Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Trinity Exploration & Production Plc LSE:TRIN London Ordinary Share GB00B8JG4R91 ORD USD0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.125 -1.01% 12.25 354,282 09:19:15
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
12.00 12.50 12.875 12.25 12.375
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 48.18 -10.60 -1.51 48
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:04:06 O 24,189 12.365 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
21/4/202119:25Trinity: OIL PRODUCER 20201,985
20/4/202118:38Trinity Exploration - bickering thread 2020691
08/3/202116:06Trinity Going to 1p3
10/12/202021:46Trinity Exploration & Production 20188,953
02/4/201916:49Trinity Exploration & Production PLC6,470

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Trinity Exploration & Pr... Daily Update: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker TRIN. The last closing price for Trinity Exploration & Pr... was 12.38p.
Trinity Exploration & Production Plc has a 4 week average price of 11.63p and a 12 week average price of 10.05p.
The 1 year high share price is 16.63p while the 1 year low share price is currently 5.50p.
There are currently 388,794,303 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 1,209,919 shares. The market capitalisation of Trinity Exploration & Production Plc is £47,627,302.12.
milanista11: Sometimes some aggressive information campaign also in collaboration with a broker and financial institutions would push the share price up. If the offshore projects work in full there is a maximal production of 10000 bbls. /per day. Therefore 60% attributable to Trin = 6000 bbls. /day. Plus the increase of production onshore of roughly 4000 bbls. /day than there is a overall increase of 10000 bbls. /day. Assuming production costs of 25 Usd/bbl and a selling price of 60 Usd/bbl there is a gross margin of 35 Usd /bbl. To be conservative I assume a net margin of 20 Usd deducting the 15 Usd for depreciation of equipment and contingencies. 20 Usd/bbl margin to a production of 10000 daily =200000 Usd per day x 360 = 72 million Usd. Maybe this is propaganda but you could drop the net earnings to a third meaning 24 million of Usd. This is enormous compared with the market capitalization of around 50 million GBP. The share price would skyrocket. Touchstone worked with this system and look where is the share price. Of course when there is a setback the share price suffers but they are still 3 to 4 times the capitalization of Trin and they have far less production and I think Trin has the better project pipeline.
milanista11: I do not want to bash the management of Trin, I want only show some propositions of improvement. Trin is quoted in a special section of the LSE where daily only 4 auctions are executed at set hours. No continuous trading. So it happens that the asking and bidding price do not match. It happened therefore I had an order pending which was higher than an executed one. Go figure. When the auction time is over no trading possible and as a consequence the trader adapt the price to the lower quote in the case if. Therefore lower execution prices, low turnover as some trade not executed. Example today: ask/bid 13.00/14.00 execution at 13.50p, I put order at 13.25p, later on I see execution at 13.00p and my valid order of 13.25p not executed. Ask/bid now at 13.00/13.20. I adapt my asking price to 13.10p. I take advantage the share price is languishing at the moment to fetch a bargain price. Second, the management should promote more the achievements and the potential of Trin through the business channels, paid or not like Proactive Investors.
milanista11: Too solid results for my taste as 44 Million Usd liabilities for rehabilitation as per 31-12-2020 and around 8 million write-off on oil reserves for FY 2020. For sure not mandatory as reserves and installations with very low valuation. Until now the existing facilities on low yield oil fields are manageable with financing from the cash flow, but for the new projects there is the need of financing through equities. Therefore a higher share price is necessary for the existing shareholders. At this level the most of the profit will go to the new share holders. The management should work with brokers arranging emissions of shares. They will promote Trin and push the share price as they earn money with these emissions. Example is Touchstone Exploration with a 3 to 5 bigger capitalization and considering the last set back I think Trin has more production and the better project pipeline.
