Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[tradertrev] 19/3/2021 11:49

I see the Chronic Investor has contrived another opportunity to smear Burford in an article tipping IP Group:
So when Burford marks Petersen to the value of a transaction involving the sale and purchase of 15% of the investment, that's apparently dodgy, but when IP Group does this repeatedly involving typically smaller transactions that's absolutely fine.
Words fail me.
No doubt the upcoming content of this article was trailed.

[djderry] 18/3/2021 14:08

Maddox,thanks for your gracious reply.In future,I'll just howl at the moon!

[maddox] 18/3/2021 12:49

Hi dj,

That's very kind of you - no offense taken; and I have high regard for your opinions, that are always very welcome - whether contrary to or in agreement with mine.

I think we're all a bit frustrated with the yo-yo share price performance atm.

Regards Maddox

[tradertrev] 18/3/2021 08:55

Amazing how high BUR's beta is when the returns of the business are completely uncorrelated. Up to the short attack it (rightly, in my view) had a negative beta, but ever since has been perceived as very high risk. When the shares were above £15 one could make the case that there was high valuation risk, but that no longer applies down here. The conclusion to my mind is that the shares are still too loosely held by short-term traders and haven't yet found their way into long term institutional hands - an ongoing process.

[dagoberia] 17/3/2021 22:03

Thanks for your view Williamcooper

[djderry] 17/3/2021 21:41

Just scrolling back over my earlier comments directed to Maddox.On rereading them,they're dismissive and impolite.My apologies Maddox.Your views are as legitimate as anyone.The number of shares I own is neither here nor there.
My views might be better expressed by urging management to keep a long -term focus and work to sustain a long-term competitive advantage.Whether that involves buy-backs or not,I'm sure management will do what's in the best interests of the the company and its shareholders.

[williamcooper104] 17/3/2021 21:08

Little direct impact - credit spreads (currently v high) more important than a few basis bonds movements on gilts Larger indirect impact as Bur has a high beta and rising yields are spooking markets (was actually arguably more the pace of increase/volatility rather than the actual level of increase), so short term could impact the sp

[dagoberia] 17/3/2021 20:43

Do rising bond yields impact Burford's business? I don't think they impact the SWF agreements already in place? Do they affect BUR's bonds? I would have thought BUR's business would be relatively resilient to movements in the bond market, but i guess if it gets more expensive to borrow it would have some impact. Then again they would make more money from the asset management side? thanks for any insight

[tradertrev] 17/3/2021 17:12

How far away can an opportunistic bid be? How about a million miles. The staff would just set up elsewhere. What sort of company would bid? No bank could (conflicts of interest). Private equity couldn't (similar reasons plus unwise to operate with high leverage).

[time_traveller] 17/3/2021 16:06

How far away can a opportunistic bid be? An Argie swoop is a bit fanciful (albeit rational)!, but it does demonstrate how absurd the current price is, and how parties associated with major litigants could insider trade to a degree. I can't see how it could be stopped, especially in less scrupulous countries.

[dekle] 17/3/2021 16:06

Lets wait for the actual results next week and a further update. LIT reported yesterday and although it wasn't brilliant the comments that came with it have breathed new life into the share. Hopefully we'll be able to see the same happen here.

[rar100] 17/3/2021 15:46

Everyone with an interest here, lets put our heads together, possibly cash also to see if we can change things.

The reddit crowd in the US reckoned BUR was a buy so let's get that show on the road if at all possible. BUR doesn't seem to have a press officer worth their salt - they should be trying to make friends with the FT & Investors Chronicle (who as we know don't like BUR) and basically giving out solid facts - not too complicated that explains why they are a money magnet!

I would like to be more pro-active by contacting BUR directly, take someone out to lunch - let them know LTH's are likely to walk if things don't improve share price wise - but then tell them what they need to do, how to and when to (like tomorrow).

I just don't have the time as I work full time, and I'm not an accountant or lawyer so not really qualified, but I do know advertising and press release know how, basically you write a juicy story - bold headline, how much money you made from XYZ...

And then there is Shareholder Power - much to the fore these days.

I have the impression of BUR offices being very quiet with heads down in musty account ledgers - ok so on screen, and poring over case law etc. Forgetting the fact they are servants of shareholders and they are not doing their job.

They now have a dreadful name in some quarters, and unknown in most - CHANGE THAT NOW!

I rest my case and back to work...

