Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Trinity Exploration & Production Plc LSE:TRIN London Ordinary Share GB00BN7CJ686 ORD USD0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -5.00 -3.28% 147.50 50,332 10:30:44
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
145.00 150.00 152.50 147.50 152.50
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 32.24 0.08 -0.73 57
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
10:38:35 O 676 148.00 GBX

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20/9/202111:26Trinity: OIL PRODUCER 20202,725
20/9/202111:01Trinity Exploration - bickering thread 20201,204
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Trinity Exploration & Pr... Daily Update: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker TRIN. The last closing price for Trinity Exploration & Pr... was 152.50p.
Trinity Exploration & Production Plc has a 4 week average price of 132.50p and a 12 week average price of 132.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 187.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 74p.
There are currently 38,879,431 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 111,121 shares. The market capitalisation of Trinity Exploration & Production Plc is £57,347,160.73.
ab76: I’ve just re-read the presentation notes. Things are taking a little longer than I had hoped they would (although the coronavirus is generally being blamed for more things than it’s responsible for, I can understand why it’s slowed progress down in T&T), but the timetable for events hasn’t slipped too much. It seems that we have the following events to look forward to: 1.Imminent completion of the PS4 acquisition. Since Trinity reckon that they can quickly double production in that field and generate $1.3 million in cash per year from it, completion should provide a bit of a boost. 2. In the next few weeks, formal announcement of the new Technical Committee. I don’t know what, if any effect, this will have on the share price. However, I note that Simon Thompson’s IC tip makes the point that Trinity trades at a considerable discount to its reserves compared with similar companies. I wonder whether an independent TC might reassure potential investors that the reserves are quality reserves (indeed as BD frequently pointed out, Trinity takes a very conservative approach to calculating its reserves)? 3. In October, the next quarterly update. I don’t expect it to include too much new information, but hopefully Trinity will maintain production at the current level rather than the lower end of the range indicated. 4. Also in October, maybe a bit more news about Galeota (although since the farm-down process is estimated to take six to nine months it’s now most unlikely that there’s going to be any farm-down this year). When the news does come though, I think it’s going to surprise the doubters. As Trinity confirmed yesterday, the farm-down will include the Trintes field (which produces about 1,100 bopd, has 2P reserves of 11.3 mmboe and 2C reserves of 2.8 mmboe), $164 million in tax losses, a net back rate of 43%, a new 25 year licence, additional production from Echo of about 4,000 bopd from early 2023, 2C reserves for Echo (that will become 2P when a FID is made ) of over 20 mmboe, and, subject to further exploration, the prospect of an additional 7,000 bopd from Golf/Foxtrot. It was also significant to note that NC again confirmed that Trinity will be funding Galeota from the farm-down and not from a share issue. I appreciate that there are plenty of AIM oil companies that give, and then break, such assurances, but for the most part they don’t offer a package anywhere near as attractive as the one Trinity is offering. The fact that it’s going to be marketed by professionals is a further positive sign. 5. Toward the end of the year, news on the Jubilee bid (I think Trinity have a strong package to offer the government as it seems that they wish to significantly develop their west coast assets as part of any successful Jubilee bid, which of course would mean more royalties for the government). 6. Also towards the end of the year, plans for the drilling program that will start next year. If high angle wells are capable of increasing production by a few hundred bopd and if Trinity has a few to drill (both of which have been suggested), the increase to production will be significant. Again there are plenty of AIM oil companies who announce drilling plans that are promised, but then fail, to significantly increase production. The difference here is that Trinity has a good track record and, perhaps more importantly, has spent $1.3 million acquiring and about a year carefully studying the 3D data, adding it to their already comprehensive existing data. 7. Sometime in Q1, news on the NWD onshore bid. Given that Trinity already operates in parts of that area and are carefully studying the seismic data, it seems that they have a good chance of making an appealing bid. 8. In the months that follow after that, the results of the farm-down and resumption of drilling. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look as though Trinity are expecting any further reforms to the SPT this year (NC and JB indicated yesterday that reform is likely going to be a slow process), but the improved terms to all of the licences and the existing SPT reforms are benefiting Trinity significantly. I had hoped that the share price would be in the 200s by about now and obviously that hasn’t happened (it had settled in the 170s until BD’s death). I don’t think it will be too long though. As ST indicated yesterday, Trinity is significantly undervalued on just about every metric you choose. I hope that it’s not too long before the share price recovers to at least the 170 to 180 range - the company is clearly in a stronger position than it was a couple of months ago (continued rises in the oil price will probably help).
