Shaftesbury Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 12/8/2020 22:03

SHB would have no issue raising funds, if the very worst transpired.

They would be absolutely loath to do that because of likely NAV dilution.

And it may also allow a predator to swoop - not necessarily Capco.


COVID is key to SHB prospects (domestic and international tourism). Although I expect we may be facing a

grim autumn/winter, would hope widely available vaccine options will be in place

Within 12 months - Russia already had the basis of their COVID vaccine

from previous Ebola research.


Even with a vaccine, higher unemployment levels will be with us for years, so the clock is

not going to be reset to December 2019, need to be realistic on that. It's very likely to be a tough 2/3 years.

[nickrl] 12/8/2020 20:20

Konradpuss for sure if only base rent is used for covenant tests which initially is the only certainty. Lenders will continue to cut propcos slack whilst market is distressed imo unless they reckon theres a deal to be had.

[konradpuss] 12/8/2020 19:43

Essential and nickrl, Oh! yes. How did I over look that. Ever think you are repeating yourself? It must be age!

Nickrl, based on your 50% of previous ERV and a yield of say 4% I think you have a base line valuation.

If this comes to pass they will have all sorts of problems with their banking covenants.

[essentialinvestor] 12/8/2020 19:21

Konrad, Capco were not buying in the market, that was a second
part of the already announced acquisition from Lee, they required shareholder
approval due to the % holding in SHB - at least that's my understanding.

[nickrl] 12/8/2020 19:17

Konradpuss they acquired the shares off Samuel Tak Lee so shouldn't have to buy in market. AFIK they are are afflicted with same issues as CAPC and too many people have yet to accept that rents have become over inflated in some parts of London and without international tourism there not sustainable. Yes its great destination but so was Roman Londonium but without punters they have to cut there cloth to suit. SHB recognise this and are moving to t/o rents which is only viable option to keep occupancy up so its still an attractive destination but what base rent they will be able to get is yet to be revealed but sub 50% is my guesstimate.

[essentialinvestor] 12/8/2020 19:01

Around 5.74 was available on the bid yesterday. Probably back in under £5.

Some incredible recent volatility. Following the March plunge low of 4.62,
SHB bounced to near £7 in early June.

[konradpuss] 12/8/2020 18:32

Hindsight, I think you are thinking my valuation is extreme. If I have a moment I will work out the £ per sq.ft over the estate at my valuation. I don't do m.sq.!

My valuation is down to gearing and the reduced ERV of the portfolio.

Just look at the Cap Co. valuation decline in their release today.

Oh and I see Cap Co have increased their interest to over 25% in Shaftesbury.

I wondered who was buying to push up the price over the last few days.

[konradpuss] 12/8/2020 18:31

Hindsight, I think you are thinking my valuation is extreme. If I have a moment I will work out the £ per sq.ft over the estate at my valuation. I don't do m.sq.!

My valuation is down to gearing and the reduced ERV of the portfolio.

Just look at the Cap Co. valuation decline in their release today.

Oh and I see Cap Co have increased their interest to over 25% in Shaftesbury.

I wondered who was buying to push up the price over the last few days.

[essentialinvestor] 12/8/2020 16:45

Nick, spotted the recent buys thanks, however BOD holdings look
modest to me. That beimg said it's the same with SREI etc.

UK COVID cases over 1,000 for 2 consecutive days now, needs to be watched.

[nickrl] 12/8/2020 16:34

EI your amongst friends on SLI NED has hoovered up 120k over last week which is a real vote of confidence.

[essentialinvestor] 12/8/2020 15:50

Hi Nick, the uncertainty not helping sentiment.

Bought 20,000 SLI under 51.80 today, not tempted by much else in the sector atm.
SLI go XD for 0.7 tomorrow, from memory.

