From Seb
🔴Attestor Master and other funds are requesting a hearing with Judge Preska before seeking the seizure of Argentine sovereign assets, which, when it takes place, will be done confidentially. They are also seeking to prevent another fund, Bainbridge Fund, from interfering with the seizure of USD 310 million.
ATB |
So the first form said it was the exercising of stock options for cash. The amended form said it was the vesting of RSUs granted under the co. scheme. Sloppy clerical error. |
I was surprised to see the announcement of intention to exercise options. Form4 confirmations should follow soon. Thought we were in a quiet period after year end. The lawyers will know better than me but insiders selling after year end and before results are announced is unusual. Unless they are compelled to do so under the scheme which may be the case given the number of managers who sold.
Thoughts? |
From Seb, 2 hrs ago
At 5:00 PM (ARG), the Second Circuit Court of Appeals lifted the stay of the seizure of the Brady Bonds collateral. Starting tomorrow, judgment creditors may request Judge Preska to order the Federal Reserve of New York to release USD 310 million in sovereign assets.
GLA |
What do all those releases published this evening in the US mean? |
Given the current market cap of YPF, I think I'd rather be in the oil business (assuming you could ship it tariff free!). |
 Ashmore latest, not an economist, looks OK to me :
Argentina: Yesterday, the government announced a cut in export duties until 30 June. The objective is to enhance producers’ margins, which have been declining due to lower prices, amid a potential mild drought. It would also incentivise
producers to sell the harvest sooner, allowing the central bank to buy Dollars in the official FX market. Rates will be trimmed as below:
• Soybean from 33% to 26%, the lowest since November 2019. Soy oil from 31% to 24.5%.
• Corn, wheat, barley, sorghum, and sunflower to 9.5%, the lowest since August 2018.
• Eliminated export taxes on sugar, cotton, tobacco, rice, leather, and others.
The government estimates the fiscal cost would be around USD 800m (0.1% of GDP) and retain significant margin after reaching a 1.8% primary surplus in 2024.
Moody’s raised Argentina’s sovereign credit for the first time in five years, from Ca to Caa3, citing the ongoing success of the government’s macroeconomic stabilisation programme.
GLA |
If we are not going into the oil business then it seems we might be going into the gold business lol |
Are we going to 20 pounds now? |
Argentina loses last-ditch battle to block $300mn seizure in US
"By far the largest judgment facing Argentina is $16bn awarded by a New York court in 2023 to former shareholders in YPF, which was renationalised by the Argentine government in 2012.
While Argentina is appealing against that judgment, the claimants — largely financed by litigation funder Burford Capital — have launched a sweeping search for assets that could be seized, including asking the court for permission to seize the state’s YPF shares.
The petition the Supreme Court declined to hear on Monday related to the proposed seizure of more than $300mn that Argentina holds in the custody of the New York Federal Reserve." |
a bit on the low side in my opinion, |
Suspect Deepseek is a Deepfake! |
Is this going back to 20 pounds yet??!! |
In other news today, there was a flight to quality in the stock market amidst rumours that a group of Chinese kids created the Deepseek platform for $6m that outperformed current LLMs that hyperscalers had spent tens of billions of US$ on. |
Seb on XThe U.S. Supreme Court rejects Argentina's appeal in a case related to holdouts and the seizure of collateral from Brady Bonds. Creditors will soon take possession of USD 310 million deposited in Federal Reserve accounts in New York, the U.S., Germany, and Switzerland. This marks Argentina's second defeat before a Supreme Court in the past three months. In October, the UK Supreme Court ruled against the country in the GDP Coupon case |
hxxps://buenosairesherald.com/economics/ypf-case-argentina-to-reveal-gold-reserve-data-to-hedge-fund
Argentina has agreed to provide hedge fund Burford Capital with information on the Central Bank’s gold reserves and other assets following an order from New York Judge Loretta Preska.
The hedge fund is claiming some of the country’s assets as partial payment of the US$16.1 billion Argentina was ordered to pay after losing a lawsuit in 2023 over the expropriation of energy company YPF.
Argentina has repeatedly refused to hand over the data, but Preska’s order last week put an end to the delays. On Wednesday, the judge kickstarted a discovery process, ordering Argentina to produce information on its potential assets. Burford will review the data and decide whether the country has goods it could demand as partial payment.
Among the documents Argentina has been required to turn over so far are case files from a separate case, which the country also lost in 2023. In that lawsuit, the Bahamas-based Bainbridge Fund won a claim against Argentina regarding US$95 million of defaulted debt securities. Earlier this month, Preska said the documents might contain information on Argentine assets that Burford could claim.
Preska also ordered Argentina to gather SWIFT (the main messaging network for international payments) data for “diplomatic, consular, and military accounts outside of Argentina and the United States from third-party financial institutions” and documents about the country’s accounts in the U.S. by February 7, and to compile information based on that data within two weeks of receiving it.
Argentina had argued that the Central Bank and the Republic are legally separate entities, meaning that the gold reserves do not belong to the government and their details are confidential. Preska said that Argentina “shall produce its own documents concerning the reserves” nonetheless.
Burford had pushed back against this contention. They argued that, last July, Economy Minister Luis Caputo confirmed during a television interview that the Central Bank had moved some of its gold overseas. This, they said, showed that he had information about the reserves while also representing Argentina’s government.
[This is evidence that the 'alter ego' argument (also being used against YPF) 'has legs']
All good stuff, AFAICS.