pavey ark: From IC two months ago :- "For the current year, Cenkos expects operating profit to rise to US$6.7m based on production of 3,016 bopd and an average realised oil price of US$54.40." Although the house broker did some strange things with the cash balance I'm sticking with this figure until we are told something else. There is obviously a good change of TRIN's realised price being above $54 for the year and I would suggest a multiplication factor of c. 60% to get any figure above $54 onto operating profit. If TRIN maintained 3100 bpd and achieved $58 by my calculations this would give an operating profit of $9.4m ($6.7+$2.7m) A share price of 20p equates to c. $100m market cap. With cash approaching $20m and a potential operating profit of $9.4m then as things stand 20p looks very fair.(NB as things stand today) By my calculation the share price could/should rise at least 50% before any other development are mixed into the calculations. Something that may have slipped below most people's radar is that Trin's historical West Coast assets are not being developed due to the Jubilee negotiations and the company has pointed out that they could could increase production here rapidly and at relatively low cost......I've seen a figure of c. 2500 bpd. With the Heritage deal completed (one way or another) I suspect we will get new of the development of these assets. As an added bonus: if they get the Jubilee deal then they will get access to all the data Heritage holds in the area.
milanista11: I have had TXP on the radar 2 weeks ago and found it was and is ways overpriced. Finally their oil production is lower than that of Trin and to justify a share price the 5-fold of Trin only because of some gas, is really very hazardous. Then I decided to buy some Trin. I even considered to short TXP but I show respect for these pump and pump schemes that make the share price skyrocket. Hopefully this happens to Trin. I think that with a little help of a catalyst this will go up. Even a relatively small increase in future production of 1500 bbls./day thank discoveries will put the actual solid base in a show case and the consecutive increase of earnings will push it 100% at least.
nafafa: Couldn't agree more with that analysis. Some months ago I got so frustrated with the TRIN share price performance relative to TXP, that I did jump aboard that bandwagon, but rather fortuitously substantially exited last week to free up funds for family ISAs. Needless to say, over past days we have been buying yet more TRIN shares at what seems a very advantageous price.
nocents: Indeed.This is the first year since refinancing in 2017 where concrete events are planned to lead to a real step-change in growth. SPT was previously the biggest impediment. 2/3 of production is now spt-free. WTI is tentatively stable or on an upward path perhaps. One must not forget that the BOD have a personal reason to want the share price higher. I am cynically realistic. Their share option agreement does not pay out if there is no real peer-group comparable share price growth. 2022 I think. If we languish here they get nothing. I think we may be on a sag for a while I do not believe that even we long term holders are particularly considered in the scheme of all stakeholders. History speaks for itself. But this share price will not match a big step-change in production if Jubilee/exploration bid/Echo actually come about then for the first time we will see real progress. As you say WTI will help as will favourable outcomes from bids. Q1results in 5 weeks.
nafafa: Nocents, now is a great opportunity for you to take some profit, particularly if you still have your substantial holding. That’s the beauty of a large holding, if the TRIN share price continues to rise that’s great but if it drops back, as has happened so often in the past, then you can buy back after the drop and you have realised a nice profit. I have sold £10k worth this week and followed up on ab76 tip investing in PMG, which seems to offer good potential. Good luck to all, it’s been a long wait, TRIN is in far better shape than 7 years ago when the 100m shares on issue peaked at £1.20.
nocents: Ab Quite honestly I couldn’t agree more. Your analysis is certainly not mutually exclusive to mine and I may well not be fully right in the first place. I certainly see your points about WTI / interest in in Trin as no longer a minnow as its plans become credible etc. I was sideways remarking on Trin’s history of feeding off media short term as buyers exit for sunnier climes. The story of Trin since refinancing. I am really reflecting on this new breed of short term investor which dominates low volume stocks like Trin ( notice profit-taking today) and the difficulty Trin has in holding gains. I do agree that this year is different but was saying that news is needed to keep Trin in the limelight. Institutions ( and savvy investors ) tend to look a bit further than 2-3 months. Many if the new breed only look at a month. Yes I agree fully with your analysis as well...not just to please you. I do. I am tempted to name a few contemporary oil companies who did promise and promise and have only survived by being debt-free.Share price has not recovered. I will also talk of a certain culprit called Trinity who sank $12m into a dry well ( Eldorado) in 2014...their gung-ho time. Thankfully all the old BOD have since left. Wholly different management now. So Trin did promise the pot of gold themselves and I fell for it myself!! Now? A company of credibility. IMO only real news will change the fickle market behaviour though.Trin needs rid of the 5% profiteers who depress the share price. Or it needs to encourage those who see real bounty in the medium to long term ( medium= 9/10 months). I don’t feel my points oppose yours...I just have 7 years of cynicism and weariness behind them. Things are finally coming to fruition but it was we shareholders who were on the I-V tube ( Placing) and staying faithful at our own expense. Left its mark.I am not sure if there is even one other original private investor still here from 2013 .Trin certainly took their toll from us to get where they are now. So forgive but understand my jadedness and share experience of sagging after a media burst.
