Burford Capital Share Chat (BUR)

Share Name	Share Symbol	Market	Type	Share ISIN	Share Description
Burford Capital Limited	LSE:BUR	London	Ordinary Share	GG00B4L84979	ORD NPV

	Price Change	% Change	Share Price	Bid Price	Offer Price	High Price	Low Price	Open Price	Shares Traded	Last Trade
	-4.00p	-0.21%	1,934.00p	1,928.00p	1,932.00p	1,950.00p	1,918.00p	1,950.00p	31,858	09:07:59

Industry Sector	Turnover (m)	Profit (m)	EPS - Basic	PE Ratio	Market Cap (m)
Equity Investment Instruments	253.7	184.5	88.6	21.2	4,123.78

Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

Showing 23551 to 23574 of 23575 messages

Chat Pages: 943 942 941 940 939 938 937 936 935 934 933 932 Older

Date	Subject	Author	Discuss
25/9/2018 14:47	FT just now: Luis Caputo has resigned as Argentina’s central bank president after just three months on the job, dealing a blow to President Mauricio Macri’s ongoing attempt to restore investor confidence in the country following a months-long currency crisis. Https://www.ft.com/content/6501407c-c0c3-11e8-95b1-d36dfef1b89a?emailId=5baa335d069465000467d4bd&;segmentId=3d08be62-315f-7330-5bbd-af33dc531acb Last week's Economist ran a substantial article querying the chances of Macri being re-elected next October: Another recession, the second since Mr Macri took office, now seems inevitable. In May the central bank raised interest rates to 40% to tackle a currency crisis that has seen the peso lose more than half its value against the dollar since the start of the year. The next month the government secured a $50bn credit line from the IMF, the largest in the fund’s history. In August, as the peso continued its slump, the central bank raised rates to 60%. None of these measures bought more than temporary relief. Mr Macri has appealed to the IMF to accelerate the loan payments. A new round of negotiations with the fund began on September 4th and have yet to conclude. With a presidential election due in October 2019, investors fear that the crisis will precipitate Mr Macri’s departure and a return to the disastrous populist policies of his Peronist predecessor, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Mr Macri is entitled to feel dizzied by his fall from grace. Until recently he appeared assured of a second term in office as reward for his efforts to repair the economic damage inflicted by Ms Fernández. Soon after taking office, his government slashed export taxes, lifted currency controls and resolved a disagreement with bondholders to restore access to international capital. Spending cuts were implemented gradually to protect the third of Argentines below the poverty line. Https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2018/09/22/argentinas-president-struggles-with-a-sinking-economy The gist of the article is that Fernandez is more unpopular than he is, but the Peronists under a new leader would be ahead of him. Rather puts the IMF in a bind: will they get their money back ($50bn)? And would a $bnn payout to a US "vulture fund" be an election chip? Selling part of the claim a smart move?	jonwig	Read Full Thread Reply
24/9/2018 23:05	Two other attributes of Burford perhaps also of tremendous value at the present time are that, firstly, Burford is not really dependent on the immediate ups and downs of present economic uncertainties, such as the consequences of Brexit, relations with the EU, effects of trade wars, etc., and, secondly, that the vast majority of earnings are in non-sterling currencies, thus providing both a natural hedge against possible depreciation of sterling, as well as possible windfall profits from that very same circumstance. It may well be that the market atarts looking for companies that offer this kind of protection (a political hedge as well as a currency hedge, all in one) to investors.	galatea99	Read Full Thread Reply
24/9/2018 22:54	AOL/Motley Fool article arguing that Burford is seriously underpriced: "Burford Capital(LSE: BUR) has grown 10-fold in the last 3 years and now has a market cap of over 4 billion. Most investors won’t be familiar with Burford because it operates in a new sector and has only been listed on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM). It provides capital to the legal sector, covering the costs of cases for legal companies and corporations, and is rewarded if the case is settled or there is a payout. Burford takes on the risk that legal firms and corporations are unwilling or unable to take, and has become an expert in investing in the asset value of legal claims. Reasonably valued for a quality company Return on capital employed (ROCE) is a good measure of how well a business is utilising its funds, and one that is recommended by Warren Buffett. Burford has a ROCE of 17.5%, which is extremely efficient. It also has an 82.1% operating margin as its costs are very low. As long as Burford has a high ROCE, the small dividend is not a drawback as the company should be generating superior profits on that capital, which should reflect in an increasing share price. The company currently has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 19, although in the current bull market I think a P/E of 30 based on its high quality and current level of growth would be fair. Compared to other investment companies such as the high flyer Hargreaves Lansdown, which has a similar profile and a stretched P/E of 37.7, Burford looks very reasonably priced. High risk, high reward Most people will know how risky litigation is and how long cases can last, which could lead to very unpredictable earnings for Burford. Fortunately the size of the payouts are much higher than legal costs, which has led to Burford having a good record of beating expectations. The company is run by former lawyers who know legal cases very well and are skilled at assessing the level of the risk involved, and as a result only invest in a small amount of cases that they are offered. Some investors may not be comfortable with the amount of value that this company has locked into legal cases but this provides considerable benefits. The payout from claims is not correlated with market conditions and results should not suffer in the event of an economic downturn. Burford also has a significant advantage as market leader, as its reputation and large capital base make it very difficult for new companies to compete. Buy and hold This is a company that I would buy and hold as the risks in this sector and the speed that it is growing at will cause some price volatility; however, it is reasonable to assume that these will level out over the long term. The CEO has stated that it is comfortable listed on the AIM but if Burford continues to grow then it may consider joining the main market to enhance its reputation. This should increase the value of the share price as tracker funds would purchase shares of Burford when it joined the index." Https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/09/24/this-aim-stock-is-nearly-big-enough-for-the-ftse-100-a-and-can/?guccounter=1	galatea99	Read Full Thread Reply
