Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[lomax99] 12/4/2021 10:36

Another top up by Directors,

[rar100] 12/4/2021 09:13

'Perhaps YPF' are the operative words
Be nice if it were fact

[three black crows] 11/4/2021 21:27

If there is news of a negotiated settlement, the shares recently bought by the directors would certainly be of good timing.

[dekle] 11/4/2021 20:17

What does that suggest? Negotiated settlement in progress?

[jockthescot75] 11/4/2021 19:26

Interesting news, copied from Renegade on the LSE board:

The news of the case for the expropriation of YPF was advanced. Minutes ago, both parties asked Judge Preska for more time (4/30) to present the news planned for next week.

Next week there will be news in the case for the PBI Coupon and perhaps in the case for the expropriation of YPF. - In total, there are claims against the State for almost USD 5,000 million.

[tradertrev] 09/4/2021 20:01

bestace, thanks for your interesting thoughts on how to evaluate the Burford business. It's very interesting that conventional ex-ante analysis will usually apply many cautious discounts and undercook the valuation. What I think you are driving at is what I like to call ante ex-post analysis. i.e. trying to look forward to what you will actually be looking back on in the future. With a good understanding of the business together with accumulated evidence from track record you will typically remove significant discounts that are applied in ex-ante analysis.
While this could easily be dismissed as just finding a way to be more bullish about something, I would argue that this is simply using better knowledge about a business to come up with a more insightful valuation.
I can't give you my ante ex-post valuation for Burford but like you I think it is way above the current share price.

[rar100] 09/4/2021 16:39

Shame the volumes are low...

[riverman77] 09/4/2021 15:24

Papy02 - I believe Burford has historically generated a return on equity of around 20-25%. For me that is the key measure as it takes account of the operating expenses (unlike the IRR that Burford tends to focus on).

[epo001] 09/4/2021 13:55

Bestace, are you sure you are in the right place? That was intelligent, informative, interesting and well reasoned. Made me realise how sloppy much of my 'research' is.Thank you.

[williamcooper104] 09/4/2021 09:36

If you don't fair value then you use contract accounting which means taking a greater proportion of costs out of the P&L and onto the balance sheet There are pros and cons of both accounting approaches LitFin is a relatively new business model, and ought over time to refine its own proforma accounting conventions/adjustments Certainly BUR have gone a long way into making their accounts more easily readable

[papy02] 09/4/2021 09:31

Good post Bestace, thank you. Has anyone estimated the ROCE for the Burford core business (balance sheet, direct portfolio)? If you start with the IRR of around 30% then deduct a fair share of expenses, I get well north of 20%. Which alongside the growth rate means it should be valued at a much higher multiple than the current share price

(Health warning: I’m not an accounting expert, far from it! I allocated operating expenses pro-rata to revenue, which is probably conservative for the above purposes I did that as not sure how Burford does it, but seeing all finance expense in the Other/corporate bucket makes me wonder)

[alter ego] 09/4/2021 08:32

Superb logic bestace. Thank you.

[williamcooper104] 08/4/2021 22:14

IMMFF - Omni Bridgeway melted up 9 percent today

[devalpha] 08/4/2021 19:33

TheDisciplinedInvestor..........I think you've also got to factor in and account for the increase of portfolio size from the initial 2009 capital raising of $130m to the current $4500m.This has been achieved by adding not just the bond capital to the initial $130m equity, but also by adding in a substantial amount of cash generated from investment returns over the last 11 years.Granted, most of Burford's expenses, approx 75%, are wages, but in this game, that's always going to be the case.What will ultimately determine Burford's long term success will be the case selection and underwriting skill which I'm happy to pay up for.

