Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[ianood] 22/11/2020 12:32

Re selling off none core businesses - surely this is a good idea? Rationalisation, concentrating on the core and profitable markets whilst losing the distractions which often incur losses because of the lack of management time and controls. AB's response thus far has been very much to my satisfaction and I suspect there will be a well balanced commentary re divi / debt reduction and distributions. For my punt I'm hoping for 20 -24p with an L&G type projection going forward.

[father jack1] 22/11/2020 12:28

I reckon the 2019 final will be butchered, probably around 6p. An interim and final for 2020 of around 22p equates to 7% yield at current sp, which is where she will probably plump for

[1robbob] 22/11/2020 12:17

If Aviva wants to maintain its independence (or achieve a decent exit price !!)
AB can have only one objective in the immediate term, that being TO GET THE SHARE PRICE MUCH HIGHER.

Simply paying down debt with all or part of the sale proceeds will only make the Company more attractive to a bidder

To underwhelm with the Dividend Policy will significantly weaken the share price
So she as to take note of the yields of others in the sector, even if their businesses are not totally comparable

To announce special dividend possibilities will increase the independence risk, as it will be many months before the Asset sale proceeds are received and such Dividend paid

I bet she will try and announce a 'done deal' aquisition on Thursday and a total 2020 div of between 21p and 24p....To keep us poor private shareholders on side there has to be a possibility that the remaining 2019 Dividend will be paid in full ie 15.5p

[karv1] 22/11/2020 11:19

btw i'm still not convinced that selling all these foreign units is the best way forward.
I agree. Paying down debt is easy with low-interest rates. Creating new profits is hard, the money from the sold assets has to be used wisely to create new future profits.

[1robbob] 22/11/2020 11:13

unastubbs
I agree Share Buybacks hardly ever work and in my opinion are just gravy for those in the market who short stocks on a trading basis

Special Dividends can be a misnoma. In this case it would be a Return of Capital rather than Dividend Income

[unastubbs] 22/11/2020 10:54

sale of singapore unit agreed and the likely sale of aviva france imminent, plus the other non-core businesses also on the block it seems to me that an announcement on thursday that funds will be used to reduce debt will be a big green light to any potential bidder to bowl along and carve up what's left over. do we really want to see the last big UK insurer sold to foreign competitors? is it beyond imagining that aviva could yet emerge as a bidder for RSA's Canadian or UK outfits? or both? these are after all the markets they wish to concentrate on - why pass on these assets when they are available and the company has the wherewithal to hand? if AB wants to show true leadership next week I'll be looking for her to be talking about how the capital received will be used to benefit and grow the business. I don't mean share buybacks or special dividends. so debt reduction to an extent, sure that's prudent but some kind of value adding acquisition would be more reassuring to me even if the market dislikes it in the near-term.

btw i'm still not convinced that selling all these foreign units is the best way forward. personally i think tulloch was right and i feel he was a good CEO. i regret his leaving.

suggest we might get 21p dividend next year and 7p one off payment for the one we missed this year.

[hallucinogenix] 22/11/2020 10:37

A quarterly dividend would definitely be better IMO as there is less chance of missing out on a larger final payment due to a similar cancellation in the future. If it is split up then it wouldn't have such a severe impact and also create a more consistent income.

[killing_time] 22/11/2020 10:13

I'm really hoping that we go to quarterly dividend payments of 6p a share.

Don't know how much of the final div we will get back ( if any ) so viewing any payment above 6p as a bonus.

[spud] 21/11/2020 23:27

EF - I'm sure Mistic Meg will be bragging on Thursday so no need of a monitor. Btw, I made a prediction about 3 weeks ago so I'll add that to the mix. spud

[cjac39] 21/11/2020 21:25

come on wba - lets hear your divi and your share price prediction end next week?

its so 1990s to see a debate about risk free vs risky discount rates or otherwise arbitrage free pricing. how someone can set up an entire blog on it is beyond me.

enjoy the nonsense

hxxp://eumaeus.org/wordp/

hes all over just group about erms and its honestly quite funny.

[wba1] 21/11/2020 20:52

Off the dividend topic for a moment; I see there is one less player for any of our assets. Or at least I assume Zurich will be fully occupied with their bid for MetLife's general insurance arm.

[wba1] 21/11/2020 20:45

cjac; I thought we made things opaque in general insurance but compared with that Just discussion GI is completely transparent. I decided it was bs when I spotted the reference to the Black Scholes options model which I thought was largely discredited nearly 20 years ago.

huncher; not just the finance people who were trained in the dark arts of GI profit smoothing! Everyone who sat in the monthly boardroom meetings with Andrew Torrance soon learned the tricks of the trade.

[cjac39] 21/11/2020 20:00

Sp just to double down: min 340 post announcement

[karv1] 21/11/2020 19:53

With hope or fantasy or dreaming, I am going for 26p+ 350 by end of the week. Anyway if I am lucky at guessing no one will all be complaining on Friday..

[karv1] 21/11/2020 19:51

If it was 18p id probably bail I would be very disappointed. I can not complain tho I have done amazing out of AV. but at 18p other targets would become more appealing.

[dbadvn] 21/11/2020 19:50

15p for me

[carpingtris] 21/11/2020 19:48

5% yield and share price end of week 335p ... all guesses. :)

But hey 5% in today's climate isn't bad! It can always grow.

[pol123] 21/11/2020 19:45

AB has already stated divi rate will not be as high as before. Expect 6-7% yield. Dept reduction is top of the funding agenda

[carpingtris] 21/11/2020 19:43

What do people think about quarterly payouts of a Divi much like Lloyds are going to do and supposedly preferred by income investors and people who live off divis.

I'm not against the idea..

[eurofox] 21/11/2020 19:41

spud, as thread owner will you keep the book?

[eurofox] 21/11/2020 19:40

... hoping for a bit of a drop, so share price at 309p, but lining up for a jump into the next trading range when those with unrealistic expectations have exited the party

[dr biotech] 21/11/2020 19:37

Go on then just for fun. I’ll say 23p, and to add a bit more to it I’ll say the share price at Thursday close will be 324.

[eurofox] 21/11/2020 19:36

... and 18p from me

[cjac39] 21/11/2020 19:18

feels like a poll / sweepstake is in order for bragging rights. personally im on the low end of the scale as they will need to look through the post eur op earnings being 30% lower than before. so in old money, ie now money, id say 20p progressive but id expect a decent special alongisde debt paydown when they sell eur

cjac - 20p.