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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aviva Plc | AV. | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 535.00 | 00:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 535.00 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| LIFE INSURANCE |
| Announcement Date | Type | Currency | Dividend Amount | Ex Date | Record Date | Payment Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01/2025 | Final | GBP | 0.238 | 10/04/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 22/05/2025 |
| 15/11/2023 | Interim | GBP | 0.119 | 05/09/2024 | 06/09/2024 | 17/10/2024 |
| 15/11/2023 | Final | GBP | 0.223 | 11/04/2024 | 12/04/2024 | 23/05/2024 |
| 09/11/2022 | Interim | GBP | 0.111 | 24/08/2023 | 25/08/2023 | 05/10/2023 |
| 09/11/2022 | Final | GBP | 0.207 | 30/03/2023 | 31/03/2023 | 18/05/2023 |
| 02/03/2022 | Interim | GBP | 0.103 | 18/08/2022 | 19/08/2022 | 28/09/2022 |
| 02/03/2022 | Final | GBP | 0.147 | 07/04/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 19/05/2022 |
| 16/12/2020 | Interim | GBP | 0.0735 | 26/08/2021 | 27/08/2021 | 07/10/2021 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 26/2/2025 15:34 by 1robbob 2023 Dividend Actual 33.4p2024 Dividend Forecast 35.7p +6.9% 2025 Dividend Forecast 37.5p +5.0% 2026 Dividend Forecast 40.1p +6.9% .....I expect a final dividend for 2024 of 23.8p The declared dividend policy is to grow the total cost of dividends by mid single digit % per annum. Thus the actual dividend per share % increase, will be enhanced (over mid single digit %) by any reduction in the number of shares outstanding resulting from Share Buybacks However for 2025. 1) As a result of the DLG aquisition there will be a considerable increase in the number of shares in issue and hence the total dividend cost. So for this year only the dividend per share will be increased by mid single digit % 2) There will be no Share Buyback, to be resumed in 2026 The BOD is only interested in regular repeatable returns to shareholders. So Special Dividends are highly unlikely |
Posted at 17/1/2025 18:30 by xtrmntr ??????Shares in Aviva (AV.) and Direct Line (DLG) have travelled in opposite directions over the past four years. While Aviva is up by 50 per cent, its FTSE 250 rival has fallen by almost a fifth. The discrepancy is even more extreme when dividends are taken into account, given Direct Line suspended payouts in early 2023.The reasons behind the companies' divergent fortunes have been well-documented. While Aviva has slimmed down and refocused under the direction of chief executive Amanda Blanc, Direct Line was caught out by inflation and forced to issue a series of profit warnings in 2022 (it had not adequately reflected rising repair and replacement costs in its motor insurance premiums). After a boardroom shake-up, it is now in the early stages of a turnaround.What were once two separate stories, however, have merged into one. Aviva made a bid for Direct Line last month and, just before Christmas, the deal was finalised. The £2.7bn takeover is expected to close by the middle of 2025 after it has been scrutinised by regulators and the competition watchdog. Shareholders on both sides are now asking the same question: is this a good idea? A sector giant The market was generally enthusiastic about the terms of the deal. Aviva will pay 275p for every Direct Line share, split equally between cash and newly issued stock. This represents a 73 per cent premium to Direct Line's undisturbed share price, and is more than Belgian insurer Ageas (BE:AGS) offered last March.Many Direct Line shareholders will be feeling relieved. Morningstar analyst Henry Heathfield pointed out that the current financial plans for the company are "ambitious", and not guaranteed to be sustainable. "This is a highly competitive industry where Direct Line is up against a highly effective incumbent and has been losing market share as a standalone," he said.For Aviva, the purchase of Direct Line feeds into a strategy that it has been pursuing for several years: to shift away from life insurance and towards 'capital light' work such as motor and home insurance. This is a trend that is occurring "across Europe", according to Panmure Liberum analyst Abid Hussain. This is because the market values general insurers more highly than life insurers. The latter must be able to meet big payment obligations as soon as a contract starts, but they typically receive premiums in instalments over the course of multiple years. On day