[djderry] 08/4/2021 16:58

Yes,theDisciplinedInvestor,these are key questions.
If you scroll back to results day you'll see I posted ( separate posts) as I dug into the figures.The two main posts,apart from the ones regarding the actual results ,concerned the acceptance rate and unrealised gains.
Let me explain.In my view,the acceptance rate is a proxy for the rigour of the due diligence process.Are they adhering to their strict underwriting criteria? Is the originating team keeping to its standards,( the cases that walk in the door will,of course,vary),are the vetting committee as strict as previously,etc.
The acceptance rate,at less than 5% tells me the answer is a resounding ' Yes'.
I also posted on the ( 148 million) of unrealised gains.In some ways,it's one of those light bulb moments .I can't claim all the credit but, when I saw the figure ,I remembered a result's presentation a year earlier.In it,comments from the new CFO,Jim Kilman,resonated.He referred to some 50 million of unrealised gains,but that was a positive,as it indicated cash coming in.
Then,I got it.
In an opaque business,with 'lumpy' returns and uncertain timing ,there was light!
Think of it like this;At the start of the Grand National,as you try to pick a winner,you might as well stick your thumb in the air.However,as horses fall and pull up,or make headway,you get a more accurate perspective.
Then,after the final hurdle,you are given a photograph of the up-to-date situation.
And that's what Burford gives you.
Look at the process.
Virtually no write ups until the last year.
Then,on average,less than 20% of the subsequent realisation.
It's a beautiful thing.
Your questions regarding the salary and bonus granted can be answered as follows.Without being glib,this is a reassuringly well paid business.Well-paid lawyers deciding whether other well-paid lawyers should be given the opportunity to take a case,well,you know the rest.
The kind of expertise it takes to choose the right cases is at the heart of the business.The one who finds the truffle must be rewarded.

[thedisciplinedinvestor] 08/4/2021 12:37

Here are my doubts after going through the 2020 Annul Report.

Any constructive comments based on facts and not hopes or emotions are welcome!

[tnt99] 07/4/2021 08:59

Going up further today on all the good things going on up up and away

[dgdg1] 06/4/2021 23:40

Muddy Waters acting improperly? Surely not.

"Muddy Waters Capital LLC was accused in a lawsuit of profiting from shorting Solutions 30 SE while targeting the European technology services company in an “aggressive and baseless” campaign.

A Romanian company that provides back-office support for Solutions 30 said in the complaint that Carson Block’s research firm anonymously published a report alleging that Solutions 30 had multiple links to criminals and ties to money laundering.


Solutions 30’s shares slumped as much as 37% in December after the Luxembourg-based company said it hired an external auditor to review the allegations in the report. The stock soared as much as 37% on April 1 after the company said an independent auditor confirmed the allegations are unfounded.

“The extreme and irresponsible language from the report, and the commentary about it, echoed through the blogosphere, just as defendants planned,” according to the complaint filed Friday in San Francisco federal court. The lead plaintiff, Solutions 30 Eastern Europe, said the “sole purpose of this short-selling scheme” was to secure a quick, improper windfall.

Muddy Waters held a short position on Solutions 30 since about May 2019, according to the lawsuit.

The Romanian company also accuses Block of publicly smearing its Italian founder, Federico Salmoiraghi, in an open letter published in January and circulated on social media. Salmoiraghi and his company said the allegations of wrongdoing are false.


“We look forward to bringing more of Mr. Salmoiraghi’s activities into the light of day,” Block said Monday in an emailed statement.

A lawyer for Salmoiraghi and his company didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Solutions 30, which isn’t a plaintiff in the case, declined to comment.

The case is Solutions 30 Eastern Europe v. Muddy Waters Capital LLC, U.S. District Court, Northern District of California (San Francisco)."

[bogman1] 06/4/2021 21:52

Clearly some larger news in the offing, praying it's the Peterson

[qs99] 06/4/2021 19:35

Bodes well for a material move tomorrow as well hopefully! DYOR

[gersemi] 06/4/2021 19:08

RNS - hefty Director purchase

[prokartace] 06/4/2021 15:11

Maddox, I continually re-access depending on whats on the horizon such as trading updates or results. 90% of the time I will take the profit but rarely I leave the trailing stoploss and let it ride. I do,however,hate to see a good profit disappear!

[maddox] 06/4/2021 15:07

Thanks prokartace,

So your initial target is what 832p? And will you then tighten your stop-loss and let it ride when you achieve that, bank profits or will you re-assess?

Endlessly fascinated by others investing styles.

[aishah] 06/4/2021 14:01

Burford - House Of Claims: