Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[djderry] 08/4/2021 16:58

Yes,theDisciplinedInvestor,these are key questions.
If you scroll back to results day you'll see I posted ( separate posts) as I dug into the figures.The two main posts,apart from the ones regarding the actual results ,concerned the acceptance rate and unrealised gains.
Let me explain.In my view,the acceptance rate is a proxy for the rigour of the due diligence process.Are they adhering to their strict underwriting criteria? Is the originating team keeping to its standards,( the cases that walk in the door will,of course,vary),are the vetting committee as strict as previously,etc.
The acceptance rate,at less than 5% tells me the answer is a resounding ' Yes'.
I also posted on the ( 148 million) of unrealised gains.In some ways,it's one of those light bulb moments .I can't claim all the credit but, when I saw the figure ,I remembered a result's presentation a year earlier.In it,comments from the new CFO,Jim Kilman,resonated.He referred to some 50 million of unrealised gains,but that was a positive,as it indicated cash coming in.
Then,I got it.
In an opaque business,with 'lumpy' returns and uncertain timing ,there was light!
Think of it like this;At the start of the Grand National,as you try to pick a winner,you might as well stick your thumb in the air.However,as horses fall and pull up,or make headway,you get a more accurate perspective.
Then,after the final hurdle,you are given a photograph of the up-to-date situation.
And that's what Burford gives you.
Look at the process.
Virtually no write ups until the last year.
Then,on average,less than 20% of the subsequent realisation.
It's a beautiful thing.
Your questions regarding the salary and bonus granted can be answered as follows.Without being glib,this is a reassuringly well paid business.Well-paid lawyers deciding whether other well-paid lawyers should be given the opportunity to take a case,well,you know the rest.
The kind of expertise it takes to choose the right cases is at the heart of the business.The one who finds the truffle must be rewarded.

[thedisciplinedinvestor] 08/4/2021 12:37

Here are my doubts after going through the 2020 Annul Report.

Any constructive comments based on facts and not hopes or emotions are welcome!

[tnt99] 07/4/2021 08:59

Going up further today on all the good things going on up up and away

[dgdg1] 06/4/2021 23:40

Muddy Waters acting improperly? Surely not.

"Muddy Waters Capital LLC was accused in a lawsuit of profiting from shorting Solutions 30 SE while targeting the European technology services company in an “aggressive and baseless” campaign.

A Romanian company that provides back-office support for Solutions 30 said in the complaint that Carson Block’s research firm anonymously published a report alleging that Solutions 30 had multiple links to criminals and ties to money laundering.


Solutions 30’s shares slumped as much as 37% in December after the Luxembourg-based company said it hired an external auditor to review the allegations in the report. The stock soared as much as 37% on April 1 after the company said an independent auditor confirmed the allegations are unfounded.

“The extreme and irresponsible language from the report, and the commentary about it, echoed through the blogosphere, just as defendants planned,” according to the complaint filed Friday in San Francisco federal court. The lead plaintiff, Solutions 30 Eastern Europe, said the “sole purpose of this short-selling scheme” was to secure a quick, improper windfall.

Muddy Waters held a short position on Solutions 30 since about May 2019, according to the lawsuit.

The Romanian company also accuses Block of publicly smearing its Italian founder, Federico Salmoiraghi, in an open letter published in January and circulated on social media. Salmoiraghi and his company said the allegations of wrongdoing are false.


“We look forward to bringing more of Mr. Salmoiraghi’s activities into the light of day,” Block said Monday in an emailed statement.

A lawyer for Salmoiraghi and his company didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Solutions 30, which isn’t a plaintiff in the case, declined to comment.

The case is Solutions 30 Eastern Europe v. Muddy Waters Capital LLC, U.S. District Court, Northern District of California (San Francisco)."

[bogman1] 06/4/2021 21:52

Clearly some larger news in the offing, praying it's the Peterson

[qs99] 06/4/2021 19:35

Bodes well for a material move tomorrow as well hopefully! DYOR

[gersemi] 06/4/2021 19:08

RNS - hefty Director purchase

[prokartace] 06/4/2021 15:11

Maddox, I continually re-access depending on whats on the horizon such as trading updates or results. 90% of the time I will take the profit but rarely I leave the trailing stoploss and let it ride. I do,however,hate to see a good profit disappear!

[maddox] 06/4/2021 15:07

Thanks prokartace,

So your initial target is what 832p? And will you then tighten your stop-loss and let it ride when you achieve that, bank profits or will you re-assess?

Endlessly fascinated by others investing styles.