one, therefore, there is a capital strain and the payback period is lengthy. Motor and home insurance work can be more volatile, but returns tend to arrive faster.There are plenty of other things in favour of the deal. For starters, the combined company will dominate the sector. UBS estimates that Aviva will have a 22 per cent share of the personal lines market after the takeover, compared with Admiral's 13 per cent.Costs are also set to be slashed. Aviva is targeting savings of £125mn within three years of the deal completing, in addition to the £100mn of savings Direct Line is on track to deliver by the end of 2025. Head office and "senior management functions" will be the biggest source of savings, with up to 2,300 jobs expected to be shed. IT platforms will also be consolidated and there should be "increased efficiency" from combining insurance operations. Analysts have flagged "good similarities" between the two companies, noting that they both operate their own garage repair networks, and that combined data and technology could improve underwriting.This clearly isn't risk-free, and will be expensive at first. Aviva expects to incur £250mn of one-off integration costs, three-quarters of which will fall within the first two years. However, even including restructuring costs, management thinks the deal will increase profits in the first full year after completion, and deliver around 10 per cent earnings per share accretion once the cost savings have been realised.Rethinking investor payouts There are more than cost synergies to consider. In the insurance sector, companies have solvency capital requirements to ensure they can meet their obligations to policyholders.The level of capital insurers must hold is dictated by a range of factors, but expanding into new business lines or geographies can reduce the burden. At the half-year mark, for instance, Aviva's solvency capital requirement decreased by £400mn to £7.8bn because it had diversified away from life insurance policies. Adding Direct Line to the group is expected to help this further. "The capital benefit from diversification that will emerge is significant," chief financial officer Charlotte Jones told investors in December.Aviva itself didn't give concrete predictions, but analysts at the Bank of America (BofA) estimate that the deal could free up around £500mn-£600mn of capital.BofA described this as the "cherry on top" of the Direct Line acquisition, which could ultimately fuel higher shareholder payouts. The bank thinks Aviva will return about a third of its market cap between 2025 and 2027, culminating in a 13 per cent yield in 2027, when both dividends and buybacks are taken into account. "This is among the most attractive levels of capital return in the sector," it said.Management is certainly sounding confident for now. It has upgraded its dividend policy and, having bought back £300mn of shares in 2023 and again last year, is set to announce an even bigger buyback in 2026 to reflect the higher share count (it won't be buying back shares this year, given it needs cash for the acquisition).Since income is the big appeal of UK insurance stocks, this paints a compelling picture. It is important to remember, though, that mega deals are difficult to pull off."We don't typically like mergers and acquisitions and mainly view them as value-destructive," said Morningstar. The ratings agency is feeling optimistic in spite of this but only time will tell if it was right to let its guard down. |
Posted at 29/12/2024 09:43 by 1robbob fenners66Last words on this, please They could not use 'increase in dividend cost' for the basis of the 2025 dividend as the cost of the 2025 dividend is hugely inflated, over 2024, by the issue of shares to DLG shareholders. So they used % increase in dividend per share to make it crystal clear (to most of us!!) that AV shareholders dividend outlook would not be effected. They then revert to 'increase dividend cost' in 2026 to emphasise to shareholders that in the event that share buybacks reduce the number of shares in issue, the dividend per share will be increased pro rata |
Posted at 28/12/2024 12:42 by 1robbob I would of thought it was pretty obviousDividend per share: the total of the interim and final dividend paid on each ordinary share held Total Dividend Cost: the sum total of the amount of dividends paid in aggregate. ie dividends per share x the number of shares on which the dividends were paid There is no way on earth that AV shareholders would approve the deal if there was to be a cut in their dividend |