GLA |
Finally, Copilot gave this excellent summary of the case :
hxxps://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/petersen-v.-argentina-unpacking-a-16-billion-judgment
ATB |
And this, from last June :
hxxps://totalnewsagency.com/2024/05/17/quien-es-el-banquero-argentino-que-mediara-en-el-juicio-de-burford-por-ypf/
Mato's a player.
.."The lawsuit of the Burford Capital fund against Argentina for the expropriation of YPF is entering decisive stages. In the next few hours it will be reported that the Argentine Gerardo ‘Gerry’ Mato will act as ‘mediator̵7; or ‘facilitator’ between the parties to reach an agreement as quickly as possible and to avoid the high cost that this lawsuit could have for the tax coffers.
Mato is one of the highest-ranking Argentines on Wall Street. He was the CEO and Chairman of HSBC for the Americas. He also served as Chairman of the Atlantic Council for Latin America, a non-partisan organisation of leaders in the United States that seeks solutions to global challenges.
He was an active participant in international financing for Argentina and also assisted in the 2020 debt restructuring under Alberto Fernandez.
IN 2023, MATO HOSTED THE MAIN CANDIDATES AND THEIR TEAMS, OF DIFFERENT POLITICAL COLOURS, AT HIS HOME IN CONNECTICUT AND MET WITH INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS'.
GLA and ATB |
Interesting move (per Seb)...Change at the top in Argentina's defence team.
hxxps://www.lapoliticaonline.com/economia/barra-ypf/
The return to Zannini's strategy for the YPF trial, behind Barra's downfall
The departure of the attorney general and the change of strategy of the Argentine defence in the YPF expropriation case.
Rodolfo Barra was removed from his post per social networks. The person who until Friday was the national prosecutor is asking for the formalities of the case to be complied with. In the midst of so much confusion, disparate versions circulate about the reasons for his departure.
However, the explanations linking Barra's removal to the case of the expropriation of YPF sound more solid. The chronology of events supports this theory.
The Attorney General's Office is the ‘defence lawyer’ of the Argentine state. As such, it is the body responsible for Argentina's judicial strategy in this litigation. When Barra took office, he decided to continue the strategy inherited from the previous administration under Carlos ‘El Chino’ Zannini. Argentina argued before Loretta Preska's court that the expropriation was a sovereign decision that should be settled in the Argentine courts.
The final judgement in the first instance obliges Argentina to pay USD 16 billion to the Burford Fund. Both parties are very clear that the figure is unpayable, but that does not exclude negotiations to reach a possible agreement.
In fact, the Burford Fund has hired a well-known figure in the libertarian world as its interlocutor. This is Gerardo ‘Gerry’ Mato, a former HSBC executive approached by Macri to provide Milei with resources for his campaign, as LPO exclusively revealed.
‘Milei wants to pay and Burford knows it. The negotiations are on a parallel track and Preska is nothing more than a new procedure, where there is still nothing concrete. The question is in what order of priorities Milei is going to put agreeing a payment plan with Burford, and how much effort it will take for the Argentine economy. The worrying thing is that on both sides, there is a lot of enthusiasm,’ a source familiar with the negotiations told LPO.
It seems no coincidence that on the eve of Barra's ejection,Argentina's defence has shown a U-turn by agreeing to provide the information requested by Preska about the gold sent to London that was revealed by us. Until now, Argentina has invoked immunity to protect national sovereign assets.
Maybe, baby...
GLA |
Moneyweek today
View of Julian Cane, manager of the CT UK Capital & Income Trust:
A remarkable record
Burford Capital (AIM:BUR) is the leading global finance and asset management firm focused on law, mostly providing capital for litigation. Through skilful due diligence, it has a remarkable record in backing successful cases. Since it's inception through to 30 September 2024, of the cases it has backed 76% have settled in their clients' favour, 17% have gone to adjudication and won, leaving only 7% that have lost at adjudication.
This translates into very attractive returns, with an average 84% return on invested capital and 26% internal rate of return - figures that would be the envy of any investor and serve as a powerful incentive to invest in the Burford funds.
The founders have very significant shareholdings and have shown great skill and energy in developing the business, which they still lead. The valuation is not straightforward as, like ICG, it is both a financier and asset manager. Still, the stock trades on a prospective price/earnings (p/e) ratio of less than ten. |
Ashmore latest :
.."Argentina
From February, the central bank will slow the peso’s crawling peg to 1% per month from 2% currently. The crawling peg acts effectively as a floor to inflation in tradeable goods. With the peso now depreciating more slowly, inflation is likely to fall even further.
Some economists criticised the measure, worried that the currency is already overvalued with large outflows to tourism in December as a justification. In our view, this is narrow minded. If you go to Buenos Aires in December, you’ll see locals ‘never’ spend their holidays there and the devaluation of the BRL made it cheap for Argentinians to travel to Brazil for the first time in decades.
The current account is likely to remain in surplus overall andthe currency stability will support investments.
The main concern about the currency was the possibility of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) requiring a large devaluation to increase its loans to Argentina.
However, local newspaper La Nacion reported the IMF Chair Kristalina Georgieva met Javier Milei at Davos, and reported her intention to work “quickly”; to close a new programme. This statement came after the Central Bank of Argentina narrowed its crawling peg and there was no mention of foreign exchange (FX) policy in the statement...."
GLA |
This Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court will meet to decide Argentina's Brady Bond Case. Most likely, we will not know their decision until the following Friday. |
Update from Sebhttps://x.com/sebastianmaril/status/1880953858140021122?s=46&t=qXkmpQPI7zfG4kv9RLIspgWatch out for Friday 24th |
Shorts well down on last year. Clear the Trump fear discount, and I expect good things. |
This time it’s different….£25! |
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