past year, give or take, above this level. If the shareprice falls below the strike, they buy back in the market. They have open short interest of around 6-6.5% of the company, and with market volumes being what they are (i.e. quite small), it’s very unlikely that the price would decline below that level for any sustained period of time, notwithstanding some catastrophic cause for failure of the project. So thank those shorters that they are giving such support to the shareprice at 22p. - Yesterday the share price increased through the 100dma, and the 21dma crossed the 50dma. I don’t personally put much faith in moving averages (all they do is reflect price movements after they have happened), but technicians will tell you that this is super bullish and we are heading to the moon. Obviously. - Whilst our illustrious short shareholders have helped prevent the market price decline through $0.3076 (around 22p), they will obviously act as a drag above the strike price, or so you’d think. If you thought shares will be sold above $0.3076 you would however be wrong – this is because our loan notes are trading at $130.90 – a 30.9% premium to par, implying a current value per bond of $261,800, or a price assigned to each share of $0.4026 (28.8p) at today price. Its important to remember that this price will reflect the optionality of the loan notes up to their expiry in 2023, the 8% coupon, the cost it would otherwise take our short shareholders to buy back their open shorts, etc etc. What I’m attempting to illustrate is that whilst this company has a pretty straightforward share structure, its still complicated if you don’t know where to look, or what parts are relevant. - People were speculating (as everyone on small caps always seem to) about a takeover rumour. Its not happening, so forget that. The reason in general that takeovers happen is because its directed by CEOs who are incentivised by revenue growth of their respective companies. Sirius has no revenue generation, so there is no incentive for CEOs to take them over at this time. Cynical, but true. - The loan notes we know are unlikely to be converted below the high 20p’s, and there isn’t much market volume at the moment to sustain large sells to grow the short positions, but then the shareprice can’t really fall below 22p unless something terribly negative happens – so what’s been going on is that weak or impatient holders have sold up and moved on. The price should now increase until the pendulum reverses. - Sirius have the option to call the loan notes on 19th Dec in either 2018 or 2019, should their respective values increase to $350k. What does this mean? In essence, if our shareprice exceeds $0.538 (or thereabouts – with the built in optionality and duration, with the 8% coupon it’ll be slightly below that) or about 38.5p at todays FX, Sirius can simply pay back the principal and void all outstanding bonds if they wish. Well, if our shareprice gets to 38.5p Sirius will indeed wish to convert the bonds – this is because if we get to that price they would call the bonds, issue just over half the amount of equity, and pay back the holders with the cash generated from doing that. If the bonds are called, all that will happen is that they would all be converted into equity by the holders – Sirius will not pay back the principal on these, they will all be converted as I’ve previously said. - The convertible bonds are all going to be converted into equity. Every single one of them. 335 have been converted to date – each conversion is an RNS’able event, and a running tally is kept following each conversion, the last of which was on 16th June of last year. Current shorts account for a further 422 bonds (approx.). - If our shareprice continues to rise (which I expect it to, up until the mid-30s), further sales will be made by our bondholders and short interest will grow, further conversions will be made public, and up to the point that 1,700 of our bonds have been converted this roundabout will continue with our shareprice between 22p and about 35p, most likely in the low 30’s. Real selling pressure will occur again in the mid to high 30’s since it’ll cost an 8% coupon if the bonds get to $350k – but that’s a more complex dynamic and I won’t go into that. Once 1,700 bonds are converted, Sirius will most likely announce a clean up call and any remaining bonds will be converted into equity. - All of this is subject of course to good progress being made, further offtakes, etc etc. I personally think that once 7mtpa is achieved 38p will be breached and all loan notes called.
ppvn
23/2/2018
12:09
Shorts will be closed upon conversion of loan notes so will not impact shareprice
ppvn
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