Posted at 28/12/2024 12:13 by yump I’m inclined to concur.I decided to look up what per share means. But First of all I tried to understand what post completion means. It means after completion, which I’m guessing means when the deal has been fully done, finished, the businesses are one, totally combined. Per share is a little more complicated. I think it means an amount of something for each share in existence. I think the something is the total amount of money the business has for dividends to be given to shareholders. So, going out on a limb a bit, I think they will pay a fraction of that total for every share I hold and I think they get that amount by dividing that total dividend by the number of shares. Its a bit tricky to grasp but I think that is all “post completion” as explained in my first paragraph. So, its a bit of a flyer but I’m not expecting a dividend cut. Looking back there appears to be a clue in the paragraph from AV that mentions total dividend, dividend per share and post completion at the same time. |
Posted at 23/12/2024 09:56 by 1robbob I think the last few posts (pOpper,Glavey and fenner66) are a little off beamThe 2024 dividend is uneffected and obviously not available to DLG shareholders They have said that the 2025 dividend per share will be mid single digit % higher than the 2024 dividend per share. ....The 2025 total cost of dividend is then the rebased level Thus the 2026 dividend will be + mid single digit % higher in the total dividend cost |
Posted at 23/12/2024 09:06 by 1robbob I am trying to decode the AV statement re their dividends and Share Buybacks going forwardThey are saying today in the DLG document ...'Enhancing shareholder distributions: as part of its commitment to shareholder returns, Aviva currently intends to de: clare a mid-single digit percentage uplift in the dividend per share following Completion. Aviva further intends to maintain the current guidance of mid-single digit growth in the cash cost of the dividend from this rebased level.' I take this to read 2024 Dividend: +7% ie mid single digit increase in the DIVIDEND CASH COST so 5% + benefit of Share Buybacks reducing number of shares in issue 2025 Dividend: +5% ie mid single digit increase in the DIVIDEND PER SHARE 2026 Dividend: +7% ie reverting to mid single digit increase in the DIVIDEND CASH COST so 5% + benefit of Share Buybacks reducing number of shares in issue I think this part of the DLG Announcement clearly indicates NO Share Buy-back in 2025 |
Posted at 13/12/2024 16:14 by muscletrade Since two major UK insurance companies announced takeover terms on 6 December – a “possible̶DLG 0.65% by Aviva AV. 0.79% becoming a full offer by Christmas – it is curious how Direct Line shares are trading at 247p, a 10.5% discount to the offer price. Is this a fair reflection of risks surrounding a deal consummating, or an opportunity to buy into or raise one’s holding in Aviva by discounted means? Aviva has been a popular share for income-seekers, and consensus forecasts imply an 8% dividend yield with roughly 1.2x earnings cover. Mind, its free cash-flow profile – what counts most for payouts – has seen historic volatility. Invest with ii: Top UK Shares | Share Tips & Ideas | Cashback Offers Recommended terms are 275p per Direct Line share comprising 129.7p in cash (Aviva can fund from internal resources) and 0.2867 new Aviva shares, also a dividend up to 5p from Direct Line. A dividend may be necessary anyway if the competition regulator much delays completion of the deal. With Aviva trading at 475p, the share-based element values Direct Line at 136p, hence around 5p of the possible offer discount is explained by Aviva falling from 483p since the news broke: Aviva chart performance Source: TradingView. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Otherwise, that still leaves the discount just over 10% as if the market sees risks. The chances of Aviva backing off look low Aviva would have modelled its financial resource within a range of possible offers before it initially mooted a 250p per Direct Line share on 28 November. Digital Line Insurance Group performance chart Source: TradingView. