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Jadestone Energy Plc LSE:JSE London Ordinary Share GB00BLR71299 ORD GBP0.001
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  -1.00 -1.47% 67.00 1,026,705 16:35:01
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
65.60 66.00 68.00 65.80 67.50
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 159.40 -41.86 -9.51 312
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
17:10:09 O 1,144 67.003 GBX
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30/11/202207:00UKREGJadestone Energy PLC Transaction in Own Shares
29/11/202207:00UKREGJadestone Energy PLC Transaction in Own Shares
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Posted at 08/12/2022 08:20 by Jadestone Energy Daily Update
Jadestone Energy Plc is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker JSE. The last closing price for Jadestone Energy was 68p.
Jadestone Energy Plc has a 4 week average price of 65.80p and a 12 week average price of 65.80p.
The 1 year high share price is 110.25p while the 1 year low share price is currently 65.80p.
There are currently 465,191,590 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 551,685 shares. The market capitalisation of Jadestone Energy Plc is £311,678,365.30.
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Posted at 07/12/2022 17:01 by jacks13
There's a lot of discussion and obsession even around the spot price of crude, in particular the quoted Brent benchmark. But spot prices are not the whole story as this article from Energy Intelligence (link below) explains.

1. Refiners need meaningful price signals to quickly assess the value of a crude. Those signals come from the oil spot market where around 40 million barrels move around the world every day. To distil price clarity from the large variety of oils on offer and the large group of players, the market created benchmarks.

2. Benchmarks are critical in defining the spot value of crude, help determine the price for crude oil sold under term contracts, are the basis for hedging and risk management and attract lots of managed money to oil markets.

3. Over time, Brent in the North Sea evolved as the global benchmark — the oil price for all to see. Brent is “the price of oil.” It is the Brent price that allows other grades in various regions to determine their own value quickly, based on price relationships that different grades have established over time. In North America, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a benchmark. In the Middle East, Dubai and Oman are benchmarks. They all essentially trade at a differential to Brent.

4. The oil market is relatively young and still evolving; its spot pricing mechanism is even younger. The spot market for oil, which is at the basis of all price discovery, has only developed since the early 1980s. Supporting the development of the spot market was the rise of benchmark grades. As they provided the quick reference price level for similar crude oils, benchmarks helped a rise in market liquidity.

5. The spot market, which captures 40% of internationally traded crude oil, is essentially trading oil cargoes for immediate delivery. That way, the spot market allocates scarce or abundant supplies in an economically efficient manner. A key characteristic of the spot market is that it is pricing the marginal barrel of oil available. The last trade sets the price of oil. That way, the market reflects demand and supply.

6. The benchmark status of Brent and WTI is supported by their highly liquid electronic futures exchanges. Brent advanced as the global benchmark from 2010 after WTI price dislocations, due mainly to pipeline constraints.

7. It is the relationship between the physical and paper markets where price discovery takes place. In the interaction between the ICE Brent Futures contracts and the physical market in the North Sea, the world settles on “the price of oil.” In the end, oil prices are the result of supply and demand. To get there, all the players in the market have their say: producers, consumers, refiners, physical traders, banks, funds, and other types of investors that see oil as a tool to express their market expectations. Because of its strategic importance, crude oil has always had political overtones beyond its economic value.

It is the value of the refined products that ultimately determines the value of the crude oil that makes them. If a crude oil is good at making gasoline, and gasoline has a strong value that will make this crude oil attractive to buy and refine.

The basic concept is straightforward, but the actual process to assess the value of crude oil involves an intricate maze of steps and decisions. The consumer sends signals to refineries about what products are needed. A refinery then shops around and buys, at the best available price, the crude oil that can make the product. Sometimes that crude oil is at the other side of the world.

Refiners need meaningful price signals to quickly assess the value of a crude. Those signals come from the oil spot market where around 40 million barrels move around every day. To distil price clarity from the large variety of oils on offer and the large group of players, the market created benchmarks. They represent a reference level for crudes of roughly the same quality in the same location.

