BEIJING, Jan. 25,
2025 /PRNewswire/ -- On January 12, 2025, the "The 15th Launch of
Forecasting & Prospects Research Reports on Energy Economy" was
held in Beijing. The conference
was hosted by Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research
of Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing Laboratory for System
Engineering of Carbon Neutrality. Eight research reports were
released to the public.
The series of reports are from the targeted research results on
specific topics based on changes in international and domestic
energy economics and climate policy situations over the previous
year, performed by the research team led by distinguished Professor
Yi-Ming Wei. Since 2011, these
reports have been published by Beijing Institute of Technology
annually for 15 consecutive years, garnering widespread
attention.
Professor Yi-Ming Wei, Director
of Beijing Laboratory for System Engineering of Carbon Neutrality,
presided over the meeting and introduced the attending experts.
Professor Ben-Cong Wang, Vice
President of Beijing Institute of Technology, also attended the
meeting and delivered a speech. He pointed out that the series of
forecasting and prospects research reports on energy economy
closely align with the national strategic needs for energy and
carbon emission reduction, accurately focusing on major
cutting-edge issues such as energy security, energy markets, and
low-carbon development. These reports have received enthusiastic
responses and widespread acclaim from various sectors of society.
Professor Hua Liao, Director of the Center for Energy and
Environmental Policy Research, introduced the overall situation
about the release event, reviewed the energy economic situation of
2024, and forecasted the key development trends for energy economy
in 2025. Subsequently, Professor Qiao-Mei
Liang and Professor Bi-Ying Yu respectively chaired the
other release of the research reports.
I. Macroeconomic Trends in Energy Economics
In 2025, the energy economics will act as a "stabilizer" for the
new normal of macroeconomic development. Wind power and
photovoltaic sectors will exhibit strong momentum, while biomass
and hydropower will reveal new potential. Advancing clean,
low-carbon initiatives and promoting coordinated industry
development serve as the dual engines driving the rise of the
energy economy.
II. Energy Market Development
In 2025, the growth in global crude oil demand lags behind
supply, increasing downward pressure on oil prices. Geopolitical
conflicts and major power rivalries continue to disrupt the market,
leading to heightened short-term oil price volatility. The average
prices of Brent and WTI crude oil are expected to range between
$67–$77 per barrel and $62–$72 per barrel, respectively. Since
2011, the price index of key raw materials for the energy
transition has shown fluctuating trends without a long-term upward
trajectory or sustained high levels. Its volatility has been lower
than that of the energy price index.
III. Energy Technology and Industrial Development
The carbon threshold regulations proposed by the EU's New
Battery Law may cause huge economic losses and unemployment risks
for both China and the EU. If the
EU expands its lithium battery production and processing capacity
to make up for the supply gap, it will also lead to great risks of
capital and labor shortages, driving up battery production and
usage costs, which would be detrimental to the development of both
regions. Carbon capture technologies involve complex processes,
diverse carbon sources, high technical intensity, and significant
capital requirements, making them key factors in determining CCUS
project investment and deployment. During the 15th Five-Year
Plan period, it is crucial to focus on low energy consumption,
low costs, and high efficiency while advancing fundamental
research, technology development, equipment manufacturing,
integrated demonstration, and industrial cultivation to
comprehensively enhance China's
carbon capture technology and core competitiveness. Driven by the
digital economy, the electricity consumption of the data centers
will account for 4.85% of the total electricity consumption of the
whole society in 2030, and data centers also have the flexibility
potential of tens of thousands of megawatts. In the future, the
synergy among computing power, electricity and heat will become an
important scenario for the integration of information and energy
under the development pattern of carbon peaking and carbon
neutrality.
IV. Global Climate Governance
Advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) across natural
language understanding, deep learning, and multimodal information
processing have introduced new research paradigms for climate
change governance. Moving forward, strengthening AI applications
and promoting interdisciplinary integration will be essential to
addressing climate challenges. After three years of continuous
development, China's national
carbon market has made significant progress. A comprehensive
regulatory framework has gradually taken shape, incentive and
constraint mechanisms have been initially established, and emission
reduction effects have begun to emerge.
Representatives from 30 media outlets, including China Media
Group and People's Daily Online, covered the press conference. A
total of approximately 3000 participants from various sectors of
society attended the event both online and offline.
Download address of full report:
https://ceep.bit.edu.cn/zxcg/ndycbg/index.htm
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SOURCE Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research of
Beijing Institute of Technology