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Given Direct Line floated at 175p in 2012, it would seem its strategy and execution has been lacking, although there have been substantial dividends (including special payouts) over the years. Direct Line Insurance Group - financial summary Year end 31 Dec 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Turnover (£ million) 3,349 3,253 3,321 3,496 3,427 3,284 3,202 3,230 3,229 3,602 Operating margin (%) 13.6 15.4 10.4 15.2 16.8 15.4 14.0 13.6 -7.0 3.8 Operating profit (£m) 457 500 345 531 577 506 447 441 -226 137 Net profit (£m) 373 580 279 434 472 420 367 344 -232 223 Reported EPS (p) 26.0 27.6 20.2 31.5 32.9 29.2 25.5 24.1 -19.1 15.9 Normalised EPS (p) 26.7 26.5 24.1 33.6 33.0 29.9 28.2 30.0 -19.1 15.7 Earnings per share growth (%) 1.8 -0.8 -8.9 39.4 -1.7 -9.4 -5.7 6.4 -163 176 Operating cashflow/share (p) 51.4 37.6 62.4 39.6 35.6 33.4 42.5 32.4 61.6 30.9 Capex/share (p) 13.9 9.9 9.5 6.9 11.3 13.6 11.7 10.2 9.2 30.4 Free cashflow/share (p) 37.5 27.7 53.0 32.7 24.3 19.9 30.8 22.2 52.4 0.5 Ordinary dividend per share (p) 12.6 13.8 14.6 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.7 7.6 4.0 Covered by earnings (x) 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1 -0.6 4.0 Special dividend per share (p) 14.0 27.5 10.0 15.0 8.3 0.0 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash (£m) 880 964 1,166 1,359 1,154 949 1,220 956 1,004 1,772 Net debt (£m) -284 -381 -571 -523 -319 -126 -153 -897 -939 -1,584 Net assets/share (p) 205 191 185 198 187 193 200 194 176 183 Source: historic company REFS and company accounts Aviva will have judged a takeover as strategically sound and earnings-enhancing, with scope to take out costs and achieve synergies. Raising its offer terms may also include an aspect of hope that more can be released from Direct Line’s claims reserves and which may only involve tweaking the discount rate applied. But this is going to need closer examination – as is likely happening right now. Even in a worst-case scenario of skeletons, there would seem more likely a modest adjustment on price. Most Direct Line holders will be even more relieved finally to have a chance to move on. Sector Screener: more potential for Rolls-Royce and BAE shares? IAG and easyJet among airline share tips for 2025 A latest note from broker Jefferies cites their concern that Direct Line’s IT systems may be problematic to integrate after a recent investment programme. “It is unclear which system Aviva ought to decommission; however, as Aviva’s book is performing better, it might be safer to write off Direct Line’s investment and move that book to Aviva, even if the systems are older.” All-considered as to execution risk, I see this favouring Aviva consummating a deal. Its recent strategy has been to divest non-core and overseas interests, but the fact its shares are priced for an 8% yield suggests the market sees few capital growth prospects. A substantive UK acquisition starts to address that. Aviva - financial summary Year-end 31 Dec 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Operating profit (£m) 1,833 2,374 1,734 3,916 1,895 877 -2,138 1,793 Net profit (£m) 703 1,497 1,568 2,548 2,798 1,966 -1,051 1,085 Reported EPS (p) 19.9 45.0 49.7 82.4 43.7 8.3 -34.7 37.7 Normalised EPS (p) 23.6 46.6 48.0 83.4 47.2 8.2 -34.6 37.8 Earnings per share growth (%) -46.5 97.1 3.2 73.6 -43.4 -82.7 Return on capital (%) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 -0.7 0.5 Operating cashflow/share (p) 153 249 177 200 -82.8 7.4 508 -99.6 Capex/share (p) 6.0 5.7 5.0 4.0 4.6 3.6 3.2 12.8 Free cashflow/share (p) 147 243 172 196 -87.4 3.8 505 -112 Dividend per share (p) 30.7 36.1 39.5 20.4 27.6 29.0 31.0 33.4 Covered by earnings (x) 0.6 1.3 1.3 4.0 1.6 0.3 -1.1 1.1 Cash (£m) 29,834 13,377 8,355 11,171 10,345 12,485 22,505 17,273 Net debt (£m) -17,858 -2,360 2,359 -190 780 -5,141 -14,435 -9,906 Net assets (£m) 16,803 16,969 16,558 17,008 19,354 16,238 9,704 9,082 Net assets/share (p) 544 557 559 571 649 569 348 334 Source: historic company REFS and company accounts. Jefferies regard Aviva shares as “inexpensive below a 10x 2025 P/E”, hence reiterate “buy” and raise their target price to 560p from 550p. If a fair view, then it sweetens the exit for Direct Line shareholders, hence intrigue whether to add currently. There must, however, be two valuation scenarios based on whether or not the takeover happens, given Aviva’s motivation to do so is based on enhancing earnings. Longevity of regulatory examination is key uncertainty Some Direct Line holders argue the 5 December approval by the Competition & Markets Authority (CMA) of the takeover of Three by Vodafone Group VOD 0.41% , implies this insurance takeover is most likely to happen. Estimates differ but combining Aviva with Direct Line could possibly result in a 20% share of the UK motor insurance market, yet the CMA waved through Vodafone and