Over time, Brent in the North Sea evolved as the global benchmark - the oil price for all to see. Brent is “the price of oil.” It is the Brent price that allows other grades in various regions to determine their own value quickly, based on price relationships that different grades have established over time. In North America, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a benchmark and it still has a wide appeal beyond its region for the liquid futures contract market. In the Middle East, Dubai and Oman are benchmarks. They all essentially trade at a differential to Brent.

Https://www.theice.com/why-the-world-needs-benchmarks-and-characteristics-of-benchmarks
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Posted at 01/12/2022 09:08 by mount teide
Why 2023 Is Likely To See Much Higher Oil Prices - Alex Kimani /Oilprice.com today

* Oil traders have been cautious amid a new wave of COVID-19 in China.

* The oil markets flip-flopped mid-week to refocus on the pending EU ban on seaborne Russian oil and a G7 price cap on Urals crude next week.

* Many oil analysts see higher crude prices in 2023 as pent-up demand from China could strengthen oil fundamentals in 2023.

'Earlier this week, oil prices plunged to 2022 lows as energy markets panicked about demand amid COVID chaos in China that has resulted in an unexpected and extraordinary manifestation of street protests and even calls for Chinese President Xi Jinping to step down.

The market’s response to this, according to Rystad Energy, was an overreaction. Rystad believes that China’s zero-COVID policy and its new wave of lockdowns to counter a surge in new cases will have only a minor impact on its short-term oil demand.

Indeed, the market is sentimental and fickle these days, with volatility running at an all-time high. By Wednesday, oil prices were trending in the opposite direction with just as much zeal.

Suddenly forgetting its China fears despite a worsening COVID situation there, the oil markets flip-flopped mid-week to refocus on the pending EU ban on seaborne Russian oil and a G7 price cap on Urals crude next week. Gains would have been even higher were it not for rumours of OPEC+ preparing for more output cuts.

The oil markets are trading on the day’s news, and have been since earlier this year. Unable to grasp true fundamentals. Fundamentals are now a moving target thanks to Russia’s war on Ukraine, the renewed power to control the markets by OPEC+, an uncooperative American shale industry and China’s zero-COVID policy.

Wall Street is in a state of disarray, and for commodities traders, it’s either boom or bust, on a day-to-day basis.

The volatility would be far greater without OPEC, the expanded cartel suggests. In a new study published by KAPSARC (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center), during the height of the COVID pandemic, OPEC reduced oil price volatility by 50% due to the management of its spare capacity. OPEC intervention, the report claims, boosted average oil prices during the pandemic from $18 to $54 per barrel. Now, this is serving as a justification for OPEC+’s recent decision to cut output at a time when Washington was gunning for a production increase to bring prices down.

True to form, OPEC rumours likely succeeded mid-week in calming the reversal of losses in oil price once the market decided to drop its Monday fears coming out of China and refocus on Russian oil.

So what about Wall Street?

As the Wall Street Journal notes, Wall Street is overall bullish on oil, even if that is not necessarily reflecting current prices. It’s a case of “mind the gap”.

There is a clear belief that oil prices will be much higher in 2023.

Goldman Sachs forecast $110 oil for next year, but recognizes the uncertainty. On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs’ Jeff Currie, global head of commodities, said that recent downgrades to oil prices were because of the dollar and China.

“First and foremost, it was the dollar. What is the definition of inflation? Too much money chasing … too few goods,” Currie told CNBC.

And on China’s COVID situation, Currie said “it’s big”. “It’s worth more than the OPEC cut for the month of November, let’s put it in perspective. And then the third factor is Russia is just pushing barrels on the market right now before the December 5th deadline for the export ban.”

JP Morgan now forecasts $90 oil for 2023, down from its earlier forecast of $98, “on the grounds that Russian production will fully normalize to pre-war levels by mid-2023”.

Rystad Energy also thinks the recent oil price plunge based on Chinese demand is overblown.

While it is true that in November, OPEC and the IEA both reduced their 2023 oil demand growth estimates because of what is happening in China, Rystad believes it will have far less impact than the market panic of Monday suggested.

"Oil markets may be misjudging news of China’s lockdown," said Claudio Galimberti, senior vice president at the Norway-based consultancy, as reported by Bloomberg.

