Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[anthony100] 26/11/2020 11:21

I hold this share currently. Having bought at a reasonable cost it shows a profit plus yield.

Having said all that Aviva never fails to fall into any hole in the road.

Working for AV investors I wrote for what it is worth the ICAAPs and Solvency 2 stuff for that unit. Tt has always been run by mediocre jobsworths to.spin out their time doing nothing useful. Remember Moss? He was booted out for fornicating in the Office. Best work he accomplished.

Getting back to the share...in a low interest environment where one can borrow for 3 per cent over MTNs what is the point of reducing leverage? The explanation escapes me.

It smells strange. The units sold produce better returns than that.

Give the money back to me. I am confident enough that 3 percent plus is achievable by even this writer.

This should be a goldmine. A tender offer at 400p would suit me just fine.

[woodhawk] 26/11/2020 11:20

Linton5, yes - there's the 'third' divi I mentioned - so over next 12 months circa 8.5% return from here.

[karv1] 26/11/2020 11:04

If nothing was sold and we got 31p per year that is covered by profit for the next 5 years ie 50% return and I am guessing we would have gone up 10%+ today plus more over a shorter time. Is the new plan going to make me 50% back in 5 years and match the share price that the 9.5% yield would have made me? I have my doubts.

[muscletrade] 26/11/2020 11:01

I agree that they could have afforded to pay the 2019 top up.

Second guessing, I can only think that if they had the headlines would have read "Aviva pays 2019 dividends but cuts 2020" rather than the more benign Aviva confirms the 2020 rebased div.
Computers read the word "cut" and share price opens 7% down.

Just a thought.

[spcecks] 26/11/2020 11:01

Thanks Spud.

[wba1] 26/11/2020 10:55

Thanks muscletrade - just picked up your update after my last post. I am fine with holding this share which will recover over 400 in the next year, but the Q3 report (whilst ok) could have been received better with some very small tweaks.

[spud] 26/11/2020 10:55

Spcecks - Yes, that's my reading. spud

[wba1] 26/11/2020 10:52

The lack of a 2019 top up is poor optics. Better to improve the optics (in this case). A slightly lower special (at a later date) would not be noticed. And I say this as someone mainly interested in the growth rather than income.

[spcecks] 26/11/2020 10:49

Am I right in thinking we will get three dividends paid next year a 7p in January 14p in March and another one about August.

[muscletrade] 26/11/2020 10:48

@wba1"This part of the release is stunning in its vacuity". France issues were raised in conference call, they seemed relatively relaxed about it but should be in the transcript.

I agree that it is surprising that they did not top up 2019 div especially considering they already hold surplus capital. This was also raised in conference call but the answer was need to be cautious in turbulent time etc blah blah, not that convincing.

@kar1 not sure why you depressed as Aviva worth considerably more than share price today.(roughly double).
The maths will work out in the end although we will need to see progress on disposals.

[moontheloon] 26/11/2020 10:42

Wished I'd waited till today to buy... But buy I would. Sp going forward and specials...

[jomac2412] 26/11/2020 10:41

Running comparisons between Aviva and Lgen through Stockopedia Aviva comes out as the clear winner on almost all metrics' case of Lgen being overvalued in comparison to Aviva ?

[moontheloon] 26/11/2020 10:38

I think they know a biggish special divi is due.. Hence the no 2019 top up

[karv1] 26/11/2020 10:33

I feel depressed I had high hopes for AV while all my other targets went up more than AV I kept the faith and feel let down and I think the markets feel the same way it was not a terrible update but it, not a great one either. If we had a different approach we could have been up 10% today. I need a suggestion for a good dividend stock, I am thinking maybe HSBC again any thoughts?
yearly 6.6% I think there are better ones out there at the moment.

[wba1] 26/11/2020 10:30

First takes;

* 2020 div and forward is fine. Slightly surprised they did not top up the 2019 dividend to the 2020 level.
* GI is making money at present judging by a £65m reduction in net Covid cost in one quarter - and Q4 should have at least as big an effect. I would love to see their claims triangles (which will be in the annual report) as I suspect the real Q3 benefit is >£100m and they have stuffed IBNR and case reserves.
* An odd error in France. I hope they are auditing the other operations as this should not have happened.
* The comments about remediating personal lines premiums are good for the likes of Direct Lines and Sabre. I will watch their volumes and results with interest.
* How much is the allowance for credit migration (which is yet to appear). Is this realistic or another piggy bank?
* France exclusivity went over 3 weeks ago. What is the current position? Surprised no comment on whether discussions reopened to other bidders and, if so, whether such are taking place. This part of the release is stunning in its vacuity.

[riverman77] 26/11/2020 10:27

LGEN yields around 6.3%, but seeing much stronger growth and higher ROE, so don't see good case for owning AV as well.

[muscletrade] 26/11/2020 10:23

Trying to firm up what is the true valuation of Aviva,

In the conference call they have confirmed that the new div of 21p is based on the smaller core business.
currently that represents a yield of 6.4%, but the core biz will be structurally stronger(less debt) and more sound, albeit slow growing and stable divis. therefore a 5% div would be more appropriate.
A 5% yield is equivalent to a share price of 420 per share.
So arguably Core biz is worth 420/share.
On top of that is the cash value of France Poland rest of Italy and joint ventures plus current excess capital.
So one could argue that the company is worth today 420p/share plus excess capital whatever that might be. £7 billion????

[samwn1] 26/11/2020 10:22

Share buy-backs improve EPS, which is the measure used for some executive bonus schemes - criminal. The bonus should be set up with the no of shares in issue at the time thus ignoring the result of any future buy back.

[linton5] 26/11/2020 10:17

Only 1 I know and that’s PLUS most all others waste of time and criminal to be honest,do these directors never see what we see

[linton5] 26/11/2020 10:11

Sorry Karv 1

[spud] 26/11/2020 10:11

Not to like? If they implemented a buyback program instead of paying down debt (although I'd agree it's cheap as chips currently) or return that money to the owners (ie us). I'd be furious if they squandered our money on useless buybacks. Name more than one company that has benefited from buybacks! spud

[linton5] 26/11/2020 10:11

But you will gat a 3rd divi by year end from nowv Karl as woodhawk mentioned

[karv1] 26/11/2020 10:08

The 21p basic will 6.6% if I have read it correctly.

[edmundshaw] 26/11/2020 10:07

Aviva have dividend dates on their site by the way:

7p Interim dividend

21/01/21 Payment date
10/12/20 Ex-dividend date

[linton5] 26/11/2020 10:04

I make it at 324 it’s 8.65% divi for 1year then improving what’s not to like here 🌻