18/9/2018 09:22	The chart is telling me to buy some more...so I have	volsung	Read Full Thread Reply
17/9/2018 11:46	Breakout time!	ostrading2	Read Full Thread Reply
17/9/2018 09:54	Not sure this was posted before but interesting analysis; especially so for prospective investors: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4162663-burford-capital-litigation-funding-self-disruption	czeck	Read Full Thread Reply
14/9/2018 13:18	I have us in a declining wedge which with the long term support needs to resolve itself by next Thursday. Any further drop though and we have fallen out.	mad foetus	Read Full Thread Reply
13/9/2018 17:54	Thanks for the clarification.Aiming to top up in the mid £18's, if I get a chance.	lomax99	Read Full Thread Reply
13/9/2018 14:14	Yes, this was the first portfolio funding (as opposed to single-case) from Burford, in August 2017. This is the RNS: Https://www.investegate.co.uk/burford-capital--bur-/rns/statement-re-new-portfolio-financing-transaction/201708011324577728M/	jonwig	Read Full Thread Reply
13/9/2018 13:47	Bamboo- any potential updates on the charts soon? Many thanks.	czeck	Read Full Thread Reply
13/9/2018 13:45	'as well as becoming the first top-100 UK law firm to offer funded litigation in partnership with Burford Capital.' Https://www.legalbusiness.co.uk/analysis/lb100-2018/lb100-case-study-shepherd-and-wedderburn/ Surprised they are the first?	lomax99	Read Full Thread Reply
12/9/2018 16:25	PJ0077 yes, of course, but I was expressing bewilderment at the difference between the past share price performance and the past figures you quoted: It's track record suggests a ROIC of 100%+ & IRR 70%. This compares with Burford's ROIC of 75% & IRR of 31%.	jonwig	Read Full Thread Reply
12/9/2018 15:55	I can only gain in wealth from a future share price rather than a past share price.As the standard financial disclosure reveals ' past performance may not be indicative of future results'.Worth bearing in mind for both BUR & IMF.	pj0077	Read Full Thread Reply
12/9/2018 15:36	PJ0077 - look at IMF Bentham's share price performance over almost any timeframe: not all that inspiring. (Eg. +33% over 5 years!)	jonwig	Read Full Thread Reply
12/9/2018 15:19	But they appear to have learnt from their mistakes,a monkey would keep making the same mistake lol	nurdin	Read Full Thread Reply
12/9/2018 15:14	You would have thought a monkey throwing darts would have picked a more winnable portfolio than their first 9 cases.	trident5	Read Full Thread Reply
12/9/2018 14:46	There already is a listed competitor in Australia, IMF Bentham.It's track record suggests a ROIC of 100%+ & IRR 70%.This compares with Burford's ROIC of 75% & IRR of 31%.So either IMF is taking on riskier cases than Burford, else the latter can much improve.Encouragingly, IMF concur that the vast majority (82%) of cases are settled before going to court.	pj0077	Read Full Thread Reply
12/9/2018 13:21	I bet they wont shout about that too much !	monnow	Read Full Thread Reply
12/9/2018 12:24	Lost 8 of their first 9 - wow!!	trident5	Read Full Thread Reply
12/9/2018 09:51	Thanks Kirkie	nurdin	Read Full Thread Reply
12/9/2018 09:44	Thanks for summary, Kirkie. However it goes, it will be good to have a competitor with more comparative numbers and analyst comment, I guess.	jonwig	Read Full Thread Reply
12/9/2018 09:38	Thanks to a particularly kind soul, I've got my hand on Barclays marketing / analyst booklet which they've produced ahead of the IPO. 80 odd pages of research. I haven't read yet, but main takeaways: - large addressable amrket; - Vannin are the UK market leader, whereas Burford are US market leader; - Vannin has 33 completed cases since inception. They lost 8 of their first 9. then changed their underwriting processes. Since then, they've won 22 of 25 (with a further one settled). £58.7m won on £21.1m invested. So perhaps they've made their mistakes and learned from them? - they've got some summary valuation methodologies at the back: residual income, DCF, peer average on 2019E PER (and stressed), and P/B regression on 2019E ROE. Let's just say that the lowest valuation range starts at about £675m market cap. 4 of the 5 start between £700 and £800m market cap. - at £700m MCap, their implied 2019E PER is 11.4x. On current (6th sept) prices, Burford's 2019E PER is 18.0x. - at £900m MCap, theri 2019E PER is 14.6x. Looks like it's going to be pretty fully priced.....	kirkie001	Read Full Thread Reply
11/9/2018 14:48	mr benn - not even a prospectus yet for Vannin! And with a private placing (out of public eyes, that is) there won't be a grey market, as these only happen with a public IPO where applicants can bet on the likely open with a SB firm. A few of us here have suggested MCap numbers of £400 - 500m. I just can't understand the hype about £1bn! Obviously there's some marketing talk going on here. Unless you've about £1m to invest you won't be able to apply. You could ring Evercore Partners and ask them about it. Let us know what they say! PS: I was 'Sid' once - happy days!	jonwig	Read Full Thread Reply
11/9/2018 13:36	Its a long time since i applied for new shares, just to sell them immediately for a profit. ( happy Sid days for older guys on here !!). Any news on whst the grey market are pricing these at ? Thanks	mr bennn	Read Full Thread Reply

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