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TRIN Trinity Exploration & Production Plc

68.00
0.00 (0.00%)
13 Dec 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Trinity Exploration & Production Plc LSE:TRIN London Ordinary Share GB00BN7CJ686 ORD USD0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 68.00 0.00 00:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
  -
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- O 0 68.00 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
18/11/202421:13Trinity Exploration - bickering thread 20203,996
18/11/202421:11Trinity: OIL PRODUCER 20208,238
08/3/202116:06Trinity Going to 1p3
10/12/202021:46Trinity Exploration & Production 20188,953
02/4/201915:49Trinity Exploration & Production PLC6,470

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Trinity Exploration & Pr... (TRIN) Most Recent Trades

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Posted at 31/8/2024 11:06 by pavey ark
As a TRIN shareholder there is limited downside (famous last words).

This is an absolute steal for LO and the TXP share price has to go up 50% to trouble their bid.
That being said I would welcome any success from the TXP wells as LO will then up their bid to 75P......and still have a very, very good deal !!

If TXP really produce the goods I'm happy to go with them.

Having said all that I obviously consider the current TRIN share price to be rather silly......but what's new !!
Posted at 23/8/2024 10:14 by pavey ark
The situation is that the share price is largely in the hands of TRIN smaller shareholders and they have been battered down......have given up ???!!!

My very personal view is that if the deal with Lease Operators goes ahead purchasers today stand to gain 25%+ in four or five months which is a fantastic return rate.

If TXP manage to get their well programme to work their share price will rise ....certainly above 36p....(you can do the arithmetic).

Even if the TXP wells fail and they somehow manage to get TRIN then TRIN is such a steal for them their price will go up.....again probably above 36p.

Absolutely no guarantees in share purchases (or life) but I like the odds here.
Posted at 22/8/2024 19:58 by nocents
The present stalemate is damaging to both companies. Both share prices are reflecting this. If Txp wait until Cascadura results and they turn out not to be blindingly good then this will strengthen Trinity’s case. But do Txp want to wait that long and take that risk? Trinity offers oil, cash , cash generation and assets which could be sold or used against some tax. Seems to me Txp are weaker without Trin than vice versa as they are relying on good results, a lack of decline in production, and they have debt where Trin do not. Walking a fine line.
Lol are funding this with debt but Trin can service that debt just as they could with Txp.
I still stand by my enormous confusion about all this and the potential solution. Stalemate!
Posted at 21/8/2024 14:17 by pavey ark
We all make our own investment/trading decisions and this is a very small part of Andrew's holding.

"Obvious trade to switch to TXP"....hmmm ?

I bought some TRIN today (showing as a sell) This is in addition to my core holding.

If anyone is interested my reasoning goes like this.

1.Regardless of any share price reaction to one bid or merger going ahead TRIN is fundamentally a safer bet than TXP.

2. The exact amount is in question but TRIN is profitable (even with a totally incompetent management)and holds a fairly large cash pile.....tax loss credits and a potentially very valuable offshore asset......exact figures and worth being open to debate but worth something.

3. TXP is on a knife edge with a sizeable debt and wells that must produce.

This being said.... if we adopt a totally pragmatic approach then if TXP can produce the goods and the share price reacts then by all means let us hold hands and skip into the future......on the other hand LO are offering an all cash 68p which is 20% up on today's price.
A 20% gain over 4 or 5 months looks quite good but I can also see Andrew's point about the company being worth more and we can't share in any upside with the LO bid.
If the company is worth more and the 68p bid looks like winning there could be a greater cash bid.

TRIN holders need only wait and see and if nothing happens the share price will fall but not the company......we will then get new management in place.

Anyway....as usual..."you pays your money you takes your chance"
Posted at 12/8/2024 10:41 by sleepy
nocents - you could try contacting the Takeover Panel, pointing out the drop in the TRIN share price and asking if TRIN have any information which shareholders should be made aware of
Posted at 10/8/2024 07:40 by che7win
Andrew,
Brilliant post.

I will give my less well informed thoughts with my albeit TXP viewpoint below.

On Touchstone switching to a deal, they may well do this, but I don't see the need for them to do so at this time.
The only reason why they might do this is to force through the deal before the long stop date, but after Cascadura 3 & 4 results are known.
From my point of view, Trinity directors have now given TXP a put and call option on TRIN assets.

1. If Cascadura 3 & 4 results are great (as we expect), TXP don't need to do anything, the TXP share price will respond higher. Getting to 46p (10% higher than on day TXP announced proposed acquisition of TRIN) would be the sweet spot, sufficient to make TXP the better deal and (hopefully) TRIN reinstate the court case for TXP acquisition completion and the majority of shareholders from both companies to be reasonably happy in relation to this acquisition.

2. If they are stunningly good, there is the option/risk that TXP might walk away and avoid the dilution of acquiring TRIN altogether.
Maybe this is what LOL as outsiders to the takeover of TRIN assets hope for?

Let's say the TXP share price rises to 60p in response, TRIN share price would be 90p, TXP shareholders in this case might well lobby their board to break out of the deal as the prospect of 25% dilution becomes too much. Why would TXP shareholders want to share tremendous Cascadura upside?
TXP could at this point withdraw their deal and TRIN is left with the inferior LOL deal and the risk that it drags on or isn't approved by Trinidad authorities down the line.

3. If the results of Cas 3 & 4 are less good (or TXP share price doesn't rise sufficiently before long stop date) and TXP still want TRIN, then they might go the Contractual takeover route. This needs to be voted in and there is risk that it might not go through.