ashkv: Unbelievably Low Price - Nearly 20% of 2021 Highs of 180p with Brent reaching for multi-year highs and back at $74.6 as I write this summary. Galeota not even factored in for even $1 in the Share Price - let alone existing production - expect year end cash to be in the $25-$30mn range if not more. My review /analysis of the results are below - Share Price - 151p Market Cap GBP - £55,600,000 GBPUSD - 1.38 Market Cap USD - $76,728,000 Cash - $19,000,000 Group's VAT receivable to USD 3.7 million - $3,700,000 Inventory - $5,400,000 Overdraft - $2,700,000 NET CASH USD - $25,400,043 TRIN Production Actual H1 2021 (Bpd) - 3,032 Enterprise Value (USD) - $51,327,957 EV/BARREL-USD H1 2021 Production - $16,929 Abandonment / Decommisioning Liability - $46,600,000 EV/BARREL-with Decommisioning Liability - $32,298
nocents: Results will probably not set Trin on fire. They will be solid. There are other growth opportunities waiting for news. They will unquestionnably set the share price alight. I mentioned some before. I have been assured by the company that plans remain the same..so essentially nothing has changed. Let people bail out. Trin is no different than before and will continue on its growth path. It just needs to re-engage with investors. There is nothing wrong here. In fact it makes it a great time to buy. I am in Ncyt. Still on a loss. If I get my money back ( long way to go) I will put it in here. Nyct shot up for specific reasons. Like Trin it is massively undervalued but had to prove its contractual growth. Trin will do the same. People should bail out if they want. But it is an error and totally unnecessary.
ashkv: Trin Trading at 145p - levels of 18 Feb 2021 When Brent $63 - Versus nearly 12% higher today and all the positive news below not accounted for in Share Price - let alone Brent / Crude strength - cheap as chips :) Very Sad News about Bruce but he was not running things day to day. Current Share Price Overlooking 10 Year License Extension Acquisition of Onshore PS-4 Block Capital Reorgnization - Shares Consolidated and Buybacks / Dividends simplified Galeota License Sanction - New 25 year Licence commencing 14 July 2021 (initial six year term with 19 year extension in accordance with the Petroleum Act) covering an area of 19,280 acres (7,802 hectares) with significantly reduced minimum work obligations and performance guarantees Less taxation / outgoings in relation to the above for existing production
ab76: I’ve been looking back at the past presentations in case they help explain how Galeota’s going to be developed. Although a farm out is clearly part of the plan, if we go back to the June 2020 presentation, Trinity provided the following answer to a written question about funding: “There are many ways to finance developments and in our North sea days at Venture we did some very innovative ones particularly with infrastructure owners, so we're sort of looking at those lines of finance as well …[as] vendor financing. There are also ways that you can get pre-pays, so basically a large institution buy some of the oil from you ahead of time at a certain discount and a certain volume, that's another way. There's traditional reserve based lending facilities at banks then of course there's our cash and there is equity. Not until we put all those ingredients into the ultimate model and look at it will we know how we're going to blend that finance but there are many ways that we can take that forward.” In terms of cost, I thought that I’d heard Bruce Dingwall say at one of the presentations that Echo was a $100 million platform, but I can’t find that. Back in February Cenkos issued a report suggesting that Trinity would incur a cash outflow of $77.8 million in 2022 to fund its share of Echo. On the basis that Trinity owned 65% of the licence then, I’d assumed that figure represented 65% of the cost. However, having looked back at last year’s presentations it’s clear now that Trinity was aiming to obtain full ownership of the licence and so perhaps, as Cenkos would probably have known that, $77.8 million is the full cost of the platform. Once the Echo platform is in place, it’s clearly Trinity’s aim to carry out exploratory work in Foxtrot and Golf, with the aim of then installing duplicate platforms (Trinity owns the platform design for Echo and it can be easily duplicated). Given that Trinity aims to be producing 30,000 bopd within a few years, you can see why they’d want to move quickly if they can with Foxtrot and Golf. A farm out should assist in speedy development of the whole of Galeota. