Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[xamf] 17/11/2020 21:57

Moontheloon... Most stocks are looking seriously overbought right now. However these aren’t ordinary times! I sold both WTB and RDSB yesterday after a good run as I feared a short term retrace. I bought back this morning at lower levels yet they still finished up on yesterday. There’s so much pent-up demand from new money trying to catch the vaccine rally that it’s a dangerous game to be in cash at the moment.

From a trading perspective it’s very hard to judge exit and entry points. It’s probably more profitable to just sit and hold the more Covid sensitive stocks as vaccine news should be coming thick and fast over the next few weeks.

[moontheloon] 17/11/2020 21:24

Might be raining gold on the 26th, might add some, was thinking vaccine spike might drop back with profit taking across the board but it's not happened...

[moontheloon] 17/11/2020 21:20

Or a golden shower

[cassini] 17/11/2020 21:00

I think the 50 day moving average crossing the 200 day m.a. is called a 'golden cross' if I remember correctly. It's bullish if the 50 day m.a. is crossing the 200 day m.a. coming from underneath it of course, otherwise it's bearish ;0)

[whatsup32] 17/11/2020 20:35

Correct. Hopefully news on France , Singapore disposals and dividend guidance

[xamf] 17/11/2020 20:00

For traders who use charts alongside fundamental analysis (I sound like Mystic Meg) it’s considered an extremely bullish buy signal. You can actually find investor sites aimed specifically at highlighting stocks in this situation.

Quite separately, am I correct in thinking Aviva’s Q3 trading update is due on the 26th Nov?

[ftime] 17/11/2020 19:19

High quality discussion on here as always, thanks to all posters. XAMF although I don't read too much in the charts I am interested in your views. What significance does it have that the 15 and 50 day moving averages are crossing the 200 day?

[moontheloon] 17/11/2020 19:11

Looks like a perfect storm that chart... In a good way (I think) :-)

[xamf] 17/11/2020 18:42

I know most here are dubious of charts. However for the few that are interested the 15 & 50 day MA are both crossing the 200day MA.

I’ve a large core holding purchased in early April and have really valued the informed posts on this thread. This is lagging the returns on all my other large cap stocks and I’m expecting payback shortly.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com
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[1robbob] 17/11/2020 18:34

Regretably the Market will take a long time to forgive AV for the sins of the past
Time and ABs performance will be the only drivers for an improved share rating
In the meantime AB needs to do 3 things
1) Pay the current shareholders a decent dividend to compensate for the under-rating of their assets in the Market
2) Improve the returns of the existing businesses
3) Demonstrate that she can invest in the business to shareholders advatage

Personally. I don't share others view of paying down the debt; it isn't that high
I find the idea of buying M&G for cash quite compelling

[wba1] 17/11/2020 18:21

I am not sure a return to the Brexit debate is either a good idea or that relevant to Aviva share outlook (or wider share price outlook). What is relevant is the credibility of government, whether or not a Brexit deal is done, and my bigger concern at present is that it does not have much credibility for reasons which include Brexit but not as the main driver. Whether you are left or right it really is important that the Conservatives deal with the chaos at the heart of government and provide some confidence to us all and the markets. Policy can be Thatcherite or Blairite as long as we think they know what they are doing (a feeling which seems a long time ago).

But at least with Aviva there are real assets underpinning a price significantly higher than the market price.

[whatsup32] 17/11/2020 18:18

New management so far seem pro shareholders, I liked the fact AB wanted to get money back from Non Execs for messy repurchase of pref shares? that ended Aviva in court. I would have thought she would have gone for those nearer the coal face but alas.

I expect we’ll have news on France and Singapore disposals with France getting a better bid then market expects.

Fingers crossed

[spud] 17/11/2020 18:14

Analysts at UBS, Morgan Stanley, and Citi have all recently advised clients to buy into UK equities, arguing that the market could be a surprise performer in 2021.Morgan Stanley said in a note sent to clients on Sunday that the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) could rally by 17% next year. Citi this week told investors to consider an "aggressive" short-term bet on UK equities, Bloomberg reported. Analysts at the US bank said Britain's stock market was likely to outperform the US over the next few months.spud

[eurofox] 17/11/2020 17:42

Don't share your pessimism - and remember, Brits already have the biggest share of fish from our own waters and fishing is a miniscule percentage of the total trade involved; now is the time to get some balls a swallow just a little bit of pride!

[gary1966] 17/11/2020 17:36

From that article:

Getting a deal will still need the U.K. to make big political decisions over whether it is prepared to compromise, particularly on the thorny topic of access to British fishing waters, an EU official said.

It's always the same, the UK has to compromise. Not once have I seen it written that the EU must compromise, drop their demands. If what Barnier and Frost have said can be believed then there is a cat in hells chance of a deal being done, and the above illustrates why.

[whatsup32] 17/11/2020 17:30

It’s all go at the moment , bids coming in for U.K. companies , Brexit getting sorted one way or another , two vaccines for COVID-19 (poss three with Russian) and let’s not forget results next week .

Not tempted to sell at all

[eurofox] 17/11/2020 17:23

Brexit situation may be coming a factor in share resilience:

[whatsup32] 17/11/2020 17:22

Co-op received takeover offer from unknown bidder. Reported Guardian.

[wba1] 17/11/2020 15:19

Thanks spud. I should have remembered that one as I hold Vodafone!

[spud] 17/11/2020 15:11

Thats pretty much what VOD are doing with their Vantage Tower subsidiary.

spud

[wba1] 17/11/2020 14:59

Interesting thoughts on how best to realise locked in value for the Group. One possibility which has not been raised is floating subsidiaries. I am not suggesting changing the current plans to divest the European and Asian operations - I take that as a given and it should result in some rerating as it completes. However, we will still have a substantial Canadian operation and a composite UK operation and are left with the question of how to get their true value reflected in the share price.

Back in the late 90s I was with L&E (the UK subsidiary of Hartford) when they floated Hartford Life. They did this by offering the minimum allowable % of shares and did so because they did not believe the price of the parent group reflected the sum of parts valuation. The free float was to achieve a market valuation of the life operation which it was hoped would then be reflected back in the parent company share price, which continued to own a majority stake. It has to be said this did not go well for Hartford in that they later bought back and delisted the life shares and subsequently, in 2008/9, the Group had to be bailed out by Allianz due to capital weakness - but that is a different issue to the principle.

I would be interested to hear from cjac and others whether a similar strategy is either viable or attractive today. I believe the minimum float remains at 20% on Toronto so it might work for Aviva Canada. Not sure about doing something similar in the UK for parts of the composite.

[cyberian] 17/11/2020 14:14

karv1...you make a fair point and many would agree with you...it stimulates a lot of thought, and hopefully our new trusted CEO has a decent strategy in mind. Just selling assets for the sake of it is unwise so best to wait and see what unfolds over the coming weeks. Operating earnings need to be replaced and we may get a surprise that pushes the share price in a more favourable and sustainable direction..a recovery to at least 400p must be in the Directors mind, and to be priced at the very least alongside its peers.

[karv1] 17/11/2020 13:31

A fairytale. Would it not be ironic to find out that LGEN is buying the french unit as they want to grow their global base. some might say it a nail in AV coffin tho.