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BUR Burford Capital Limited

1,095.00
24.00 (2.24%)
Last Updated: 15:11:39
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Burford Capital Limited LSE:BUR London Ordinary Share GG00BMGYLN96 ORD NPV (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  24.00 2.24% 1,095.00 35,655 15:11:39
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
1,094.00 1,096.00 1,096.00 1,068.00 1,090.00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Unit Inv Tr, Closed-end Mgmt USD 561.79M USD 146.48M USD 0.6676 16.36 2.35B
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
15:11:39 AT 171 1,095.00 GBX

Burford Capital (BUR) Latest News

Burford Capital (BUR) Discussions and Chat

Burford Capital Forums and Chat

Date Time Title Posts
18/3/202520:24BURFORD CAPITAL :::::::::::::::::::::::::: Litigation Funding26,726
04/10/202314:38YPF Monetization2
20/9/202320:07Burford Capital - Argentina Interest Watch1
20/9/202318:03Burford Capital - Argentina Interest Watch-
06/8/202310:30Payment -

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Burford Capital (BUR) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
15:11:391,095.001711,872.45AT
15:11:001,096.425475,997.41O
15:09:011,096.001201,315.20AT
15:09:011,096.0050548.00AT
15:08:571,096.055005,480.25O

Burford Capital (BUR) Top Chat Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 17/3/2025 14:55 by tnt99
Share price purchase starting great news should push the shares up to the 20 quid area which should in my opinion be fair value on the profits and cash recieved by now If burford receives a positive YPf result should go over 30 pounds Here hoping!!!
Posted at 02/3/2025 16:18 by extrader
Hat tip to Blue Wiley for this, ex Greenhaven, a$ 10B 'family office turned investment co'
hxxps://www.insidermonkey.com/hedge-fund/greenhaven+associates/385/


Burford (BUR) - Burford isn't just "getting there" - they're already the leader in litigation finance with a 27% historical gross IRR and losses on only 13% of cases, according to their disclosures. I have gone out of my way in past letters to highlight just how good the company has been historically at financing litigation. They rarely lose money on cases, in part because the vast majority (76%) settle. They do, however, occasionally have "monster winners" that return 10X, 50X or even 100X their initial investment.

Burford's leadership team personally owns stock totaling 9% (>$200M) of the company and has been a net buyer of the shares. With aligned insider ownership, historically low loss rates, and tangible book value making up more than 80% of their share price, Burford is a well-capitalized and sustainable business.

In 2024, Burford was worse than "dead money" as it posted a share price decline. It is rarely easy to isolate the cause of a share price decline, but apparently investors had some consternation over the slowing pace of investments in new cases.

While I have tried to focus our attention on Burford's current and future business, I think it is time to look deeper at the YPF case.

The general facts of the YPF case are not disputed. YPF is an oil company operating in Argentina that was publicly traded In 2012, Argentina nationalized the company and gave no compensation to existing shareholders. Burford has been financing the case of the shareholders against Argentina. YPF still exists, and the Argentinian government has benefited for more than a decade from the shares they stole/nationalized without compensation.

This litigation against Argentina has gone on for years, including appeals by Argentina disputing if Burford even has the right to collect and if the U.S. courts have jurisdiction. The plaintiffs Burford financed were ultimately awarded $16B, which is earning $1B per year in interest. In round numbers, a full payout would likely be worth more than S6B for Burford, or $25+ per share. To put this in perspective, this is double where the shares ended the year for a single case in Burford's portfolio. We can debate the magnitude and timing of the ultimate payout, but I believe the expected value is not $O.

Clearly the market is not pricing in a full settlement with Argentina. The Argentinian government has used every delay tactic legally available to them. Argentina also does not have the money to pay Burford or other YPF claimants. However, things are improving in Argentina. Under President Javier Milei, who came into office in December 2023, there already has been broad regulatory reform, and are working towards getting the country's fiscal house in order. Milei has shrunk the size of government and just reported its first budget surplus in 14 years!

Milei wants to be welcome in international circles. He goes to the "global conference" in Davos, Switzerland, and has named his dog Milton Friedman. To realize his ambitions, he will need to work with the IMF and global capital markets, which would be easier with a successful resolution of the YPF case where a previous regime unambiguously stole from foreign shareholders who have not yet received any restitution. I believe there is a deal to be had.

To date, there have been better proxies for Argentinian reform and progress than Burford shares. The S&P's Argentina index (Merval) surged 172.52% in 2024 vs. a decline for Burford. With so many parties involved, including the Argentinian government and various U.S. courts, the range of outcomes for any Burford/YPF settlement is very wide. That said, I think there is a greater than 50% chance that we get a settlement worth at least the entire 2024 year-end share price of Burford in the next 2 years (to be paid out over years). Milei did not create this problem, but I increasingly think he will solve it.

Meanwhile, Burford has an outstanding litigation finance business that keeps chugging away by funding lawsuits with high expected value returns. I don't think BUR stays dead money, and a decent Argentina settlement could double the value of the shares overnight. We could "get there" with a step function increase in share price..."