ab76: Trinity Exploration & Production (TRIN:12p), an independent oil and gas explorer and producer focused on Trinidad and Tobago, has released a positive and informative pre-close trading update. Last year, Trinity’s average daily production increased 7 per cent to 3,226 barrels of oil per day (bopd) and it was profitable, too, even though the average realised oil price declined from US$58.10 to US$37.40 per barrel. That’s because the company’s operating break-even was reduced by almost $6 per barrel to an industry leading US$20.50 per barrel, the fifth consecutive year it has been below US$30 per barrel. House broker Cenkos Securities estimates Trinity made operating profits of US$3.3m and generated free cash flow of US$4.2m, no mean feat given the oil price collapse in the first half of 2020. Net cash increased by more than a quarter to US$17.5m. For the current year, Cenkos expects operating profit to rise to US$6.7m based on production of 3,016 bopd and an average realised oil price of US$54.40. However, benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has rebounded to a 12-month high of US$59.73, well above the US$56 average price embedded in Cenkos’ US$59.9m revenue estimate. The risk to both the oil price and Cenkos’ forecasts look to the upside to me. That's because global stockpiles in onshore tanks and floating storage have already fallen by 300m barrels (International Energy Agency estimates) since OPEC made production cuts last May, and a vaccine-driven demand boost is likely to tighten the market even further, one reason why the future price curve is in bullish backwardisation. A strong recovery in the oil price was one of my investment calls of 2021 (‘Reasons to be bullish’, 18 December 2020). Both WTI and Brent Crude benchmarks have surged by over 20 per cent since the start of the year. This backdrop is particularly good news for Trinity. That’s because the company is not only benefiting from Trinidad and Tobago’s reform of Supplementary Petroleum Tax – the threshold for imposition of the tax has been lifted from US$50 to US$75 per barrel – but Trinity is making decent progress developing its East Coast assets. Dynamic reservoir modelling is nearing completion on the Echo block with a view to approval of the Final Development Plan in the first half of 2021 ahead of farm-down and funding discussions. Echo has potential to produce 4,000 bopd, a gamechanger for a small operator like Trinity. I also note that Trinity and its heavyweight partner Cairn Energy (CNE) have been granted access to the data room in order to prepare and submit a development proposal for the Jubilee Field. The bid area has around 1bn barrels of estimated oil in place and forms part of the giant Trinmar group of fields that have produced over 750m barrels of oil to date and which are adjacent to Trinity’s West Coast assets in the shallow water between Trinidad and Eastern Venezuela. In addition, Trinity and Cairn Energy have submitted an expression of interest for the high impact onshore exploration play in North West District of Trinidad. Trinity’s share price rallied 60 per cent to a high of 12.8p after I last rated the shares a buy (‘Small-cap value plays’, 15 September 2020), but still trade two-thirds below Cenkos’ 30p a share core risked NAV estimate even though net cash accounts for 30 per cent of the company’s market capitalisation. This means that Trinity’s 2P (proven) reserves of 20.6m barrels are in the price for only US$2 a barrel and that valuation attributes nil value to 20.1m barrels of 2C (contingent) resources, nor any upside from the developments being pursued with Cairn. Buy. hTTps://
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