The latest curbs “appear to be mimicking previous ones, with nationwide road traffic only marginally affected while selected provinces undergoing comparatively severe lockdowns try to suppress Covid outbreaks”.

While street protests continued in China and daily infection rates surged beyond 40,000 by Tuesday, the overall effect is not worth a 4% plunge in oil prices, as we saw on Monday. And Wall Street seems to view this as a mere “gap” and not a long-term situation that will keep oil prices from JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs’ $98-$110 ranges next year.

Brent crude delivered in August next year has a 46% probability of settling more than $20 higher than its current price, WSJ notes.

China could actually end up being the icing on the oil price cake. It’s like saving up for a surge.

“The pent-up demand out of China is going to be enormous. “That could swing demand by at least a million barrels a day, and that could easily make the difference between an oil price forecast of $95 to $105 versus $120 to $130. Easily,” Amrita Sen, director of research for Energy Aspects, told WSJ.'
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Posted at 28/11/2022 14:09 by mount teide
Continue to read plenty of high quality research on the oil market, but seen little to argue against the Saudi's view's, which is one that some of us have been writing about and investing accordingly since 2017. That what will be driving the oil market and global energy crisis over the rest of this decade is the catastrophic collapse in E&P Capex since 2014. EVERYTHING ELSE IS JUST BACKGROUND NOISE BY COMPARISON.

Of course, as Jeff Currie at Goldman explained well, future oil price movement will not be straight up but, broadly follow a pattern as in past periods of supply tightness that are structural(created by a lack of investment)......they will be a series of spikes up and down from a high floor price.

Consequently, aș a long term investor in an oil market that has been starved of investment since 2014, have been using recent oil price weakness to add to my O&G and shipping positions.

However, been a little disappointed not to have got more 'value'.

Seems the reason for this is that more of the mainstream investment market has now spotted, something some of us have been writing about for 9 months, that even at $75 oil, the now super lean oil producers have already proved they can still deliver all time record levels of FCF.


Something that analyst Alex Kimani at Oilprice.com has been writing about this week:

Oil Stocks Are Showing A Peculiar Disconnect From Crude Prices

* Oil prices are showing a peculiar disconnect with energy stocks.

* The current disconnect hasn’t been seen since 2006.

* Shareholders remain bullish on the energy sector as firms continue to pay strong dividends.


'Oil stocks have continued to show a peculiar disconnect from the commodity they track, with oil equities staging a powerful rally even as oil prices have fallen sharply since the last OPEC meeting.

Over the past two months, the energy sector’s leading benchmark, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA: XLE), has climbed 34% while average crude spot prices have declined 18%. XLE now boasts a 61.2% return in the year-to-date, the best of any U.S. market sector.

According to Bespoke Investment Group via the Wall Street Journal, the current split marks the first time since 2006 that the oil and gas sector has traded within 3% of a 52-week high while the WTI price retreated more than 25% from its respective 52-week high. It’s also only the fifth such divergence since 1990.

The U.S. oil majors have not disappointed, either: over the past two months, Exxon Mobil Corp. has gained 35.3%; Chevron Corp. is up 30.6%, ConocoPhillips has climbed 30.1%, Phillips 66 has rallied 45.3% while Marathon Petroleum Corp has returned 40.3%. This trend rings true even for shorter timeframes, with all the stocks here being in the green over the past five trading sessions with the exception of COP which is down 0.5%.

There’s a method to the madness, though.

Strong Earnings

Robust earnings by energy companies are a big reason why investors are still flocking to oil stocks.

Third quarter earnings season is nearly over, but so far it’s shaping up to be better-than-feared. According to FactSet’s earnings insights, for Q3 2022, 94% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 2022 earnings, of which 69% have reported a positive EPS surprise and 71% have reported a positive revenue surprise.

The Energy sector has reported the highest earnings growth of all eleven sectors at 137.3% vs. 2.2% average by the S&P 500.

At the sub-industry level, all five sub-industries in the sector reported a year-over-year increase in earnings: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing (302%), Integrated Oil & Gas (138%), Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (107%), Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (91%), and Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation (21%).