Three with 20% and 15% of the UK mobile market respectively. That will, however, still lag Virgin 02 with 38%, if ahead of BT Group BT.A 0.27% with 27%. Unpacking some of the contrasting claims: Data from Confused.com, a UK financial services comparison platform, suggests a combination would result in a market share over 20% in motor insurance - Aviva currently with 11% and Direct Line just over 10.2% - ahead of Admiral Group ADM 0.65% with 11% then Hastings just below 7%. Shareholders have to hope Confused is indeed so. On 2 December, Statistica cited Admiral leading with 13% and Aviva/Direct Line combined accounting for 12%. The top 10 motor insurers in the UK hold 75% of the total UK market. It would seem the difference is based on Statistica using first-half-2024 figures for motor premiums. Apparently, the combination will lead to the UK’s largest home insurer. What the future might hold for BT and Vodafone shares Stockwatch: why I worry about a shift in takeover trends Precedent exists: when Aviva initiated its £460 million purchase of AIG’s UK protection side, the CMA investigated how the merged entity would become the biggest operator with a share over 20%, ahead of Legal & General and various others. It approved the combination given the two businesses’ services were different enough to have separate rivals. Yet with Aviva/Direct Line, both target the mass market and tend to sell direct rather than use intermediaries. So, it rather depends how the CMA wants to regard a strengthening of such approach. The competition regulator is accountable to government where a House of Commons report has cited UK car insurance prices rising by 82% from May 2021 to June 2024; although Covid lockdowns did reduce premiums shortly beforehand. I treat this inflation claim with a pinch of salt for it may not be wholly real if based on renewal prices. All insurers seem to try and fleece customers this way, but if you compare the market and go back negotiate, they usually cave in. Not surprisingly then, Aviva is already pitching that the takeover will create efficiencies able to lower premium costs. From customer review boards on Direct Line, some people do protest at high prices/increases while others praise its customer service. Does economic growth imply more or less competition regulation? Optimists on this takeover also cite the CMA’s CEO declaring last month it “should play a critical part in the success of the government’s growth mission”. Following the US election result, it is easy to assume this means a loosening of regulation, the platform on which Donald Trump stood, his strong victory prompting US stocks to surge. What is tipped to be the best asset class of 2025? Sign up to our free newsletter for investment ideas, latest news and award-winning analysis Yet the CMA boss meant competition as an “engine for unlocking opportunities and growth...we must stay true to our mandate from Parliament: to promote competition, for the benefit of consumers”. That implies a toughening of approach, at least to examine change where it creates greater concentration of power. The CMA launched its investigation into Vodafone/Three on 26 January. While the outcome could be similar here, there is an obvious time value for uncertainty. Double-digit discount does make sense You can take your view, but reasons exist why this takeover – even if formally proposed before the Christmas deadline – could drag on. Direct Line shares may respond positively, but I would expect at least a 5% discount to offer terms to continue. If and when the CMA shows its hand, this valuation gap could widen again. Obtaining Aviva shares still appears an attractive prospect. Recent consensus forecasts (which ought not to factor in the takeover) imply its forward earnings growth prospect divided by the price/earnings ratio is 0.7, hence a “buy” according to this PEG ratio. Mind, these numbers may benefit from recent underlying momentum; if that is sustainable then why assume the risk of a big takeover? Reasons therefore exist to continue holding both shares. As to any “arbitrageR Edmond Jackson is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of interactive investor. |
