Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[whatsup32] 21/11/2020 19:17

Hoping to bail out Thursday, held for two years only to see it drop from purchase 480p to 318p .

One of my worst investments

[dr biotech] 21/11/2020 17:51

I think 24p will be about right. Profits will drop with the peripheral sales, use the proceeds to pay down debt, have a smaller better focused co. Or just flog the whole thing, I’ve held these long enough..

[cassini] 21/11/2020 17:31

Which figure is unrealistic? I don't think 8% is unrealistic, considering it's a actually ~20% cut from the historical 9.72% dividend yield as of Friday. Phoenix, L&G, M&G and SLA for instance have all maintained their dividends this year.

Granted they weren't as high as Aviva's to start with, but SLA currently yields 8.02%. M&G yields 8.1%.

I'm getting 0.01% in my Lloyds Saver Account but I'm not sure why that translates over to what I get as a dividend from an insurance company.

I'm betting on 8% at the current share price (24p). We'll see.

[huncher] 21/11/2020 17:27

Hi wba when I mentioned were you PL I was being naïve you were clearly corporate finance although I know not which. Playing with reserving has long been a game in the industry and I can think of one MD and CFO who both left at the same time who benefited from reserve releases. As you say IBNR is by way the best way to fog the issue. Speaking of claims I do not think PM is in a good place - totally unrelated to IBNR/ Reserving which always was a Corporate issue even given Actuarial input.

[eurofox] 21/11/2020 16:59

.... "On the dividend for 2021 let us hope for at least 8%. If we get between 8% and 7% it will be hard to call how the market will react. Below 7% I feel the share price will fall. Below 6% and it will crash! On a positive note, if it's 8%+ we will rise some and if we are 26p to 32p+ ie 9%+ to 10% we could see huge gains."

Totally unrealistic expectations in today's low interest rate environment!! (imo)

[gutterhead] 21/11/2020 16:54

mystic meg...brilliant

you are right, its going to go up or down

[karv1] 21/11/2020 16:37

I look at the profit/loss, borrowing and the net debt/cash positions. My knowledge on insurance solvency funds etc is very limited. When they use the terms 'self-generating' is this from the 12 billion surpluses? I am guessing on the surplus. I see other insurers use the term 'reserve release' is this related to the surplus? and if so, at what point would they release funds? and at what percentage is the minimum they require to hold on to for the solvercy fund to be safe? Which I read is currently running at 194%. On the dividend for 2021 let us hope for at least 8%. If we get between 8% and 7% it will be hard to call how the market will react. Below 7% I feel the share price will fall. Below 6% and it will crash! On a positive note, if it's 8%+ we will rise some and if we are 26p to 32p+ ie 9%+ to 10% we could see huge gains.

[wba1] 21/11/2020 16:08

I have little expectation regarding dividends (I do not mean I do not expect clarity, simply that I do not know what to expect). But provided there is a clear statement on dividend resumption (I am ignoring the odd '2nd 2019 interim'), future dividend policy and the use of sale receipts I am not too bothered. I can see why the focus on dividend quantum for those buying these shares as an income, but with my focus on the rerating of the shares for capital gain I see the sale prices and use of those receipts as more important (at least beyond the short term). I also expect Blanc to continue to play games with the accounts in the 2nd half which she may use to finesse both dividend policy and use of disposal receipts (at least short term). The half year report clearly showed some usual CEO tricks in GI, including prior year strengthening and a massive increase in IBNR provisions (both gross and net). As usual, trying to understand the underlying performance of an insurer requires an understanding of tricks which would do credit to a member of the magic circle.

[1robbob] 21/11/2020 14:54

If you look back through previous posts you will see several guesstimates for the Divi

1) A Final payent in respect of the delayed 2019 Dividend - My Guess is 6.5p to be paid immediately
2) An Interim Dividend for 2020 - My guess is 6.0p to be paid immediately
3) A guide as to the total payout for 2020: My guess is 24p, thus indicating an 18p Final
4) A guide as to Dividend policy for 2021 onwards
5) A statement as to the intentions for the proceeds of the various Asset sales
including the possibility for Special Dividends

[father jack1] 21/11/2020 14:16

Where do we think the dividend payout will be pitched? Anything less than 12p will be very poorly received.

