Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[karv1] 23/11/2020 13:46

If I was a long-term holder I would find it very hard to see AB's statement of benefits for the shareholders and a 30% cut in my income ie 20p payment for 2021. How could AB attempt to sell this in the same statement while dividends were covered by profits? I would feel like I just been kicked and someone telling me it is for my own good.

[karv1] 23/11/2020 13:39

Thanks, mo123 I think I am just getting concerned about the update, I really would like to see 30.9p again or 26p as the minimum for 2021 but I seem to be in the minority on this thinking.

[mo123] 23/11/2020 12:41

karv1

As part of the deal, the €40m loan to the Italian firm will be repaid in full only on completion.

The sum represents 8.4 times the IFRS profits made by Aviva Vita in 2019 after tax, and boosting Aviva’s capital surplus by £200m and increase its net asset value by £100m.

Aviva has three other businesses in Italy, which are currently under evaluation:

Aviva spa, a 51% owned life insurance joint venture with Unicredit;
Aviva Life spa, a 100% owned life insurance firm;
Aviva Italia spa, a 100% owned general insurance company.

[uppompeii] 23/11/2020 12:07

1rob, with me, apathy has set in :-)

[cyberian] 23/11/2020 12:05

pdosullivan...you make the same point as I made earlier this morning that the multiple exit of Singapore and Italy should give AV. a value of around 535p...your comment over Italy selling at 1.2 NAV,whereas AV. sits at 0.7 CURRENTLY is rather persuasive for an up-side re-valuation. Much will be determined by the tone of our CEO on Thursday with a clear signal over the future strategy.A slow grind-up is possible IF she hits the right notes! Have to wait and see, but if she fails then others will see the value and break us up.

[1robbob] 23/11/2020 11:54

Fun comment. Old Stockmarket homilies:

Only 2 emotions involved in investment = Greed and Fear

A long term investment = a failed short-term punt

The thrill of travelling = is better than the arriving

....Lets hope the last one does not apply to AV

[carpingtris] 23/11/2020 11:48

I'm longer term for my sins so not much interested in what happens Thursday.

More interested to see where this is in a year or two.

Average price is 309p so long as it stays above that I'm happy - if it goes below I'll probably buy more but cannot see that happening again.

[pdosullivan] 23/11/2020 11:39

Interesting to see that the Italian JV was sold at 1.2x NAV while Aviva itself is trading on only 0.7x.

[eurofox] 23/11/2020 11:38

What an eclectic group of interested parties we are ... different sorts of optimism/pessimism different investment/trading goals and different time horizon perspectives. It certainly makes for an interesting life.

Thanks to cAmanda Blanc for stirring the pot.

[spud] 23/11/2020 11:37

Indeed rob. Having trawled back through my posts, I did indeed f/cast 21p for next year (6 & 15p) so perhaps I'm being a touch harsh. I guess with all the inflows I'm looking for some imaginative out of the box thinking on Thursday. Let's hope we see it, along with a shareholder reward for the poor dividend decision this year. spud

[wadders5] 23/11/2020 11:33

Like what? Just of interest?

[leedslad001] 23/11/2020 11:17

I will wait to see what they say if all negative will sell up and move on. I will make a nice profit but not waiting for a year for this to perform too many good shares out there with 40% upside

[1robbob] 23/11/2020 11:16

spud hold on a minute
The declared total dividends for 2019 before BoE interference was 30.9p
a 30% cut gives 21.6p ....that well in the range 21p-24p touted on ths BB over he last few months.

That having been said; if there is some 'front running' up to the Announcement the price could actually fall on Thursday regardless

Personally, I am hopeing for only a holding comment on France on Friday.
I favour a drip-drip approach to positive announcements over the next weeks and months. Much better than all on one day, then excruciating and annoying silence for 3 months!!

Totally agree re Buy-back = Corporate admission of defeat and a short-seller's bonanza

However, if they were to offer to buy back x% of the equity by Tender at a premium price say 400p
we all can participate, asset value per share would be increased, short-sellers screwed.... and the share price would go bonkers

[spud] 23/11/2020 11:08

I think the Aviva BOD thinking re dividend cover and unimaginative utilisation of cash ect is in large part to blame for the chronic undervaluation. I also don't think anyone should be surprised that this continues to lag behind its peers and until they start to think outside the box, I can't see this changing anytime soon. I just hope the dreaded Buyback word doesn't come into play Thursday....spud

[leedslad001] 23/11/2020 10:56

IMHO this should be 3.50 now without these disposals

[spud] 23/11/2020 10:43

I would have thought the dividend at original 2019 levels would have been protected without the additional monies flooding into the cash reserve! Sounds like our esteemed leader has inherited the Tulloch chip...If true, Thursday could see some selling. spud

[mo123] 23/11/2020 10:32

Shore Capital Markets, said that "the market is expecting the dividend to be cut by about 30%, potentially as early as Thursday, when Aviva is set to hold an investor day."

But added: “If the company can deploy the proceeds from the asset sales then the company can partially or indeed fully protect the dividend.” Hmmm?

[cjac39] 23/11/2020 10:28

good point wba...to the jv partner at 1x....

[hhhold2] 23/11/2020 10:26

AB cleaning up Aviva is like throwing chum to sharks especially with the FT being depressed from Brexit,

she's getting some lipstick on this p.., err cheap share, happy to hold.

[linton5] 23/11/2020 10:19

Cliff thorburns nickname The GRINDER hasn’t got a Spot on aviva

[eurofox] 23/11/2020 10:18

.... "Really don’t understand this share, even on good news it seems to go up grudgingly."

We don't want a sugar rush price explosion - we want steady sustained buying by institutions over weeks and months - they don't do buying in an unsustainable rush.

[karv1] 23/11/2020 09:52

AB said Our strategy is about focus and delivery. The sale of Aviva Vita is another important step forward as we reshape our portfolio and follows the recent announcement of the majority sale of our Singaporean business. We will continue to be decisive as we seek to transform Aviva for the benefit of our shareholders."=== I just can not see the dividends being slashed by 1/3 while the profits cover the old dividend rate and some after reading this statement.

[whatsup32] 23/11/2020 09:49

Really don’t understand this share, even on good news it seems to go up grudgingly. I suspect same Thursday unless seriously positive news.

Also not certain of update re Singapore other then progressing as expected.

[cyberian] 23/11/2020 09:36

If you look at the Singapore and Italy exit earnings multiple AV. would be fairly valued at approx. 535p....so be relaxed over events this Thursday whatever is announced.

[whatsup32] 23/11/2020 09:32

Somehow more optimistic on thurday