GLA and ATB
Posted at 22/2/2025 10:23 by three black crows
TNT99 , Burford won the case , agreed, but there is still an appeal decision awaiting from Judge Preska. A Payment settlement from Argentina might not be this year, who knows ?My thinking is that it will drag on into 2026, during this period the share price is likely to steadily increase. The Fear of missing out on this upturn in the share price will see plenty piling in to benefit from the uplift. My opinion, but Bogart did refer to this
Posted at 20/12/2024 10:49 by lomax99
Moneyweek today:

Profit from righting a wrong In 2025 we should see the outcome of Burford Capital’s (LSE:BUR) litigation-funded court case against the Argentinian government, says Bruce Packard. The case dates back to the expropriation (theft) of YPF, the energy company, from investors. In September 2023 Judge Preska in New York awarded $16.1bn in damages to the plaintiff’s, of which Burford’s share could be $6.3bn (£5.3bn or £23 per share). That compares with a current market value of $3bn (£2.45bn or 1,060p per share) carried on Burford’s balance sheet.

After BUR’s win in September, Argentina filed an appeal; a decision is likely in 2025. BUR expects a negotiated result at under 100% of the judgement value, but the stock price implies either that the case will be lost on appeal or that Burford won’t be able to enforce the judgement of a US court on a sovereign state.

The firm also enjoyed a record quarter in 2024, generating cash receipts of $310m. Realisations from the core portfolio of disputes doubled year on year to $165m. Burford is a share that investors struggle to value: the price peaked at £20 per share in 2018 before slumping when Muddy Waters, the short seller, questioned the group’s fair value accounting write-ups for court cases such as the YPF dispute. Even if BUR doesn’t receive the full £23 per share from Argentina, a judgement in its favour and enforcement should validate its litigation-finance business model.
Posted at 16/12/2024 13:14 by madmax1989
I cannot share the optimism about the share price performance.
We see an intact Burford Capital that has delivered above average results in its 2024 quarterly reports. The share price is not rewarding this, which is disappointing enough as the legal pipeline is full and Burford is delivering.

The share price is fully linked to the expectation of execution in Argentina, see the recent share price collapse.

We are now entering a four-year period of dealmaking in the US and mutual expressions of sympathy between two presidents with similar economic policies. Trump has already proven that he can make autocratic decisions and get the courts behind him. I don't see the US government seeking any real enforcement, see also Séb's post from 12.11.

I still hold the stock, but I don't see any real improvement in the share price at the moment if there is no enforcement in Argentina.
Posted at 13/8/2024 16:57 by chester9
Bloomberg with thanksBurford Capital suggested that remarks by an Argentine provincial governor support its push to collect a $16 billion US court award against an oil company it argues is an "alter ego" of President Javier Milei's government. Litigation funder Burford won the judgment against Argentina last year over the 2012 nationalization of oil company YPF SA. US District Judge Loretta Preska ruled that the action violated the rights of shareholders whose interests Burford acquired. Since then, however, Burford has struggled to collect the massive award. The firm is currently trying to convince Preska to let it explore going after assets of YPF itself on the grounds that the company is essentially identical to the government. To that end, Burford lawyer Randy Mastro on Monday invoked recent public comments by Buenos Aires Province Governor Axel Kicillof. Read More: Burford Seeks Argentina's YPF Stake to Pay $16 Billion Award "YPF's directors are officials of President Milei," Kicillof said at a July 31 news conference, adding that they made decisions dictated by Milei. Mastro said Kicillof's statements were consistent with Burford's position. Kicillof was criticizing YPF's decision to locate a multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas plant project with Malaysia's Petronas in another province, suggesting it was a political decision. YPF, which is 51%-owned by the Argentine government, has denied the decision was political, saying that it hired international consultants to guide the choice. If Kicillof's comments prove pivotal in the case, it will hardly be the first time. The governor was deputy economy minister in 2012 and helped spearhead the YPF nationalization. At the time, he argued to congress that company by-laws requiring a nationalization to be accompanied by a tender offer to shareholders at a pre-determined price was a "bear trap," comments that were cited by Burford in its case. Burford is currently seeking further information on whether YPF is an alter ego of the Argentine government. The company argues that Preska already dismissed claims against it and says Burford is trying to relitigate the issue. The litigation funder bought the YPF shareholders' claims for $16.6 million in 2015, and its share of the judgment would be some $6.2 billion. If it can collect even part of that, Burford stands to make a massive return. But Argentina, which is also appealing the award, has a long history of stonewalling foreign judgment creditors. It fought a 15-year battle with Paul Singer's Elliott Management before reaching a $4.7 billion settlement over its 2001 sovereign debt default.
Posted at 06/8/2024 09:17 by tomtrudgian
Burford US shareholders now consist, much later than anticipated, of over 50% of shareholders outside the US. So, effective 1 Jan 25 BUR will become a US domestic issuer. What does this mean for UK shareholders? Quite a lot:

1/ Audited accounts calculated according to the globally more common International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) will no longer be produced. Audited accounts will continue, but only according the US Generally Accepted Accounting Principals (GAAP).