Energy is also the sector that has most companies beating Wall Street estimates at 81%. The positive revenue surprises reported by Marathon Petroleum ($47.2 billion vs. $35.8 billion), Exxon Mobil ($112.1 billion vs. $104.6 billion), Chevron ($66.6 billion vs. $57.4 billion), Valero Energy ($42.3 billion vs. $40.1billion), and Phillips 66 ($43.4 billion vs. $39.3 billion) were significant contributors to the increase in the revenue growth rate for the index since September 30.

Even better, the outlook for the energy sector remains bright. According to a recent Moody's research report, industry earnings will stabilize overall in 2023, though they will come in slightly below levels reached by recent peaks.

The analysts note that commodity prices have declined from very high levels earlier in 2022, but have predicted that prices are likely to remain cyclically strong through 2023. This, combined with modest growth in volumes, will support strong cash flow generation for oil and gas producers. Moody’s estimates that the U.S. energy sector’s EBITDA for 2022 will clock in at $$623B but fall to $585B in 2023.

The analysts say that low capex, rising uncertainty about the expansion of future supplies and high geopolitical risk premium will, however, continue to support cyclically high oil prices. Meanwhile, strong export demand for U.S. LNG will continue supporting high natural gas prices.

In other words, there simply aren’t better places for people investing in the U.S. stock market to park their money if they are looking for serious earnings growth. Further, the outlook for the sector remains bright.

Whereas oil and gas prices have declined from recent highs, they are still much higher than they have been over the past couple of years hence the ongoing enthusiasm in the energy markets. Indeed, the energy sector remains a huge Wall Street favorite, with the Zacks Oils and Energy sector being the top-ranked sector out of all 16 Zacks Ranked Sectors.

Share Buybacks

Further, earnings in the sector are likely to remain high due to high levels of share buybacks. Oil and gas supermajors are on course to repurchase their shares at near-record levels this year thanks to soaring oil and gas prices helping them to deliver bumper profits and boost returns for investors.

According to data from Bernstein Research, the seven supermajors are poised to return $38bn to shareholders through buyback programmes this year, with investment bank RBC Capital Markets putting the total figure even higher, at $41bn.

In 2014, when oil was trading over $100/barrel, we only saw $21 billion in buybacks. This year’s figure easily outpaces the 2008 number.

But here’s another interesting thing: Big Oil’s capex and production have remained mostly flat despite reporting record second-quarter profits.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that Big Oil companies have mostly downshifted both capital spending and production for the second-quarter. An EIA review of 53 public U.S. gas and oil companies, responsible for about 34% of domestic production, showed a 5% decline in capital expenditures in the second-quarter vs. Q1 this year.

Cheap Energy Stocks

Another surprising finding: energy stocks remain cheap despite the huge runup. Not only has the sector widely outperformed the market, but companies within this sector remain relatively cheap, undervalued, and come with above-average projected earnings growth.

Key Metrics for O&G Sector

PE
8.19 - Energy
16.42 - S&P 500

Peg Ratio
0.58 - Energy
1.89 - S&P 500

Proj EPS Growth
95.62% - Energy
6.38 - S&P 500
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Posted at 18/11/2022 14:18 by mount teide
The Myth of High Oil Prices

It's all politically motivated by the failed economic policies of politicians in the West.

We know the best run oil companies today are extremely profitable at $75 Brent, as demonstrated by the all time record free cash flows the majors reported in Q4/2021.

Even without the huge impact shock to oil supply of Russia invading Ukraine, global oil production growth was always going to be severely constrained throughout this decade by the catastrophic circa 65% reduction in E&P Capex Investment since the oil price collapse in 2014( after averaging circa $110/bbl for 5 years before adjustment for inflation).


Historical Oil Prices:

$190/bbl - 2008 / Brent all time high price adjusted for inflation
$147/bbl - 2008 / Brent all time high price - inflation unadjusted

$122/bbl - Average Brent price between 2011 and 2015 - inflation adjusted
$105/bbl - Average Brent price between 2011 and 2015 - inflation unadjusted

$113/bbl - Average Brent price from 2008 GFC to 2015 - inflation adjusted
$98/bbl - Average Brent price from 2008 GFC to 2015 - inflation unadjusted

$91/bbl - Average Brent price from 2008 GFC to 2021 - inflation adjusted
$79/bbl - Average Brent price from 2008 GFC to 2021 - inflation unadjusted

$70/bbl - Brent spot price when the Biden Administration were screaming in Q4/2021 for OPEC+ to do something about "high oil prices" !