[jarega85] 17/3/2021 12:28

550-560 looks like the entry point if it falls that far but will 600 gone it looks likely

[lomax99] 17/3/2021 11:50

Usual service, down on fairly pathetic volume. If it drops another couple of % I will add a few more.

[1aconic] 17/3/2021 10:26

I'm also up to figures spoken about using "million"... time for others to join in...

Agree the annual dividend is paltry, but it's not over a few years and not in the context of using outside funding that takes 40% of profit to replace it.

The SWF taking up double the slack following the BOF becoming fully committed doesn't really scream out "more cash than it needs". Hopefully it screams "more opportunities than we have cash for".

I may be missing something so interested in hearing alternate readings of that from you Maddox (or anybody else).

[djderry] 17/3/2021 07:59

Well Maddox,I've invested over half a million pounds worth here so I think I've enough for now.Thanks for the advice though.

[maddox] 16/3/2021 23:15

Let's be honest you are all arguing about how many angels can dance on a pin. Burford has realised a huge amount of cash, it has more than it needs, and the dividend is paltry in comparison.

The issue here is that the market is not attributing the value that we see in the shares - great buy some more.

Having listed in the US it might be sensible to raise funds there now - for one thing the process will raise awareness and educate potential investors.

Regards Maddox

[1aconic] 16/3/2021 08:13

I'm perhaps not as convinced that funding with bonds would be quite that easy or how funding buybacks with debt would be looked upon by the market. As William points out the credit rating is only BB. BUR's longer dated bonds currently sell below par value. I know that's partly because they aren't available in sufficient quantities for IIs and not necessarily representative. Management will hopefully aready have a better gauge of the possibilities there. The one thing that makes me think they don't necessarily think cash is abundant currently is that with the BOF now committed, balance sheet will only be taking up 8% of the slack and the SWF will be taking up 17% until a successor to the BOF is found. That all suggests BUR believe that there are more opportunities available than there is cash. It's also worth noting that in LITs interims this morning they refer to a big uptick in applications and are themselves looking for new funding options - there's an implicit stress that the fallout from Covid is going to provide a lot of upcoming opportunities. All said, I'm not disagreeing with you - I do totally agree with the principal of a buyback. Taking out some of the Invesco holding that's been pouring onto the market for the last year wouldn't be a bad thing at all. In the light of the rather strange decision to pay out 27.5m in divis I do think it's a question that should be raised. I just suspect their answer will be that investment opportunities are a higher priority.

[williamcooper104] 15/3/2021 17:22

I'm filtered - so someone else can point out that Burs BB- rating is not an investment grade rating And that the current bond yields are at low B levels

[djderry] 15/3/2021 17:01

Hi 1aconic,thank you for your message.At the risk of repeating myself (sure why not) I'm advocating a share buy-back or tender offer say,20% above current levels.This is the crucial point.A poster quoted IRR,well this,by my account ,would be an immediate 2 to 300%ROCE.
Put the shares in treasury and sell them back when everyone is clambering for them.
Those of us with substantial shareholdings need not take part.Clear out the weak holders.Consolodate the remaining shares,with every ten or hundred and sell for £600 or £6000 a share.Think Berkshire.Tell the day traders to sling their hook.
Ok,how to pay for it.Again,in a previous post I made the point that it does not have to be done at the expense of the overall portfolio.
They have discretion over the timing and amounts of a substantial portion of deployments.They were able to fund the Equity Project,$50 million for female led cases. They can fund this from a mixture of income and bonds.The 2022 bonds are due to be redeemed or,more likely,rolled over.Remember that ,since they were issued,the company has secured investment grade ratings.
In an era of ( relatively ) low interest rates,a ten year track record and exposure to an uncorrelated asset class,this will,I believe,prove to be an attractive investment for fixed-income investors.

[1aconic] 15/3/2021 07:30

DJ: on the subject of buybacks. I fully agree with the concept but just don't see where the source of funds is given the high cost of alternative capital sources (such as the SWF). However, it ocurred to me that BUR has seen fit to reinstate the dividend at a cost of about $27.5m... 1.5% of the company's current market cap. I do definitely think management has a question to answer there.

[riverman77] 13/3/2021 13:43

We know H2 was very quiet in terms of case wins, so the key thing on results day will be any sign that things have picked up in Q1. If not it will be a long wait till the H2 results in Sep/Oct (as we know BUR generally don't do trading updates).