Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[mo123] 24/11/2020 10:06

sorry wrong board

[karv1] 24/11/2020 09:39

What will you do then at 350 hold or sell?

[wba1] 24/11/2020 09:38

I hope, despite cjac's undoubtedly accurate comment, that AB has the resolution to ignore the pleadings of both city barrow boys and her own staff to go out and buy targets using the new proceeds. Aviva has a dreadful record of overpaying and then destroying whatever value they bought when making takeovers. I would much prefer to continue the AB strategy of selling off everything except the UK and Canada, and then put the remaining core on the auction block. That is the best way to max shareholder value.
And I do wish we did not have to repeat the same information for new posters. The Italy sale price reflects it is a JV sale, as has been pointed out immediately following the announcement, and is less relevant for 100% sales. And whilst the previous announcements did say the Q4 brief would deal with the 2019 final dividend it is blindingly clear that the declaration of a second 2019 interim of 6p (in the summer) can only be interpreted as a first contribution toward that missed final. I am expecting a further amount toward the missed 2019 payment, but not the full amount as well as the 6p (or even the full amount including the 6p).

[chinese investor] 24/11/2020 09:35

23p To 350p (my break even price) !

[1robbob] 24/11/2020 09:27

Devonbeachbum
I agree that the Final dividend for 2019 is to be announced
However, the total dividends announced for 2019 including the defunct Final were 30.9p
Dividends actually paid are: a 1st Interim of 9.5p and a 2nd Interim of 6.0p.
The 2nd Interim was described as part payment of the previously announced but subsequently withdrawn 2019 Final
This leaves 15.4p of the 2019 Final as yet unpaid

[eurofox] 24/11/2020 09:21

Karv1, I suggest all that stuff is noise-level; what was more important was that it was a further indication of the direction of travel that Blanc is taking and the speed that is being shown

[karv1] 24/11/2020 09:07

Would they actually get all the money? Yet again maybe due to my lack of knowledge. The sale will increase Aviva's net asset value by £0.1bn, strengthen the company's Solvency II capital surplus by £0.2bn, and increase its coverage ratio by about 4 percentage points. My question 3 parts 1. how does 400 million turn into an extra 0.1 billion net assets. 2nd part did we swap something that makes 50 million per year for 100 million net assets. 3rd part did we lose liabilities of 100 million and then gained the 400 million? sorry in advance if the question sounds stupid. you do not ask you do not learn.

[cjac39] 24/11/2020 08:40

i think it a reasonable price. if you add up europe at 8x you get to £3.3bln for france; £1.4bln for poland and £1.4bln for italy of which this is 0.35. So in aggregate with all sold it could be £6bln which is plausible as it equates to own funds. singapore adds £1.2bln.

on the debt side, they did reference in 2019 accs that they would target £1.5bln of debt reduction by 2022. clearly this will change and they could increase this to reflect they have reduced the size of the group from £24 own funds to £17-18 own funds. therefore on an equivalent leverage ratio they would need to reduce debt by £3bln rather than £1.5bln.

so still leaves c£4bln to play with. i would think the M&A guys are as busy throwing buy candidates at them as they are helping sell.

[salver2] 24/11/2020 08:25

The whole group’s on about 6 times and if Aviva went for RSA’s multiple it would be about 9 pounds a share / how it’s not higher than 3.23 is beyond me . The Italian business went for a low multiple as they effectively sold out to a joint partner who would have had them slightly over a barrel - in fact the press were speculating 200-309 euros before the deal - so small mercies maybe!

[imagining] 24/11/2020 07:53

In light of RSA's recent takeover offer of in excess of 21 times earnings,am I alone in thinking the Italian unit is being given away far too cheaply at a mere 8.4 times earnings? I'm not very impressed to be honest and hope they don't reward themselves bonuses on the back of these sort of 'negotiating skills'!

[carpingtris] 24/11/2020 07:42

only a day old news

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 24/11/2020 07:28

Aviva to sell its entire shareholding in Aviva VitaAviva plc ("Aviva") today announces that it has agreed to sell its entire 80% shareholding in the Italian life insurance joint venture, Aviva Vita S.p.A. ("Aviva Vita" or the "Company"), to its partner UBI Banca (the "Transaction"). The Transaction represents another important strategic milestone as Aviva delivers on its commitment to refocus its portfolio.On completion, Aviva will receive c.EUR400 million in cash consideration. The Transaction represents a multiple of 8.4x Aviva Vita's 2019 IFRS profit after tax, 1.0x Solvency II Own Funds at 30 June 2020 and 1.2x net asset value at 30 June 2020(1) . In addition, a subordinated loan of EUR40 million provided by Aviva Italia Holding S.p.A. to Aviva Vita, will be repaid in full at completion.

[1robbob] 23/11/2020 23:10

Do remember 6p of last years' aborted Finsl div of 20.9p has already been paid as a 2nd Interim

[devonbeachbum] 23/11/2020 22:56

It was a record year after all.

[cyberian] 23/11/2020 20:22

Devon...I am looking for a 2019 dividend final of 20p....nothing less will do in my opinion if she/the Board want to keep us on-side/supportive...no excuses or promises,please.

[devonbeachbum] 23/11/2020 18:31

I'm the worlds worst Investor but I'll throw my hat in the divi guessing sweep. Don't see any specials being handed out on the disposals as this surely defeats AB's intention of relocating capital in the right areas. I'm saying 20p for the cancelled final 2019 and 6p for interim 20. Which I would be very happy with. Saying that, I'm well happy with Aviva overall. Just as an interesting side note, for the first time ever Aviva were finally competitive on my car insurance when they've never been before. Gave them the business after the 10% discount, which is what AB wanted.

[1pencil] 23/11/2020 15:45

Very solid performance, no complaints this end.

[father jack1] 23/11/2020 14:38

Paying out 15.5p as the combined 2019 final and 2020 interim would go a long way to placating long suffering shareholders.

[karv1] 23/11/2020 14:24

dividends actually received in the calendar year 2021 yes

[1robbob] 23/11/2020 14:18

karv1

I suspect that 30.9p is very unlikely unless there is a special dividend

Are you taking about dividends relating to the 2021 Trading Year or dividends actualy received in calender year 2021?

[karv1] 23/11/2020 14:09

Complicated I want an income stock mostly but I have brought and sold many times to increase my position. I like the numbers on AV if I could get 30.9p in 2021 onwards I would never sell again. we are all here to make money.

[1robbob] 23/11/2020 14:00

Interesting to see that the daily volume in AV is gradually improving.

Hopefully the days of exceptionally low volumes effecting the share price are in the past.

[eurofox] 23/11/2020 13:58

Karv1, are you an investor or just a short-term worrier?

[1robbob] 23/11/2020 13:50

karv1
You might be missing a trick here.
Most, if not all, of the Divi predictions on this BB relate to this years' - 2020 - dividend payment amount. It is expected that AB will outline the basis of for dividend growth from 2021 onwards