Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[linton5] 26/11/2020 10:04

I make it at 324 it’s 8.65% divi for 1year then improving what’s not to like here 🌻

[edmundshaw] 26/11/2020 10:02

Thanks muscletrade. All very pithy and concise.

[muscletrade] 26/11/2020 09:55

So in summary (and please feel free to correct me),

1.It is crystal clear that France Poland the remains of Italian biz and joint ventures will be sold.
2. proceeds from Singapore Indonesia and Italian biz will be sufficient to get to debt reduction target.Therefore cash from these france/poland etc biz's could in theory all be returned to shareholders. details TBA
3. Rebased dividends are based on Core biz and does not include income from biz that will de sold.
4. As far as I can see they already have excess capital of almost £1.8B(before any disposal income.So this in theory should/could be added to the proceeds from france poland etc.
5.In conference call they would not commit to preference over special divs v buybacks.

[muscletrade] 26/11/2020 09:40

buybacks v special dividends....they not committing either way.

[mo123] 26/11/2020 09:40

Decent outlook and sustainable div over 6%. Maybe international income funds will consider investing in AV. when brexit uncertainty is out of the way?
Cheers for the dates Burbelly.

[muscletrade] 26/11/2020 09:36

When you do the sums Singapore/ italy sales will do the trick in reducing debt so in theory France Poland and remaining italy and joint venture sales should all be returned to shareholders although there will be redemptions coming up as well which will use up some capital. They are being a bit shy on the timeline and amount of cash returns as they have to get the disposals done first.

[woodhawk] 26/11/2020 09:34

Many thanks for the divi dates, Burbelly!

[muscletrade] 26/11/2020 09:29

capital returns. No commitment on timeline but they will return excess capital after debt ratio returned to 30%. Opportunities to return capital in 21 and 22. could be done through capital return and/or reducing share count (buy backs)

[woodhawk] 26/11/2020 09:26

And pay date for January?

[muscletrade] 26/11/2020 09:25

In the conference call they have explained that the rebased dividend is based upon core cashflow.They have provided slide for that too.

[eurofox] 26/11/2020 09:13

Do we know yet the ex-div date for the Jan payment?

[karv1] 26/11/2020 09:13

jubberjim I totally agree, today was a chance for AB/board and it was blown badly. Instead of getting 31p 31p 31p 31p 31p over the next 5 years costing AV 1.2 billion out of the 1.8 billion profit after tax. Instead, we are going to get 21p 22p 23p 24p 25p and some extra returns if we are lucky with a leap of faith. I know people say this was unrealistic but no one has said why. It is covered 1.5 times. Why was the change needed? For every 100 million of profits that could grow in the future that we lose on asset sales to pay down the debt, we save like 50 million on interest payment to the point where they say we to rebase the dividend due to lower-income.on our core 3 locations.
Total madness in my view.

[edmundshaw] 26/11/2020 08:53

I glossed over that "core cash generation". Good point. Thank you cjac.

[cjac39] 26/11/2020 08:51

thats not what they are saying i think ES

"our sustainable dividend is anchored to our core cash generation"

excess cashflows will benefit from

cost savings
reduced debt costs
return of excess capital abvoe 180%

[jubberjim] 26/11/2020 08:50

Here comes the new boss .Same as the old boss
This sorry bunch of charlatans just don t get it

When they took away that final dividend they took away an income stream from lots of individuals who were relying on that income to supplement their way/standard of living

There is no hint of an apology anywhere in this latest missive

Neither is there any hint of redress

I would imagine that the pay and benefits of AB and her craven cronies have suffered no substantial hit due to their blatant disregard for shareholders

After this latest debacle I would recommend to sack the entire board of incompetent risible ingrates

Get a BOD who understand the needs of their shareholders and their need for equitable returns.

[edmundshaw] 26/11/2020 08:48

Return of capital is perhaps built into the new dividend... Clearly, group turnover and profits will reduce as "non-core" businesses are shed. A capital return and no reduction in dividend would then represent a good performance - or am I being too optimistic? Will the dividend be re-rebased??

[cjac39] 26/11/2020 08:45

"return of excess capital above 180% - potential lower share-count"

makes sense its share buybacks. there will be lots of lumpy amounts arriving at uncertain times so they might set up a programme

i think the maths is about right. selling 30% of earnings means rebasing the divi down to about 20p from 30p. also debt reduction needs to increase to keep at 30% leverage

cost savings look good too as do organics

so div yld will be 6-7% today but rising as they reduce share count for sure

[woodhawk] 26/11/2020 08:35

No one is likely to 'get rich quick' in Aviva, or any other company of this size. Good solid divi going forward, with prospect of some specials will do me fine.

[linton5] 26/11/2020 08:34

You’ve got me for a while eurofox 🦊🤟🤪hahahaha have a good day all,I’m stalking bats,rcdo

[wskill] 26/11/2020 08:34

No complaints with AB but it is only a matter of time now that another company takes over these assets she is only doing what PE will do with these assets .
Do think its about time Aviva was taken over as they are incapable of growing their assets and have proved this time and again cannot see AB making any difference as it seems the prevailing culture in Aviva always wins in the end .

God forbid if they go on the acquisition trail they might as well throw the cash out of headquarters windows .

[eurofox] 26/11/2020 08:31

Hopefully now we will be shot of some of the get rich quick merchants

[eurofox] 26/11/2020 08:30

Decent sustainable dividend in today's environment and the prospect of further return of capital - I did say some of you had unrealistic expectations.

[burbelly] 26/11/2020 08:25

So no special till 2022, did I read that right?