Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[dekle] 19/4/2021 08:43

They have bonds maturing as well to service

[kaos3] 19/4/2021 08:39

was that - didnt need for the dividend payout - probably not

[loglorry1] 19/4/2021 08:35

Very good post Maddox. Totally agree. A cynic might wonder why they keep borrowing when they should now be producing a lot of cash? I think BUR needs to turn some of these cases into cashflow for a few more quarters before the market accepts that their cases really do hold all this latent value.

[maddox] 18/4/2021 18:04

Hiya Madharry,

Good to have a US perspective on the BB. BUR is very reluctant to provide forecasts due to the timing uncertainty of settlements and case conclusions. Looking at the way the numbers have landed - I have some sympathy with this.

They do however, provide a colossal amount of historic performance data - so it's far from being a black box. The 2019 Annual Report articulates the nature of the business extremely well and presents the historic performance from a number of perspectives to aid understanding - it runs to 160 pages - and was the key data set presented for its US listing.

Looking at the latest report for Fin Year 2020:

>> $4.483bn of invested capital (65% own b/sheet = $2.929bn);

>> Consistent track record of 90+% Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) or c.30% IRR; and yet,

>> Market Cap of $2.24bn(£1.62bn).

So currently, Burford is valued at only 76% of its own balance sheet but generates outstanding returns on that capital. At some point Mr Market is going to wake-up to the growth/value on offer here.

As to dividends, I like a firm to pay a dividend even if just a nominal one. Burford has plenty of capital - just raised $350m "it didn't need". The dividend by way of contrast will cost $27m for the full year - a drop in the ocean.

Regards Maddox

[alfredomega] 18/4/2021 09:29

Hi madharry,

Regarding the dividend, my opinion is that a company should only give dividend when they don't have anything better to do with the cash. I don't think this is Burford's situation, not yet. They better use the cash to finance new cases or repay debt.

[bogman1] 17/4/2021 23:52

Welcome Harry, hope you do well, reckon u got in pretty cheap, even given the recent strength. Its certainly a black box, but have faith in the numbers, we are all drumming our fingers waiting on the Peterson rns that should give this share the re rate it deserves, lots in the pipeline and margins are large

[scubadiverr] 17/4/2021 20:38

What's our time frame?

[madharry3] 17/4/2021 19:22

I am a value investor located in the United States. As a long time value investor I can only say that that that just because you buy a stock that you believe to be undervalued there is no reason to expect that it will turn around and become properly valued based upon your time frame.
I dont believe that that the company communicates its story particularly well or that its reporting is as timely as it could be. I also would like the company to break out what is happening with the different funds that they manage. what sort of renumeration they are expecting from each fund over the next 5 years.


So now the question is am i willing to invest in what is a essentially a black box. In this particular situation my answer is yes I am. The one thing I would like to see is some sort of commitment to a clear dividend policy. like we will distribute x% if our net cash flow annually.
I appreciate all the comments that are posted here. thank you all.

[lomax99] 16/4/2021 13:54

Sssshhh....

[donald pond] 14/4/2021 21:03

Does look to be making a bit of a bowl here

[williamcooper104] 14/4/2021 20:15

To date all the BOD trades (selling at the peak and buying at the bottom) have been spot on

[time_traveller] 14/4/2021 20:11

Being?...

Roughly eyeballing it, £10 area looks like the next stop.

[kaos3] 14/4/2021 17:55

imh experience - in low vol, low price environment with chart knocking to the ceiling for the 3rd or 4 th time - and BOD adding - it is the perfect time to accumulate a position

I sold out few times before at these levels, but this time I think we are ripe to move to the next share price level

[rar100] 14/4/2021 17:51

A YPF pop would be just right...

[three black crows] 14/4/2021 17:23

Rar100, hang in there boy, its going to pop one day soon

[rar100] 14/4/2021 16:35

I wish you the best of luck
My faith is not strong enough to average down I'm afraid
I just can't understand the persistent low volumes and until that changes I don't see things changing much in SP
I genuinely believe that Burford and litfin is a morally good new presence in law and makes sense but the market seems not to agree or know about it, a bit of both I guess.
I often wonder what the volumes were like pre MW but don't know how to find those figures. I would bet that they were a lot higher than now, but that's just a bet...
GLA

[bogman1] 13/4/2021 10:41

Just right, my first purchase was at 15, just kept buying under 6 now my average is 846, which I am happy with sitting on for the moment. Safe in the knowledge it will get back to 15 or above

[lazg] 13/4/2021 10:14

Rar: just average down if you believe in the stock.

[1aconic] 12/4/2021 19:55

Regarding YPF "news": I wouldn't get too excited. The context has probably just been lost by whatever translator you've run it though. The original Spanish version reads far more like he's simply referring to the regular progress updates that the parties give to the court. Both parties have requested an extension for this (not for the first time). His tweet has no direct implication whatsoever that there's any news on the horizon other than the usual case progression.

[lomax99] 12/4/2021 12:57

I really do think you need to move on........

[rar100] 12/4/2021 12:22

I hope you do well kaos3, but with volumes so low it seems to me that the directors are the only ones buying significantly.
Maybe there is news coming on YPF or other cases but it's only rumor as far as I'm concerned, the directors would know however, so just maybe...but that's gambling not investing...

[kaos3] 12/4/2021 10:47

I bought - directors buying, third attempt at chart breakout, recent litigation noise on the big cases ..... lots of opportunity coming, US listing still has to deliver

[alter ego] 12/4/2021 10:37

rns just out
"In addition to the share purchases announced last week, on April 7, 2021, Christopher Bogart, Burford's Chief Executive Officer, and Jonathan Molot, Burford's Chief Investment Officer, each purchased 21,000 shares of Burford Capital on the New York Stock Exchange at an average price of $10.09 per share as part of their broader acquisition of shares as detailed in Burford's 2020 Annual Report. On April 8, 2021, Mr Bogart and Mr Molot each purchased 2,500 shares at an average price of $10.04 per share. On April 9, 2021, Mr Bogart and Mr Molot each purchased 15,120 shares at an average price of $9.94 per share. As a result of these transactions, Mr Bogart controls a total of 9,158,608 shares, and Mr Molot controls a total of 9,771,721 shares."