2/ That will mean quarterly results, already produced with three quarters unaudited, are now compulsory. Slightly less fair valuing of assets, and less emphasis on accruals and more on cash, both either way.

3/ It may also mean following standard US practices for example: Much reduced dividends, the ending of Trading Updates, and the imposition of US 15% (variable) dividend withholding tax. Probably BUR’s place of incorporation changing from Guernsey to the US, and a greater effect on the sterling share price caused by US events and the dollar exchange rate.

BUR have long believed that the overall effect will be an increase in the share price. About time, some may think.
Posted at 05/5/2024 16:10 by extrader
Hat tip to BlueWiley

Greenhaven Road Capital shareholder update

From hxxps://www.greenhavenroad.com/investor-letters

Burford (BUR) - As the ancient Greeks said, "The wheels of justice turn slowly, but grind exceedingly fine." As a litigation financer, Burford has funded a large portfolio of legal cases that are working their way through the legal process. Their largest "holding" is a judgement against Argentina related to the YPF case, for which Burford is in charge of pursuing the payout.

If Burford were to collect the full $6.2B (not including post-judgement interest accruing at ~5% per year), this windfall would be worth $28 per share. To be clear, especially given Argentina's history in cases of this type, it is my expectation that Burford will take a haircut in a negotiated settlement. Interestingly, Burford's CIO Jonothan Molot appears on the visitor logs for senior Argentinian officials

(hxxps://audiencias.mininterior.gob.ar/buscar?q=molot)..

at least they are talking.

While the YPF judgment is a massive asset for Burford, it is far from the only case that should start gaining more traction in the near term. Despite receiving $242M of proceeds from $135M of pre-2020 vintage deployments in 2023, Burford still has ~$782M of deployments remaining in that vintage that we should start seeing flow through the P&L in the form of realizations as courts are now fully re-opened and cases delayed by the pandemic conclude.

Similar to the inevitable growth of KKR, excluding a change of law limiting litigation finance, I believe that Burford should continue to grow because of corporate manager incentives. They are solving two problems, particularly for public companies. First, legal cases are a drain on current year P&L. Thus, if a CEO or CFO wants to preserve this year's earnings, they can have Burford pay the legal expenses, resulting in "found money?" It is easy to see a CEO hugging the General Counsel and CFO when they tell him/her that they found the money to "save" the year simply by partnering with Burford.

The second problem is that the market does not generally attribute value to pending legal cases, and GAAP accounting does not help. However, if you sell a portion of the potential outcome to Burford for cash, the market does value that. Want to
"strengthen" your balance sheet, at least optically, for the market or lenders? Sell a part of your case to Burford. One Fortune 50 company partnered with Burford last year for a $325M commitment to their case.

Right now, Burford is the only funder with that scale. CEOs, CFOs, and General Counsels like collecting bonuses. If that means giving up some future economics to Burford, which is playing the justice-turns-slowly game, so be it. With these dynamics, I think demand will grow.

Ultimately, shareholder returns will come down to Burford's case-selection abilities, which historically have been outstanding. Since inception, only 8% of deployments have gone to adjudication and lost, resulting in a ~85% loss of capital to those line items. In contrast, 73% of deployments reached a settlement returning an average of 58% (23% IRR), and the remaining 19% reached a winning adjudication returning an average of 247% (49% IRR).

Time will tell if these high returns continue, but there is a lot of upside potential that is not being priced into shares today. The CEO seems to agree with his recent $5M purchase.

ATB
Posted at 12/2/2024 15:14 by dagoberia
Bur share price as unpredictable as ever.. rather bad news from the chicken case, I thought this would drop.. the opposite. I guess the market thinks this ruling cannot impact YPF
Posted at 28/12/2023 11:06 by laughton
So what? You think that the BUR share price would react positively to them accepting coupons on bonds issued by Argentina in settlement of their award?
Burford Capital share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

Burford Capital Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What is the current Burford Capital share price?
The current share price of Burford Capital is 1,095.00p
How many Burford Capital shares are in issue?
Burford Capital has 219,421,904 shares in issue
What is the market cap of Burford Capital?
The market capitalisation of Burford Capital is GBP 2.35B
What is the 1 year trading range for Burford Capital share price?
Burford Capital has traded in the range of 800.00p to 1,348.00p during the past year
What is the PE ratio of Burford Capital?
The price to earnings ratio of Burford Capital is 16.36
What is the cash to sales ratio of Burford Capital?
The cash to sales ratio of Burford Capital is 4.27
What is the reporting currency for Burford Capital?
Burford Capital reports financial results in USD
What is the latest annual turnover for Burford Capital?
The latest annual turnover of Burford Capital is USD 561.79M
What is the latest annual profit for Burford Capital?
The latest annual profit of Burford Capital is USD 146.48M
What is the registered address of Burford Capital?
The registered address for Burford Capital is REGENCY COURT, GLATEGNY ESPLANADE, ST PETER PORT, GUERNSEY, GY1 1WW
What is the Burford Capital website address?
The website address for Burford Capital is www.burfordcapital.com
Which industry sector does Burford Capital operate in?
Burford Capital operates in the UNIT INV TR, CLOSED-END MGMT sector

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