During the recession that started in 2000, the Ftse fell 50% by 2003 and was still in correction territory some 20% down by 2006.

The counter cyclical commodity and shipping market bottomed in 2000 and by 2006 had seen oil go up by 205% and copper by 370% - many high quality, recession leaned, low operating cost, oil and copper sector equities leveraged to these price increases, went on to 10 bag or more.

The Baltic Dry Index(cost to ship commodities around the world) first peaked in this century in 2004 at 366% up, going on to make an all time high in 2008 at 823% up. Oil went on to peak in 2008 at 539% up and copper in 2010 some 574% up. A commodity and shipping sector recession then ensued until 2017, quickly followed the the Covid Global Pandemic, during which the BDI dropped 98%, oil 83% and copper 65% peak to trough.

After bouncing back in 2021, I'm expecting oil, copper and nat gas pricing to remain strong for most of the rest of this decade and for each of the attached by the hip, three main shipping sectors to have their 'day' in the sun too....and their equities (leveraged off the price of their production and charter rates) to perform even more strongly, regardless as to whether we have a long overdue recession in the West to correct inflated property and tech and general equity market asset prices as in the early 2000's.

AIMHO/DYOR
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Posted at 17/11/2022 17:56 by ashkv
Not so the low guidance being the more likely outcome implies that no restart for Montara in 2022!

Surprised JSE didn't mention cash in hand - must be running quite low given the RNS detailing upcoming liftings (also rather shady of JSE not to mention their net % of the liftings as if I didn't know better reading the RNS would have me believing that JSE are 100% beneficiaries of the liftings)...

I will only buy sub 65p - as otherwise risk reward is not adequate... Buy SQZ and HBR - even with windfall taxes they are literally going for free. SQZ nearly 70% cash at current share price...

bradvert
17 Nov '22 - 11:26 - 11532 of 11541
0 6 0
“While the Company remains unable to advise on a restart date for Montara, based on the tank inspection activity to date it reaffirms an intent to remain

within the lower end of the production guidance range”


A close reading of this sentence surely implies they expect production to resume this side of the year end, as otherwise Montara or tank inspections would not be relevant to final y/e production?


At the same time I understand why they can’t explicitly give a resumption date as its not in their gift, it’s down to DNV then NOPSEMA.
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Posted at 01/11/2022 08:14 by mrscruff
Share price down -20.11% YTD while all other cash rich producers are in positive. Hoping this is the start of good news flow that would seriously add to our wealth perhaps even through dividends. I do think all types of investors should set expectations that these are old oil equipment and we really should not be falling so hard on hick ups and also rising to a target of 200p this year as was the old trend... a new less steep trend would be preferred but still multiple of current share price.

You may be wondering what I am blathering on about adding nothing new to a well informed about fundamentals forum. The point is that it doesn't matter how good or bad a revenue generating company is. What matters is the price you pay and that you pay this price during a period where net sellers have given up and left. When there are more sellers than buyers the share price drops to a level where there are equal buyers. Those buyers are like me.
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Posted at 28/10/2022 10:43 by ashkv
Wow - huge buyback activity yest / 27 October.

JSE should let the share price fall to the 40s / 50s and buy even more shares at a cheaper price... pull back will be even sweeter when/if JSE get Montara back online... also gives believers a chance to average down.

Suspend Buybacks for a week... and let the market price JSE...

Date of purchase:


27 October 2022

Aggregate number of Ordinary Shares purchased:


715,000

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/JSE/transaction-in-own-shares/15691731
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Posted at 06/10/2022 10:03 by moonshot3
The share buy back programme was announced on 2 August. Updated position at 6 Oct:

# Shares before buy back on 2 Aug = 466,053,616
# Shares bought back = 9,511,986
# Shares issued = 273,730
# Shares in issue = 456,815,360

The cost of the buy back to date is circa $8.6m, so with a cap of $25m, that leaves dry powder of circa $16.4m. At a share price of say 70p and X Rate of 1.13, JSE could buy back another 20m shares [20m x £0.70 x 1.13 = $15.8m]

So, after buy back, potentially JSE could have 436,815,360 shares in issue.

