Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[nigelmoat] 01/4/2021 20:09

As I have said before Mr Market appears to move the share price here with ease on small volume and no news. Today we have a move of over 10 percent on less than a half percent of share turnover. Nice when as a long term holder it's in the right direction! Can't help but think Mr Market wakes up and thinks it's the Easter break and we need to justify some good wines. Let's hope Mr Market doesn't wake up with a bad hangover on Tuesday morning.

[stentorian] 01/4/2021 19:36

rar100,

Devalpha's right - the 2020 AR is a must read. At 225 pages at is a lot but bear in mind that the Form 20-F is included. FY19 was only 160 pages. FY10 was just 32 pages - bless!

Do you know how many sidecars BUR have?

[devalpha] 01/4/2021 18:54

rar100Have you read the FY20 annual report?If not, then I suggest you put in the work and read it asap.If you do this, you'll find the answers to a lot of the questions you're asking on here.Another tip....read chapter 15 of the Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel. It's the best piece I've read on how to think about volatility since Ben Graham's Mr Market analogy.

[rar100] 01/4/2021 17:46

Thanks for that Stentorian,
I'm very pleased with the rise today, hope it won't be profit taking on Tuesday
It's these figures that are concerning, hopefully next interims are v good


Annual Returns % (GBP)31/03/2021
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Burford Capital Ltd 196.35 102.51 44.51 -56.39 -0.14 -11.67
FTSE 100 TR GBP 19.07 11.95 -8.73 17.32 -11.55 -

[ptolemy] 01/4/2021 17:05

Nerdy fact. Today was the largest daily gain since 7 May 2020. And the 10th largest since 24 July 2018.

[stentorian] 01/4/2021 15:45

rar100, see page 33 of the 2020 Annual report (page 51 of the PDF)

"Current portfolio
We count each of our contractual relationships as an “asset”, although many such relationships are composed of multiple underlying litigation matters that are often cross-collateralized rather than reliant on the performance of a single matter. As of December 31, 2020, our Burford only balance sheet portfolio consisted of 159 assets held directly and four other assets held indirectly through our investment in the Strategic Value fund."

page 47 of the 2020 Annual Report (page 65 of the PDF) there is a case breakdown by geography, currency, type and industry. "Burford only" cases are 2,886.

[compo62] 01/4/2021 15:37

Glad I am not a day trader - I would have bet my shirt on the usual collapse in the afternoon. I would have given it zero chance of continuing up to £7. Certainly seems to be a shift in sentiment somewhere...

[geraldus] 01/4/2021 15:12

Something brewing - if it can hold.

[ozzmosiz] 01/4/2021 14:48

*wrong thread*

[johnbuythedips] 01/4/2021 13:43

This looks like a correction with some decent volume going through. The chart looks a lot different now to last week! - whatever the time frame.

[rar100] 01/4/2021 13:41

Does anyone know how many cases of all sorts that are on-going, I thought it was in the 100's globally.

[compo62] 01/4/2021 13:24

The fall to below £6 was hard to justify. I am not going to stress about justifying the recovery. If this relatively modest settlement is the catalyst - a reminder of how much cash this company is generating as "business as usual" - then it is about time imo.

[galatea99] 01/4/2021 12:18

Donald, the way I read that article is that the €943m is a proposed global settlement, covering all claims against Steinhoff, of which the four claimant groups that have accepted (Burford's being one) form only part.

[lomax99] 01/4/2021 12:17

Perhaps the penny is dropping?

[alfredomega] 01/4/2021 12:15

@donald Yes, it doesn't seem so big gain to move the price a 7% up. Besides, one of the plaintiffs Dublin-based Hamilton doesn't accept the settlement. Is there anything else or just the market?

[donald pond] 01/4/2021 11:56

That Steinhoff case. Settlement is €943, split across 4 main groups. If we assume the groups are of equal size, BURs group should get around €235m. From that, BUR will pay its legal fees (assume €10m) and take 30% of the rest, so just shy of €70m. That's the best rule of thumb you can come up with in the absence of the inside track

[dgdg1] 01/4/2021 11:08

Galatea, interesting post there thanks. Do you have any more details about the Steinhoff case i.e. how much money is at stake and how much is Burford likely to earn? Thanks

[stock surfer] 01/4/2021 10:51

So, who bought the dip?! Up, up and away we go! Brace for the impact on the moon chaps.

[rar100] 01/4/2021 10:10

I did actually wonder that myself as I was typing it, oh dear - hope that wont jeopardize Morgan Stanley from their imminent purchase of 500,000 shares that a good friend on mine in the US told me about last night.
Thanks for putting me right Ozz

[tnt99] 01/4/2021 10:08

Up up and away Go burford you know it makes sense

[ozzmosiz] 01/4/2021 09:50

Peanuts do not grow into trees actually, just saying ;)

[rar100] 01/4/2021 09:45

It is good to see the share price rise but as Scuba said, the directors buys are peanuts and the share price is still peanuts, all the good news is great but the share price is still WAY out of kilter.

Hopefully this is real momentum, this is what BUR needs - the herd instinct coming to play in that institutions will wake up to it's value now.

Peanuts do grow into trees...the lucky ones

[donald pond] 01/4/2021 07:40

It is definitely looking like there is strong support around 580, and we had a double top around £8. The last few days have been consistently strong: probably CB and JMs buys have helped, as at have the EBT, and the debt news and rating agency upgrade. But my feeling is that there aren't many sellers left at these levels. We've had 3 sets of results since the MW debacle, and anyone looking to exit on any sort of bounce has probably done so. My feeling is that this might be the start of a new long term uptrend and I'm very tempted for my 2021 ISA