[nickrl] 12/8/2020 15:02

EI if only we knew that answer!! Property Federation and others are pushing HMG to go halves on outstanding rent but extending the moratorium costs HMG nothing and I doubt they will want to be seen to bailing people out directly. In reality rents will need resetting to keep tenants and some landlords know this but many also have bankers on there backs so are constrained. HMT/BoE has provided sufficient liquidity to facilitate adjustments to loans but market isn't sorting it so they need to bang heads together in my view.

[essentialinvestor] 12/8/2020 11:59

Nick, are we looking at another few Q's of moritorium roll overs?.

That's the main concern for me atm, how long will HMG let that run.

[essentialinvestor] 12/8/2020 11:56

Still above my badly timed sell price, although got out with a 12 pence profit
per share.

[essentialinvestor] 12/8/2020 09:11

Write up on the London commercial office market in yesterday's FT,
following the DLN update yesterday.


Having sold out of TRY, SLI and SREI, I've got very limited sector exposure left now.

I'm tempted to get back in to SLI, if anyone has a view on that Trust.

[nickrl] 12/8/2020 09:03

Shieldbug nice insight and CAPCO's interims today confirm your finding with NAV down 18% on its Covent Garden estate!!

Various footfall trackers aren't positive about London vs other regional cities although its trending up except the City of London which i can vouch for having been up there weekly for last two months and it remains as deserted as ever.

[shieldbug] 12/8/2020 07:47

Anecdotally - a recent evening visit to Soho to indulge in Rishi's half price dining offer - the area around Carnaby/Broadwick was buzzing with side roads closed off and filled with diners. Same with Chinatown. Not so Covent Garden Piazza which was pretty much lifeless.

Earlier as we walked through Golden Square I noticed a poster promoting Soho Summer Festival - which turns out to be promoted by Shaftesbury. It seems to be a relative success.

[hindsight] 12/8/2020 07:43

Hindsight the vaccine is 'sorted'. The Russians got there first - said with tongue firmly in cheek!

Yes after you konradpuss, but means some Russians will be vaccinated in London, especially 35 year old children, a group I would not suggest as they have a higher death rate from road accidents

At £2.12 what is the £ per M2 ?

[konradpuss] 12/8/2020 06:08

I was some what surprised yesterday with the optimism of the fellow presenting the Deloitte 'crane survey' and Derwent London. Both were talking up Central London offices.

Perhaps they should read what BP said yesterday. In some areas of the world they will be cutting up to 50% of their office accommodation - much more home working.

I guess they will retain all their London offices so everything will be just fine.

Essential you have my valuation £2.12. I am sure I will be wrong mind - it might be £2.10!

[essentialinvestor] 11/8/2020 23:12

Around £7.50 plus achievable within 3 years. £8.50 plus within 5 years, all imv only. I usually tend to be too cautious. Plenty of volatility along the way.

[nickrl] 11/8/2020 22:52

Problem with both CAPC & SHB is there highly leveraged to tourism and people working in London neither of which aint looking great right now. As i see it the office will come back with more flexi working so there will be some impairment to that passing trade. Bigger issue is tourism, especially overseas, as that needs aviation which is going through cataclysmic changes particularly long haul where capacity is being scaled back on a huge scale. Tourism is further exacerbated by fickle approach by countries over whether you may end needing to quarantine or not so when, or if, that comes back is a big cloud hanging these.

So question is is this in the price already?

[konradpuss] 11/8/2020 19:52

Hindsight the vaccine is 'sorted'. The Russians got there first - said with tongue firmly in cheek!

[hindsight] 11/8/2020 15:44

Vaccine options should be available next year. Recovery will be a multi year process.

Agree EI. How do you rate capco vs shb? Share chart doesnt seem to give capco anything for the earls court sale timing. May research capco a bit deeeper when time permits

[essentialinvestor] 11/8/2020 15:18

Added to CapCo today. Even if a bid for SHB does not materialise,
there is 50% plus upside in their SHB holding over the next 5 years imv.

Vaccine options should be available next year. Recovery will be a multi year process.

[hindsight] 10/8/2020 12:51

I agree, too many of these propcos run for the managements benefit, you would think they had invented some game changing intellectual property