Other thoughts:

The chances of TXP raising their bid is slim to none. Maybe they might given TRIN shareholders some cash back from the TRIN balance sheet, but why would they? The deal on the table from TXP is sufficiently generous to make any higher offer unattractive to TXP.
It’s an unknown on what TXP shareholders think on the TRIN takeover. Many didn’t want this deal before Cascadura 3 & 4 provide the upside to the share price. So they might not vote for the deal. TXP management equally should have tested Cas wells 3 & 4 earlier in the year if they were intending to acquire TRIN, it’s a gap to me. I suspect TXP management made TRIN an acquisition at the 19.9% level - the best they could - to avoid TXP shareholders being required to vote on the deal.
Personally, I would not vote on any enhanced offer from TXP to TRIN shareholders.

The EGM option is a difficult one, it hinges on:
1. one’s thoughts on the Cas 3 & 4 results as this is the key and pivot point here.
2. The thoughts of the majority of TRIN shareholders. I have sufficient concerns, that apart from some TRIN shareholders such as you and Nocents, there are quite a few thinking that TRIN are in a good position here with two approaches on the table. How many TRIN shareholders want to retain upside to their assets and share in Cascadura and long term prospects rather than cash offer?
3. What would TXP leadership think, would they be supportive, they are in the driving seat thanks to this situation. Maybe they’re happier to wait…
4. Timing - is there enough time for an EGM before say end of September or sooner? Or is a later EGM going to be effective?

So TXP are in the driving seat now, and thanks to TRIN directors, they can walk away if upcoming Cascadura results beat market expectations. There is risk here that the TXP offer for TRIN that was on the table may be lost and in hindsight will look extraordinarily generous.
Which is why I find it hard to see why that the market is reading events different from me.
I don't think the TRIN share price is taking accounts of the downside risks that LOL approach has presented.
Posted at 09/8/2024 18:00 by nocents
The problem with TXP is that they need what Trinity has and is. They are not a stonking buy as they are. They have debt and Cascadura( as we know from both 3 conventional and one deep well drill) can never be deemed a dead cert. Such is the oil and gas business. Txp need Trin’s cash, cash generation, oil per se, and assets to offset tax, in order to make their original deal good value and in order to move on more steadily as a company. The opex savings themselves are millions!! Goodbye Trin BOD and NED’s, one AIM fee of $500k etc. Txp will suffer as a company without Trin. That’s why the share price is staying so low, and one cannot count on it recovering in a rush if Trin wriggle out of this and if Cascadura is not top-notch. Eventually by all means. But Trin really have shoved a weird spanner in the works here. Txp may have to match the cash offer or languish. All just my opinion. By all means disagree-is ok.
Posted at 06/8/2024 19:19 by nocents
LOL are borrowing almost all the funds needed and own some shares but just $2m towards it.
Trin will be run on debt. The govt. needs more oil. Well Services have equipment of course but where is the drilling campaign like TXP clearly has?
To run a company that provides 5% of T and T’s oil on debt?? Trin nearly went down in 2016 because debt was recalled. In 2015 the govt. refused TXP’s offer to purchase particular wells due to their perceived instability at the time.
TXP is committed to expansion. There is no information on LOL’s plans. Why should the govt. permit private ownership of 5% of its oil?! Based on debt.
Brash would make money on his shares and pocket Trin’s profits, but what does he owe the govt??
Elections are soon I believe.
Messrs Imbert, Colm and Stuart are
VERY possessive of T and T’s assets.
I could say more.
The problem is not whether my argument is agreed with, it is that the risk exists in the first place. N.B. Trin want the LOL deal to go through so they have not mentioned this.
Govt. approval is not a cert. How can it be?
Let us not forget that the whole affair is a leverage upon TXP, as Malcy mentioned. TXP need Trin in order to ease debt and fund gas and oil. Trin’s offshore assets can also be sold off. So Trin is very valuable to TXP. How valuable? We will see. Txp will not flourish fully without Trin to be sure.
Posted at 06/8/2024 09:16 by aqc888
If txp have an upcoming success as expected at Cascadadura, TRIN can accept the txp deal. The TXp price will be much higher, as it was when the deal was announced, it is a bit worrying the market has punished TXP share price so much lately, the same happened when we were all waiting for Jacobin results, which were a failure… If not they can go with lol.

It’s certainly not the way you’d want to ideally treat someone, and txp will be spitting feathers over this. However, TRIN advisors and large shareholders will be working on a plan that is advantageous to TRIN shareholders and TRIN shareholders alone.

I’d imagine in a country of only 1.5m people. With the oil sector being a micro community within that, there will be many details, personalities, rivalry’s, etc. Things we outsiders will be a lot less well informed of. What makes me comfortable in all this, is that the TRIN share price is holding up remarkably well. Which makes me think things are in play that we are not fully aware of yet.

We are effectively gambling on the future successes of TXP. Whereby we can walk off to lol at no cost if txp Cascadura ends in failure, (long date 25/1/25). Or if Cascadura ends in success we can jump onboard the txp bandwagon… It seems an ok situation for us TRIN shareholders to be in…
Posted at 06/8/2024 06:48 by che7win
Andrew, I agree in every sense.I read today's response as saying TRIN have no hand to play here. It is confirming that TXP just needs to wait this out whilst TRIN directors suck up more wasteful expenses delaying the inevitable.As too why TXP deal is better... Reread TRIN response today. The deal TXP is offering is not fixed.... It moves daily based on TXP share price....by end of September TXP production more than doubling.... Means a stronger share price. TXP share chart is bottoming.TRIN directors have time pressures above that long stop date and they know it!If I were TXP board in one sense I would be pleased with this feeble response from TRIN today.
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