Lebanon Bonds Hold Ground After Deadly Explosion
05 August 2020 - 7:40PM
Dow Jones News
By Julia-Ambra Verlaine
Lebanon's sovereign bonds held steady early Wednesday following
a deadly explosion in Beirut that threatened to exacerbate the
economic crisis raging in the country.
The blast in the capital port that killed at least 100 people
and injured thousands marked the latest hardship to the Middle
Eastern state, which defaulted on its debt in March and is
struggling to save its economy from financial collapse.
Lebanon missed payment on more than $1 billion of U.S.
dollar-denominated bonds in March -- the first time the country
ever failed to pay its debt. At the same time the Lebanese
government said it would stop paying all commercial foreign
currency debt obligations. These total about $31 billion, according
to S&P Global. Beirut also skipped interest payments on several
bonds in May and June.
Lebanon's bonds due in 2030 trade about 17 cents on the dollar.
Credit rating agency S&P Global in July downgraded billions of
dollars of bonds coming due between now and 2035, citing a lack of
progress on debt-restructuring negotiations between the Lebanese
government and creditors.
The largest holders of Lebanese bonds include London-based asset
manager Ashmore Group and Fidelity Investments, according to
FactSet.
"In the absence of a comprehensive restructuring plan backed by
all key political institutions and parties, and external support,
we continue to expect the negotiation process will be drawn out
beyond 2020," said S&P credit analyst Zahabia Gupta.
Lebanon borrowed heavily over the years from local banks, which
used unusually high interest rates to attract dollar deposits from
the country's overseas diaspora. Then anticorruption protests shook
the country and investors fled. Without the inflow of fresh
dollars, Lebanon's financial system began to seize and the country
defaulted.
Lebanese debt is a small slice of emerging-market indexes. The
Middle Eastern state had 0.37% weighting in JPMorgan's widely
tracked EMBI Global Diversified Index as of July 31, down from
0.64% in February. Indonesia, Mexico and China account for the top
three in the index.
But the explosion marked the latest difficulty to strike
developing markets, which are already under pressure from the
global coronavirus pandemic and declining oil prices. Analysts
forecast deep economic contractions for many emerging-market
economies in 2020 and Argentina this week agreed to a $65 billion
restructuring deal with creditors.
Foreign investors piled into emerging-market debt over the past
decade seeking higher returns as central banks in developed
economies slashed interest rates to stimulate growth. Trillions of
dollars of debt around the world carries negative yields, with
JPMorgan Chase & Co. research analysts saying the pile has
grown in recent weeks.
That made high yields in emerging markets appealing to
investors. Debt issued by Lebanon yields up to 7%, while the
benchmark 10-year Treasury note traded Wednesday at around 0.54%,
according to Tradeweb. Before March, when the coronavirus pandemic
sent markets in a tailspin, the 10-year was yielding little above
1%.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 05, 2020 14:25 ET (18:25 GMT)
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