[spud] 21/11/2020 12:20

Think we need to leave the politics to the political threads and maybe get back to Aviva chaps...spud

[igoe104] 21/11/2020 11:56

Comparing Blanc to Tulloch is even more offensive...

[wba1] 21/11/2020 11:48

In any company the behaviour of Patel would have resulted in a formal warning for her first offence. She has offended multiple times in 3 different ministries, has caused the public purse to finance payoffs and has had to be sacked by her boss for going behind the PMs back to talk with a foreign state. Add in that it is now clear that she lied to the inquiry (she claimed that she had not been warned and has now been flatly contradicted by Rutnam who did warn her) and you have a pattern of behaviour which would not be tolerated in any decent company (of which Aviva is one, even if it has its shortcomings).

Comparing Blanc to Patel is grossly offensive to Blanc.

[eurofox] 21/11/2020 10:38

Having a "can't do attitude" in a servant of the public is not acceptable either

[mo123] 21/11/2020 10:20

Next week:

Start of Christmas rally?
Brexit deal?
Decent update from Amanda?

And as Eric Idle says " Always look on the bright side of life"

fxstreet Aviva Q3 – 26/11 – when Aviva reported its H1 numbers in August, profits saw a fall of 11%, as insurance claims rose by £165m, dragging operating profits down to £1.2bn. Having suspended the dividend in April the company announced an interim payment of 6p a share. The firm’s asset management arm Aviva Investors took a sizeable hit as profits fell over 40% to £35m, however the recent improvements in financial markets could see some of this clawed back in Q3. New CEO Amanda Blanc has certainly taken over at a very challenging time but has said that the main focus of the business going forward will be on the company’s core markets of UK, Ireland and Canada. This suggests that we could see plans to dispose of the businesses in France, Italy and Singapore, as the company looks to reduce its debt levels, and improve its cash levels.

[imagining] 21/11/2020 10:09

Putting up with a foul-mouthed bully is totally unacceptable in a civilised society and demonstrates weakness and incompetence.

[eurofox] 21/11/2020 09:25

Priti may go about it in the wrong way but not putting up with a "can't do attitude" is the right goal

[wba1] 21/11/2020 09:23

"Same school as Priti Patel"? You mean she lies through her teeth, screams at her staff and has abandoned all pretence of adhering to normal ethical standards? I hope (and believe) Blanc is better than that.

[ianood] 20/11/2020 16:57

I reckon and hope that she's from the same school as Priti Patel :)

[leedslad001] 20/11/2020 16:54

Hope Amanda has a set of balls lol

[spud] 20/11/2020 16:30

Lucky AV isn't a bank then!spud

[leedslad001] 20/11/2020 16:28

Silly old git about 80 chair on of euro banking saying banks should not pay div yet till 2 nd qtr no idea about real world

[cjac39] 20/11/2020 13:37

exactly WBA - take another favourite of mine - Just Retirement - the key drivers of that business are int rates, HPI, credit and longevity. Across all of these they are very favourable this year apart from int rates although they've hedged most of this exposure and they are turning as well now. when they report results for 2020 it will be a standout positive which mkt is still not valuing fully...they might even switch back on their divi for good measure too...

off topic for aviva but the read across is there and some given the scale of avivas annuity business

[wba1] 20/11/2020 10:05

I had not looked very closely at Hiscox 9 month trading statement but had a few minutes and have done so. It reinforces the underlying fall in claims putting to one side the exposure to Covid business interruption and event cancellation claims. Hiscox are saying they will still hit their COR target for the Retail division despite taking (I estimate from their comments) Covid claims amounting to between 5-7% hit to their loss ratio in this division. Whilst this is spread around territories it does add further evidence to the benefit for insurers less exposed to Covid. And Hiscox will be benefitting less from the low claims in motor than many as this is a lesser line for them compared to many insurers. More good news on the outlook for 2020 profit at Aviva and others (although, as I have said before, do not expect it all to be declared - reserves will be stuffed).

Huncher; very sorry to hear about Graham Masters. A decent guy who was always helpful to me.