Shaftesbury Share Discussion Threads

[hindsight] 14/6/2021 10:25

Residential, any views on Grainger ?

[konradpuss] 13/6/2021 19:27

nickel, so where is the value?

I think the 'last mile' and logistics are well over valued. Retail - catch a falling knife. offices - well I cannot answer that one as yet - it goes into the too difficult pile.

I am sure there is some value still in residential property - no bargain mind.

It's all subject to the big caveat - when is cheap money going to end?

[nickrl] 13/6/2021 17:55

Konrad spot on but there are a few others REITs in a similar position but telling thing for me are the ones where directors never purchase because the share options are so lucrative they even manage to payout when the business has been trashed by a pandemic.

I also see on the bigger favoured REITs there has been little movement by big shareholders to sell down during the pandemic and given many are now on sustainable payouts its probably suits them to have some level of income so share price unlikely to shift until one of them decides the games up and there's better value elsewhere.

[konradpuss] 13/6/2021 15:32

Agreed nickel, however on your view of the valuation of the portfolio and therefore the share price I wonder if Capco have the 'bottle' to bid? O.K. you said they provide a 'floor' to the share price. As an aside I think I put my 'buy' price here at circa two quid - perhaps a little harsh but very possible due to the gearing and fall in rents.

I cannot see the current 'sound bite' well over paid Chief Executive of Shaftesbury rolling over without a fight as he would be out of a job if Capco took over. The Capco management would know doubt wish to rule the roost.

Sammy runs the Langham Estate with very few people - probably modestly paid.

Just look at what the management take at Shaftesbury to send out a few rent demands and pontificate on 'curating'. They need to get real, cut costs and do something entrepreneurial. Just my humble opinion - I don't think Bickell does humble!

[nickrl] 13/6/2021 15:10

Konradpuss that along with lack of international tourism for a few years means rents have to fall but SHB are managing this via t/o rents which is probably sensible course of action if not only course. However, how much base rents they can guarantee isn't being visible is where I see huge uncertainty now over this and price is way too high imv. Again though CAPC interest will probably keep a floor under the price currently.

[konradpuss] 13/6/2021 11:46

I wonder what Sammy is thinking right now?

My view is that he did the right thing in selling his stake.

The first loss is the cheapest.

Essential I think the recent results and the 'COVID' factor are joined at the hip.

I speak to many people and many now will just not come into London. Why, well the congestion charge now seven days a week and ULEZ, parking charges etc. etc. It is no joy at all.

Things will have to become more affordable for many to return for a night out.

[essentialinvestor] 11/6/2021 13:12

Nick, thanks for the view, appreciated.

Inpatient hospital number peaked at just under 39,000 earlier this year,
we are close to 1,000 on the latest update, all be it there is a lag between new cases v admissions.

[nickrl] 11/6/2021 10:41

Hindsight hospital admissions following totally different trajectory to cases now but media focus on case numbers and are driving the narrative aided by those with a vested interest to see this go on forever. A deferral, or at least a scaling back of step 4, is all but inevitable i suspect despite data showing definitively that Step 3 with the unexpected arrival of the Delta variant hasn't caused anything close to what modellers predicted for Step 3 on its own.

Thing is moratorium is due off shortly and will this give them an excuse to kick the can down the road again or will we see a modification that at least hones the response to protect those that need protection and not those that have taken advantage.

SHB still overrated imv with voids on Oxford St at 17% this will take a while to pick up especially as inbound tourism will remain significantly depressed for the rest of this year. Suspect though CAPC interest will give it a better floor for time being.

[hindsight] 11/6/2021 08:15

Think key number to watch is H admissions of fully vaccinated
Starting to get more interested in SHB again, had sold some into bcpt, but like others they have risen strongly

[essentialinvestor] 10/6/2021 22:52

* COVID cases increasing again.

[konradpuss] 10/6/2021 19:47

A bit of a step down in the share price today. Perhaps a delayed reaction to their recent figures.

[konradpuss] 28/5/2021 16:50

Essential, I do not see a bid however a gradual closure of the deep discount to NAV although you never know. Gyllenhammar usually likes friendly management to work with - none of that there!

What's your 'buy' price on Shaftesbury - I think you know mine.

[essentialinvestor] 28/5/2021 14:26

konrad, looks like a sitting duck for a bid?.

I hold a small amount.

[konradpuss] 25/5/2021 19:22

Essential, Peter Gyllenhammar got in at circa £2.00.

[essentialinvestor] 25/5/2021 19:14

Hi konrad, thanks.

[konradpuss] 25/5/2021 18:27

Essential, you might look at Palace Capital.

The NAV has further to fall. Just walk around the West End.

[essentialinvestor] 25/5/2021 18:03

Hi Nick, are you seeing anything that looks attractive in the sector atm?.

[nickrl] 25/5/2021 17:43

EI they got well ahead of themselves and they dropped off my interest for a short as well but wasn't paying attention to when the results were out so missed an opportunity.

An Aussie mob Resolution Capital Limited have picked up 5% off someone as per RNS but bought on 12th May so there down a few quid already.



Edit: just looked at results presentation NAV has taken another big tumble but at least its probably realistic now. ERV worth another 30% seems optimistic to me especially as offices are 50% of it. Only time will tell.

[essentialinvestor] 25/5/2021 12:52

Diabolical, as expected.

Problem is NAV now around the current SP, so buying at this level is
a play on future NAV progression (no discount ) And/ Or a potential bid.

[nickrl] 25/2/2021 23:42

Mr Market doesn't seem too bothered about the situation. Im not convinced myself but SHB are well funded currently and they have CAPC putting a prop under it as well so doubt they will drop back much from here given poor rental income.

[konradpuss] 25/2/2021 21:34

What a terrible rent collection percentage in the update today.

What will happen when landlords can enforce their rights? More vacancies.

I think the government will move this date until mid summer, the magic date from Boris me thinks.

[hindsight] 17/2/2021 14:09

Sold some and added it to bcpt and sere, time will tell

[hindsight] 17/2/2021 10:49

The two big holders should resist any recalibration, which imagine has already partly happened due to the rights issue. But maybe they are on similar deals
Raised to buy by Jefferies today

[nickrl] 15/2/2021 17:39

He's not the only CEO that is sitting there taking stonking salaries and the next thing we will see is recalibration of the performance schemes as there all out the money currently and that can't be permitted otherwise they will leave for a better job!

[konradpuss] 14/2/2021 21:03

Essential, I see the great over paid chief executive of Shaftesbury is reported as saying on the one hand turn over rents are good and on the other hand tourists will not return to the estate for two years in numbers.

What would I do if I were the CEO? Double down by doing another major rights issue and then buying some vacant bargains or perhaps liquidate.

He is just sitting there drawing his big fat salary which is not deserved giving interviews to the Telegraph.

How much nouse does it take to send out a few rent demands every quarter?

If I was not busy I would offer to do his job for free. Not sure my C.V. is up to it mind!