Roughly that would equate to buying back 6% + of the shares:

Bought back to date = 9,511,986
Potential additional buy back = 20,000,000
Total potential buy back = 29,511,986
Shares at 2 Aug = 466,053,616
Shares after potential full buy back = 436,815,360 (456,815,360 - 20,000,000)
Projected % bought back = 6% [29,511,986 / 466,053,616 x 100]
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Posted at 20/9/2022 11:42 by thommie
I have listened to the call as well. And ofc, I am as frustrated as everyone else here (including Paul Blakeley) that these corrosion problems did happen. And ofc I can understand the blames to management because of that general frustration. But tbh operating ageing fields and fpso's are more likely to bring those sorts of problems with them. So we all know of the risk that comes with it and still invested. On the other hand major spills and other problems can happen on new fpsos and new fields as well, so there is always that little probability that sth. might go wrong. So it would be better to judge over the management about how they react to those problems and solve them as you cant completely impede them of happening. We have talked so many times throughout the last 4 years on this BB about the high quality management of JSE and our believe in them to get things done properly. And i dont see that quality any different after the corossion problems on the Montara fpso happened. It's still the same people we admired before. So calm down a little bit and stay objective.
All that listened the call today know that the inspection program of tanks that they have carried out before didnt show any signs that could have led them to changing their inspection program. Paul also stated that they just reinspected a tank (I dont remember the number) they did inspect some years ago and didnt find any change to the good conditions they encountered in the first inspection. Meaning everyone of us would have thought, that the condition of the other tanks were similar. So I just dont see a major mistake. And we have to remember one bad thing about this fpso which I realised in the call. The whole problem could have been that the accomodation space for workers is small and very limited compared to other fpso's. Why? Because if you remember right we had COVID for the last 2 years, which meant 2 things: Capex was reduced to minimal lvls to withstand the storm. And manning power of the fpsos was reduced even further to limit a possible COVID infection round on the fpso. All that surely must have led to defered inspections, etc. So if that didnt happen JSe might have inspected those tanks many months before (you have to know, that they were planning to inspect tank 2c (where the minor oil spill in June happened in July/August). And ofc they would have found the leak and repaired it. The cofferdam is in place since yesterday and the work for final repair can start now.
The leak at tanks 5c/4s just to clarify was between those tanks, not in both tanks down to the sea. Thats why they were able to fix this hole already and dont need a cofferdam to fix the hole without risking another spill if sth. goes wrong(you can see the before/after picture in the presentation on page 11).
Btw it's super interesting to see these tanks, never saw it before...

So atm they are working with 3 crews to do the work on 3 tanks simultaneously, but that doesnt allow to have production crews on board due to the limited accomodation space. They plan to get ahead of the inspection planned and to also carryout work that was planned during a shutdown of the fpsos at end 22/early 23.
If those tanks are repaired it's all they would need to reinstate production, they also would have the possibility to do smaller cargoes (instead of the usual 450k bbls cargo, do half sizes). They could then still go on inspecting the tanks they havent visited during the shutdown.

Jse is in a good position with a decent cash buffer to withstand this problems. I'm sure about it. Sometimes I get frustrated that I didnt sell my shares at 110p in the summer. But then I realize, that even this low share price atm doesnt change anything for me, as I wouldnt have sold any shares anyway. so till montara is back up again the share price will be muted, but it will regain the losses soon after. And who knows what M&A we will be faced with next.