Posted at 20/9/2024 17:57 by xtrmntr Three is no doubt that insurance companies are nowadays one of the most important dividend shares for income.They are attractive not because of the volume of dividends they rarely feature in the top 10 payers on that metric, and the 50 per cent cut flagged by Vodafone earlier this year is, on its own, bigger than the entire closely watched payout for Legal & General (LGEN).Interest instead stems from the relative cheapness of their shares. The attraction of inflation-beating yields is hard to match of the top six highest yielders in the FTSE 100, four are insurance companies, according to FactSet data.The question is whether those high yields are truly reflective of the level of risk that shareholders take when buying the shares. As ever, some are safer than others. Aviva (AV.) is an interesting example of a popular high yielding insurance share that reflects one basic truth: it is the largest insurance company in the UK to have comprehensively gotten its house in order.What was once a sprawling group built up by a seemingly arbitrary series of bolt-on acquisitions has been slimmed down to focus on the UK, Ireland and Canada, with clear delineation between the life, motor and personal insurance lines.The company's current health is also driven by the fact that costs have been tightly controlled at the same time as demand for annuities has picked up significantly. Aviva will write £7bn-£8bn of bulk annuities business this year, as defined benefit pension schemes' funding levels improve, allowing companies to offload future liabilities to insurers and simplify their own operations.But the most important reason for Aviva's popularity with retail investors is that the current management, led by chief executive Amanda Blanc, has also kept its word to shareholders when it comes to payouts. After raising £7.5bn from business sales, the company paid out £4bn of capital to shareholders by the middle of 2022.Fulfilling this commitment is no guarantee that dividends will continue to grow over the next couple of years, but current forecasts are for dividend growth in "mid-single digits" this year, or 5 per cent in old money, with a 7 per cent growth rate forecast for the following period, according to predictions by broker Berenberg. That translates into a current dividend yield of around 7 per cent, rising to 8 per cent at a price-to-book value of just 1.3 times. One reason to be cautious is that Aviva's operating profit target of £2bn by 2026 could be quite punchy if premium rates start to moderate, in which case the annuities business would have to take up more of the slack. Currently, general insurance premiums are forecast to rise at around 9 per cent for next year. What might be needed to ensure the future health of the dividend is for Aviva to smooth out its free cash flow. This has been exceptionally lumpy in the recent past, partly because of asset sales, but it is notable that the company is forecast to book cumulative cash flow growth of 12 per cent over the next two years. This seems to underline the fact that simplifying the business and focusing on what the company does best will prove profitable for income investors.Dividend policy: Cash cost of the dividend to grow by mid-single digitsYield: 7.2 per centPayment: Semi-annually, in sterlingLast cut: 2020AlternativeLegal & General surprised the market earlier this summer not via a 5 per cent increase in the dividend this year, topped up by share buybacks, but with forecasts that the two years through to 2027 would see a reduced 2 per cent annual increase, buybacks again substituted to try to make up the shortfall. It was the first substantive act from new chief executive António Simões and showed management's determination to improve LGEN's core operating profits. Income investors may not quibble too much about this change of direction given the forward dividend yield remains well above 9 per cent. |
Posted at 15/8/2024 08:13 by kenmitch Note the different share price response to the good Results from AVIVA yesterday and Admiral today. AVIVA share price flat. Admiral share price up 8%.Why the big difference? Is it perhaps because Admiral have spent excess cash on the genuine reward of a special dividend on top of the increased ordinary dividend. I.e investors get the big bonus of real cash. AVIVA prefer to waste the spare cash on buybacks where unfortunately investors don’t get any real cash. RIO current dividend yield is 6% but a couple of years ago they rewarded investors with 20% dividend via big special dividends on top of their ordinary dividends. Fortunately more and more UK Companies are now paying special dividends instead of buying back. e.g Big Mining Companies like RIO now always go for big special dividends in the good years. Previously they spent multiple £billions on buybacks…..onl |
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