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the existing producing Trintes field included in the farm out. Since at least May 2020 Trinity have been talking about further developing Trintes through Echo and attaching at least some of its reserves to Echo. Then at the September 2020 presentation, Mr Dingwall suggested (at about 29 minutes) that Trinity would be able to attract partners with its current production as well as near term production etc. Including Trintes would have the short term affect of reducing net production, but it would significantly increase the partner’s financial contribution to the development costs of Galeota and result in the long term benefits that would bring (incidentally it was also mentioned in one of last year’s presentations that development of the west coast assets would be linked to Jubilee, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see those assets put into any joint venture with Cairn to operate Jubilee - which might ease Trinity’s funding of that project, if they win the bid). Back in February Trinity indicated that they would arrange a Capital Markets Day to discuss Galeota and hopefully now that the licence is sorted out they will soon.
ab76: Hello PA. I don’t think I’m expecting Trinity to receive a pile of cash as part of any farm out (especially not if the cost of the Echo platform is between $100 and $120 million), but rather that the partner will pay all or a large chunk of Trinity’s share of the cost of Echo. That, of course, would still leave Trinity in a position where it’s existing cash could be spent elsewhere and would indicate to the market what Galeota is worth (which should boost the share price). It’s unfortunate that there isn’t more information available to us at the moment about the potential value of Galeota. Cenkos have so far placed a zero valuation on it (on the basis that the licence was being renewed and it’s complicated) and Trinity’s management have said, at one of the presentations earlier this year, that it’s essentially another business that would be worthy of a capital market day later in the year. I’ve looked at the amounts Trinity has previously sold oil fields for and they don’t seem to greatly assist. Several years ago, when oils prices were in a slump, they sold a field for $1.75 per barrel of 2P reserves or nearly $28,000 per barrel of oil produced per day. If you use that 2P valuation to value Galeota (which probably isn’t appropriate because Galeota will likely produce many times its current reserves, whereas the old field sold several years ago probably had limited room for expansion) it’s not worth that much (at least compared with cost of Echo), but if you use the daily production method you get a valuation above $100 million. You’d think if the higher valuation was likely more people would have noticed by now, but one of the peculiar things about markets is that things do get overlooked (perhaps especially when projects like Galeota are a long time in the making).
ab76: One final thought for today, if the Trintes field has now been merged into the Galeota licence (which is what this morning’s announcement appears to confirm) and if Trinity is planning a farm out of Galeota (which is what they’ve been saying at all of this year’s presentations), it would seem that any farm out agreement will include Trintes. If that’s right, it means that any partner will not only be acquiring a share of Echo’s 31.06 mmbbls of 2C resources (soon to become 2P once the FID is made), a share of 4,000 bopd in production from 2023, a share of the at least another 68 mmstb that Galeota’s reckoned to contain, and a share of an asset that’s had close to $30 million spent on in the past decade, but it will also get a share of Trintes’ current production of about 1,200 bopd, a share of Trintes’ 11.3 million in 2P resources and 2.8 million in 2C resources, and a share of the benefits of Trinity’s $237.2 million in tax losses. That’s got to be worth something pretty substantial, hasn’t it? Especially when you also add in improvements to the royalties payable.