In opposition to many of you I am very positive about the statement made about maari. I dont see why it is bad that the regulator wants to negotiate different terms into the contract between OMV and JSE. All of you are afraid that they wanna change the effective date. But why should they do that? that would be an own goal. The main concern for the new zealand government regarding this transaction was always that seeing a big player of oil and gas (OMV) with a big pocket of money leaving the liabilities and future decomissioning costs into the hand of a small player like JSE after experiencing the bancruptcy in a similar transaction of the buyer, that lead the problem that the government was faced with high decomissioning costs of the Tui field (if I remember it right?). So they want to make sure that this doesnt happen again. So the big cheque JSE has aquired since the economic effectife date of 1st January 2019 will only help to reduce the risk that this happends again. That's why I dont see why you think that the regulators wanna change anything into a smaller amount of money due to JSE. But obviously they are not interested that hit sbig amount of money flows to other operations of JSE where things could go wrong and lead to bancruptcy of JSE which would mean a rerepetition of the Tui debacle. So I'm more or less sure that they try to implement sth. like JSE has to do with the Northwest shelf aquisition in australia that recently got announced where they have to save the complete expected future decomissioning costs for their share of the field into a bank account where the money cant be touched again. I dont know how big the surplus after paying the transaction price for maari is atm. But I remember a number of around 50m at the end of 2021 due to JSE on the completion of the transaction. With high oil prices during 2022 it will have gotten even bigger! So not knowing the exact decomissioning costs of maari in the future, I would guess, that if JSE agrees on putting let's say 75-100m into such an account for future decomissioning (which wouldnt cost them any cash they hold in hand) the regulator would give green light to the transaction. I see this as the only way to go forward, as OMV wont agree on different terms that will make them responsible for decomissioning costs in the future if JSE wouldnt be able to pay for them.

The malaysian assets already had such a fund for decomissioning costs, where the JV had to pay a specific amount on a regular basis, which led the the case that when JSe took over the assets from OMV around 80% of all future decomissioning costs were already paid for...

And though we all are afraid, that the recent montara problems could lead to the impression in new zealand and elsewhere, that JSE is the reason for the problems ofc it isnt. But JSE with their approach to shut in production (which they werent forced to) on their own to do the things right instead of fast actions that may not be that reliable in my view shows them that they are capable of managing these sort of problems - and that's all it is about. It's not like the majors do have less problems or spills, etc. But it's about the trust in a company to be capable of dealing with this problems in a proper way. And in my view JSE is showing that they are capable of doing it atm.
I dont see any problems for the aquisition of the NW Shelf assets, as this is non operated. But as stated JSE tries to get more WI on that specific asset, which means such a transaction will only be approved by the NOPSEMA if JSE acts in a capable way at Montara now.
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Posted at 20/9/2022 10:31 by ashkv
Brent: $92.50
Brent Current Price Performance vs 18 Aug 2021 low of $65.33 (GBPUSD 1.36): 41.59%
SP: 70
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 70p on 13 Sep 2022: 0.00%
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 110p on 9 June 2022: -36.36%
Shares Outstanding: 463,480,770
GBPUSD: 1.145
Production Guidance 2022 (11000-13000): 12,000
Estimated Current Production Excluding Montara (Comprising Production from Stag, NW Shelf And Malaysian Assets): 9,577
Production with NW Shelf 14,077
Production with Maari (4,500-4,700bpd):16,600
Production May 2022 (Average):17,000
Debt: Zero Debt
Cash (USD) Proforma Figures 30 June 2022: $161,100,000
Market Cap (GBP); £324,436,539
Market Cap (USD): $371,479,837
Cash % of Market Cap: 43.37%
Share Price Cash Component: 30.36p
ENTERPRISE VALUE (USD): $210,379,837
EV/Barrel(USD) Low-Guidance 2022: $17,532
EV/Barrel(USD) Estimated H2 Production Excluding Montara:$21,967
EV/Barrel(USD) with NW Shelf 2022 [2,077 bbls/d net]:$14,945
EV/Barrel(USD) with Maari Production: $12,673
EV/Barrel(USD) May 2022 Average Production: $12,375
Decommissioning Expense (Asset Restoration - FY 2021 Results): $404,000,000
EV/Barrel(USD) LG + Decommisioning Expense Including NW Shelf: $43,644
Dividend / Tenders / Buy Back for 2022: $100,000,000
Net Payout Yield (NPY = Div + Buybacks + Tender) : 26.92%
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