[aishah] 06/4/2021 14:01

Burford - House Of Claims:

[prokartace] 06/4/2021 13:45

It is more or less a guessing game. I buy after significant price corrections and target 25%+ profits. My current position was bought on 17/2 @£6.66 after the business update when the market initially rallied then dived. This seemed to be a very positive report so I bought the dive. I run an initial 20% stop loss which becomes a trailing stop loss on any rise from purchase price. This position is currently on a 10% profit with a now maximum loss of 10%

[gusrezo] 06/4/2021 12:52

apart from Steinhoff, Burford is involved in a class action against Wirecard in partnership with Quinn Emmanuel. And probably they have another good case with Gupta; according to the FT, Liberty House registered Internet Domains resembling commodity traders, probably to simulate fake orders and bills in order to get factoring finance from Greensill: "The registrations include gunvorsg.com, a name that resembles Gunvor, one of the world's largest oil traders. Gunvor declined to comment.
London-based trading house Concord Resources said it would send a cease and desist letter to Liberty House over the registration of concordresources.net."

[three black crows] 06/4/2021 12:04

Maddox,
I think he is playing the guessing game

[maddox] 06/4/2021 11:50

Hi prokartace,

So how have you contsructed your trade? What is your entry price, target price and stop loss?

[lomax99] 06/4/2021 11:25

Each to their own, I’m sitting tight and topping up on re-traces. The re-rating will continue, would not want to be out on this should a positive Petersen RNS land....

[stentorian] 06/4/2021 11:12

prokartace is a stoxx devotee.

[prokartace] 06/4/2021 10:14

I feel I can only use this share as a short to medium term trade because of the stigma attached to the company. I have done this several times now and as it is successful for the time being I will continue in this manner. Yes, I may miss out on potential huge gains in the future but I am guessing I will have already made that huge gain in a series of smaller gains by then and also hopefully avoided sitting for significant periods of time with big unrealised losses

[tnt99] 06/4/2021 09:36

Go burford flying back to 20 pounds as true value comes out

[lomax99] 05/4/2021 17:12

BUR are taking part in a Shares webinar seminar on 20th April:Https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/events/event/shares-investor-evening--webinar-200421

[stock surfer] 04/4/2021 18:42

So another 4 day week ahead for us, however US markets are open tomorrow! If Burford continues its journey to the moon, a norty open on Tuesday could be in sight.

[donald pond] 03/4/2021 15:22

In my experience the US market needs a wake up event to start getting particularly excited about a company. In the case of BUR, it needs some unequivocal good news. This could be the YPF case settling, or significant and sustainable waterfall fees kicking in on the funds, or even just a set of results that are great.
But we've been in a run of unclear results. Some looked great because they had a whopping YPF write up. Others looked good but showed a sharp tail off. The most recent ones look good if you exclude YPF from the previous ones but if you don't are flat.
We can understand all of this, but for new investors it looks a little tricky to grasp. On the bright side, the price rose last week and I think its almost certainly because of post-results buying rather than Steinhoff related. And we are approaching the endgame with YPF, and as Maddox explained, there are indications that a number of cases may be reaching conclusion.
So I'm quite happy to add on any weakness and be happy when its strong.

[rar100] 03/4/2021 14:06

Well I surmise that Burford gets better and better at picking the the candidates to fund through bitter experience of the ones that they have lost, so the law of averages is in their favour.

However regarding the SP, the volumes are very small now, and day trading skews things pretty widely imho not just by PI's, a negative press report does that too - FT and IC - like them or not they do influence a lot, BUT Moodys revalue helps and some institutions have bought in so it's looking good again for the long term. But a lot of people would be put off by the 3 year chart, and they'd be adventurous or have money to lose happily to invest based on chart history which is often the overriding yardstick to investment. I invested through great press reports and a chart going north strongly - my usual criteria, it just makes sense and is 'safe'. I particularly liked the 'new asset class' phrase. Good to see more favourable press reports recently too.

Here's to the next triggering event!

[donald pond] 03/4/2021 13:12

On Maddox's point, they only revalue when there is a triggering event, so either selling part of the claim to a third party and thus establishing some sort of fair market price, or a court decision being made. These decisions are usually going to be preliminary matters: strike outs, summary judgments, jurisdiction battles, even judgments subject to further appeals I guess. But if the write up is positive it indicates that Burford is winning the battle to have the case heard on its terms. And given that legal fees tend to follow an exponential pattern, ramping up as the final hearing nears, it augers well for the prospect of good outcomes in the near term