nocents: “ Buy when others are fearful. Sell on exuberance”. WB But only in solid companies. Some people don’t mention that bit made very clear by Warren. I hate the way he is accoladed as he did nothing more than many others. Just on a bigger scale. It still rings true if one takes any adage flexibly and never exclusivly. Even WB sold out on Tesco 8 years ago . He lost out there. Trin is the building society of mini-oilies but with the upside no building society has. But no rush Trin...take your time...as long as it takes eh? Been through enough dark tunnels with you to know that. Yes you’re right....it always gets moved further away doesn’t it. Covid? Minister death. I’m sure other stuff too. Your post is acutely true Ross. It should be framed and handed to every novice investor. And the old hands like me who screw up ad infinitum regardless of knowing. Sell too early. Buy too soon. And get hit by the unexpected! I got SNG right last year but actually would have made more if had kept it in Trin!! But......try to learn if it doesn’t wipe you out I say ( been there too). “ Know thyself” (Socrates) “ Know the market.Umm keep trying to know the market but at least know your investment so damn well” (Nocents). Still working on the market bit. Trin share price may sag but what a great opportunity. Creditably well run company.
ab76: I’ve just had a look back to 2014 results (for the year 2013) and can see that Trinity spent $23.7 million on the exploratory well for what has become Echo (although it only owns 65% of the licence, under its terms it had to pay 100% of the exploration costs). Since then, Trinity has spent several million more and the total cost of the Echo platform, from memory, will be around $120 million. I assume that Heritage is liable for 35% of the platform cost, which means that Trinity’s share will be about $78 million. If Trinity farmed out half of its 65% share, it would follow that the acquirer would pay 32.5% of the cost of the Echo platform. However, I would hope that the price it would pay would also reflect the fact that somewhere approaching $30 million has already been spent by Trinity and that the project has been de-risked (when Trinity paid the exploration costs there was no certainty of oil). If that’s right, a farm out could see Trinity spend very little of its own money on the Echo platform, but gain 7 to 10 mmstp in 2P reserves and, from 2023, 1,300 bopd.
ab76: I’m hopeful that the forthcoming news about renewal of the Galeota licence, any farm out and the final investment decision (all of which appear, from yesterday’s presentation, to remain on target for this year) will send the share price into the 20s (or rather from Monday the 200s). Trinity currently has about 19.55 mmbbls of 2P reserves. The Echo FID should significantly increase those reserves. According to pages 37 and 38 of the Annual Report: “The TGAL discovery area (proposed Echo hub) lies in the Galeota Licence and sits within a separate Fault Block (mapped as Fault Block 6), an updip panel located to the north east of the Trintes Field, confirmed as being oil bearing in six major stacked reservoir horizons by the TGAL-1 exploration well with an internal best estimate STOIIP of 186 mmstb. “2C resources of c.22.32 mmstb gross (14.51 mmstb net) [the May presentation notes make clear that those 2C resources attach solely to Echo and not also to the potential follow on Foxtrot and Golf developments]. “2C resources are expected to be revised upwards following completion of the dynamic modelling exercise during 2021. “At FID, Trinity anticipates the net 2C resources developed by the Echo Platform would be reclassified as 2P reserves.” So we have the prospect of Galeota’s 2C reserves being revised upwards this year following completion of the dynamic modelling exercise and then reclassified as 2P reserves. Even if Trinity farms out half of its interest in Galeota, it seems realistic to assume that 2P reserves are going to increase considerably this year (from the figures in the annual report a 25% increase seems easily achievable and, dependent upon the 2C reserves jumping, perhaps even as much as 50%). Then, in 2023 Trinity will receive its share of Echo’s estimated 4,000 bopd production. Thereafter, there’s the further development of Galeota through Foxtrot and Golf.
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